***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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deddog
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:37p, 4/29/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Rossticus said:
Not to mention likely overwhelming conventional strikes by Allie's on Russian targets within Ukraine. It would seal their defeat and economic ruin.
That's what I think would happen in response to that as well. Our and other NATO planes come into Ukraine en masse and wipe the Russians out of the sky first and establish air superiority over Ukraine and the Black Sea. Take out the Russian ships and ground units after that.

If Putin fires off another one, Moscow will be glassed.
Why do you think this happens?

Putins troops have been destroying Ukrainian cities and massacring civilians for the last 2 months. Not one ally has committed their own soldiers to actively take part in the conflict. The Russian will almost certainly get away with a tactical nuke. What's stopping them right now, is the absolutely colossal economic damage and isolation that will follow.

NATO is not going to risk a nuclear war over Ukraine.
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txags92
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In reply to deddog • 3:38p, 4/29/22
AG
deddog said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Rossticus said:
They are trying to convince themselves they have the end all of first strike weapons. But as the host pointed out. No one survives what follows. It would be a reset on the magnitude of all the continents shifting at once into subduction zones.
If things get desperate they could launch a "small" / tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
NATO would not respond. Guaranteed.

However, Russia would then reach levels of isolation that even NKorea hasn't.
I don't believe the bolded part. We may not respond with a retaliatory nuclear strike, but I could see us releasing the hounds in our Air Force/Navy to obliterate anything sailing in the Black Sea and anything resembling a military target on the Russian side of the border within 100 KM of Ukraine.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to deddog • 3:41p, 4/29/22
AG
Quote:
NATO is not going to risk a nuclear war over Ukraine.
NATO is not the one risking nuclear war. Nor did I say NATO would retaliate with nukes, just conventional weapons. That's not an escalation, it is a proportional response.
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to FriscoKid • 3:42p, 4/29/22
AG
It's almost as if he were being tracked. By his cell phone.
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:43p, 4/29/22
AG
China's arm would be twisted. Firmly.
In addition to neutering the Russian front lines.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to deddog • 3:45p, 4/29/22
AG
deddog said:
But the Russians can continue to fight, and will continue to fight with their ****ty archaic weaponry if need be. They have been in worse positions before and survived.


I disagree. This is entirely different than anything they've been in before. WWII they were having their ***es kicked and they fought back, but they did so with a lot of American help. The only reason they were able to take on the Germans was because we gave them the food, fuel, and vehicles to do so. The Soviets may have had the tanks to push back the Germans, but those are nothing without ability to move and supply them. That was mostly us. Without our help, the Russians would have lacked the logistical apparatus to beat them.

As it is, the Russians are on their own. They can continue using archaic weaponry, but the Ukrainians' more modern weapons will wage a more effective and efficient war, not to mention their better training and tactics. The Russians are good at throwing men at a problem and dying, but this time I don't think that will be enough.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 3:47p, 4/29/22
AG
Ag In Ok said:
China's arm would be twisted. Firmly.
In addition to neutering the Russian front lines.
Yeah. China would not be in a good spot if Putin fires off a nuke in Ukraine or even elsewhere.
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deddog
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:48p, 4/29/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
NATO is not going to risk a nuclear war over Ukraine.
NATO is not the one risking nuclear war. Nor did I say NATO would retaliate with nukes, just conventional weapons. That's not an escalation, it is a proportional response.
Got it.
No doubt they will definitely up the ante. Significantly. Still don't see NATO directly getting involved, even conventionally.
If for any reason (other than the whole nuclear WWIII thing), that there are still significant number of options available to NATO to completely break Russia's back without getting involved directly

We've armed Ukrainians with a fraction of lethal weaponry available to us. You will see volunteers like you've never seen before, many of them being regulars "volunteering" to fight in Ukraine, with far more support from NATO than currently. Intelligence can be a lot more overt. And it's going to be a lot easier to get Asian countries to go along with NATO in order to completely isolate Putin.
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Rossticus
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3:49p, 4/29/22

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FriscoKid
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 3:57p, 4/29/22
AG
Ag In Ok said:
It's almost as if he were being tracked. By his cell phone.
AND, that's in Mariupol where the Russians have "100% complete control". They do not have total control of that city and they are still bleeding in trying to take it.
Hillary paid for warrant to spy on Trump.
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JFABNRGR
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:58p, 4/29/22
AG
aggiehawg said:
Ag In Ok said:
China's arm would be twisted. Firmly.
In addition to neutering the Russian front lines.
Yeah. China would not be in a good spot if Putin fires off a nuke in Ukraine or even elsewhere.
Speaking of China. This might be some very high level messaging or some SM comic.

