W said:

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aeroag14 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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You don't just take an Island

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It would take the largest military operation in human history to invade taiwan

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and the problem for Taiwan...their opponent would be one of the largest military organizations in human history

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One with no experience conducting large scale amphibious landing operations under fire and an inadequate navy to protect such an invasion force.

Captain Positivity said:

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mts6175 said:

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DapperDanMan said:

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I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.

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I honestly think a NATO country ends up engaging in this in the Ukraine within the next two weeks. Won't drag all of NATO into this, but Poland/Germany/etc someone ends up engaging. The repercussions of Russia succeeding on this is too big, especially now there is talk of nukes moving to Belarus That may be the straw that breaks the camel's back that gets everyone involved.

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Germany has no army to speak of. Their Air Force is almost entirely out of service. Trump called them out on it. They have some high tech tanks but very few capable forces.

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and we are all thankful for that

W said:

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aeroag14 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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You don't just take an Island

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It would take the largest military operation in human history to invade taiwan

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and the problem for Taiwan...their opponent would be one of the largest military organizations in human history

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Who hasn't executed a major military operation in fifty years.

Ulrich said:

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It seems like if Russia had finished the deal immediately without too much resistance, everyone was prepared to accept it. The longer Ukraine holds out and makes it clear that they really don't want this, the more governments around the world feel compelled to exert pressure on Russia.

Russia has broken the norms expected of modern nation states.

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100% agree with this.

MGS said:

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W said:

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aeroag14 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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You don't just take an Island

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It would take the largest military operation in human history to invade taiwan

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and the problem for Taiwan...their opponent would be one of the largest military organizations in human history

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Who hasn't executed a major military operation in fifty years.

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is the population of Taiwan is 24 million people and is the size of Massachusetts, you are talking street to street fighting like the world has never seen, thats once they are even able to get a foothold

MGS said:

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W said:

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aeroag14 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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You don't just take an Island

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It would take the largest military operation in human history to invade taiwan

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and the problem for Taiwan...their opponent would be one of the largest military organizations in human history

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Who hasn't executed a major military operation in fifty years.

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And from 50 years ago they got their tail kicked by Vietnam.
Has the PRC ever done an amphibious attack?

ttu_85 said:

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mts6175 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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mts6175 said:

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DapperDanMan said:

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I don't think Ukraine has this won, but the world, with some obvious exceptions, is starting to wake up and help. Cities may fall, Kiev may fall and a puppet government may be installed, but I think the Ukrainian people will not stop fighting. Eventually the Russians will be gone. The Chechens will be gone. Ukraine will remain.

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I honestly think a NATO country ends up engaging in this in the Ukraine within the next two weeks. Won't drag all of NATO into this, but Poland/Germany/etc someone ends up engaging. The repercussions of Russia succeeding on this is too big, especially now there is talk of nukes moving to Belarus That may be the straw that breaks the camel's back that gets everyone involved.

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If anyone gets involved it will be Poland first. I don't have Intel or anything but my gut tells me they may engage sooner than later.

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That's really what I think. Poland has a lot more to lose than anyone else if he decides to turn North. I just think moving in nukes changes the game for everyone.

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Why? Russia has all manor of nukes, tactical, intermediate ranged, ICBMs, SLBMs, Cruise missiles, bomber deployed, etc. Moving the nukes and publishing it is political gaming and meant to scare people. It is of no additional military value given Russia's existing nuke and delivery systems mix.

This is to screw with your head and make you shake in fear of the Russian Bear.

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I know exactly what it is. But you've also got a desperate Putin now. Its no different than if Russia decided to park nukes in Juarez.....it elevates things politically.

yes, and a rational leader would realize that.

or a leader that is concerned about casualties.

neither may apply in the Taiwan situation

Bag said:

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MGS said:

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W said:

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aeroag14 said:

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Seabreeze said:

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Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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You don't just take an Island

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It would take the largest military operation in human history to invade taiwan

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and the problem for Taiwan...their opponent would be one of the largest military organizations in human history

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Who hasn't executed a major military operation in fifty years.

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is the population of Taiwan is 24 million people and is the size of Massachusetts, you are talking street to street fighting like the world has never seen, thats once they are even able to get a foothold

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Perhaps the two most important lessons being observed in Beijing from the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the potential speed at which financial isolation of their assets can happen and that the assumptions about willingness of the target population to surrender under threat may be very wrong.

