***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Gilligan
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In reply to 74OA • 1:22p, 5/10/22
AG
74OA said:
txags92 said:
So here is a question. I know very little about Belgorod. So is it an important enough city to Russia that they would be upset if the Ukrainians cut it off from Russia? I know the Ukrainians don't have the troop numbers to street by street and try to capture it. But could they cut off the key roads and rail lines in or out and use it as a trade piece to get one of their cities back from Russia?
It's a major logistics hub supporting Russian forces fighting in the east. Cutting the LOCs from it to eastern Ukraine would seriously damage Russian resupply and communications.

Similarly, just getting close enough to Belgorod to threaten it would require the Russians to divert forces from Ukraine to defend it.

Ukraine is extremely unlikely to actually try to capture it as that would copy the mistake the Russians have made getting bogged down in urban warfare.
So just shell the isht out of it like Russia has done to Ukraine except don't cross the border. Hit military targets and make Russia expend resources to defend it.

Sounds like a good plan to me...
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Ag97
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1:23p, 5/10/22
AG
If they can push the Russians back to the border, theoretically, Belgorod would be within range to shell with all the new toys the West have been giving the Ukes. Not sure what the risk/reward is for shelling a Russian City. It may help hinder the Russian invasion of Ukraine but it may also cause the Russian populace to solidify firmly behind Putin and allow him to fully ramp up the war machine.
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Rossticus
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1:25p, 5/10/22
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LMCane
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In reply to 74OA • 1:27p, 5/10/22
74OA said:
txags92 said:
So here is a question. I know very little about Belgorod. So is it an important enough city to Russia that they would be upset if the Ukrainians cut it off from Russia? I know the Ukrainians don't have the troop numbers to street by street and try to capture it. But could they cut off the key roads and rail lines in or out and use it as a trade piece to get one of their cities back from Russia?
It's a major logistics hub supporting Russian forces fighting in the east. Cutting the LOCs from it to eastern Ukraine would seriously damage Russian resupply and communications.

Similarly, just getting close enough to Belgorod to threaten it would require the Russians to divert forces from Ukraine to defend it.

Ukraine is extremely unlikely to actually try to capture it as that would copy the mistake the Russians have made getting bogged down in urban warfare.

aside from the military aspects of Uke forces crossing the border and progressing dozens of miles into Russia..

there is the more important psychological aspect.

is it worth raising the risk of a WMD attack, of losing Western support, of increasing Russian citizen's anger if you invade the territory of Russia?

if this was the 1940s I would say it makes sense to invade, but with thousands of nukes which Putin discusses daily- why bother?

it's a better use of your limited manpower to retake Kherson and Izyum.
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Rossticus
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1:29p, 5/10/22
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74OA
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In reply to LMCane • 1:30p, 5/10/22
AG
LMCane said:
74OA said:
txags92 said:
So here is a question. I know very little about Belgorod. So is it an important enough city to Russia that they would be upset if the Ukrainians cut it off from Russia? I know the Ukrainians don't have the troop numbers to street by street and try to capture it. But could they cut off the key roads and rail lines in or out and use it as a trade piece to get one of their cities back from Russia?
It's a major logistics hub supporting Russian forces fighting in the east. Cutting the LOCs from it to eastern Ukraine would seriously damage Russian resupply and communications.

Similarly, just getting close enough to Belgorod to threaten it would require the Russians to divert forces from Ukraine to defend it.

Ukraine is extremely unlikely to actually try to capture it as that would copy the mistake the Russians have made getting bogged down in urban warfare.

aside from the military aspects of Uke forces crossing the border and progressing dozens of miles into Russia..

there is the more important psychological aspect.

is it worth raising the risk of a WMD attack, of losing Western support, of increasing Russian citizen's anger if you invade the territory of Russia?

if this was the 1940s I would say it makes sense to invade, but with thousands of nukes which Putin discusses daily- why bother?

it's a better use of your limited manpower to retake Kherson and Izyum.
No one is talking invasion. Look at a map. Ukraine doesn't need to cross the border or shell Belgorod itself to do what I described. UA forces are now fighting NE of Kharkiv, within just a few miles of the Balgorod- Isyium railroad line that supplies the Russians with most of their logistics supplies. Soon the UA forces will cut that railway.

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Twice an Aggie
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1:31p, 5/10/22
AG
Cut the line from Belgogrod to Izyum (that runs through Ukraine). Dig in along the border. Apply pressure to the north of the Donbass positions and stretch then even thinner with the manpower and vehicle shortages they already have.
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Ulrich
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In reply to txags92 • 1:40p, 5/10/22
txags92 said:
Ulrich said:
I think the political advantage of fighting a purely defensive war likely outweighs any logistical or tactical value of moving into Russian territory. There might be an upside in terms of morale (taking the fight to the Russians), but maybe not bigger than continuing to push the Russians off of Ukrainian land.

