***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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7:36a, 2/27/22
AG
This is a few hours old so sorry if repost

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Proc92
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7:40a, 2/27/22
Are there portable or man fired weapons that are used to counter artillery, maybe by tracking the arc of incoming rounds? Or is that really only possible with large systems?
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74OA
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7:41a, 2/27/22
AG
The Russian army is reverting to type. LOOTING
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stetson
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In reply to ttu_85 • 7:42a, 2/27/22
AG
ttu_85 said:
Eliminatus said:
ttu_85 said:

You have long been a good poster that have have enjoyed reading through the years. To be honest, I irritate the hell out of my friends and family and especially my wife with my cold pragmatic take on things. In this case its knowing the Russians always start poorly.

The mistakes they made in 1941 are unbelievably bad. Stupidity on a mass scale- see Stalin's purges and political appointments to the officer class. Mistakes what would have doomed most nations. The only thing that saved them was the massive size of their nation and that fact Stalin had millions of bodies to throw into the path of Germany's blitzkreig. One thing about Russians they can bleed and come back for more. Its something ingrained in their makeup. Weird I know.

Thing about Russia they will either throw in the towel early like they did in 1905 vs Japan or they will come back for more and more. Which Russia shows up. In 1905 the country was hit with the fist shock wave of Revolution. The Tsar was already in trouble. Here Russia is ruled by the grip of a tyrant that has proven to be shrewd and ruthless in much the same mold as Stalin. But unlike Stalin, a Georgian, BTW, Mother Russia's very existence is not on the line..

This last fact gives me hope. That the Russian people will not be so eager to bleed for Putin's cause of expanding the old Russian Empire. We will see. Especially given the fact Russia with an old declining population doesn't have that much blood to spill.



Aye, this is the question indeed.

If the Russia we fear shows up soon, I probably will be proven wrong. My thinking was of the efforts and ROE's that Russia has been exhibiting to this point. If they go full brutal Russia of the past, I will have to eat my prediction and hope for the best. If that Russia shows up, all we can do is hope. Still not sure NATO will step in even at that point.

The other caveat which I was thinking in that first post was logistics. CAN Russia sustain this very long? I have no idea, but I am questioning it now, which is a new territory for me from last week before they invaded. Even brutal Russia needs munitions. They are having trouble keeping their fuel levels up as is. No amount of propaganda can hide the fact they are taking losses, and probably heavy losses at that.

So many questions. But that is the point of this thread after all. Take in data and discuss what it could possibly mean both short and long term. As morbid as it sounds, and in full deference to the fighting and suffering occurring, I do find this stuff terribly fascinating and love discussing it.

Yep: "So many questions" I think that is why sports and yes, to be honest, war, fascinate us as a species. Patton once said war was one of mans greatest endeavors. I wish he was wrong. Unfortunately that is not the case. Up on the ashes of war come great innovations. The Civil War and WW2 are sad but undeniable proof of that.

and speaking of logistical basics:
Russia GDP 1.7T < Texas at 2.1T

Pop 145M with a staggeringly LOW pop growth rate of -7.2%
Birth rate 9.8 births/1,000 population (2021)
Death rate 16.7 deaths/1,000 population (2021)

Russia is in serious long term demographic trouble.

As far as the tactical mistakes those are a head scratcher
1. Leaving Ukrainian communications up- including the net.
2. NOT achieving air superiority
3. Many units running out of fuel on the first day WTF !!
4. Suck night fighting capability.
5. Reports of 16/17 year old conscripts. Where are the Russian pros. They have them why were they not deployed as a spearhead ?

So many questions

Wow. Appears that Russian mail order brides have taken their toll on Russia.
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BrokeAssAggie
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7:42a, 2/27/22
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74OA
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In reply to Proc92 • 7:43a, 2/27/22
AG
Proc92 said:
Are there portable or man fired weapons that are used to counter artillery, maybe by tracking the arc of incoming rounds? Or is that really only possible with large systems?
There are radars that can geolocate artillery by tracking rounds. That location is then attacked by other artillery or aircraft. FOR EXAMPLE
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Ferg
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7:43a, 2/27/22
Putin just put his Nuclear forces on Heighted alert. TRTWorld reporting it was announced in a press conference.

(Turkish English speaking news channel on an app called World News on Roku)
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TH36
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 7:48a, 2/27/22
BrokeAssAggie said:


If something like this truly does happen I hope Zelensky tells them something along the lines of what the 101st told the Nazis during the battle of the bulge. Short and sweet. Russia gets no demands at all. It's leave completely or nothing. At this point, screw giving them Crimea even. Leave or more of your childrens sent to fight will die and will die for years to come.
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Pinabobina
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7:49a, 2/27/22






I'm by no means an expert in military conflict, but this seems sus
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AgsMyDude
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7:50a, 2/27/22
AG




Bunk run incoming
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htownag10
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7:52a, 2/27/22
AG
This is absolutely incredible. I don't know who they are doing it but whatever they are doing. Keep doing it

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74OA
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In reply to Pinabobina • 7:53a, 2/27/22
AG
Pinabobina said:


I'm by no means an expert in military conflict, but this seems sus
Sounds like Russia is looking for a tactical pause so it can reset its logistics and renew the offensive, because there's no way Putin is backing down.