Either way I kind of like the map other than china but not sure whats out there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/ueswwl/chinese_state_television_showed_a_map_depicting/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
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Rossticus
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3:59p, 4/29/22
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txags92
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 4:02p, 4/29/22
AG
JFABNRGR said:
aggiehawg said:
Ag In Ok said:
China's arm would be twisted. Firmly.
In addition to neutering the Russian front lines.
Yeah. China would not be in a good spot if Putin fires off a nuke in Ukraine or even elsewhere.
Speaking of China. This might be some very high level messaging or some SM comic.

Either way I kind of like the map other than china but not sure whats out there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/ueswwl/chinese_state_television_showed_a_map_depicting/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
I wouldn't want any part of a map that gave us a land border with China. Just let Japan have our part. I noticed they got left off the map.
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Rossticus
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4:04p, 4/29/22
I hate it when I'm right about things I don't want to be right about. Still hope I'm not right. Please be wrong.

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Rossticus
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4:07p, 4/29/22
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Faustus
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:08p, 4/29/22
NM.
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benchmark
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In reply to deddog • 4:14p, 4/29/22
AG
deddog said:
If things get desperate they could launch a "small" / tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
NATO would not respond. Guaranteed.

However, Russia would then reach levels of isolation that even NKorea hasn't.
My guess, NATO would definitely respond .... likely with longer range precision weapons currently unavailable. i.e. Harpoons, Patriots, F16's, and SSM's that can target nearby Russian airfields, harbors, supply depots, and bridges.
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GAC06
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:22p, 4/29/22
AG
The bigger, two engined UAV in the Bayraktar family Is powered by Ukrainian turboprops. Wouldn't be surprised if there is other collaboration

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baykar_Bayraktar_Aknc
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Player To Be Named Later
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4:28p, 4/29/22
AG
https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russian-marine-zapped-by-rifle-fire-in-mariupol/

Holy piss poor tactics Batman.....

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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:29p, 4/29/22
AG
The goal was for the "war" to be over by May 9th and now its the day when they are going to formily announce it? Keep moving the goalpost Putin
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 4:31p, 4/29/22
AG
No covering fire while they crossed, also notice they killed the guy carrying the RPG. From the looks of it that guy was DRT
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 4:33p, 4/29/22
AG
P.U.T.U said:
The goal was for the "war" to be over by May 9th and now its the day when they are going to formily announce it? Keep moving the goalpost Putin


Ukraine resisted the "special operation," so now it's war.

The trick is leaving somewhere to move goalposts.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 4:40p, 4/29/22
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
P.U.T.U said:
The goal was for the "war" to be over by May 9th and now its the day when they are going to formily announce it? Keep moving the goalpost Putin


Ukraine resisted the "special operation," so now it's war.

The trick is leaving somewhere to move goalposts.
Actually by not calling it an official war, Putin is limited in ordering conscription of troops. If they are in a declared war, he doesn't those restrictions.
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Rossticus
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In reply to aggiehawg • 4:47p, 4/29/22
aggiehawg said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
P.U.T.U said:
The goal was for the "war" to be over by May 9th and now its the day when they are going to formily announce it? Keep moving the goalpost Putin


Ukraine resisted the "special operation," so now it's war.

The trick is leaving somewhere to move goalposts.
Actually by not calling it an official war, Putin is limited in ordering conscription of troops. If they are in a declared war, he doesn't those restrictions.


Has to declare war to conscript more fresh faced Russians for the meat grinder.
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Fitch
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:11p, 4/29/22
AG
Rossticus said:
I hate it when I'm right about things I don't want to be right about. Still hope I'm not right. Please be wrong.

That would suuuuuuucck.
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deddog
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 5:13p, 4/29/22
AG
Player To Be Named Later said:
https://funker530.com/video/nsfw-russian-marine-zapped-by-rifle-fire-in-mariupol/

Holy piss poor tactics Batman.....

Not sure of tactics (i figure the first guy crossing over is the safest).
It's interesting that the Russian soldier waited for the smoke to stop billowing before pulling his buddy out of the line of fire (his buddy looked dead or grievously wounded)
Maybe he was waiting till the rest of his squad got their shi$ together and gave him some cover fire
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Fitch
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5:14p, 4/29/22
AG
Good podcast that touches on a general mobilization and how the Donbas offensive is likely the last offensive campaign of the war baring general mobilization, among other things.

