There's just no way. Ukraine's military isn't capable of that kind of operation given the existing dynamics. Gut wrenching but reality.
***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]
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Rossticus said:
Is interesting how Russia manages to get so much video of Ukrainians in the act of purportedly committing atrocities in Ukraine. It also seems that each time a video is released by Russian sources, it's deconstructed, leading to a successively released video that addresses those weaknesses.There's a new video of Ukrainian soldiers posing with dead Russian soldiers somewhere near Kharkov, some of the dead have their hands tied behind their backs, clearly indicating execution.
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 4, 2022
I wouldn't bother with that account. You already know it's Russian based propaganda.
I knew we and other nations had way too many surveillance assets to be able to blow the Russian claims out of the water. Was ludicrous for Putin to believe otherwise.Rossticus said:🇺🇦⚡️🇷🇺#BREAKING: Satellite photos show bodies lay in Bucha for weeks, disproving Russia's claim that the scene was staged after they left
— The RAGE X - Intel (@theragex) April 4, 2022
Source: MAXAR #Russia #Ukraine | Day 40 pic.twitter.com/esu7TfQ19r
Armor moving in the US. Probably to be given as backfill for Eastern Euro T-72s to Ukraine.
The Qatari machine has visual differences: auxiliary cooling and power supply systems, a director of interference with the gun barrel. Arabic inscriptions are also visible on board the tank.
— The RAGE X - Intel (@theragex) April 4, 2022
AgLA06 said:
No chance. Strategically it would leave them exposed to try and do so. Makes more sense to go after Kherson.
Yeah, I think I remember that being the justification. I read so much on this it sorta blurs together sometimes. Especially late at night when I'm digging. I mean, the cold calculus of war says this is probably the right move. How many armies have been lost fighting over strategic nulls? Mariupol is a zero sum game for Ukraine right now on paper.
Maybe as a moral victory though it might be worth it? Throwing away an army on Stalingrad was stupid. Throwing away a few bombers to attack Tokyo in 1942 was war changing.
There IS a time to surrender. BUT, surrendering only makes sense if the enemy has some sort of honor/integrity. Russia does not have that right now so there is 0 chance I would surrender in this case knowing in all likelihood they would just kill me. Better to go down fighting or resisting in whatever way possible than to just stand there and let them kill you without resistance.GAC06 said:NavyAg92 said:RebelE Infantry said:MouthBQ98 said:
If they ran out of food and ammunition, they have no means to continue their fight. They did their jobs: fight until they could not and hope for relief, while typing up enemy forces.
This. They conducted a tenacious defense and gave a good account of themselves. There is no dishonor in surrender at this point, especially when the only alternative appears to be a pointless death.
Yeah, this is a dumb take. I'm former military with three decades of service and we wouldn't lay down to the enemy. You can quit but not those of us fighting for country.
We used to say before we went into war zones that people like you were first to be shot, so people like me could do battle. Don't want anyone around that's not going to guard my six even if we ran out of ammo. We improvise and fight until death. That's the American way.
Good Lord
Eliminatus said:Rossticus said:
Is interesting how Russia manages to get so much video of Ukrainians in the act of purportedly committing atrocities in Ukraine. It also seems that each time a video is released by Russian sources, it's deconstructed, leading to a successively released video that addresses those weaknesses.There's a new video of Ukrainian soldiers posing with dead Russian soldiers somewhere near Kharkov, some of the dead have their hands tied behind their backs, clearly indicating execution.
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 4, 2022
I wouldn't bother with that account. You already know it's Russian based propaganda.
I know it is but it's important to be aware of the smoke that the other side is blowing. Ignoring the disinfo allows it to later be inserted as credible additions to the narrative like Russia was able to do with Crimea and Donbas.
It's easier to note it in real time than to deconstruct it all in piecemeal fashion after the fact. You saw that take place here for weeks when this all kicked off and it was like untangling a ball of Christmas lights.
Additional Naval assets nearing Europe.
The NATO Battle Group lead by the USS Harry S. Truman Aircraft Carrier still continues to Operate off the Coast of Italy in the Mediterranean and the NATO Battle Group lead by the HMS Prince of Whales Aircraft Carrier continues to Operate off the Coast of Norway in the North Sea. pic.twitter.com/ZynSHjgUGw
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 4, 2022
I think people are letting the recent pics from Bucha color their vision. We know the Russians are taking prisoners and not killing them at least partly because people are showing up in propaganda vids. They've also done prisoner exchanges, including of the border guard who told the ship to GFY.
