***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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In reply to AlaskanAg99 • 9:40p, 3/21/22
AlaskanAg99 said:
Keep pumping weapons into Ukraine to give them a fighting chance and continue to degrade Russias military. It sucks we cannot actively get involved and declare a no fly zone, but they're not a NATO member. War is brutal.


NATO membership doesn't preclude individual countries from undertaking unilateral action. It just means that once you're engaged you can't invoke Article 5. That's why you see some eastern flank countries considering it and US saying that if they do they're on their own but we'd defend their territory if Russia launched an attack directly on their soil.
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Player To Be Named Later
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 9:40p, 3/21/22
AG
Agthatbuilds said:
Don't blame them. Being a NATO member is proving to be not as big of a benefit as they probably thought it may be.
/End of Message
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 9:41p, 3/21/22
AG
EU membership is strangely missing.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 9:42p, 3/21/22
Agthatbuilds said:


He's been saying that but Russia still wants a neutral and demilitarized Ukraine (ie no alliances), and huge territorial concessions. So it's the same stalemate, essentially.
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ttu_85
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 9:44p, 3/21/22
Agthatbuilds said:
Didn't Russia and the Clinton Administration "guarantee Ukraine's security and sovereignty" in the late 1990's If Ukraine would to give its Soviet era nukes to Russia. See how well that worked out.

Russia has no intention of honoring its agreements.
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Rossticus
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In reply to ttu_85 • 9:48p, 3/21/22
I think he means alliances with other countries that would ensure the security of Ukraine. They're not trusting Russia now or ever.
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Rossticus
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9:51p, 3/21/22
This seems somewhat symbolic.

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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to TheCougarHunter • 9:53p, 3/21/22
AG
I don't think they're winning strategically. They're suffering unsustainable equipment and personnel losses. It's one thing to have ground, but it's another to do it continuously and hold it.

They've probably had about 10k KIA and another 30k wounded. In less than a month. They can't keep that up forever or even much longer. They're already at 20%-25% casualties from their initial force. If they keep up this pace, in 2-3 weeks they may be at only 50%-60% (or less) unit strength in more places than not. At that point the best option is to withdraw and regroup because the alternative is getting your as kicked even harder because you don't have an ability to cohesively fight back.
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deddog
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:07p, 3/21/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Yeah. Full versions from Russian MOD were posted below this one. This was just the first that popped up in my feed and I posted since I hadn't seen it here yet.
Hard to keep up
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deddog
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 10:11p, 3/21/22
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
I don't think they're winning strategically. They're suffering unsustainable equipment and personnel losses. It's one thing to have ground, but it's another to do it continuously and hold it.
I know it seems unlikely now, but the Russians may actually break the will of the Ukrainians.
There is only so much constant bombing and starvation that you can take. it doesn't help that Russia owns the skies - suree not up to Western standards, but they do. There is a reason Zelinsky keeps asking for a no-fly zone.
If (when?) the Russian level Kyiv, and Zelinsky is killed, and the Russians manage to cut off supplies, things may become very different.

The Russians suffered immensely in Chechnya, and yet turned things around. The Russians have a long, long history of taking brutal losses and then turning things around.
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ttu_85
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In reply to deddog • 10:19p, 3/21/22
deddog said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
I don't think they're winning strategically. They're suffering unsustainable equipment and personnel losses. It's one thing to have ground, but it's another to do it continuously and hold it.
I know it seems unlikely now, but the Russians may actually break the will of the Ukrainians.
There is only so much constant bombing and starvation that you can take. it doesn't help that Russia owns the skies - suree not up to Western standards, but they do. There is a reason Zelinsky keeps asking for a no-fly zone.
If (when?) the Russian level Kyiv, and Zelinsky is killed, and the Russians manage to cut off supplies, things may become very different.

The Russians suffered immensely in Chechnya, and yet turned things around. The Russians have a long, long history of taking brutal losses and then turning things around.
Yep but those days are over. Russia has only 145 million people and a huge landmass. Its pop is old and rapidly declining. They are the last country that should be throwing lives away. Putin is an idiot,
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Francis Macomber
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 10:22p, 3/21/22
AG
Player To Be Named Later said:
Agthatbuilds said:
Don't blame them. Being a NATO member is proving to be not as big of a benefit as they probably thought it may be.


Your comment makes no sense. What NATO country was under attack?