Also available on apple podcasts + others.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/
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deddog
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In reply to Fitch • 5:16p, 4/29/22
AG
Fitch said:
Rossticus said:
I hate it when I'm right about things I don't want to be right about. Still hope I'm not right. Please be wrong.

That would suuuuuuucck.
It's inevitable.
Putin will say that the special operation was on the way to success but all of the NATO allies are supporting the nazis, so NATO has forced him to call on all Russians to fight for the Motherland.

No one will believe his bull***** But they'll do it anyway.
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DCPD158
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In reply to deddog • 5:28p, 4/29/22
AG
deddog said:
Fitch said:
Rossticus said:
I hate it when I'm right about things I don't want to be right about. Still hope I'm not right. Please be wrong.

That would suuuuuuucck.
It's inevitable.
Putin will say that the special operation was on the way to success but all of the NATO allies are supporting the nazis, so NATO has forced him to call on all Russians to fight for the Motherland.

No one will believe his bull***** But they'll do it anyway.
and what are they going to arm these troops that come about from a general mobilization with? Where is the ammo going to come from? The vehicles, the armor?
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
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Ernest Tucker
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In reply to Rossticus • 5:35p, 4/29/22
AG
Rossticus said:
I hate it when I'm right about things I don't want to be right about. Still hope I'm not right. Please be wrong.



Putin is ready to double down and sacrifice his countries future. Guess he is itching to find out why modern german men are so castrated
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FamousAgg
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In reply to txags92 • 5:41p, 4/29/22
txags92 said:
JFABNRGR said:
aggiehawg said:
Ag In Ok said:
China's arm would be twisted. Firmly.
In addition to neutering the Russian front lines.
Yeah. China would not be in a good spot if Putin fires off a nuke in Ukraine or even elsewhere.
Speaking of China. This might be some very high level messaging or some SM comic.

Either way I kind of like the map other than china but not sure whats out there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/ueswwl/chinese_state_television_showed_a_map_depicting/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
I wouldn't want any part of a map that gave us a land border with China. Just let Japan have our part. I noticed they got left off the map.


Why would Belarus get anything? They are an accomplice in all this, they should be absorbed too.


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deddog
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In reply to DCPD158 • 5:43p, 4/29/22
AG
DCPD158 said:
deddog said:
Fitch said:
Rossticus said:
I hate it when I'm right about things I don't want to be right about. Still hope I'm not right. Please be wrong.

That would suuuuuuucck.
It's inevitable.
Putin will say that the special operation was on the way to success but all of the NATO allies are supporting the nazis, so NATO has forced him to call on all Russians to fight for the Motherland.

No one will believe his bull***** But they'll do it anyway.
and what are they going to arm these troops that come about from a general mobilization with? Where is the ammo going to come from? The vehicles, the armor?
Russians have a lot of old armor and vehicles in storage - questionable maintenance, sure. But there's countries that still use T-55s and T-34s. They have a lot of old, rugged, low tech weaponry,
But more than that, they will just commit a ridiculous amount of soldiers. conscripts
This is Russia we are talking about. They will think nothing of sending their men to die even if they send them with WWII rifles and a few bullets. It's been the Russian mentality for almost 100 years now.

They will try to take Donbas by sheer weight of numbers because, well, they have no other choice.
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FarmerFran
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In reply to Ernest Tucker • 5:46p, 4/29/22
AG
Ernest Tucker said:
Rossticus said:
I hate it when I'm right about things I don't want to be right about. Still hope I'm not right. Please be wrong.



Putin is ready to double down and sacrifice his countries future. Guess he is itching to find out why modern german men are so castrated


Idk could be wrong but I just don't see it. At such a point NATO would virtually have to get involved in direct conflict.

Edit - Does the only way this end is with Putins assasination?
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aggiehawg
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In reply to FarmerFran • 6:00p, 4/29/22
AG
Quote:
Idk could be wrong but I just don't see it. At such a point NATO would virtually have to get involved in direct conflict.

Edit - Does the only way this end is with Putins assasination?
Not necessarily. If China finally perceives they are under too much threat or pressure, Putin's government collapses.
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Jayhawk
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6:03p, 4/29/22
Putin LARP'd as a chessmaster so hard that he turned his country into a petty tributary client of the Chinese empire.
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