Trained veteran combat soldiers are worth a lot. Throwing those lives away to charge an AFV or machine gun nest with a knife or a rock when you're out of food and ammo for some bizarre sense of honor is stupid. Better to gamble on a prisoner exchange or tie up Russian soldiers guarding you or chance an escape when you're in a lightly guarded Russian rear area.
I mean consider this - the Nazis in WWII were doing far worse than Bucha and we surrendered to them when surrounded, out of ammo, etc. This really isn't that different.
Trained veteran combat soldiers are worth a lot. Throwing those lives away to charge an AFV or machine gun nest with a knife or a rock when you're out of food and ammo for some bizarre sense of honor is stupid. Better to gamble on a prisoner exchange or tie up Russian soldiers guarding you or chance an escape when you're in a lightly guarded Russian rear area.
I mean consider this - the Nazis in WWII were doing far worse than Bucha and we surrendered to them when surrounded, out of ammo, etc. This really isn't that different.
We are getting visual confirmation of Ukraine officially retaking the Chernihiv border crossing and officially ending the Russian occupation in the north pic.twitter.com/wXD24vDWbS
— OSINT UK (@jon96179496) April 4, 2022
Upon my rough estimates, Russia in fact has withdrawn from nearly 40% (!) of the territories it occupied in Ukraine since February 24. Within just 2 or 3 days.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 4, 2022
The the whole of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy regions.
The war’s phase 1 is Russia’s crushing defeat.
Now phase 2 is begins. pic.twitter.com/zbA7fHLpvT
Belligcat's destruction of the Russian claims re: Bucha. One tidbit:
Read the rest HERE
Quote:
Yet these videos from inside Bucha have also been used by the Russian Ministry of Defence and Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to posit that some of the corpses were moving and therefore that the footage was a fabrication.
In an April 3 Telegram post from the Russian Ministry of Defense, re-shared by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a video published by Ukraine's Espreso.tv is used to make the claim that one corpse is seen raising its arm, and another is seen sitting up.
These claims, seemingly sourced from pro-Russian social media users, were rapidly and thoroughly debunked by reporters and social media users, including BBC Monitoring's Shayan Sardarizadeh.
Sardarizadeh highlighted the work of Aurora Intel which examined the "moving hand" claim and demonstrated it was more likely a water droplet moving across the windscreen.
It is also notable that the version of the video shared on social media by people claiming a hand can be seen moving cuts out the moment before and after the droplet moves over the body. This appears to misleadingly strengthen the impression of a hand movement, as detailed in the below post by Sardarizadeh.
3) First is the claim a dead civilian's arm is moving, showing them to be alive.
— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) April 3, 2022
Slow down the video, as @AuroraIntel has, and you can clearly see there's either a spot or a raindrop on the screen, looking as if the body's moving in low-res clips. pic.twitter.com/OgVov8oX9t
Read the rest HERE
They may have withdrawn from 40% but I fully expect them to double down and push from the southeast. This should really test the Ukrainian military's ability to re-deploy their forces. I suspect they'll be getting some good intel from the US and NATO via satellite on the re-deployment of Russian forces to assist.
RebelE Infantry said:TRM said:RebelE Infantry said:MouthBQ98 said:
If they ran out of food and ammunition, they have no means to continue their fight. They did their jobs: fight until they could not and hope for relief, while typing up enemy forces.
This. They conducted a tenacious defense and gave a good account of themselves. There is no dishonor in surrender at this point, especially when the only alternative appears to be a pointless death.
Given the Russians previous conduct, I think the Russians are going to kill them either way and if that's the case, they should fight to the last man.
A very easy thing to say…
Also, the possibility exists that the entire Russian army is not a bloodthirsty mongol horde
After the mass murders that russia has committed aurrender mrans execution.
I would choose to go out fighting amd take a few with me.
consuming a little bit of Russian news propaganda along with all the western news propaganda we are inundated with might help keep people more even keeled. There's so much out there it's hard to ever know the truth of anything. Click the tread and find those videos at your own risk though.Eliminatus said:Rossticus said:
Is interesting how Russia manages to get so much video of Ukrainians in the act of purportedly committing atrocities in Ukraine. It also seems that each time a video is released by Russian sources, it's deconstructed, leading to a successively released video that addresses those weaknesses.There's a new video of Ukrainian soldiers posing with dead Russian soldiers somewhere near Kharkov, some of the dead have their hands tied behind their backs, clearly indicating execution.
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 4, 2022
I wouldn't bother with that account. You already know it's Russian based propaganda.
There's also an extended version of the same video where a wounded soldier is executed. You can find it on the Telegram channel "Voenacher" if you feel so inclined, although I recommend against it. https://t.co/Nk0BmQihum
— Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) April 4, 2022
If you did not think it could get any worse, Putin is Hitler and Stalin combined...I struggled with the right emoji.
