***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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JFABNRGR
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In reply to evan_aggie • 7:53a, 10/8/22
AG
evan_aggie said:
That's rich: "Declararion of war without rules" from the aggressor that leveled a city, targets dams, civilians, civilian train stations.

Don't forget schools, hospitals, orphanages, nuke plants, and rad exclusion zones.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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Smeghead4761
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7:56a, 10/8/22
Random thought, but if it was a truck bomb (challenging, but not impossible, due to the security scanning systems the Russians have in place), was it a suicide bomb, or did the Ukrainians (or CIA, or James Bond, or whoever) somehow sneak a bomb onto a Russian truck, and then trigger it while it was one the bridge (timer, GPS, the GWOT classic cell phone detonator, heck maybe even a link to the truck's odometer, I don't know).

Suicide bombs are almost unheard of outside of jihadi circles, and I haven't heard of the Ukrainians employing them at all.
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agent-maroon
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7:58a, 10/8/22
AG
EDIT - swear I hadn't read Smeghead's previous post. Great minds think alike!


So was the guy driving the truck bomb a Ukranian kamikaze or was it a Russian unaware of his actual cargo?

And how did they get that amount of explosive through the Russian check station sniffers? How did they (or we) get that amount of explosive together on hostile turf and then package it onto a truck?

I can hardly wait for the details to come out. This is going to make for a great non-fiction novel.
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Robk
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In reply to torrid • 8:03a, 10/8/22
torrid said:
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torrid
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8:06a, 10/8/22
AG
If it were a suicide truck bomb, a posthumous confession video from the bomber would have been released by now.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:10a, 10/8/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:


PAGING AGGIEHAWG!! PAGING AGGIEHAWG!!!
LOL. Mornin'.
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Smeghead4761
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In reply to torrid • 8:13a, 10/8/22
Martyrdom videos are a jihadi thing.

And as someone pointed out earlier, the Ukrainians generally don't brag about their scores against the Russians right after the act.
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jbeaman88
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In reply to Robk • 8:16a, 10/8/22
AG
Robk said:
CondensedFogAggie said:

Alright, this may actually be the explosion on the Kerch bridge.



Good riddance.

Happy birthday Putin. Get the **** out of Urkaine.
Bottom right-hand corner. RIGHT before the explosion. It looks like there is something creating a wake under the bridge,
Underrated post. Looks like that has to be related. Has to be something with some decent size on the surface to create that wake.
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Robk
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8:36a, 10/8/22
Don't know if this has been posted with all the bridge excitement. Seems the NPP has had its power cut again and is running off Diesal. I am sure diesel is in rather short supply (and getting shorter).

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/3588902-iaea-chief-announces-urgent-steps-to-protect-zaporizhzhia-npp.html
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74OA
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In reply to Smeghead4761 • 8:38a, 10/8/22
AG
Smeghead4761 said:
Martyrdom videos are a jihadi thing.

And as someone pointed out earlier, the Ukrainians generally don't brag about their scores against the Russians right after the act.
Ukraine does have a number of Chechen opposition fighters in its ranks. Of itself, that means nothing, but it's worth a passing thought.........
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TriAg2010
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In reply to jbeaman88 • 8:39a, 10/8/22
AG
jbeaman88 said:
Robk said:
CondensedFogAggie said:

Alright, this may actually be the explosion on the Kerch bridge.



Good riddance.

Happy birthday Putin. Get the **** out of Urkaine.
Bottom right-hand corner. RIGHT before the explosion. It looks like there is something creating a wake under the bridge,
Underrated post. Looks like that has to be related. Has to be something with some decent size on the surface to create that wake.


It looks entirely consistent with wind/wave action. Look at the other videos - such as the fire aftermath - and there's clearly a strong breeze blowing.
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agent-maroon
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8:39a, 10/8/22
AG
SIAP

Quote:
Train hit in eastern Ukraine

Meanwhile, a cargo train in Ilovaisk in the Russian-occupied Donetsk region was hit by a "powerful explosion" Saturday morning, according to the adviser to Mariupol Mayor Petro Andrushenko.

"Not only Crimea. Not only fuel tanks. There is also a cargo train in Ilovaisk. Locals report a rather powerful explosion and subsequent detonation at night. The occupiers now have big problems with supplies from both sides," Andrushenko said.
CNN article
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Not a Bot • 8:39a, 10/8/22
AG
Private PoopyPants said:


So field with some bushes and shallow holes?
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ntxVol
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8:40a, 10/8/22
From a tactical pov, what does taking down the bridge mean?

I'll hang up and listen.
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twk
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8:41a, 10/8/22
AG
We're probably in for an interesting week.

Interesting timing on this move. One could argue that cutting the escape route from Crimea isn't necessarily the best move if you think you can drive in to the peninsula and drive the Russians out like cattle. Now, if you drive into Crimea, there's no easy escape route. Given where we are on the calendar, driving the Russians out of Crimea before winter probably wasn't happening, so I suppose the relief valve theory probably wasn't a big enough reason to hold off on doing this.

With all the sabre rattling about using nuclear weapons, this is the kind of event that one would expect Putin to consider a trigger justifying use of nukes, but it's hard to see where he deploys them in a way that changes the military situation. Firing them off for the terror effect seems to be his only real option.

With winter coming, Ukraine needs to press the advantage because winter will probably end large scale offensives. The Russians could really use the breathing space, but if Ukraine continues receiving more advanced weaponry during the lull, that may offset any advantage the Russians get from slowing Ukraine's momentum.
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twk
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In reply to ntxVol • 8:47a, 10/8/22
AG
ntxVol said:
From a tactical pov, what does taking down the bridge mean?