Without great knowledge of the ground situation, it seems like retaking Mariupol would be the greatest thing they could do for morale. Next would be cutting off the southern supply line. Those may greatly reduce Russia's ability to get Ukrainian food out of the country as well.
Retaking Mariupol would be a much more difficult task than the Ukrainians are up to at the moment. They have some momentum in the north that could carry them across the border if they wanted to push it. But I honestly think their best move would be to cut off the flow of troops and supplies south from Belgorod towards Izyum and then start trying to make the same push across the south to retake Kherson and cutoff the land access to the Crimea.

Agreed. Just thinking through how different things would affect morale. Taking Mariupol and lifting the siege on Azovstal would probably be the biggest win… it's probably not the hardest thing available but it's a looong way off.

Rolling up the right flank may be the fastest way to accrue more territory. Retaking Kherson to threaten the southern flank might be the fastest way to end the war.
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74OA
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In reply to Twice an Aggie • 1:40p, 5/10/22
AG
Twice an Aggie said:
Cut the line from Belgogrod to Izyum (that runs through Ukraine). Dig in along the border. Apply pressure to the north of the Donbass positions and stretch then even thinner with the manpower and vehicle shortages they already have.
Yep, press north and south and block the LOCs (road/rail) coming out of Belgorod where they cross the border. Tie up Russian forces intended for the Donbas fight by forcing them to keep a blocking force between the border and Belgorod.

UA forces are now fighting NE of Kharkiv, within just a few miles of the Balgorod- Isyium railroad line that supplies the Russians with most of their logistics supplies. Soon the UA forces will cut that railway.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to goatchze • 1:54p, 5/10/22
AG
goatchze said:
Rossticus said:
Best part is watching Russians trying to scoot and getting lit up on the run. The dub track, as always, is a +.


41s into that video. Look at how high that piece of vehicle flew!
I can't tell whether the speedster hit a mine or was another direct hit from artillery. To me this video shows combined use of munitions both PG and non PG. If not a mine than at least 5 of 7 direct hits on armor. Assuming some non PGM in there it kept them bracketed and or may have taken out any dismounted troops had that occurred.
Ulysses??
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Dawg6
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 1:58p, 5/10/22
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
fantasma said:
Elon's thesis in a nutshell: superior technology wins over tactical advantages.

Podcast goes into details regarding technology advantages by the West during WW2.

Russia invades Ukraine on 2/24/22. His tweet on March 1st could be his way of foreshadowing the beginning of the first Starlink war. Since 3/1/22, SpaceX has launched 6 more Starlink missions each deploying around 50 Starlink satellites. SpaceX also launched NROL-85 mission on April 19 " to deliver a critical national security payload, which will provide our warfighters and decision-makers with vital intelligence data."


Elon has a bad habit of oversimplifying complex subjects, and I think he's doing it here, too. Technology is only as useful as its user, and great technology used with poor tactics can fall prey to a determined enemy who knows what he's doing, even if he doesn't always have the weapons to match.
The Falkland Islands are a good example.
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FamousAgg
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In reply to CondensedFogAggie • 2:18p, 5/10/22
CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Hard to tell based on the video due to cuts, but at roughly a 4 second time between the drop and the explosion, it's somewhere between 200' and 400' drop
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B-1 83
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In reply to Gilligan • 2:27p, 5/10/22
AG
Gilligan said:
74OA said:
txags92 said:
So here is a question. I know very little about Belgorod. So is it an important enough city to Russia that they would be upset if the Ukrainians cut it off from Russia? I know the Ukrainians don't have the troop numbers to street by street and try to capture it. But could they cut off the key roads and rail lines in or out and use it as a trade piece to get one of their cities back from Russia?
It's a major logistics hub supporting Russian forces fighting in the east. Cutting the LOCs from it to eastern Ukraine would seriously damage Russian resupply and communications.

Similarly, just getting close enough to Belgorod to threaten it would require the Russians to divert forces from Ukraine to defend it.

Ukraine is extremely unlikely to actually try to capture it as that would copy the mistake the Russians have made getting bogged down in urban warfare.
So just shell the isht out of it like Russia has done to Ukraine except don't cross the border. Hit military targets and make Russia expend resources to defend it.

Sounds like a good plan to me...
My thoughts exactly. DO NOT INVADE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, but absolutely deny them resupply over Ukrainian territory. All the new artillery toys should help.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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74OA
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In reply to B-1 83 • 3:04p, 5/10/22
AG
B-1 83 said:
Gilligan said:
74OA said:
txags92 said:
So here is a question. I know very little about Belgorod. So is it an important enough city to Russia that they would be upset if the Ukrainians cut it off from Russia? I know the Ukrainians don't have the troop numbers to street by street and try to capture it. But could they cut off the key roads and rail lines in or out and use it as a trade piece to get one of their cities back from Russia?
It's a major logistics hub supporting Russian forces fighting in the east. Cutting the LOCs from it to eastern Ukraine would seriously damage Russian resupply and communications.