Bad analogy. Ask any Marine if they would've surrendered if surrounded at Saipan, Iwo Jima, Okinawa. Tarawa, etc.pocketrockets06 said:
I mean consider this - the Nazis in WWII were doing far worse than Bucha and we surrendered to them when surrounded, out of ammo, etc. This really isn't that different.
Good point. While you didn't want to surrender in Europe, you'd rather die than be captured by the Japanese.benchmark said:Bad analogy. Ask any Marine if they would've surrendered if surrounded at Saipan, Iwo Jima, Okinawa. Tarawa, etc.pocketrockets06 said:
I mean consider this - the Nazis in WWII were doing far worse than Bucha and we surrendered to them when surrounded, out of ammo, etc. This really isn't that different.
I sure hope Russia isn't as bad as that. But we're not hearing good things from the front lines.
The nazis, evil as they were, tended to treat surrendering western soldiers humanely. The nazis considered the British/French/Americans as poor cousins, but still part of the family. They saw most of the eastern opponents as subhuman.
The Ukrainians believe the Russians would treat them as subhuman.
The Ukrainians believe the Russians would treat them as subhuman.
IMO, for the long term viability of UKR (and the rest of the good world) has or should have two main immediate priorities. One is take back control of the Dneiper River all the way to the sea PLUS at least 20 KM on the other side for Indirect Fires buffer. Second to block the russian's from having a land bridge to crimea. Ideally Kherson to Berdiansk along the E56/M14 to include the R37 back up towards Zaporizhia.
Ultimately drive them completely out of Ukraine including crimea and the donbasks. Figure any independence out there later if required.
Without effective air assets and or direct help from others this is going to be a lot more difficult and the toll much greater with russians digging in and improving, while being a lot more wide open country. Somehow they are going to have to figure out to hide in the open and or utilize a lot more longer distance weapons drones etc in conjunction with an awful lot of small anti-armor hunter killer teams.
Ultimately drive them completely out of Ukraine including crimea and the donbasks. Figure any independence out there later if required.
Without effective air assets and or direct help from others this is going to be a lot more difficult and the toll much greater with russians digging in and improving, while being a lot more wide open country. Somehow they are going to have to figure out to hide in the open and or utilize a lot more longer distance weapons drones etc in conjunction with an awful lot of small anti-armor hunter killer teams.
Need to blow this puppy up as well.Quote:
Second to block the russian's from having a land bridge to crimea. Ideally Kherson to Berdiansk along the E56/M14 to include the R37 back up towards Zaporizhia.
Kerch Strait Bridge.
oh no said:
consuming a little bit of Russian news propaganda along with all the western news propaganda we are inundated with might help keep people more even keeled. There's so much out there it's hard to ever know the truth of anything. Click the tread and find those videos at your own risk though.
" There's so much out there it's hard to ever know the truth of anything."
This is the literal objective of Russian disinformation ops. Don't stop fighting to find the truth and differentiate right from wrong.
They don't want to win you to their side. They just want to drive everyone to apathy so that they can do whatever they wish without resistance.
My grandfather was captured by the Nazis at Salerno and held as a POW in Poland. He froze his ass off and lost weight but never talked about being mistreated. He and a couple of other officers escaped when the Nazis were retreating from the Russian advance. While walking their way to safety they encountered a Russian patrol that stole their food at gunpoint but didn't kill them before moving on. Some Polish farmers gave them just enough that they didn't starve and they caught a rail car to Odessa & a British ship of some kind.
My grandfather hated the Germans, but he really, really, REALLY hated the Russians after that.
My grandfather hated the Germans, but he really, really, REALLY hated the Russians after that.
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Look, this is far from my dream weapon but because of all you generous people I put an ACOG scope on my rifle juxtaposed with a top mounted reflex sight. I also have off set side rails with laser light combos coming soon. We will be the best of the best! pic.twitter.com/1R3EIs9rk7
— James Vasquez (@jmvasquez1974) April 4, 2022
By contrast, the members of the Afrika Corp that were in Camp Hearne were treated very very well. Some of them even married local girls and became US citizens.
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 4, 2022
When your enemy's gov and mainstream culture has a 100 yr history of endorsing and implementing "ethnic cleansing" as an official wartime doctrine ... I would never willingly surrender. Never.Decay said:
I sure hope Russia isn't as bad as that. But we're not hearing good things from the front line.
Post from Wali
On facebook - not sure if embed code will work so text posted below.
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FTorcheEtEpee%2Fposts%2F2741201649508179&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="553" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
''War in Ukraine...
