***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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9:35a, 10/30/26
Seems to be some reporting disconnect as to what is happening and who is going where.



"Russian forces have begun taking civilians from occupied Oleshky to Russia, apparently disregarding previously announced agreements governing the operation.

The operations are being conducted by the Russian military, without American representatives or teams from either side's ombudsman office present. Russia's state news agency TASS is openly filming the operation.

There is no indication that civilians are being given a choice of where they wish to go. No buses or other vehicles designated to transport evacuees to Ukrainian-controlled territory are visible.

The operation raises serious concerns that Russia is once again exploiting a humanitarian evacuation to forcibly transfer Ukrainian civilians.

The parallels with the evacuation of Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant are disturbing. Once again, Moscow appears to be disregarding agreed procedures while controlling the fate of Ukrainian civilians."






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Rossticus
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9:41a, 10/30/26


" Ukrainian military personnel said they had detected movements of Russian troops and equipment during a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky. They believe Russia may use the truce to prepare an offensive that could begin after November 1.

According to the Ukrainian military, Russian trucks are transporting combat units, while anti-drone nets are being installed in the industrial zone of Kakhovka.

A large number of Grad multiple-launch rocket systems have reportedly been deployed in a forest near Radensk, where shelters are also being reinforced. Residents of Hola Prystan have also reported movements of Russian military trucks.

One source quoted by Bild said Russian drone units were approaching the Dnipro River and did not rule out an attempt to cross it after the ceasefire ends."
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aezmvp
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9:50a, 10/30/26
Well they aren't crossing into the marshes south of Kherson. That'd be a drone operator's dream. So that leaves the 25 miles or so of river north of the city before the Dneiper widens out. Man I think that'd be a tall order to get across the river.
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Rossticus
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9:51a, 10/30/26
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Rossticus
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In reply to aezmvp • 9:52a, 10/30/26
aezmvp said:
Well they aren't crossing into the marshes south of Kherson. That'd be a drone operator's dream. So that leaves the 25 miles or so of river north of the city before the Dneiper widens out. Man I think that'd be a tall order to get across the river.


Could get ugly for them. Recent history indicates it will.
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JFABNRGR
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1:34p, 10/30/26
AG
Young & pretty but I guess not Trumps kind.

Despicable.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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aezmvp
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:47p, 10/30/26
Rossticus said:
aezmvp said:
Well they aren't crossing into the marshes south of Kherson. That'd be a drone operator's dream. So that leaves the 25 miles or so of river north of the city before the Dneiper widens out. Man I think that'd be a tall order to get across the river.


Could get ugly for them. Recent history indicates it will.

Yeah I have no faith that the Russians would be able to put together enough assets to actually get across a river that size with men and equipment. That kind of buildup would be seen weeks in advance and hit mercilessly. Yeah you can sneak in a bunch of rubber boats and motors to get guys across, but you're not getting trucks or enough food, ammo and water, not to mention everything else, on RIBs. Not to mention those will make nice big infrared sigs against the water in autumn/winter.

What's the line for Inglorious? It'd be a gd snipers delight.
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sclaff
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2:47p, 10/30/26
AG
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Waffledynamics
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4:24p, 10/30/26
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 6:15p, 10/30/26
AG
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fullback44
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In reply to JFABNRGR • 6:20p, 10/30/26
AG
JFABNRGR said:
Young & pretty but I guess not Trumps kind.

Despicable.


Horrible… what is wrong with the Russians. These girls had their entire life ahead of them,
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Eliminatus
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:04p, 10/30/26
AG
Waffledynamics said:


Wonder if they will get priority choice for upcoming shipments. The backlog on these things is insane.

Then they have to pass the desk of Hegseth too who coordinates it all. Who we all remember has unilaterally in the past abused his powers to freeze aid on his own before getting his peepee smacked for it. He has already been sitting on sales from PERL shipments as is. He is the quite the wrench in the system as of now.

As to the acts of war discussion, just a reminder to everyone. Acts of war are only such, when it is politically convenient for them to be so. It has always been this way.
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74OA
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In reply to Eliminatus • 7:06p, 10/30/26
AG
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EastSideAg2002
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7:30p, 10/30/26
Pretty disingenuous announcement.

I am curious how much of the lack of delivery is due to keeping all available stock in play for Iran. Does the US have the option to buyback all available Patriots anywhere?
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74OA
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10:49a, 10/31/26
AG
Looks like Poland and Ukraine have moved past their recent spat.

"In a key indication of improving ties between Poland and Ukraine, Warsaw has reportedly agreed to provide two additional MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters, badly needed 20x102mm rounds for Ukrainian Air Force F-16s and artillery shells."

FIGHTERS
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74OA
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In reply to Eliminatus • 11:00a, 10/31/26
AG
Eliminatus said:
Waffledynamics said:


Wonder if they will get priority choice for upcoming shipments. The backlog on these things is insane.

Then they have to pass the desk of Hegseth too who coordinates it all. Who we all remember has unilaterally in the past abused his powers to freeze aid on his own before getting his peepee smacked for it. He has already been sitting on sales from PERL shipments as is. He is the quite the wrench in the system as of now.

As to the acts of war discussion, just a reminder to everyone. Acts of war are only such, when it is politically convenient for them to be so. It has always been this way.

If an actual contract is formalized, hopefully it will give Europeans the confidence to donate more of their own Patriot missiles to Ukraine now and keep some of the new missiles for themselves as eventual backfill.

