Image from the impact site in #Kyiv. pic.twitter.com/O95YIsqmEM
— Aurora Intel (@AuroraIntel) February 25, 2022
Firefights discover wreckage from whatever was shot down. pic.twitter.com/9kJpOpML10
— Aurora Intel (@AuroraIntel) February 25, 2022
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Last: 18 min ago by Rossticus
Jayhawk said:
If the Ukes are still operating radar guided SAMs that represents a significant failure on the part of the Russians in terms of day 1 objectives.
Would not want to be one of Putin's generals in a staff meeting right now.
You think they'd tell him? We think of Putin as the hard ass, clear eyed, KGB agent that he was 25 years ago. But being a dictator for a couple decades leads to being surrounded by yes men.
"A closer photo from the scene appears to be of the plane wreck." https://t.co/iTNYvGs13a
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 25, 2022
Agthatbuilds said:jabberwalkie09 said:Video filmed by someone on the Ground of what appears to be a Russian Aircraft getting shot down by Air Defense Systems over Kyiv about 30 minutes ago. pic.twitter.com/lQBRGGbI5X
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 25, 2022
There is no doubt in my mind Vlad just lost a bomber.
Didn't sound like a turbo prop when it went over
Didn't seem to have much altitude given short time from impact to contacting ground. Was only a few seconds.
I get the feeling Russia military sucks
Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?KYcatTXaggie said:
If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.
Ah, I see now. These are mobile systems so hopefully the Ukes were able to squirrel some away for just such an event. Either way, a hard kill on a Russian asset is a good thing.Eliminatus said:Yes. I looked up their order of battle as best I could at the onset of this whole thing. The S300 is the best AA they have with a reported over 30 systems operational. Did see one on fire a while back though in a video. They are good weapons but big and emit all sorts of radiation. These are the things that should have been on Priority Target List 1 from the beginning for Russia.JB!98 said:Does Ukraine have those systems?erudite said:See post below you. Looks like S-300 intercept. Tor has "smaller" 15kg warhead.JB!98 said:I have no idea, but something just got popped and it seems it was a bad guy. I don't know that a bear would be low enough for a manpad to take it out. Could be wishful thinking on my part, but that sure looks like an aircraft being hit by a SAM of some sort.TX04Aggie said:
Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?
There is also no doubt in my mind that if these systems still live, Kiev will have some of them.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
Agthatbuilds said:jabberwalkie09 said:Agthatbuilds said:jabberwalkie09 said:Video filmed by someone on the Ground of what appears to be a Russian Aircraft getting shot down by Air Defense Systems over Kyiv about 30 minutes ago. pic.twitter.com/lQBRGGbI5X
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 25, 2022
There is no doubt in my mind Vlad just lost a bomber.
Didn't sound like a turbo prop when it went over
Russia has a couple of bombers that are jet. One of them is a copy of the B-1
Yes, I know. Someone said they hoped it was a "bear"
I'd be fine with any of their bombers getting swatted out of the sky. More the better.
Maybe just a paper tiger
There are reports Unconfirmed that 2 Ballistic Missiles have been intercepted over the Ukrainian Capitol city of Kyiv by Air Defense Systems, I expect more Missiles to follow as well.
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 25, 2022
KYcatTXaggie said:
Ukraine definitely showing backbone. NATO intelligence and reconnaissance has become a real force multiplier too. Despite that it looks like Russia still has enough forces to finish this out but it's going to be harder and more bloody than ole Vlad thought. Anyone else worried Putin will have to escalate the Russian attacks within Ukraine in order to accomplish his mission? I'm afraid we're going to see some severe bombing before this ends.
Yep. What's he willing to do in order to avoid being embarrassed on the global stage?
Dan Scott said:
I get the feeling Russia military sucks
Russian strength has always been an unending supply of men, and a disregard for casualties.
There is a trick any SAM operator with an IQ of 50 knows.Jayhawk said:
If the Ukes are still operating radar guided SAMs that represents a significant failure on the part of the Russians in terms of day 1 objectives.
Would not want to be one of Putin's generals in a staff meeting right now.
You never, ever turn on your active radar until the last possible moment. You rely on reports of aircraft coming your way, and calculate the arrival time. Then, you turn on the radar, fire, and turn off before the SEAD aircraft can get a lock with an anti-radiation missile. If you're a mobile launcher, you move right away.
erudite said:Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?KYcatTXaggie said:
If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.
Seems plausible. I don't see the point of using the big bombers. If it was a -22 or -160, where are the bombs?
amercer said:Dan Scott said:
I get the feeling Russia military sucks
Russian strength has always been an unending supply of men, and a disregard for casualties.
I think the more Russia struggles, the more stop caring about casualties. I'm sure they are trying their best to minimize casualties but at some point they might go F it.
