***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

7,556,239 Views | 47736 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by ABATTBQ11
GAC06
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2wealfth Man said:

GAC06 said:

GarryowenAg said:

It's almost as if we're TRYING to get Putin to engage, so we can swoop in to help Ukraine.


We aren't in any position to do that
The Russians aren't in any position to escalate either. They are well stretched in Ukraine right now.


Agreed, I'm just saying we don't have anything in place to "swoop in" with
jabberwalkie09
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Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
aggiehawg
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oneeyedag said:

Chernobyl issues. The amount of radiation seeping out there is measured in sieverts. Above 10k approximately about 30 days before you die.

Depending on the wind, and how many sieverts are in the air, the damage could filter into the water system, or worse be sorta to a nuke.
How much is a sievert? Because yesterday I saw the per hour rate at Chernobyl went from 3200 to 65,500, nSv
jobu93
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I find myself being continually surprsed that Russia has largely ignored it's own doctrine. So many areas of attack with little to no prep of battlefield.

The taking of the airfields was great for them, but you have to think that their timetable is shot to hell because the heavies couldn't get there to hold the ground.

Just a really curious action IMO.
aggiehawg
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GAC06 said:

2wealfth Man said:

GAC06 said:

GarryowenAg said:

It's almost as if we're TRYING to get Putin to engage, so we can swoop in to help Ukraine.


We aren't in any position to do that
The Russians aren't in any position to escalate either. They are well stretched in Ukraine right now.


Agreed, I'm just saying we don't have anything in place to "swoop in" with
We don't?
FriscoKid
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jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
If Russia hits those trucks then NATO will hit back.
jabberwalkie09
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Now out of date map by several hours.
ABATTBQ11
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Irish 2.0 said:




Cut Belarus off from SWIFT and institute a full trade embargo.
Twice an Aggie
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Response to NATO troop movement

Also called positioning forces in case you get dragged in to this. I don't think Putin is rational any longer. This is about conquest and paranoia and not what is best for Russia. He may wake up and decide to just fight everyone...he is already attacking schools...
ABATTBQ11
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GAC06 said:

2wealfth Man said:

GAC06 said:

GarryowenAg said:

It's almost as if we're TRYING to get Putin to engage, so we can swoop in to help Ukraine.


We aren't in any position to do that
The Russians aren't in any position to escalate either. They are well stretched in Ukraine right now.


Agreed, I'm just saying we don't have anything in place to "swoop in" with


We should have mobilized and had extra forces there a long time ago. It's not like this was a surprise.
JJxvi
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aggiehawg said:

oneeyedag said:

Chernobyl issues. The amount of radiation seeping out there is measured in sieverts. Above 10k approximately about 30 days before you die.

Depending on the wind, and how many sieverts are in the air, the damage could filter into the water system, or worse be sorta to a nuke.
How much is a sievert? Because yesterday I saw the per hour rate at Chernobyl went from 3200 to 65,500, nSv
When dealing with radiation, it really matters with regard to exposure per time (those figures you are quoting is probably per hour). A sievert is generally indicative of a 5% chance of cancer in a lifetime in terms of risk.

nano is 10^-9 so 65,500 nanosieverts is 0.0000655 sievert
Ducks4brkfast
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FriscoKid said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
If Russia hits those trucks then NATO will hit back.
No it won't.
JJxvi
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Most likely at Chernobyl (in my uneducated opinion) the radiation increases are just from stirring up the soil
74OA
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FriscoKid said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
If Russia hits those trucks then NATO will hit back.
Quite sure there is a cargo transfer to Ukrainian transport at their shared border.
Nitro Power
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Agree

NATO is saber rattling

If the United States doesn't get involved, then NATO won't do a damn thing
chickencoupe16
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JJxvi said:

aggiehawg said:

oneeyedag said:

Chernobyl issues. The amount of radiation seeping out there is measured in sieverts. Above 10k approximately about 30 days before you die.

Depending on the wind, and how many sieverts are in the air, the damage could filter into the water system, or worse be sorta to a nuke.
How much is a sievert? Because yesterday I saw the per hour rate at Chernobyl went from 3200 to 65,500, nSv
When dealing with radiation, it really matters with regard to exposure per time (those figures you are quoting is probably per hour). A sievert is generally indicative of a 5% chance of cancer in a lifetime in terms of risk.

nano is 10^-9 so 65,500 nanosieverts is 0.0000655 sievert
According to that website, 65,500 nSv/h is basically nothing. Add 3 zeros to go from micro to nano. https://www.familydentisttree.com/the-honest-truth-about-radiation-from-dental-x-rays/
LMCane
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jabberwalkie09 said:

TRM said:

jabberwalkie09 said:





NATO/we are rapidly moving into a war footing imo. I fully expect the NATO response force to be reinforced with additional units.
Finland isn't part of NATO, but Russia just threatened them today if they apply.