I hope Ukraine doesn't agree to a cease-fire while talks are ongoing. Keep the battlefield pressure on Russia.
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p_bubel
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7:53a, 2/27/22
This is not really strategically important, but I've always been fascinated with the plane and finally found some info. The AN-225 parked at Hostomel Airport near Kyiv is stated to still be intact despite the fighting for control over the past several days.

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Pinabobina
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In reply to 74OA • 7:54a, 2/27/22
I'm not a poster, more of a lurker, but I edited my post to add other updates that are within an hour of the peace talk post.

Is Russia looking for pause so Belarus can enter the war?
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SPSAg05
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In reply to p_bubel • 7:56a, 2/27/22
AG
p_bubel said:
This is not really strategically important, but I've always been fascinated with the plane and finally found some info. The AN-225 parked at Hostomel Airport near Kyiv is stated to still be intact despite the fighting for control over the past several days.

I've watched it land here at IAH before. It's so bafflingly big, your brain can't completely process that it's actually flying.....in the air.
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Pinabobina
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7:58a, 2/27/22


Man….. I dunno. Maybe they should have peace talks at a neutral location and not Belarus? Not an expert. Just a hunch.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to 74OA • 7:58a, 2/27/22
AG
74OA said:
Proc92 said:
Are there portable or man fired weapons that are used to counter artillery, maybe by tracking the arc of incoming rounds? Or is that really only possible with large systems?
There are radars that can geolocate artillery by tracking rounds. That location is then attacked by other artillery or aircraft. FOR EXAMPLE


Artillery when used properly in batteries is hard to engage with infantry type weapons. When used properly, the batteries are typically miles behind the Forward Line of Troops.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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AgLiving06
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In reply to 74OA • 7:59a, 2/27/22
74OA said:
Pinabobina said:


I'm by no means an expert in military conflict, but this seems sus
Sounds like Russia is looking for a tactical pause so it can reset its logistics and renew the offensive, because there's no way Putin is backing down.

I hope Ukraine doesn't agree to a cease-fire while talks are ongoing. Keep the battlefield pressure on Russia.

Tons of NATO weapons support is incoming, so the pause really should help them get those new assets in place.
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74OA
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 8:00a, 2/27/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
74OA said:
Proc92 said:
Are there portable or man fired weapons that are used to counter artillery, maybe by tracking the arc of incoming rounds? Or is that really only possible with large systems?
There are radars that can geolocate artillery by tracking rounds. That location is then attacked by other artillery or aircraft. FOR EXAMPLE


Artillery when used properly in batteries is hard to engage with infantry type weapons. When used properly, the batteries are typically miles behind the Forward Line of Troops.
All of which is consistent with what I posted?
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SPSAg05
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8:01a, 2/27/22
AG
Naive, uneducated question, but even if Vlad were demented enough to launch a nuke, what are the chances that it would even make it from point A to point B anywhere in the world without being taken out by some kind of defense system?
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hunter2012
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In reply to Pinabobina • 8:01a, 2/27/22
AG
I thought they already rejected Belarus for talks? This already seems like a concession. This makes me question the Ukes real fighting position...
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bigangrytexan
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In reply to p_bubel • 8:02a, 2/27/22
AG
p_bubel said:
This is not really strategically important, but I've always been fascinated with the plane and finally found some info. The AN-225 parked at Hostomel Airport near Kyiv is stated to still be intact despite the fighting for control over the past several days.

It's dead. I'm sorry to tell you. I watched them land at Al Asad dozens of times in Iraq.


USMC 0231, 2003-2008
OIF, OEF
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FarmerFran
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In reply to Pinabobina • 8:03a, 2/27/22
AG
Pinabobina said:


Man….. I dunno. Maybe they should have peace talks at a neutral location and not Belarus? Not an expert. Just a hunch.


It's on the Belarus border as I understand it. Besides if Russia pulls anything that is only going to ratify further support for the Ukrainians and their cause.
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lobopride
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In reply to SPSAg05 • 8:04a, 2/27/22
SPSAg05 said:
Naive, uneducated question, but even if Vlad were demented enough to launch a nuke, what are the chances that it would even make it from point A to point B anywhere in the world without being taken out by some kind of defense system?


As far as I know only small areas like Israel can be defended by an iron dome. I bet Washington DC is but few other places.

