I think the regular army is in small groups and has melted into cities and the terrain. They may have armor in some places but they appear to be hitting columns as they move along or in to cities and towns as opposed to trying to provide battle in open fields. Like that Chechen force that that was ambushed and destroyed or the latest Kharkiv push.

I could be wrong, but this is what it seems like. It is a smart way to limit numbers, neutralize artillery and air power to some extent. This works if the enemy doesn't want to level your city with you in it...Putin changes his mind and...

You make it sound like the UA dissolved into fire team sized units and they're all freelancing their actions with little or no coordination.

Surely, even if dispersed, they would have spotters relaying enemy positions so multiple units could respond in a coordinated fashion.

Apologies if taken that way. I meant it to mean that they are not forming lines of battle in the open in all places. I agree that they are coordinating and are working together.

We tend to think of battle as clean lines and unified forces, like we see on maps. In reality, it is much more granular and fragmented. Trench warfare with well defined lines is a thing of the past.

Video of Russian spetsnaz looting a Ukrainian supermarket. https://t.co/wbxBHYbSGW pic.twitter.com/R6wJGuZ59e

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 27, 2022

And good ol bank robbery

🔴Rus güçlerinin banka soyması güvenlik kameralarına yakalandı. pic.twitter.com/35nJ2S8njC

— Conflict (@ConflictTR) February 27, 2022

🇺🇦 Ukrainian Mi-8 strikes over Gostomel#Ukraine #Russia pic.twitter.com/Xsz0sxqqoZ

— The RAGE X (@theragex) February 27, 2022

Soldier has a yellow armband and is saying 'it's ours' of the heli, so looks like they are UA choppers

Ahhhh. Finishing off my last Russian vodka tonight went down smooth. Really smooth... Back to Tito's.

Still, very unlikely Ukraine can withstand, but their spirit is infectious and the most honorable and uplifting I have seen in decades. God protect and bless Ukraine

This is where the Chechens were. A helo making attack runs is probably not something they were anticipating. May not have had air defense in the convoy.

UnDisappointedAg said:

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I don't think I've seen legit footage of a firefight with both sides shooting at each other yet. This is an invasion, but it doesn't feel like war. Stopping a tank by standing in front of it doesn't feel like war. Just a weird feeling about all of this.

---

Average Russian soldiers in these average ground units have little interest in killing civilians. This is like Texas invading Oklahoma. It makes no sense to them, either. Many apparently had no idea they were going to be told to go deep into Ukraine.

The civilian deaths so far seem to be mostly from MLRS, artillery, and missile strikes.

And I really do believe ground units have orders to limit civilian casualties.

They kill, but with compassion.

"Ukraine asks Red Cross to repatriate bodies of Russian soldiers killed in fighting."

"The International Committee of the Red Cross says it is aware of requests by Ukraine's UN ambassador and others to repatriate the bodies of Russian soldiers killed in action in Ukraine but has no numbers.

Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya tweeted Saturday that Ukraine has appealed to the ICRC "to facilitate repatriation of thousands of bodies of Russian soldiers" killed during its invasion of Ukraine. An accompanying chart claimed 3,500 Russian troops have been killed.

Kyslytsya tweeted that parents in Russia should have a chance "to bury them with dignity."



https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-asks-red-cross-to-repatriate-bodies-of-russian-soldiers-killed-in-fighting/

Ukrainian Military and Para-Military Forces are now looting the Russian Tgir Armored Vehicles that were Ambushed and Abandoned by Russian Special Forces shortly after entering the city of Kharkiv this morning. pic.twitter.com/jWEskmWS8Q

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 27, 2022

Todays operations that Russia’s western military district have conducted within Kharkiv, Ukraine are not only confusing but also potentially one of the largest tactical failures we have seen. Nothing supporting, not even BTRs. Once again no communication or coordinated fires.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) February 27, 2022

Wrong thread

2/ https://t.co/cNBIP509Be

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 27, 2022

I think they are putting all eggs in one big Kyiv assault basket.

Eliminatus said:

---

Captain Positivity said:

---

Todays operations that Russia’s western military district have conducted within Kharkiv, Ukraine are not only confusing but also potentially one of the largest tactical failures we have seen. Nothing supporting, not even BTRs. Once again no communication or coordinated fires.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) February 27, 2022

---

Alright. This past 12 hours has finally made me call my shot.

Ukraine is going to survive this IMO. They have taken the best shot that Russia was willing to give and from here on out, I don't see Russia being any more capable from this point forward than they have been without massive reinforcement. Which I am also not so sure we will see either.

A lot of fighting is still ahead but I think we will still see a Ukraine in the future. (Non nuclear consideration)

This war will be examined from every angle possible and the exact reasons will eventually get out but the net result is that Russia was not capable enough to accomplish their goals and looking back with hindsight, they might not have ever been from that first minute they opened fire.