I'm aware of their status and their renewed interest. However, my statement is more towards the general situation and reaction of NATO to the situation in eastern Europe.




this can't be real.

where does NATO think they will be able to put SAMs into Ukraine?!

there are likely no more flights by Uke aircraft anywhere around the country.

no way NATO sends in C-17s to Kyiv (and if they do that is a death wish and WWIII)

that seems to be massive disinformation or mistranslation

unless Stoltenberg just talking about trying to smuggle more Stingers across the Polish border.

that is really not going to do anything getting a few SUVs to carry equipment from Lviv.
rgag12
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Ducks4brkfast said:

FriscoKid said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
If Russia hits those trucks then NATO will hit back.
No it won't.


Yea people on here are itching for a fight that isn't coming. People forget that one of the biggest reasons Putin keeps messing with Ukraine is because he DOESN'T want to fight NATO. And no Putin all of a sudden hasn't lost his mind because his troops weren't able to seize 100% of its objectives in 24 hours
HumpitPuryear
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Ducks4brkfast said:

FriscoKid said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
If Russia hits those trucks then NATO will hit back.
No it won't.
Putin is a guy that is invaded a neighbor and is in the process of murdering it's citizens. We are flirting with WW3 here on assumptions that Putin won't attack NATO and won't deploy nukes. Those are dangerous assumptions based on Putin's moves in the past few days and his very clear warnings.
chickencoupe16
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GarryowenAg
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ABATTBQ11 said:

GAC06 said:

2wealfth Man said:

GAC06 said:

GarryowenAg said:

It's almost as if we're TRYING to get Putin to engage, so we can swoop in to help Ukraine.


We aren't in any position to do that
The Russians aren't in any position to escalate either. They are well stretched in Ukraine right now.


Agreed, I'm just saying we don't have anything in place to "swoop in" with


We should have mobilized and had extra forces there a long time ago. It's not like this was a surprise.
we have around 3 BCTs (Brigade Combat Teams) on the eastern flank as we sit. Plus additional BCTs in Italy, Germany, and Kuwait.
LMCane
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74OA said:

FriscoKid said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
If Russia hits those trucks then NATO will hit back.
Quite sure there is a cargo transfer to Ukrainian transport at their shared border.
and the Russians are just going to watch Uke transport trucks pick that stuff up at the border and not do anything?!?

good thing though that NATO publicizes it in tweets.
LMCane
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rgag12 said:

Ducks4brkfast said:

FriscoKid said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
If Russia hits those trucks then NATO will hit back.
No it won't.


Yea people on here are itching for a fight that isn't coming. People forget that one of the biggest reasons Putin keeps messing with Ukraine is because he DOESN'T want to fight NATO. And no Putin all of a sudden hasn't lost his mind because his troops weren't able to seize 100% of its objectives in 24 hours
Agreed

anyone who is itching for a fight with Russia needs to be committed because that is likely to lead to massive casualties and a real full blown war that hasn't been seen since 1945.

The Russian Air Force is about to pound any convoy from the Polish border into fine dust.
Nitro Power
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Again, there is zero chance Russia launches a nuclear weapon....ZERO
txags92
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chickencoupe16 said:

chickencoupe16 said:

JJxvi said:

aggiehawg said:

oneeyedag said:

Chernobyl issues. The amount of radiation seeping out there is measured in sieverts. Above 10k approximately about 30 days before you die.

Depending on the wind, and how many sieverts are in the air, the damage could filter into the water system, or worse be sorta to a nuke.
How much is a sievert? Because yesterday I saw the per hour rate at Chernobyl went from 3200 to 65,500, nSv
When dealing with radiation, it really matters with regard to exposure per time (those figures you are quoting is probably per hour). A sievert is generally indicative of a 5% chance of cancer in a lifetime in terms of risk.

nano is 10^-9 so 65,500 nanosieverts is 0.0000655 sievert
According to that website, 65,500 nSv is basically nothing. Add 3 zeros to go from micro to nano. https://www.familydentisttree.com/the-honest-truth-about-radiation-from-dental-x-rays/

The dental xray lasts a second or two at that dosage. Rad exposure dose is based on strength of exposure multiplied by the duration of exposure. So if they are seeing 65.5 millisieverts per hour, and they get exposed to that level for 30 days, you are looking at a total dose of 47 sieverts.
oneeyedag
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1 Sv = one joule of energy in each kg of body tissue

Correction on my earlier 6000k 30 days, 10k a weekk


LMCane
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oldmanguy said:

I find myself being continually surprsed that Russia has largely ignored it's own doctrine. So many areas of attack with little to no prep of battlefield.