Similarly, just getting close enough to Belgorod to threaten it would require the Russians to divert forces from Ukraine to defend it.

Ukraine is extremely unlikely to actually try to capture it as that would copy the mistake the Russians have made getting bogged down in urban warfare.
So just shell the isht out of it like Russia has done to Ukraine except don't cross the border. Hit military targets and make Russia expend resources to defend it.

Sounds like a good plan to me...
My thoughts exactly. DO NOT INVADE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, but absolutely deny them resupply over Ukrainian territory. All the new artillery toys should help.
UA forces are now fighting NE of Kharkiv, within just a few miles of the Balgorod- Isyium railroad line that supplies the Russians with most of their logistics supplies. Soon the UA forces will cut that railway without crossing into Russia.
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to FamousAgg • 3:22p, 5/10/22
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AG
BattleGrackle said:
CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Hard to tell based on the video due to cuts, but at roughly a 4 second time between the drop and the explosion, it's somewhere between 200' and 400' drop

Obviously it depends on the drone itself as well as the propellers used on that drone, but 200' or so is roughly when I stop being able to hear my drone. Pretty crazy that the dude never heard it coming.
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
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one MEEN Ag
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 3:30p, 5/10/22
AG
My buddy was flying a nice consumer drone in my backyard. He flew it out of signal range and it was autohoming back to my backyard. It was way beyond visual sight when it started coming back. I knew the exact direction it would be coming back from, went outside and looked for it against a clear blue sky.

I still couldn't see it. I missed it and it was directly over my head before we both realized it had completed the autohoming feature.

And this is a drone that is just a consumer level. No mechanical engineering teams working on stealth and sound reduction capabilities beyond just consumer pressures.

I can totally understand those guys not spotting drones.
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TexAg1987
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 3:30p, 5/10/22
Red Pear Realty said:
BattleGrackle said:
CondensedFoggyAggie said:

Hard to tell based on the video due to cuts, but at roughly a 4 second time between the drop and the explosion, it's somewhere between 200' and 400' drop

Obviously it depends on the drone itself as well as the propellers used on that drone, but 200' or so is roughly when I stop being able to hear my drone. Pretty crazy that the dude never heard it coming.
Probably don't have to fire too many RPGs before your hearing is toast.
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MeatDr
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3:32p, 5/10/22
AG
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MouthBQ98
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3:32p, 5/10/22
AG
I've seen some reports about combat in drone environments and the soldiers are aware they are there but tend to forget about them after a while as they're mostly just observing. They know they're being watched but there's nothing they can do. The resulting complacency results in armed drones being ignored.
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MouthBQ98
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3:34p, 5/10/22
AG
I'm surprised they don't issue more tracer ammunition and actually try to shoot them down with LMG. They are small but one good hit would take them out.
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MeatDr
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3:38p, 5/10/22
AG
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 3:39p, 5/10/22
AG
MouthBQ98 said:
I'm surprised they don't issue more tracer ammunition and actually try to shoot them down with LMG. They are small but one good hit would take them out.


What goes up comes down, and tracers up into the air gives away your position just as well as a drone.
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Straight Talk
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3:47p, 5/10/22
AG
Just a thank you post to all of you technical types and Military types who make this the most interesting thread on the site. Interesting to try and understand the situation in Ukraine and going through the information provided here had become a daily routine for me. Keep it up and let's hope these people get to a good place eventually.
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Rossticus
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3:50p, 5/10/22
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 3:56p, 5/10/22
AG
Good point. I'd still enjoy using a good optic and single shots to try to see if I could hit one of it was within a few hundred yards and I could see it. Without knowing distance it would take serious skill even if it was still.

Ultimately, the only good anti drone weapon would be a short range optical homing drone or guided rocket with a small proximity warhead. Those could be made fairly portable single use tube launched devices and reasonably cheap and I'm surprised designs aren't starting to be fielded. Drones are doing speeds up to maybe 50-80 mph. A 150-200 mph very basic guided rocket or 100mph homing killer drone would do it.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to Rossticus • 3:57p, 5/10/22
AG
He's not wrong. As appalling as WWII was, most of those responsible and many who committed and participated in the most heinous crimes pretty much got at with it.
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TXAggie2011
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4:02p, 5/10/22
AG
Defeat Russia on the battlefield and Putin will live a troubled and unhappy existence until he dies from heat failure in a few years
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lb3
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In reply to 74OA • 4:11p, 5/10/22
AG
74OA said:
B-1 83 said:
Gilligan said:
74OA said:
txags92 said:
So here is a question. I know very little about Belgorod. So is it an important enough city to Russia that they would be upset if the Ukrainians cut it off from Russia? I know the Ukrainians don't have the troop numbers to street by street and try to capture it. But could they cut off the key roads and rail lines in or out and use it as a trade piece to get one of their cities back from Russia?
It's a major logistics hub supporting Russian forces fighting in the east. Cutting the LOCs from it to eastern Ukraine would seriously damage Russian resupply and communications.