This was a failed strategy that led to failed tactics that reinforced that failed strategy in my eyes. I know this is armchair general'ing but I believe now. I always wanted to but Ukraine bought the time we need and I am convinced the above is just more and more cracks that are becoming obvious in this Russian invasion.

---

I hope you are correct in your assessment.

Russia is already claiming more Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2s shot down and destroyed on the ground than Ukraine actually has TB2s 🇷🇺🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/jETiqi1Roc

— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) February 27, 2022

ttu_85 said:

---

Eliminatus said:

---

Captain Positivity said:

---

Todays operations that Russia’s western military district have conducted within Kharkiv, Ukraine are not only confusing but also potentially one of the largest tactical failures we have seen. Nothing supporting, not even BTRs. Once again no communication or coordinated fires.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) February 27, 2022

---

Alright. This past 12 hours has finally made me call my shot.

Ukraine is going to survive this IMO. They have taken the best shot that Russia was willing to give and from here on out, I don't see Russia being any more capable from this point forward than they have been without massive reinforcement. Which I am also not so sure we will see either.

A lot of fighting is still ahead but I think we will still see a Ukraine in the future. (Non nuclear consideration)

This war will be examined from every angle possible and the exact reasons will eventually get out but the net result is that Russia was not capable enough to accomplish their goals and looking back with hindsight, they might not have ever been from that first minute they opened fire.

This was a failed strategy that led to failed tactics that reinforced that failed strategy in my eyes. I know this is armchair general'ing but I believe now. I always wanted to but Ukraine bought the time we need and I am convinced the above is just more and more cracks that are becoming obvious in this Russian invasion.

---

I hope you are right but you are calling your shot 3:00 into the first quarter. This thing is just getting started.

Could you imagine it Jan 1, 1942 and we are on our heels in the Pacific taking one hit after another. Now imagine they had our communication tech- almost real time imagery of war. What would be posted on such threads. I can see it now: 'America and Britain are done.', 'Our navy has been destroyed', 'Japan is going to cake walk to the West Coast', Blah blah.

Not meaning to call you out. Please don't take it personally after all this is the first time in history we get almost real-time unedited unfiltered imagery from a major war zone. Its like watching a football or basketball game. To bad war doesns't work like that.

---

No, you are right for sure.

That is why I stressed my qualifiers as no major reinforcements soon and no Crazy Putin moves that are hard to quantify. With the stuff they have in theater right now and in the very near future, I just don't see them making the Ukes capitulate. Their peak power with their original invasion force has long passed now and the Ukes are still here and gaining hard earned experience and floods of willing defenders that will soon, maybe even right now, be armed more and more with modern weapons designed to kill the biggest threats they are facing now.

They had an estimated sub 200K force from the first minute that has since been spread out and been in constant fighting and maneuvering for over three days. I imagine reinforcements are trickling in but their efforts seem disjointed, piecemeal, and even stupid at times. They have been repulsed in their attempts at Kiev already. The city has stood and the citizens are even more galvanized. They have proven to still be able to attack air threats successfully.

The biggest thing I see so far is that Russia has not seemed to be able to coordinate and communicate effectively on the ground. At least not to our standards. I have seen videos of lone or double vehicles getting shot to ***** All alone. A lot of times now. It's bizarre. Russia has not prosecuted this in the way that anyone expected they should have been able to.

I could be wrong. I may very well be. I am just a dude sitting in a chair in Texas looking from the outside in. But I hope I am right to. This is just my very unexpert guess after absorbing all of this. We shall of course see in the end.

I actually appreciate you keeping me honest. I certainly strive to be.

ThermobaricMLRS system has been rolled into theater. Hopefully it is taken out of action before used around Kharkiv.

Quote:

---

Dusted with snow and sitting on a tank- carrying truck, this is the menacing image of Russia's deadly weapon that will spread fear across Ukraine and the world.

After three days of dogged defence by Ukraine's military frustrated the advance of Vladimir Putin's forces, the Russian President yesterday deployed a fearsome rocket system onto the battlefield.
Footage verified by the American broadcaster CNN showed the Russian army moving TOS-1 Buratino rockets towards the front line.

Capable of firing a barrage of thermobaric 'flamethrower' rockets, the weapon can wipe out everything within a 300-yard radius. British military sources warn it could kill tens of thousands of civilians.

---

I suspect Russia will step up the brutality prior to any possible stand down.

Gordo14 said:

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FAT SEXY said:

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Russia won't have to wait long for the internet outrage from the West to subside. It takes about a week and a half for news cycles in these countries to move on to the next thing. See the Afghanistan withdrawal for example.

---

People are not gonna ignore an active war in Europe.

---

True. Nor should we forget or ignore the incompetency displayed in the "Afghanistan withdrawal ", excuse me debacle

Video of what appears to be the beginning of bank runs in RU due to rumors of SWIFT ban. Unless it's some other currency it won't be[anything] on Monday, but they're withdrawing the toilet paper anyway?