I'll hang up and listen.
It means that Russia will have a hard time resupplying their forces from Crimea (not impossible, but it will be slowed down quite a bit, and civilian supplies for the residents of Crimea probably reduced to nothing), so cutting the "land bridge" between Crimea and Eastern Ukraine would leave the forces in Crimea extremely vulnerable. If you're a Russian south of the Dnipro River in the vicinity of Kherson, you have to wonder about your line of retreat as both options (the "land bridge" to the East and the Crimea peninsula to the South) are starting to look problematic. You would probably want to leave while you still have an option.
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TriAg2010
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In reply to twk • 8:50a, 10/8/22
AG
twk said:
Interesting timing on this move. One could argue that cutting the escape route from Crimea isn't necessarily the best move if you think you can drive in to the peninsula and drive the Russians out like cattle. Now, if you drive into Crimea, there's no easy escape route. Given where we are on the calendar, driving the Russians out of Crimea before winter probably wasn't happening, so I suppose the relief valve theory probably wasn't a big enough reason to hold off on doing this.


It is equally a Russian supply route to support their southern flank. Even if Ukraine doesn't aim to re-capture Crimea in the near-term, it will weaken those Russia's forces and perhaps allow Ukraine to focus on other objectives.
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evan_aggie
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8:52a, 10/8/22
AG
How did the train in the upper side catch fire? Was it running when this explosion occurred?
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to evan_aggie • 8:59a, 10/8/22
AG
evan_aggie said:
How did the train in the upper side catch fire? Was it running when this explosion occurred?


Debris from the explosion probably pierced the tanker cars and ignited the leaks. They're designed to hold stuff and not blow up, not to resist shrapnel and not catch fire
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Robk
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:59a, 10/8/22
Waffledynamics said:
A little better video of the explosion. This was posted earlier but as a video of someone else watching the video.

Something else somebody noted. At 17 seconds it looks like there is debris flying from the outside of the bridge
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AgLA06
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In reply to jbeaman88 • 9:03a, 10/8/22
AG
jbeaman88 said:
Robk said:
CondensedFogAggie said:

Alright, this may actually be the explosion on the Kerch bridge.



Good riddance.

Happy birthday Putin. Get the **** out of Urkaine.
Bottom right-hand corner. RIGHT before the explosion. It looks like there is something creating a wake under the bridge,
Underrated post. Looks like that has to be related. Has to be something with some decent size on the surface to create that wake.


100% this. That truck had nothing to do with the explosion.
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Robk
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9:15a, 10/8/22


This seems to indicate a missile or air bust. I say all of the above
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Gilligan
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9:15a, 10/8/22
AG
Ukes have been working on their drone boats!

Wouldn't the boat have to be large to carry enough explosives and isn't the bridge guarded by dolphins and all kinds of security?

Crazy to think about. True James Bond stuff!

Slava Ukraini!
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Robk • 9:18a, 10/8/22
AG
Robk said:
Waffledynamics said:
A little better video of the explosion. This was posted earlier but as a video of someone else watching the video.

Something else somebody noted. At 17 seconds it looks like there is debris flying from the outside of the bridge


That's debris bring blown back onto the bridge. There is a very strong breeze.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Robk • 9:19a, 10/8/22
AG
Quote:
This seems to indicate a missile or air bust. I say all of the above
That flash is curious to be sure. But a missile would be traceable< no?
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TXAggie2011
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9:19a, 10/8/22
AG
Everything in the video is moving from right to left. It wouldn't make much sense if it came from the truck
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fixer
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9:24a, 10/8/22
If that was one explosion from one truck, is it feasible to believe blast overpressure takes out or severely damages the other sections?

have to be a hellacious charge.
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FarmerFran
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9:26a, 10/8/22
AG
God bless the man that sacrificed himself in order to blow that bridge.

With men and women who are willing to martyr themselves like this Russia has no chance
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aggiehawg
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In reply to fixer • 9:27a, 10/8/22
AG
fixer said:
If that was one explosion from one truck, is it feasible to believe blast overpressure takes out or severely damages the other sections?

have to be a hellacious charge.
The debris in the immediate aftermath is also curious to me. What is that, shrapnel? Paper? Pieces of concrete?
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sclaff
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 9:28a, 10/8/22
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
Robk said:
Waffledynamics said:
A little better video of the explosion. This was posted earlier but as a video of someone else watching the video.
Something else somebody noted. At 17 seconds it looks like there is debris flying from the outside of the bridge


That's debris bring blown back onto the bridge. There is a very strong breeze.
The debris may be seawater
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agent-maroon
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:30a, 10/8/22
AG
The shredded remains of whatever they packaged the explosive in to keep the scent away from the russki sniffers, maybe?
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Gordo14
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9:32a, 10/8/22
It looks like Ukraine might be a counterattack in Tokmak away from the Russian southern front collapsing. They've been launching probing attacks and artillery strikes in this direction for a few weeks now. I think this counteroffensive is probably starting in a day or two now.
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Not a Bot
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9:35a, 10/8/22
AG


I'm not a physicist, nor am I intelligent in any way on any subject. How would a truck bomb on the surface cause that kind of uplift?
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Not a Bot
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9:36a, 10/8/22
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Not a Bot • 9:39a, 10/8/22
AG
Quote:
I'm not a physicist, nor am I intelligent in any way on any subject. How would a truck bomb on the surface cause that kind of uplift?
It wouldn't, not that I can imagine anyway.
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