I'm not convinced Putin is desperate. It doesn't seem like he's sending in trained troops nor modern equipment for the most part. If true, he's softening up the Ukrainians with cannon fodder. Am I wrong about that?

Or he's keeping his better troops available in case NATO intervenes.

Yes, it would be incredibly complex. I hinted at that but could have emphasized it more. Taiwan is the burr under China's saddle. For Winnie the Pooh, it would be about securing his place as one of the greatest leaders in their history.

The 2 big questions were:
1. Would Biden honor our treaty with Taiwan fast enough to matter; and
2. Could Russian/Chinese arms compete with American/western

It seems the answer to #2 is NO!

I don't think he sacrificed Russian soldiers just to play head games

Bottlerocket said:

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I don't think he sacrificed Russian soldiers just to play head games

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Not head games--softening up and depleting Ukrainian manpower and equipment, and trying to accomplish other objectives.

I don't understand why you'd throw outdated equipment at the battlefield like that.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Eliminatus said:

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fullback44 said:

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hunter2012 said:

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How are the Ukes dealing with the heavy armor? Because I figired they would be able to roll through every major city by now and this obviously hasn't happened.

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One answer NLAW, Javelins, Stingers, and other similar donated weapons..,

Think about what Russia is doing, they are attaching using the major highways … all Ukraine has to do is know the major highways the Russians are coming from, line up 20 or 30 Ukrainian soldiers with NLAWs and Javelins and that line of equipment can be shut down, that heavy armor equipment is getting blown to pieces, once they stop them in the front of the convoy, then they ambush the other vehicles, it seems this is what they are doing everywhere.. the west needs to keep supplying the NLAWs and Javelin type units and Ukraine may be able to cause a lot of serious issues for Russia

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One of the things about this conflict is that every single nation is watching and taking notes. It's not every day we get to see frontline Russian armies fighting and I promise we are absorbing every byte of data we can from this.

It has long been said that main battle tanks will eventually go the way of the battleship. Not sure if that is true any time soon but once again the effectiveness of man portable anti armor weapons is really showing right now in the neverending arrow vs chest plate battle. Armor will catch up again I am sure but seeing a LOT of catastrophic kills on Russian armor. Tanks and AFVs just ripped open. (Also why I won't discount the casualty numbers out of hand)

The resource exchange is heinous though. A $20K rocket vs a several million dollar T80 and the trained professionals manning it who likely never saw their death coming.

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Russian tanks do not have internally separate ammunition storage, so any penetrative hit has a reasonably good chance of detonating internal ammunition.

Modern Western tanks are considerably less vulnerable to this with separated storage in the turret bustle and blow out panels, but they are clearly more vulnerable from a top down attack also unless re-armored for it.

Next generation armor will probably account for that threat somehow, possibly by being smaller and highly automated, as it still has value on the battlefield due to mobility and firepower.

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Mind you, the Russians have a carousel loader underneath the gunner on most tanks. Which leads to what some term as the "Emergency Turret eject" once hit. That would require redesigning their entire armored units and the Russians are generally adverse to that.

RF Armed Forces somewhere in the Chernihiv region. The presence of such ancient armored units as the T-72A and T-72AV is noteworthy. In addition, T-72B arr. 1985 and 1989, as well as MT-LB, BMP-2 and others. pic.twitter.com/xYjUvwvMZ4

— ZOKA (@200_zoka) February 26, 2022

... embed fail..

To us it is outdated. To Russia it is state of the art

Quote:

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I don't understand why you'd throw outdated equipment at the battlefield like that.

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Because that's all they can get to work reliably?

Agsuffering@bulaw said:

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China was probably seriously contemplating invading Taiwan. Their demographic window is closing and they perceive the current administration as weak based on Afghanistan.

The present Russian debacle probably gives them a lot of pause. As I understand it, the Taiwanese are bad mfers with far better armaments than the Ukes. Plus, it would be amphibious as opposed to open plains.

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I'd like to think this as well but at the same time I feel that China is so unbelievably arrogant and racist that they'll just convince themselves that the reason this failed was because the moronic Russians did it all wrong and that they would never **** it up like the Soviet's have.

Plus they'll tell themselves that they won't get as much international pressure since everyone is much more dependent on them and that Taiwan is their rightful property and not an independent nation like Ukraine.

Irish 2.0 said:

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To us it is outdated. To Russia it is state of the art

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To be fair, the Russians don't put stuff in "reserve" like we do. Most of it gets sent to the Far Eastern Theater. The Soviets were still using Maxim guns in frontline service on the border with China until 1999.

