***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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JB!98
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JobSecurity said:


I think Vlad just lost a TU-95!
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
2wealfth Man
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I get the feeling this is going next level here quickly. Reinforces my uninformed feeling that RUS forces are not meeting their objectives.
TX04Aggie
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Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?
Love Gun
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TX04Aggie said:

Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?

That didn't look like a plane splash with air defense. Looked more like a ballistic missile intercept.
**** Joe Biden
Rossticus
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erudite said:

fightingfarmer09 said:

Rossticus said:

Xi just announced support for Russia by sending grain to assist in offsetting any issues stemming from the conflict.


Grain they bought from us now that Biden took away their Ag trade tariffs effective this week.
I read the Sino-Russian treaty press release. At least from the Chinese version we can glean a couple things.
1) The Russian negotiating strength is not strong, they agreed to all Chinese demands.
2) China will support any Russian action in Ukraine
3) Russia will support any action in Taiwan
4) China guarantees "The basis of the foundation of the Russian state, and its economical security" This means propping up the Russian economy.
5) Russia agrees to sell natural resources to China at a below market price not stated.



They just threw down the gauntlet. Are we afraid of Taiwan now? We going to back down there because of Russia's nukes? This changes everything, IMO.
2wealfth Man
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Love Gun said:

TX04Aggie said:

Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?

That didn't look like a plane splash with air defense. Looked more like a ballistic missile intercept.
Pretty impressive if UA still has those systems intact and functional. Further reinforces the failure of RUS to meet objective in softening up Ukraine so far.
JB!98
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TX04Aggie said:

Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?
I have no idea, but something just got popped and it seems it was a bad guy. I don't know that a bear would be low enough for a manpad to take it out. Could be wishful thinking on my part, but that sure looks like an aircraft being hit by a SAM of some sort.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
erudite
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TX04Aggie said:

Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?
US blocked IDF sale of Iron Dome to Ukraine. Most likely S-300, Buk, or Tor for high level AA defense. Tor and S-300 are the only onse capable of missile interception to my knowledge.
TX04Aggie
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Thanks. Was curious if they had or we helped with some sort of Iron Dome type system for them.
Burrus86
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JB!98 said:

JobSecurity said:


I think Vlad just lost a TU-95!

Anything that begins with "tu," deserves to be shot from the sky.
JB!98
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Love Gun said:

TX04Aggie said:

Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?

That didn't look like a plane splash with air defense. Looked more like a ballistic missile intercept.
You could be right, but pay attention to the fireball on the right. It comes down like it had more aerodynamic structure than a missile. Kind of floats down in a ball of flame.
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
erudite
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JB!98 said:

TX04Aggie said:

Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?
I have no idea, but something just got popped and it seems it was a bad guy. I don't know that a bear would be low enough for a manpad to take it out. Could be wishful thinking on my part, but that sure looks like an aircraft being hit by a SAM of some sort.
See post below you. Looks like S-300 intercept. Tor has "smaller" 15kg warhead.
KYcatTXaggie
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Ukraine definitely showing backbone. NATO intelligence and reconnaissance has become a real force multiplier too. Despite that it looks like Russia still has enough forces to finish this out but it's going to be harder and more bloody than ole Vlad thought. Anyone else worried Putin will have to escalate the Russian attacks within Ukraine in order to accomplish his mission? I'm afraid we're going to see some severe bombing before this ends.
erudite
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Rossticus said:

erudite said:

fightingfarmer09 said:

Rossticus said:

Xi just announced support for Russia by sending grain to assist in offsetting any issues stemming from the conflict.


Grain they bought from us now that Biden took away their Ag trade tariffs effective this week.
I read the Sino-Russian treaty press release. At least from the Chinese version we can glean a couple things.
1) The Russian negotiating strength is not strong, they agreed to all Chinese demands.
2) China will support any Russian action in Ukraine
3) Russia will support any action in Taiwan
4) China guarantees "The basis of the foundation of the Russian state, and its economical security" This means propping up the Russian economy.
5) Russia agrees to sell natural resources to China at a below market price not stated.



They just threw down the gauntlet. Are we afraid of Taiwan now? We going to back down there because of Russia's nukes? This changes everything, IMO.
The issue with this is a twofold.
You can't beat the Russians in a military fight because it would be a fight to the death. You can't win except b strangling them economically.
You can't beat the Chinese in an economical fight since they are so much of the world's manufacturing, you need to bash their heads in with the metaphorical stick.
The issue is you can't do both at the same time. You can thank outsourcing our manufacturing for that.
BadMoonRisin
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Artillery or air? I would assume air if there is **** falling from the sky in Kiev.
jabberwalkie09
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There is no doubt in my mind Vlad just lost a bomber.
JB!98
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erudite said:

JB!98 said:

TX04Aggie said:

Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?
I have no idea, but something just got popped and it seems it was a bad guy. I don't know that a bear would be low enough for a manpad to take it out. Could be wishful thinking on my part, but that sure looks like an aircraft being hit by a SAM of some sort.
See post below you. Looks like S-300 intercept. Tor has "smaller" 15kg warhead.
Does Ukraine have those systems?
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
TRX
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N/m, read the other posts.
FJB
jabberwalkie09
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Rossticus
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erudite said:

Rossticus said:

erudite said:

fightingfarmer09 said:

Rossticus said:

Xi just announced support for Russia by sending grain to assist in offsetting any issues stemming from the conflict.