Similarly, just getting close enough to Belgorod to threaten it would require the Russians to divert forces from Ukraine to defend it.

Ukraine is extremely unlikely to actually try to capture it as that would copy the mistake the Russians have made getting bogged down in urban warfare.
So just shell the isht out of it like Russia has done to Ukraine except don't cross the border. Hit military targets and make Russia expend resources to defend it.

Sounds like a good plan to me...
My thoughts exactly. DO NOT INVADE RUSSIAN TERRITORY, but absolutely deny them resupply over Ukrainian territory. All the new artillery toys should help.
UA forces are now fighting NE of Kharkiv, within just a few miles of the Balgorod- Isyium railroad line that supplies the Russians with most of their logistics supplies. Soon the UA forces will cut that railway without crossing into Russia.
It could be valuable crossing a few km into Russia. The embarrassment for Putin would likely force a counter offensive which would draw troops from the South and east to a place and time of Ukraine's choosing.

If Ukraine could capture and hold unpopulated Russian territory for little cost, it might be able to be negotiated for Russian held territory that may be more costly to recover.
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74OA
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In reply to MeatDr • 4:12p, 5/10/22
AG
MeatDr said:
Seeing Russia send the bulk of its force in the east to mount the offensive in the Donbas, Ukraine recognized that the enemy was only keeping a modest blocking force just to the north around Kharkov. So, Ukraine decided to weight its force up north and attack the weaker Russian force at Kharkov, while economizing on force vs the stronger Russian force in the Donbas by standing strictly on the defensive. Offensive success around Kharkov has now allowed Ukraine to free the city from shelling and close on the LOCs essential for the large Russian force in Donbas, potentially disrupting the entire Russian attack. Brilliant.

"Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics." Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC
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Rossticus
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In reply to 74OA • 4:22p, 5/10/22
If they can secure Vovchans'k and Prykolotne then everything along that Russian axis gets strangled to death for the most part. Then you can concentrate on Kherson.

Edit: Would ideally like to cut off the rail line to Kup'yans'k also.
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74OA
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4:24p, 5/10/22
AG
SWITCHBLADE
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DCPD158
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In reply to 74OA • 4:25p, 5/10/22
AG
74OA said:
MeatDr said:
Seeing Russia send the bulk of its force in the east to mount the offensive in the Donbas, Ukraine recognized that the enemy was only keeping a modest blocking force just to the north around Kharkov. So, Ukraine decided to weight its force up north and attack the weaker Russian force at Kharkov, while economizing on force vs the stronger Russian force in the Donbas by standing strictly on the defensive. Offensive success around Kharkov has now allowed Ukraine to free the city from shelling and close on the LOCs essential for the large Russian force in Donbas, potentially disrupting the entire Russian attack. Brilliant.

"Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics." Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC
Ukraine will start shelling all roads, bridges and railways NE of Kharkiv right at the Russian border. If it moves, it will die. Not a good move by RU
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
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lb3
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4:32p, 5/10/22
AG
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74OA
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In reply to DCPD158 • 4:34p, 5/10/22
AG
DCPD158 said:
74OA said:
MeatDr said:
Seeing Russia send the bulk of its force in the east to mount the offensive in the Donbas, Ukraine recognized that the enemy was only keeping a modest blocking force just to the north around Kharkov. So, Ukraine decided to weight its force up north and attack the weaker Russian force at Kharkov, while economizing on force vs the stronger Russian force in the Donbas by standing strictly on the defensive. Offensive success around Kharkov has now allowed Ukraine to free the city from shelling and close on the LOCs essential for the large Russian force in Donbas, potentially disrupting the entire Russian attack. Brilliant.

"Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics." Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC
Ukraine will start shelling all roads, bridges and railways NE of Kharkiv right at the Russian border. If it moves, it will die. Not a good move by RU
Once Ukraine either physically cuts the Russian LOCs east of Kharkov or is able to interdict them by fire, it can then dig in and go on the defensive in the north and shift forces south to the Donbas to help expel what will be an increasingly supply-starved main Russian force there.
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FriscoKid
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In reply to lb3 • 4:39p, 5/10/22
AG
Ah, the attack of the chandelier!
Hillary paid for warrant to spy on Trump.
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