SALE
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74OA
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3:54a, 11/1/26
AG
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Waffledynamics
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11:46a, 11/2/26
AG


Must be accounted for with rear strikes?
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74OA
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:01p, 11/2/26
AG
That perhaps, but also proportionally more attacks involving dismounted infantry who are extremely vulnerable to drones, artillery and direct fire when approaching Ukraine's extensively fortified front lines.
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txags92
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In reply to 74OA • 2:31p, 11/2/26
AG
74OA said:
That perhaps, but also proportionally more attacks involving dismounted infantry who are extremely vulnerable to drones, artillery and direct fire when approaching Ukraine's extensively fortified front lines.

I was about to post this. The orc tactics have reported shifted heavily to infiltration of small #s of troops into an area to occupy it instead of mass movements. Many of these are being taken out with drones before they can ever make contact with Uke troops.
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TRM
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7:21p, 11/2/26
AG
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Waffledynamics
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9:00p, 11/2/26
AG
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74OA
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9:41a, 11/3/26
AG
Good news of a sort, but thousands of Russian glide bombs are still pounding Ukrainian positions every month.

"Russian forces used 8,016 guided aerial bombs in October, 11% fewer than September's record, according to Oko Gora data. The decline followed Ukrainian Neptune missile strikes on Su-34 bombers at Borisoglebsk and Marinovka air bases."

BOMBS
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Rossticus
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5:08p, 11/3/26
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Rossticus
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5:10p, 11/3/26
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Rossticus
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5:11p, 11/3/26
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Rossticus
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5:12p, 11/3/26
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TRM
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:28p, 11/3/26
AG
And Trump wants to help Russia refill their coffers.
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Rossticus
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12:03p, 11/4/26
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Rossticus
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12:14p, 11/4/26
*Adding this as it applies STRICTLY and NARROWLY to the implications for Ukraine's strategic position moving forward. This is NOT an attempt to discuss the politics surrounding the midterms on this thread. This is not political commentary and I don't want to begin a political discussion*



What's next for Ukraine after the US elections?

1. The lame-duck Congress matters. Trump and Republicans retain control until January 3. The December 11 funding deadline creates an opportunity to shape FY2027 spending, and a major new Ukraine appropriation remains unlikely.

2. Peace negotiations are entering a critical period. President Zelenskyy may feel emboldened by the Democratic sweep, but Trump still controls US diplomacy and key weapons deliveries. Trump can be constrained on sanctions and returning blocked assets; he cannot be forced to offer security guarantees or military assistance, except by horse trading. Democratic leaders will have more ability to horse trade in appropriations etc if Ukraine has friendly relations with the White House. Congress can weigh in on security guarantees and a treaty would be approved by the senate.

3. Divided government changes the equation, but not necessarily in Ukraine's favor. Democrats can increase oversight and pressure, but they cannot simply force Trump to provide additional military assistance or deliver weapons.

4. The political clock is ticking. By late 2027, Washington will be consumed by the 2028 presidential campaign. Ukraine cannot assume American attention will increase.

My recommendations for Ukraine:

1. First, don't spike the football. This election was not about Ukraine; they shouldn't pretend it was. Trump has two months with a Republican Congress. Lame-duck presidents can wield considerable influence, particularly when outgoing legislators are seeking appointments, jobs, or final legislative victories. Personal grievances and political favors can matter enormously during this period.

2. Second, stay out of American partisan politics. Ukraine needs a bipartisan coalition in Congress, united around a concrete agenda for military assistance, reconstruction, sanctions, and peace. Democratic support alone is not enough. Do not send out the Vindman type surrogates who will be tempted to make it look like Ukraine is celebrating the election or calling for investigations, etc.

3. Build bipartisan support for security guarantees now. Security Guarantees and rebuilding are an opportunity for consensus. A formal US security treaty would require the consent of two-thirds of the Senate. Washington loves rebuilding and they love to project power and the shining city on the hill. Building consensus here for maximum support should be low hanging fruit.

4. Ukraine may do well to look outside politics for an accomplished founder or CEO with gravitas, strong ties to Ukraine's business community, and a deep understanding of the country's reconstruction needs. Someone who can speak credibly for Ukrainian businesses, attract American investment, and make deals in Washington.

The bottom line: Trump's electoral defeat doesn't mean Ukraine's strategic position has improved. The next eight weeks may shape Ukraine's prospects for the next two years. Kyiv needs to navigate them carefully.
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Rossticus
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12:19p, 11/4/26
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Eliminatus
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:00p, 11/4/26
AG
And people still believe Russia is fighting to protect its borders. Damned roving bands of NATO death squads or whatever.

So obliterating Kyiv has a new strategic name to it now. That's neat.
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74OA
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In reply to Rossticus • 1:24p, 11/4/26
AG
Rossticus said:

It's straightforward deliberate mass murder.

"The death toll reached 31 as they removed bodies throughout the day and looked for dozens of people still missing. Monday's attacks on a shelter and former school with bunker-busting bombs came as people were lined up for aid in Komyshuvakha, a village in the Zaporizhzhia region. Teams of emergency workers and volunteers picked through debris at the cratered blast sites, as bodies were pulled from the rubble and carried away in white plastic sheeting. More than 45 residents remained missing."

ATTACK
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Rossticus
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7:43p, 11/4/26
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