MeatDr said:
Oryx will reach over 2000 verifiable equipment losses for Russia today. He has about 175 in his backlog yet to look at, plus what pops up new each day.
I have been tracking this for two weeks, even used wayback to grab data from start creating a spreadsheet of lost major equipment along with daily change. If anybody wants it PM me. I did not include air defense items/commo items but it would be interesting to look at for any trends. This list is not actual equipment lost per day but when it was verified so there is always a delay and assuming no repeats, it will always be UNDER reported. Assuming this team of reviewers isn't working 7 days a week at 100% there will also be some skewed daily numbers.
Overall Summary ThoughtsRussian Losses 1999 total of which destroyed 995 (49.7%) damaged 37 (1.8%) Captured 735 (36.7%).
These are shocking losses but at the same time doesn't mean UKR will be victorious and even if they prevail, their losses, which are mostly civilian are priceless. russia is a big bear that has shown over history their acceptance of heavy losses along with the sacrifices to rebuild so they can do it again a few years.
Current equipment losses, represent a 3.5:1 ratio of russian to Ukrainian losses. In earlier posts I have commented that if UKR can maintain 3:1 then were in a stalemate type of situation and anytime they can get to 4-5:1 then they will be able to recover some lost territory and this certainly has occurred several times in the last 10 days. The consequence of UKR success however, will result in further devastating attacks on civilians and infrastructure nation wide as we have seen in the last few days.
If damaged % is anywhere close to being correct, then the accuracy and lethality of the Ukrainian use of weapons has been outstanding, especially given the lack of air power. Given these ratios the old 1:3 KIA to WIA may not be true in this conflict and may be skewed in the other direction.
Captured 735 (36.7%) this is critical as well. Provides UKR with familiar replacement equipment & ammunition, valuable intelligence, but also requires them to deal with lots of POWs. Even if not 100% operational these pieces of equipment can be used to decoy, distract, delay russian movements.
Captured equipment is made up of 133 MBT, 88 AFV, 148 IFV/APC, 91 ID Fire Assetts . As much equipment that UKR has captured I am sure they regret not cross training more and are working feverishly to train up individuals in its use even if not completely competent. I have not seen reports but hopefully neighboring countries are providing training at a ramped up level. IE 3 crew members to run most of the heavy armor. This said specialization is for ants and the value in cross training and use of combined arms tactics cannot be understated.
Notablesrussians losing about 60 pieces of equipment per day. 10 MBTs per day.
I have not seen any evidence of UKR air force the last 3 weeks other than drone strikes and they have become very few. Only 1 listed as shot down on here but the russians have reported several and I believe them to be correct. I suspect given the CoD article they are staying in western part of the country only.
The loss of 17 Aircraft and 35 helos is a massive blow and in my observations has led to large reduction in air operations by the russians with the exception of long range or high altitude drops. They have supplanted this role by use of long range missiles and drones.
Heavy Indirect fire losses of Towed Artillery, Self-Propelled Artillery, and MRLS are now at a combined 136 pieces of which 44% have been destroyed and 66% captured/abandoned. This has also been huge factor in UKR military being able to maneuver and strike back, while bogging down russian advances wo fire support, in conjunction with supply chain issue mentioned numerous times. I also cannot imagine the increased amount of civilian loss of life had these 136 pieces remained in russian use. This is another area where the russians have had to rely more on long range munitions to make up.
I have observed little video on use of the NLAW, and even less of the Javelin compared to the STUGNA-P. This could be because they have not been deployed widespread yet and or both the US & Brits have instructed UKR to not post their usage.
Future In review of the losses on both sides and changes that have occurred. I think the most valuable item UKR needs to receive, is Air Defense capabilities (all types) and a bunch significantly to target drones. It appears that in most cases red long range precision guided weapons have been successful due to their reconnaissance and or Direct Attack Drones. Just talking about them should get hesitations in russian air use. Once the starstreaks hit the field rotary aircraft use by the reds should be severely reduced.
Switchblades. It is my prayer these are already hitting the field and heading to SE UKR to help alleviate Mariupol. Since they are cut off, that may be the only weapons system available there unless outside help is provided. Given the tenacity of the UKR forces left there, I don't think it would take a whole lot to give them a significant boost, but time is running out.
The ships launching cruise missiles also need to get turned into reefs preferably before they run out of stocks.
Of course they will need to backfill the weapons they have utilized and we see Zelensky swinging for the fence now on ATGMs.
Other FeedbackI would enjoy some O3+ feedback on this along with somebody whos expertise is any of the radars,comms, engineering losses/gains by both sides.
As for you tank and indirect fire guys can you give us some feedback on how much training it would take to get to a minimum level of operational competency on the armor and artillery items?