The taking of the airfields was great for them, but you have to think that their timetable is shot to hell because the heavies couldn't get there to hold the ground.

Just a really curious action IMO.
very strange to land some Spetsnatz or paratroop aviation infantry in that chopper borne attack on the airport outside Kiev.

unless you had heavy transport planes landing 10 minutes later bringing in armor and artillery
Stochasticman
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NATO Allies to Provide More Weapons to Ukraine, Stoltenberg Says

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-02-25/nato-allies-to-provide-more-weapons-to-ukraine-stoltenberg-says

"BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Friday the alliance was deploying parts of its combat-ready response force and would continue to send weapons to Ukraine, including air defences."

Air defenses being shoulder-fired SAM. Going to make it a lot harder on their choppers especially.

Fewer russian choppers = increased effectiveness of Ukrainian armor.

Ernest Tucker
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jabberwalkie09 said:



Some AAA by the looks of it in Odessa.


Defeces! Removing that Russian Sh*t from the sky, I like it
chickencoupe16
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txags92 said:

chickencoupe16 said:

chickencoupe16 said:

JJxvi said:

aggiehawg said:

oneeyedag said:

Chernobyl issues. The amount of radiation seeping out there is measured in sieverts. Above 10k approximately about 30 days before you die.

Depending on the wind, and how many sieverts are in the air, the damage could filter into the water system, or worse be sorta to a nuke.
How much is a sievert? Because yesterday I saw the per hour rate at Chernobyl went from 3200 to 65,500, nSv
When dealing with radiation, it really matters with regard to exposure per time (those figures you are quoting is probably per hour). A sievert is generally indicative of a 5% chance of cancer in a lifetime in terms of risk.

nano is 10^-9 so 65,500 nanosieverts is 0.0000655 sievert
According to that website, 65,500 nSv is basically nothing. Add 3 zeros to go from micro to nano. https://www.familydentisttree.com/the-honest-truth-about-radiation-from-dental-x-rays/

The dental xray lasts a second or two at that dosage. Rad exposure dose is based on strength of exposure multiplied by the duration of exposure. So if they are seeing 65.5 millisieverts per hour, and they get exposed to that level for 30 days, you are looking at a total dose of 47 sieverts.
Duration of exposure certainly matters and I'm not volunteering to be exposed to it, but this is not a huge deal.
Time certainly matter
Who?mikejones!
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Reporter based in Kiev
74OA
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LMCane said:

rgag12 said:

Ducks4brkfast said:

FriscoKid said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
If Russia hits those trucks then NATO will hit back.
No it won't.


Yea people on here are itching for a fight that isn't coming. People forget that one of the biggest reasons Putin keeps messing with Ukraine is because he DOESN'T want to fight NATO. And no Putin all of a sudden hasn't lost his mind because his troops weren't able to seize 100% of its objectives in 24 hours
Agreed

anyone who is itching for a fight with Russia needs to be committed because that is likely to lead to massive casualties and a real full blown war that hasn't been seen since 1945.

The Russian Air Force is about to pound any convoy from the Polish border into fine dust.
Again, it's a virtual certainty that Polish supplies are transferred to Ukrainian transport at their shared border.

Of course those Ukrainian trucks are at risk on their return run, but they won't be lined up in nice, neat, easily identified convoys, they'll be dispersed.
Central Committee
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Nitro Power said:

aggiehawg said:

Radiation and water purification. So the fear is Russia will use nukes or bomb their water infrastructure.
Zero chance Russia uses a nuclear weapon of any payload


A popular Russian theory of warfare in the European theater is to use tactical nukes an an effort to 'quickly sue for peace.' Russia knows they cannot win an air war in Europe and that the NATO forces would quickly get air superiority.

This is why the introduction of the Pershing missile by the US in the 80's helped end the Cold War. The Pershing was the great equalizer to the massive Russian armored ground forces.
We may not always get what we want. We may not always get what we need. Just so we don't get what we deserve.
Stochasticman
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jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
Whatever they end up sending, will have a lot of hands to pick up.

Reports are many many civilians signing up to fight.

When Kyiv falls this is going to drag out into a guerilla war, and bleed Russia dry.
richardag
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HumpitPuryear said:

Ducks4brkfast said:

FriscoKid said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



Confirmation of delivery of by a Polish minister.
If Russia hits those trucks then NATO will hit back.
No it won't.
Putin is a guy that is invaded a neighbor and is in the process of murdering it's citizens. We are flirting with WW3 here on assumptions that Putin won't attack NATO and won't deploy nukes. Those are dangerous assumptions based on Putin's moves in the past few days and his very clear warnings.
I would hope if it gets out of control Putin will be removed by people who believe in self preservation.
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