Eliminatus said:
ttu_85 said:
You have long been a good poster that have have enjoyed reading through the years. To be honest, I irritate the hell out of my friends and family and especially my wife with my cold pragmatic take on things. In this case its knowing the Russians always start poorly.
The mistakes they made in 1941 are unbelievably bad. Stupidity on a mass scale- see Stalin's purges and political appointments to the officer class. Mistakes what would have doomed most nations. The only thing that saved them was the massive size of their nation and that fact Stalin had millions of bodies to throw into the path of Germany's blitzkreig. One thing about Russians they can bleed and come back for more. Its something ingrained in their makeup. Weird I know.
Thing about Russia they will either throw in the towel early like they did in 1905 vs Japan or they will come back for more and more. Which Russia shows up. In 1905 the country was hit with the fist shock wave of Revolution. The Tsar was already in trouble. Here Russia is ruled by the grip of a tyrant that has proven to be shrewd and ruthless in much the same mold as Stalin. But unlike Stalin, a Georgian, BTW, Mother Russia's very existence is not on the line..
This last fact gives me hope. That the Russian people will not be so eager to bleed for Putin's cause of expanding the old Russian Empire. We will see. Especially given the fact Russia with an old declining population doesn't have that much blood to spill.
Aye, this is the question indeed.
If the Russia we fear shows up soon, I probably will be proven wrong. My thinking was of the efforts and ROE's that Russia has been exhibiting to this point. If they go full brutal Russia of the past, I will have to eat my prediction and hope for the best. If that Russia shows up, all we can do is hope. Still not sure NATO will step in even at that point.
The other caveat which I was thinking in that first post was logistics. CAN Russia sustain this very long? I have no idea, but I am questioning it now, which is a new territory for me from last week before they invaded. Even brutal Russia needs munitions. They are having trouble keeping their fuel levels up as is. No amount of propaganda can hide the fact they are taking losses, and probably heavy losses at that.
So many questions. But that is the point of this thread after all. Take in data and discuss what it could possibly mean both short and long term. As morbid as it sounds, and in full deference to the fighting and suffering occurring, I do find this stuff terribly fascinating and love discussing it.
Yep: "So many questions" I think that is why sports and yes, to be honest, war, fascinate us as a species. Patton once said war was one of mans greatest endeavors. I wish he was wrong. Unfortunately that is not the case. Up on the ashes of war come great innovations. The Civil War and WW2 are sad but undeniable proof of that.
and speaking of logistical basics:
Russia GDP 1.7T < Texas at 2.1T
Pop 145M with a staggeringly LOW
pop growth rate of -7.2%Birth rate 9.8 births/1,000 population (2021)
Death rate 16.7 deaths/1,000 population (2021)Russia is in serious long term demographic trouble.
As far as the tactical mistakes those are a head scratcher
1. Leaving Ukrainian communications up- including the net.
2. NOT achieving air superiority
3. Many units running out of fuel on the first day WTF !!
4. Suck night fighting capability.
5. Reports of 16/17 year old conscripts. Where are the Russian pros. They have them why were they not deployed as a spearhead ?
So many questions