And Ukraine was never getting into NATO anyways, so this wouldn't be a big concession. That being said, it's been rumored for a couple of weeks now and I don't believe it is a real negotiating point as of now.
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TheCougarHunter
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In reply to ttu_85 • 11:02p, 3/21/22
AG
ttu_85 said:
deddog said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
I don't think they're winning strategically. They're suffering unsustainable equipment and personnel losses. It's one thing to have ground, but it's another to do it continuously and hold it.
I know it seems unlikely now, but the Russians may actually break the will of the Ukrainians.
There is only so much constant bombing and starvation that you can take. it doesn't help that Russia owns the skies - suree not up to Western standards, but they do. There is a reason Zelinsky keeps asking for a no-fly zone.
If (when?) the Russian level Kyiv, and Zelinsky is killed, and the Russians manage to cut off supplies, things may become very different.

The Russians suffered immensely in Chechnya, and yet turned things around. The Russians have a long, long history of taking brutal losses and then turning things around.
Yep but those days are over. Russia has only 145 million people and a huge landmass. Its pop is old and rapidly declining. They are the last country that should be throwing lives away. Putin is an idiot,


Would you argue the Ukrainians are winning? Since when does having most of your major cities encircled or besieged, your opponent having air and naval superiority and a massive manpower and equipment advantage constitute winning?

It's going to take more than ambushing a few convoys to win.

Oh yeah and Russia always gets their ass kicked at the beginning of every war and they get their act together. See Great Northern War, Napoleonic wars, Winter War, Barbarossa etc
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Rossticus
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11:09p, 3/21/22
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Rossticus
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11:14p, 3/21/22
More goodies incoming

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Stat Monitor Repairman
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 11:35p, 3/21/22
Agthatbuilds said:
This is best case scenario and the best time to settle this thing is right now.

West gotta participate in agreeing to lift the sanctions as progress points are met.

How to deal with the destroyed infrastructure and humanitarian crisis is the real question.

How to deal with 20m refugees dispersed throughout the EU?

Somebody got to pay for all that.
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Rossticus
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 11:40p, 3/21/22
Are you willing to become a primary Ukrainian ally along with the eastern flank and be willing to go to war if Russia tries to invade again once they've reloaded?

Because a military alliance is the only security guarantee for them. Russia's past "security guarantees" to Ukraine have resulted in three land grab invasions so a Russian paper promise ain't getting that deal done.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to deddog • 11:46p, 3/21/22
AG
deddog said:
ABATTBQ11 said:
I don't think they're winning strategically. They're suffering unsustainable equipment and personnel losses. It's one thing to have ground, but it's another to do it continuously and hold it.
I know it seems unlikely now, but the Russians may actually break the will of the Ukrainians.
There is only so much constant bombing and starvation that you can take. it doesn't help that Russia owns the skies - suree not up to Western standards, but they do. There is a reason Zelinsky keeps asking for a no-fly zone.
If (when?) the Russian level Kyiv, and Zelinsky is killed, and the Russians manage to cut off supplies, things may become very different.

The Russians suffered immensely in Chechnya, and yet turned things around. The Russians have a long, long history of taking brutal losses and then turning things around.


And strategically that is catching up. As someone else mentioned. Their population is aging and they have a death rate almost twice their birth rate. The thing about taking brutal losses and throwing men and materials at something until you overwhelm it is that eventually you run out.

This is their Afghanistan 2.0. In a month and a half they'll have lost as many if not more soldiers in Ukraine than they did over 10 years in Afghanistan, all of the Chechen war, and more than we did in Iraq and Afghanistan in 20 years. Drag it on another month and the Russians won't be able to hide the losses from the public. They'll be staring at 20k KIA and probably another 40k-50k wounded. 2 months and they could be north of 100k casualties. Even if the finally move into and start taking cities, they'll deal with an insurgency.

On top of that, the longer they drag on, the more economic damage will be done, which is something they did not face during the Chechen war. They literally got away with murder there, but the sanctions will likely stay until they leave Ukraine. They can lose men and materials in Ukraine, but if they're facing 20-30% unemployment on top of huge military losses, they're going to have a lot of domestic problems to deal with and no one to do it with. Even if they eventually win the battles in the ground, they'll be bled dry economically and the inevitable insurgency will keep them there until they lose the war.
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Rossticus
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 11:50p, 3/21/22
Problem is, can you keep Ukrainian casualties sufficiently low proportional to Russian losses that they can sustain the grind for that long and outlast them?
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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12:11a, 3/22/22
If Zelenskyy actually made that offer and its not fake news, that's a reasonable off ramp. But with the rhetoric coming from Putin I don't see how he backs down at this point, really. He'll keep fighting on principle he doesn't lose face. Where have we seen this before?
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 12:24a, 3/22/22
AG
Stat Monitor Repairman said:
If Zelenskyy actually made that offer and its not fake news, that's a reasonable off ramp. But with the rhetoric coming from Putin I don't see how he backs down at this point, really. He'll keep fighting on principle he doesn't loose face. Where have we seen this before?
Based on Russia's demands and Ukraine's denials of those demands, it is not a "reasonable offramp" for Russia. They want expansion and conquest to prove true.