Waffledynamics said:

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Bottlerocket said:

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I don't think he sacrificed Russian soldiers just to play head games

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Not head games--softening up and depleting Ukrainian manpower and equipment, and trying to accomplish other objectives.

I don't understand why you'd throw outdated equipment at the battlefield like that.

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Probably because they're lolpoor and not the USSR of the 50s - 70s.

This footage from Lviv of people waiting for trains to reach Poland looks like colorized WWII footage. It was recorded today. https://t.co/DpaAe5XSnV pic.twitter.com/bqmYu8A6j3

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) February 27, 2022

agent-maroon said:

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Quote:

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I don't understand why you'd throw outdated equipment at the battlefield like that.

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Because that's all they can get to work reliably?

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Was it the Russians or Chinese that had their super duper new tank break down in a military parade a couple of years ago?

Waffledynamics said:

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I'm not convinced Putin is desperate. It doesn't seem like he's sending in trained troops nor modern equipment for the most part. If true, he's softening up the Ukrainians with cannon fodder. Am I wrong about that?

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I believe that you may be overlooking the fact that all of the most elite heavy ground forces must utilize the same fuel supply trains and the same roads as the forces that went in first. I believe that Putin had only one opportunity to choose which level of forces he sent into Ukraine and he chose to send the conscripts and unit with older equipment. The units equipped with more modern tanks and weapons would have to move more slowly through torn up roads and mud bogs and around the burned out wreckage of those that went ahead of them.

The key principle of employing the reserve is to reinforce success and not failure. Rage may lead Putin to ignore this (especially if he has relieved the CoS as reported earlier) but almost nobody (at least not competent logistician) would advise sending more forces behind those that are stalled.

If there is a way for the Russians to begin correcting their mistakes it would be to employ some reconnaissance in communication with their battalion task groups and to coordinate close air support. Unfortunately for the Russians, that is not just some hasty organizational changes while in the fight, that is a culture change that takes time and a lot of practice. The Russians seem to be very rigid in employing units by type instead of integrating task forces with organic capabilities for ISR, fire support coordination, and logistics.

2 hours til sunrise. Will downtown Kyiv be filled with Russian tanks?

"#Melitopol, for a short time the mobile signal went up: the heating radiators are cold, there is no water, no electricity. No Ukrainaina army, police, or anyone of ours, only Rusnya (=RU) & looters. I hope that at least we'll begin to mention the occupied city in our reports" https://t.co/lwgiGc9674

— English Lugansk (@loogunda) February 27, 2022

TH36 said:

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I looked up plane tickets to get to Poland today, $1100 and I could be within a short drive of the Ukraine border. If I didn't have a wife and child, I might just do it. All I ever dreamed of when I was kid was being in the military but mine wouldn't take me cause I've got asthma. I bet they'd hand me a AK over there and welcome anyone with open arms willing to fight. I absolutely love these people. We've got to keep showing them how much the world loves them. I hope they somehow know that the whole world is stressed out over their situation hanging on with them. They will go down in history no matter what happens as putting up one of the greatest fights the world has ever seen.

Sorry if this is a derail. I can't tell y'all how much I appreciate y'all keeping this going. It's been a wealth of info for those of us who have no social media accounts of our own to dig some of this stuff up. I've been relying on YouTube live streams.

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I've been dreaming to do this too. I was in the military and did my time and miss it. I finished my career at JSOC back in 2004. I'm too chubby these days but the desire is still there.

Russian "recon" seems to be so far, "Send a group of conscripts in an old BMP and see where they get blown up". Granted, that is exactly what happened in Chechnya war no 1 But you would think they learn?

in many ways, their resolve is allowing western opinion to fully coalesce

so they likely won't win but they are absolutely changing the terms of the eventual settlement and the cost calculations for similar moves

JobSecurity said:

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"#Melitopol, for a short time the mobile signal went up: the heating radiators are cold, there is no water, no electricity. No Ukrainaina army, police, or anyone of ours, only Rusnya (=RU) & looters. I hope that at least we'll begin to mention the occupied city in our reports" https://t.co/lwgiGc9674

— English Lugansk (@loogunda) February 27, 2022

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Sadly we've verified this is all 100% accurate.

erudite said:

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Russian "recon" seems to be so far, "Send a group of conscripts in an old BMP and see where they get blown up". Granted, that is exactly what happened in Chechnya war no 1 But you would think they learn?

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That's pretty much been official Russian doctrine at least a hundred years.