And then would an iron dome even work for this? It would still blow up close to its target. I guess it would depend on the size of warhead that was fired.
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74OA
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In reply to hunter2012 • 8:04a, 2/27/22
AG
hunter2012 said:
I thought they already rejected Belarus for talks? This already seems like a concession. This makes me question the Ukes real fighting position...
I haven't seen anything posted that says they're meeting inside Belarus.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to SPSAg05 • 8:05a, 2/27/22
SPSAg05 said:
Naive, uneducated question, but even if Vlad were demented enough to launch a nuke, what are the chances that it would even make it from point A to point B anywhere in the world without being taken out by some kind of defense system?


One would hope, because if not, and nothing is militarily don't to Russia itself, he'll fear nothing ever again.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to 74OA • 8:06a, 2/27/22
AG
74OA said:
JFABNRGR said:
74OA said:
Proc92 said:
Are there portable or man fired weapons that are used to counter artillery, maybe by tracking the arc of incoming rounds? Or is that really only possible with large systems?
There are radars that can geolocate artillery by tracking rounds. That location is then attacked by other artillery or aircraft. FOR EXAMPLE


Artillery when used properly in batteries is hard to engage with infantry type weapons. When used properly, the batteries are typically miles behind the Forward Line of Troops.
All of which is consistent with what I posted?


Absolutely thats why i included your post. His original question was 2 parts now he has some input on both.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to SPSAg05 • 8:06a, 2/27/22
SPSAg05 said:


Scrolling through the confiscated Russian soldiers' credentials.....those aren't the faces of warriors hell-bent on destroying Ukraine and bending its people to Russia's will. Those are the faces of kids.


This is sad it had to happen, but excellent psychological warfare to bring the battle back to Russia. I'm sure Russia will block the website, but good strategy from the Ukrainians.
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No Spin Ag
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In reply to AgLiving06 • 8:07a, 2/27/22
AgLiving06 said:
74OA said:
Pinabobina said:


I'm by no means an expert in military conflict, but this seems sus
Sounds like Russia is looking for a tactical pause so it can reset its logistics and renew the offensive, because there's no way Putin is backing down.

I hope Ukraine doesn't agree to a cease-fire while talks are ongoing. Keep the battlefield pressure on Russia.

Tons of NATO weapons support is incoming, so the pause really should help them get those new assets in place.


How are they getting the weapons to the Ukes without Russian interference?
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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74OA
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In reply to No Spin Ag • 8:08a, 2/27/22
AG
No Spin Ag said:
AgLiving06 said:
74OA said:
Pinabobina said:


I'm by no means an expert in military conflict, but this seems sus
Sounds like Russia is looking for a tactical pause so it can reset its logistics and renew the offensive, because there's no way Putin is backing down.

I hope Ukraine doesn't agree to a cease-fire while talks are ongoing. Keep the battlefield pressure on Russia.

Tons of NATO weapons support is incoming, so the pause really should help them get those new assets in place.


How are they getting the weapons to the Ukes without Russian interference?
Ukraine has a long land border that it shares with NATO countries.
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FireAg
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In reply to SPSAg05 • 8:08a, 2/27/22
AG
SPSAg05 said:
Naive, uneducated question, but even if Vlad were demented enough to launch a nuke, what are the chances that it would even make it from point A to point B anywhere in the world without being taken out by some kind of defense system?

I think that all depends on how many nukes are in play…would he launch just one or would he launch a full on strike against the West, which, we would be forced to respond to…

Someone needs to take down Putin and his inner circle before this gets to a point where the nuclear threat becomes imminent…
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TX04Aggie
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8:09a, 2/27/22
AG
BBC backing off the meeting happening on the border of Belarus. Saying Ukraine has not confirmed that this meeting is on.
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GE
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In reply to No Spin Ag • 8:10a, 2/27/22
AG
No Spin Ag said:
AgLiving06 said:
74OA said:
Pinabobina said:
I pop

I'm by no means an expert in military conflict, but this seems sus
Sounds like Russia is looking for a tactical pause so it can reset its logistics and renew the offensive, because there's no way Putin is backing down.

I hope Ukraine doesn't agree to a cease-fire while talks are ongoing. Keep the battlefield pressure on Russia.

Tons of NATO weapons support is incoming, so the pause really should help them get those new assets in place.
How are they getting the weapons to the Ukes without Russian interference?
I read through Poland. No like Russia has entire country occupied
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Pinabobina
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In reply to hunter2012 • 8:10a, 2/27/22
They rejected yesterday but in today, is what I gather. I thought last night was quiet. I wonder is they had a rough night?
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to 74OA • 8:11a, 2/27/22
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AG
74OA said:
The Russian army is reverting to type. LOOTING


Looking for sunflower seeds.
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