Grain they bought from us now that Biden took away their Ag trade tariffs effective this week.
I read the Sino-Russian treaty press release. At least from the Chinese version we can glean a couple things.
1) The Russian negotiating strength is not strong, they agreed to all Chinese demands.
2) China will support any Russian action in Ukraine
3) Russia will support any action in Taiwan
4) China guarantees "The basis of the foundation of the Russian state, and its economical security" This means propping up the Russian economy.
5) Russia agrees to sell natural resources to China at a below market price not stated.



They just threw down the gauntlet. Are we afraid of Taiwan now? We going to back down there because of Russia's nukes? This changes everything, IMO.
The issue with this is a twofold.
You can't beat the Russians in a military fight because it would be a fight to the death. You can't win except b strangling them economically.
You can't beat the Chinese in an economical fight since they are so much of the world's manufacturing, you need to bash their heads in with the metaphorical stick.
The issue is you can't do both at the same time. You can thank outsourcing our manufacturing for that.


Yep
aeroag14
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Sounds like it may have been a tu 22 that got shot down. Russian equivalent of a B-1b
Rapier108
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JB!98 said:

JobSecurity said:


I think Vlad just lost a TU-95!
If it was a bomber, I'd bet a TU-22M "Backfire".

Hopefully it was a TU-160 "Blackjack."
Who?mikejones!
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jabberwalkie09 said:



There is no doubt in my mind Vlad just lost a bomber.


Didn't sound like a turbo prop when it went over
Rapier108
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aeroag14 said:

Sounds like it may have been a tu 22 that got shot down. Russian equivalent of a B-1b
The TU-160 is the one similar to the B-1B, albeit much larger and faster.

TU-22M:



TU-160:

erudite
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JB!98 said:

erudite said:

JB!98 said:

TX04Aggie said:

Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?
I have no idea, but something just got popped and it seems it was a bad guy. I don't know that a bear would be low enough for a manpad to take it out. Could be wishful thinking on my part, but that sure looks like an aircraft being hit by a SAM of some sort.
See post below you. Looks like S-300 intercept. Tor has "smaller" 15kg warhead.
Does Ukraine have those systems?
Yes. Mostly older versions inherited from the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Around 5 S-300 and 5 Tor, My guess is that these are mostly based in Kiyv. 72 Buks capable of downing high flyers, and around 150 Osa-AK capable of ruining helocopters / SU-25's days.
Who?mikejones!
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Eliminatus
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JB!98 said:

erudite said:

JB!98 said:

TX04Aggie said:

Do we know anything about air defence systems in Kyiv to shoot down incoming missiles?
I have no idea, but something just got popped and it seems it was a bad guy. I don't know that a bear would be low enough for a manpad to take it out. Could be wishful thinking on my part, but that sure looks like an aircraft being hit by a SAM of some sort.
See post below you. Looks like S-300 intercept. Tor has "smaller" 15kg warhead.
Does Ukraine have those systems?
Yes. I looked up their order of battle as best I could at the onset of this whole thing. The S300 is the best AA they have with a reported over 30 systems operational. Did see one on fire a while back though in a video. They are good weapons but big and emit all sorts of radiation. These are the things that should have been on Priority Target List 1 from the beginning for Russia.

There is also no doubt in my mind that if these systems still live, Kiev will have some of them.
jabberwalkie09
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Agthatbuilds said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



There is no doubt in my mind Vlad just lost a bomber.


Didn't sound like a turbo prop when it went over

Russia has a couple of bombers that are jet. One of them is a copy of the B-1
aeroag14
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Tu 160, while looking similar to a B-1, has a TOTALLY different mission role. Tu-160 are not low level bombers. Russians use the 22s for lower level bombing, similar to the B-1s
JB!98
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Agthatbuilds said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



There is no doubt in my mind Vlad just lost a bomber.


Didn't sound like a turbo prop when it went over
The first video didn't have sound but I hope it was a higher value asset than a bear. A blackjack would be sweet. A lot of fuel was burned off in that explosion. (I realize that a bear is a high value asset as well)
Today, unfortunately, many Americans have good reason to fear that they will be victimized if they are unable to protect themselves. And today, no less than in 1791, the Second Amendment guarantees their right to do so. - Justice Samuel Alito 2022
KYcatTXaggie
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If that was a Bomber why is it flying so low? Transport doesn't make a lot of sense either.
Who?mikejones!
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jabberwalkie09 said:

Agthatbuilds said:

jabberwalkie09 said:



There is no doubt in my mind Vlad just lost a bomber.


Didn't sound like a turbo prop when it went over

Russia has a couple of bombers that are jet. One of them is a copy of the B-1


Yes, I know. Someone said they hoped it was a "bear"
Jayhawk
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If the Ukes are still operating radar guided SAMs that represents a significant failure on the part of the Russians in terms of day 1 objectives.

Would not want to be one of Putin's generals in a staff meeting right now.
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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