S-300 is not so "mobile" as it has Tractor Erector Launcher (Big scary missile truck) separate from Radar and fire control.JB!98 said:Ah, I see now. These are mobile systems so hopefully the Ukes were able to squirrel some away for just such an event. Either way, a hard kill on a Russian asset is a good thing.Eliminatus said:Yes. I looked up their order of battle as best I could at the onset of this whole thing. The S300 is the best AA they have with a reported over 30 systems operational. Did see one on fire a while back though in a video. They are good weapons but big and emit all sorts of radiation. These are the things that should have been on Priority Target List 1 from the beginning for Russia.JB!98 said:Does Ukraine have those systems?erudite said:See post below you. Looks like S-300 intercept. Tor has "smaller" 15kg warhead.JB!98 said:I have no idea, but something just got popped and it seems it was a bad guy. I don't know that a bear would be low enough for a manpad to take it out. Could be wishful thinking on my part, but that sure looks like an aircraft being hit by a SAM of some sort.TX04Aggie said:
Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?
There is also no doubt in my mind that if these systems still live, Kiev will have some of them.
Tor and Osa on the other hand are mobile, all in ones (can be connected to other systems), and also have wire guidance capability. The Soviets expected to loose any air fight with NATO and invested extremely heavily into wire guidance and electro-optical missiles, it has come back to bite them big time like 2008 in Georgia..
Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.erudite said:Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?KYcatTXaggie said:
If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.
Rossticus said:
Inbound airborne troops, supposedly.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilyushin_Il-76
You listening to the osint stream?
Anyone have any Odessa livestreams? Commenters on one of my multistreams are saying it's getting bombed.
Dan Scott said:amercer said:Dan Scott said:
I get the feeling Russia military sucks
Russian strength has always been an unending supply of men, and a disregard for casualties.
I think the more Russia struggles, the more stop caring about casualties. I'm sure they are trying their best to minimize casualties but at some point they might go F it.
Putin/Russia will be majorly embarrassed if this lasts longer that 72 hours. Might actually embolden Eastern European allies.
Russia tried to make a move to professional military, but I still think about a quarter of their force is conscripts. The professional troops probably still lack a solid NCO corps like most of the militaries that have conscription.
It would be frankly suicidal without complete air superiority. Which the Ukrainians seem to be holding, however tenuously, in Kiev right now.GAC06 said:erudite said:Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?KYcatTXaggie said:
If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.
Seems plausible. I don't see the point of using the big bombers. If it was a -22 or -160, where are the bombs?
However, the Russians aren't exactly known for being sane. First Chechen war is a great example by sending in armored divisions without infantry support to cities.
Yep
The idiots on CNN discussing the thing shot down and many of them saying they are unaware of Ukraine having the capability to shoot down missiles.
They seem to be behind Twitter, lol
They seem to be behind Twitter, lol
Rapier108 said:Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.erudite said:Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?KYcatTXaggie said:
If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.
An Su-34 would be very nice. Imagine having to explain how one of the new generation of Russian fighter bombers got splashed by the Ukrainians.
Rossticus said:
Yep
It's an awesome resource right now!
That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.Rapier108 said:Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.erudite said:Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?KYcatTXaggie said:
If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
aeroag14 said:Rossticus said:
Yep
It's an awesome resource right now!
Incredible. For sure.
jabberwalkie09 said:Video filmed by someone on the Ground of what appears to be a Russian Aircraft getting shot down by Air Defense Systems over Kyiv about 30 minutes ago. pic.twitter.com/lQBRGGbI5X
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) February 25, 2022
There is no doubt in my mind Vlad just lost a bomber.
My wife speaks Russian and she said the guy in the video says it's a Russian plane that got hit.
Waffledynamics said:
Anyone have any Odessa livestreams? Commenters on one of my multistreams are saying it's getting bombed.
This is the only one I've seen that is still up. Most went offline about 10 hours ago.
Switch it off. They have proven to be imbeciles at literally everything else. Modern warfare is much too advanced for those smoothbrained lowbrows.redline248 said:
The idiots on CNN discussing the thing shot down and many of them saying they are unaware of Ukraine having the capability to shoot down missiles.
They seem to be behind Twitter, lol
They're both pretty darn big, 100,000lb max takeoff weight
JB!98 said:That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.Rapier108 said:Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.erudite said:Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?KYcatTXaggie said:
If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.
Definitely bigger than a fighter size. Too much fuel burning. Thinking it's a bomber. Possibly TU-22 or TU-160
Oh I agree. That's why I said earlier I think it was a TU-22M, if it was a bomber.JB!98 said:That looks like a lot more fuel and debris than a fencer or a fullback.Rapier108 said:Or SU-34. Would be nice to have knocked down one of those. It is one of Russia's newer toys. The SU-24 is late 60s vintage.erudite said:Maybe SU-24 on some sort of attack run/SEAD operation?KYcatTXaggie said:
If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.
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