I can now say it. We were in Erpin. We were in Bucha. We've heard a lot from these cities recently. The Russians have committed many crimes against humanity there. We had known that for weeks, because the civilians were telling us about it.
I will tell you two stories. One sad and the other happy. That pretty much sums up why I do what I do.
The crimes were not carried out on the front line. Like Nazis, the Russians were killing civilians behind the front. We could see the areas occupied by the Russians. They were ghost towns: dark, gloomy, where the only light comes from fires. The Russians, often drunk, fired into houses where they heard children crying. We have many testimonies to this effect. Curiously, the Russians killed many teachers, because teachers represent culture, history, knowledge. And to destroy a people, you have to kill its memory.
And now for the happy story, because this is how the release of Erpin and Bucha ended a week ago now...
We had just been reinforced by Ukrainian Army units. We were going back to rest. We were several soldiers in a car and we were moving through debris of all kinds, avoiding from time to time the electric wires lying in the middle of the street. My gun was sticking out the window like a gangster. I saw a lady of about 50 years old. She was in the middle of a parking lot, covered in tree branches, broken glass and other debris. We saw burnt out cars. The lady was in the middle of this sort of sample of the apocalypse. Our eyes met. I smiled at her tilting my head. She smiled back, grateful. A sad smile, but a smile, We had just liberated her city. We had just liberated her city.
Faith and Fight
W''
On facebook - not sure if embed code will work so text posted below.
<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FTorcheEtEpee%2Fposts%2F2741201649508179&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="553" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe>
''War in Ukraine...
I can now say it. We were in Erpin. We were in Bucha. We've heard a lot from these cities recently. The Russians have committed many crimes against humanity there. We had known that for weeks, because the civilians were telling us about it.
I will tell you two stories. One sad and the other happy. That pretty much sums up why I do what I do.
The crimes were not carried out on the front line. Like Nazis, the Russians were killing civilians behind the front. We could see the areas occupied by the Russians. They were ghost towns: dark, gloomy, where the only light comes from fires. The Russians, often drunk, fired into houses where they heard children crying. We have many testimonies to this effect. Curiously, the Russians killed many teachers, because teachers represent culture, history, knowledge. And to destroy a people, you have to kill its memory.
And now for the happy story, because this is how the release of Erpin and Bucha ended a week ago now...
We had just been reinforced by Ukrainian Army units. We were going back to rest. We were several soldiers in a car and we were moving through debris of all kinds, avoiding from time to time the electric wires lying in the middle of the street. My gun was sticking out the window like a gangster. I saw a lady of about 50 years old. She was in the middle of a parking lot, covered in tree branches, broken glass and other debris. We saw burnt out cars. The lady was in the middle of this sort of sample of the apocalypse. Our eyes met. I smiled at her tilting my head. She smiled back, grateful. A sad smile, but a smile, We had just liberated her city. We had just liberated her city.
Faith and Fight
W''
Good discussion from Hertling.
Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1511098954292903943.html
Thread:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1511098954292903943.html
The NSA said RU wants to refocus on Donbas...the east of UKR where there's been fighting since 2014.
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) April 4, 2022
That seems likely, but there's more to it. I don't expect a RU "frontal assault" into Donetsk & Lahansk, but rather an envelopment from N & S.
And...perhaps more. 2/
After viewing images of the murdered civilians my heart is saying yes to a hot war with Russia. My head is saying mayyybe. Can we do some 'kinetic' attacks in Ukraine and blame it on someone else?
.
You mean use our stealth airframes?3rd and 2 said:
After viewing images of the murdered civilians my heart is saying yes to a hot war with Russia. My head is saying mayyybe. Can we do some 'kinetic' attacks in Ukraine and blame it on someone else?
aggiehawg said:You mean use our stealth airframes?3rd and 2 said:
After viewing images of the murdered civilians my heart is saying yes to a hot war with Russia. My head is saying mayyybe. Can we do some 'kinetic' attacks in Ukraine and blame it on someone else?
We should be doing to Russia what Russia and China did to us in Vietnam and Korea. But our leaders have no clarity of vision and purpose. They're wholly reactionary and still trying to do as little as they feel they can get away with politically. This goes for both sides.
I've seen no principled stands on the matter coming from either party leadership in either the house or the senate. The Senate has the power to push firmer action but it's too politically convenient for either side simply not to.
If the Russian Navy is Blockading Ukrainian Ports and preventing Ukrainian and Foreign Merchant Ships from delivering shipments like Food, this could definitely anger some Countries in the International Community especially ones like Egypt that rely on Foreign Food Imports. https://t.co/1aXmbEmGDP
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 4, 2022
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 4, 2022
Bad move by Russia, IMO. That will draw more nations towards war.
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