In my opinion, Putin needs to be blasted in the face so much he's unrecognizable, and then the successor decides to pull the troops back. If the West had real leadership, that would probably happen. We don't, though, so our idiot strategy remains.
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OKC~Ag
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1:33a, 3/22/22
Excellent article referenced few pages back from this thread written by Eliot A Cohen who is a contributing writer at The Atlantic, a professor at The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies

I thought very important thinking that has not been publicly disccused here or in government sector but should be to speed the end of war...set up War crime tribunal /advertise it's exsitence and start naming them...and announce Marshal plan for Ukarine...Encourage Ukraine and deflate russians.

snipet from the article.

"The Ukrainians are doing their part. Now is the time to arm them on the scale and with the urgency needed, as in some cases we are already doing. We must throttle the Russian economy, increasing pressure on a Russian elite that does not, by and large, buy into Vladimir Putin's bizarre ideology of "passionarity" and paranoid Great Russian nationalism. We must mobilize official and unofficial agencies to penetrate the information cocoon in which Putin's government is attempting to insulate the Russian people from the news that thousands of their young men will come home maimed, or in coffins, or not at all from a stupid and badly fought war of aggression against a nation that will now hate them forever. We should begin making arrangements for war-crimes trials, and begin naming defendants, as we should have done during World War II. Above all, we must announce that there will be a Marshall Plan to rebuild the Ukrainian economy, for nothing will boost their confidence like the knowledge that we believe in their victory and intend to help create a future worth having for a people willing to fight so resolutely for its freedom."

As for the endgame, it should be driven by an understanding that Putin is a very bad man indeed, but not a shy one. When he wants an off-ramp, he will let us know. Until then, the way to end the war with the minimum of human suffering is to pile on."


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

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Rossticus
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4:18a, 3/22/22
*** We warned you not to post Twitter shots that bypass obscenity filters. Take a few days to absorb the lesson. Continue and earn a much longer timeout -- Staff ***
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In reply to Rossticus • 4:38a, 3/22/22
AG
Rossticus said:
Problem is, can you keep Ukrainian casualties sufficiently low proportional to Russian losses that they can sustain the grind for that long and outlast them?
On the other side of that equation, how long can Putin sustain both high casualties and unprecedented sanctions?

Zelenskyy has to hold his nerve and let the grind work for him.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Stat Monitor Repairman • 4:53a, 3/22/22
Stat Monitor Repairman said:
If Zelenskyy actually made that offer and its not fake news, that's a reasonable off ramp. But with the rhetoric coming from Putin I don't see how he backs down at this point, really. He'll keep fighting on principle he doesn't lose face. Where have we seen this before?


The report doesn't say what Russia gets or is asking for. That's a pretty big question mark
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LostInLA07
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 6:24a, 3/22/22
AG
Last report I read was Z wants a complete Russian withdrawal…which includes the occupied territories (Crimea and the two separatist regions). Putin isn't going to do that.

At this point I think Russia still wants and thinks they can get the eastern part of Ukraine, including all of the Black Sea ports and Kyiv. They'd probably give Ukraine the western landlocked portion of the country with Lviv as the new capital. Putin seems ok with losing a few thousand troops per month and shelling Ukrainian cities for as long as it takes or until he runs out of ammo.
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Red Pear Realty
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6:51a, 3/22/22
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Red Pear Realty
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6:52a, 3/22/22
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WhAt a time to be alive. Psyop text messages.

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MeatDr
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 6:58a, 3/22/22
AG
Red Pear Realty said:
WhAt a time to be alive. Psyop text messages.



Potentially (likely?) all propaganda, but potentially here is more backstory.

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Red Pear Realty
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7:02a, 3/22/22
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Red Pear Realty
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7:06a, 3/22/22
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Spinnaker96
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In reply to Rossticus • 8:02a, 3/22/22
AG
Interesting to me as it appears that the C5 went out of its way to not overfly any country except Denmark.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 8:24a, 3/22/22
AG
Red Pear Realty said:


This is why Russia has not attempted to land around Odessa and appears to have deployed their naval infantry on land as conventional reinforcements elsewhere: the landing craft would get massacred by prepared defenses with guided munitions and ranged artillery.
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Waffledynamics
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8:51a, 3/22/22
AG
Is it just me, or are we seeing less Ukrainian destruction of Russian artillery? Destroying those would be key to stopping Russia's cowardly strategy of shelling cities.
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Nagler
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:52a, 3/22/22
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Is it just me, or are we seeing less Ukrainian destruction of Russian artillery? Destroying those would be key to stopping Russia's cowardly strategy of shelling cities.

Militarily I'm not sure they're as concerned with them shelling cities. It sucks but if they're spending ordinance on cities they're not spending it on fighting men and equipment.
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