Reddit link

I have had a quick basic search and can't find this posted before

— Smith (@MSmith3790) February 27, 2022

Are the Ukrainians (and their allies) still able to resupply forces within Kiev?

Eliminatus said:

---

ttu_85 said:

---

Eliminatus said:

---

Captain Positivity said:

---

Todays operations that Russia’s western military district have conducted within Kharkiv, Ukraine are not only confusing but also potentially one of the largest tactical failures we have seen. Nothing supporting, not even BTRs. Once again no communication or coordinated fires.

— The Intel Hub (@The_IntelHub) February 27, 2022

---

Alright. This past 12 hours has finally made me call my shot.

Ukraine is going to survive this IMO. They have taken the best shot that Russia was willing to give and from here on out, I don't see Russia being any more capable from this point forward than they have been without massive reinforcement. Which I am also not so sure we will see either.

A lot of fighting is still ahead but I think we will still see a Ukraine in the future. (Non nuclear consideration)

This war will be examined from every angle possible and the exact reasons will eventually get out but the net result is that Russia was not capable enough to accomplish their goals and looking back with hindsight, they might not have ever been from that first minute they opened fire.

This was a failed strategy that led to failed tactics that reinforced that failed strategy in my eyes. I know this is armchair general'ing but I believe now. I always wanted to but Ukraine bought the time we need and I am convinced the above is just more and more cracks that are becoming obvious in this Russian invasion.

---

I hope you are right but you are calling your shot 3:00 into the first quarter. This thing is just getting started.

Could you imagine it Jan 1, 1942 and we are on our heels in the Pacific taking one hit after another. Now imagine they had our communication tech- almost real time imagery of war. What would be posted on such threads. I can see it now: 'America and Britain are done.', 'Our navy has been destroyed', 'Japan is going to cake walk to the West Coast', Blah blah.

Not meaning to call you out. Please don't take it personally after all this is the first time in history we get almost real-time unedited unfiltered imagery from a major war zone. Its like watching a football or basketball game. To bad war doesns't work like that.

---

No, you are right for sure.

That is why I stressed my qualifiers as no major reinforcements soon and no Crazy Putin moves that are hard to quantify. With the stuff they have in theater right now and in the very near future, I just don't see them making the Ukes capitulate. Their peak power with their original invasion force has long passed now and the Ukes are still here and gaining hard earned experience and floods of willing defenders that will soon, maybe even right now, be armed more and more with modern weapons designed to kill the biggest threats they are facing now.

They had an estimated sub 200K force from the first minute that has since been spread out and been in constant fighting and maneuvering for over three days. I imagine reinforcements are trickling in but their efforts seem disjointed, piecemeal, and even stupid at times. They have been repulsed in their attempts at Kiev already. The city has stood and the citizens are even more galvanized. They have proven to still be able to attack air threats successfully.

The biggest thing I see so far is that Russia has not seemed to be able to coordinate and communicate effectively on the ground. At least not to our standards. I have seen videos of lone or double vehicles getting shot to ***** All alone. A lot of times now. It's bizarre. Russia has not prosecuted this in the way that anyone expected they should have been able to.

I could be wrong. I may very well be. I am just a dude sitting in a chair in Texas looking from the outside in. But I hope I am right to. This is just my very unexpert guess after absorbing all of this. We shall of course see in the end.

I actually appreciate you keeping me honest. I certainly strive to be.

---

You have long been a good poster that have have enjoyed reading through the years. To be honest, I irritate the hell out of my friends and family and especially my wife with my cold pragmatic take on things. In this case its knowing the Russians always start poorly.

The mistakes they made in 1941 are unbelievably bad. Stupidity on a mass scale- see Stalin's purges and political appointments to the officer class. Mistakes that would have doomed most nations. The only thing that saved them was the massive size of their nation and that fact Stalin had millions of bodies to throw into the path of Germany's blitzkreig. One thing about Russians they can bleed and come back for more. Its something ingrained in their makeup. Weird I know.

Russia could either throw in the towel early like they did in 1905 vs Japan or they will come back for more and more. Which Russia shows up. In 1905 the country was hit with the first shock wave of Revolution. The Tsar was already in trouble. Here, Russia is ruled by the grip of a tyrant that has proven to be shrewd and ruthless in much the same mold as Stalin. But unlike Stalin, a Georgian, BTW, Mother Russia's very existence is not on the line.

This last fact gives me hope. That the Russian people will not be so eager to bleed for Putin's cause of expanding the old Russian Empire. We will see. Especially given the fact Russia with an old declining population doesn't have that much blood to spill. Whichever the case its a Russian thing to start off poorly.

It is still the unknown if's that still exists that worry me.

My opinion is that:

IF Russia does NOT speed this process it may force more help. From China.
IF it looks like Russia is having to retreat with accomplishing any goals it may quick start a Taiwan campaign.
IF Putin turns on his own protests in his countries that would mean he is capable of anything.

China and when/how they react is is a key wild card.

The upside to this it does sound like NATO is coming to life to support Ukraine.