***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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74OA
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11:07a, 5/14/26
AG
More and more it appears Putin's actions are focused on regime survival, rather than on conquering Ukraine.

He may be "a leader with clear visibility who simply has no viable exit, for whom the war's continuation is not a strategy but a default, the least bad option in a situation where stopping creates problems he doesn't know how to solve."

"If Russia is no longer fighting to win, the war's end, whether through military exhaustion or a negotiated settlement, won't reveal an adversary returning to normalcy. It will reveal a system that used the war to complete a (domestic security) transformation it couldn't have accomplished in peacetime and is now prepared, in ways it wasn't in 2022, to survive what that transformation produces.

Whether that outcome was designed or defaulted into, the structural result is the same."
SURVIVAL
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docb
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In reply to 74OA • 11:27a, 5/14/26
AG
74OA said:
More and more it appears Putin's actions are focused on regime survival, rather than on conquering Ukraine.

He may be "a leader with clear visibility who simply has no viable exit, for whom the war's continuation is not a strategy but a default, the least bad option in a situation where stopping creates problems he doesn't know how to solve."

"If Russia is no longer fighting to win, the war's end, whether through military exhaustion or a negotiated settlement, won't reveal an adversary returning to normalcy. It will reveal a system that used the war to complete a (domestic security) transformation it couldn't have accomplished in peacetime and is now prepared, in ways it wasn't in 2022, to survive what that transformation produces.

Whether that outcome was designed or defaulted into, the structural result is the same."

SURVIVAL

It would give me great satisfaction to hear of Putin accidently falling out of a tall window. And we might actually see it happen.
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Waffledynamics
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12:15p, 5/14/26
AG
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74OA
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In reply to docb • 12:26p, 5/14/26
AG
docb said:
74OA said:
lMore and more it appears Putin's actions are focused on regime survival, rather than on conquering Ukraine.

He may be "a leader with clear visibility who simply has no viable exit, for whom the war's continuation is not a strategy but a default, the least bad option in a situation where stopping creates problems he doesn't know how to solve."

"If Russia is no longer fighting to win, the war's end, whether through military exhaustion or a negotiated settlement, won't reveal an adversary returning to normalcy. It will reveal a system that used the war to complete a (domestic security) transformation it couldn't have accomplished in peacetime and is now prepared, in ways it wasn't in 2022, to survive what that transformation produces.

Whether that outcome was designed or defaulted into, the structural result is the same."

SURVIVAL

It would give me great satisfaction to hear of Putin accidently falling out of a tall window. And we might actually see it happen.

Yep, but it's unlikely as Russians are congenital serfs at heart. And, as the article points out, the primary purpose behind Putin's steady conversion of Russa back into a ruthless police state is to ensure people are kept on a tight leash.
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In reply to 74OA • 1:02p, 5/14/26
AG
Quote:
"If Russia is no longer fighting to win, the war's end, whether through military exhaustion or a negotiated settlement, won't reveal an adversary returning to normalcy......."

It's like watching a war movie remake of "The Sixth Sense." Russia is dead ... they just don't know it yet. This war officially culminated in Q1 2026.
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lb3
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In reply to benchmark • 1:32p, 5/14/26
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I feel like if Ukraine wants to continue the war for 2-3 more years, Crimea will be within reach.
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Rossticus
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1:40p, 5/14/26
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Rossticus
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1:42p, 5/14/26
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Rossticus
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1:44p, 5/14/26
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Rossticus
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1:46p, 5/14/26
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Rossticus
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1:47p, 5/14/26
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Rossticus
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1:49p, 5/14/26

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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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1:52p, 5/14/26
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Rossticus
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1:53p, 5/14/26
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Logos Stick
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2:18p, 5/14/26

I don't follow this war or this thread, but I've come to the point where I hope they wipe out most of Russia's military and kill off Putin!
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Rossticus
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7:34p, 5/14/26
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7:35p, 5/14/26
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B-1 83
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In reply to Rossticus • 7:36p, 5/14/26
AG
Rossticus said:

Damn….necessity is truly the mother of invention.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
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Waffledynamics
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7:48p, 5/14/26
AG



Quote:
Behind the Oskil River, the Ukrainian army is still holding out in three pockets: Kupiansk, Borova, and Lyman.

The Russian army has intensified its infiltrations in Lyman and Kupiansk in recent weeks, using the cover of trees.

In four years, the Oskil front (named after the river crossed in October 2022) has barely moved.

Russian forces have mainly succeeded in advancing in three directions: toward Senkove, cutting the front in two; then toward Lyman, cutting it in three; and finally toward Dvorichna.

Near Lyman, russian forces are launching important infiltrations, using the tree cover in the region.

They are mainly pushing south and north of the city, some soldiers even crossed the Siverski Donets river. The main objective is to cut the city from the rear.

Ukrainian forces continue to have very good defenses and strongholds north and east of the city. Their supply roads are currently secured but the situation could soon worsen.

The big push south of the city is the same happening in Sloviansk, as I explained yesterday.

In Borova, the situation is under control of the ukrainian soldiers. They continue to keep two supply roads, one heading to Borova the second one heading to Oskil (the village).

Here however, there are some risks since the crossing are very large and in the open.

Russian infiltrations have not been very numerous in this direction, ukrainian still controls the high ground which helps dominate the regional battelfield.

This big buffer zone is very useful to fortifiy Izium, a strategic city located further west.

The last city is Kupiansk. After last year's attempts to capture the city with infiltration from the north, Russia switched to seize the territory east of it.

They recently advanced and are now launching an important number of infiltrations into the city's eastern outskirts.

Ukrainian logistic situation in the western part of the city is rather good, there is still however a small pocket of resistance in the center of the city.

The situation in the eastern part of the city is much more difficult, with russian attempts to gain ground there.

One last point is necessary for the russian border. Offensive actions in Dvorichna and on the border have mostly stopped, but important fighting are ongoing near Vovchansk.

Here, the russians are trying to consolidate their control over the city and push south.

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Waffledynamics
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8:12p, 5/14/26
AG


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Rossticus
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10:47a, 5/15/26



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Rossticus
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1:04p, 5/15/26
That looks fun…


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JFABNRGR
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1:54p, 5/15/26
AG
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
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74OA
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3:54p, 5/15/26
AG
Ukraine is cashing in on its drone expertise. US military is very interested, for example.

"Inside Ukraine's interceptor drone Innovations swatting down thousands of Russian Shaheds. Brave1 CEO Andrii Hrytseniuk gives us exclusive insights into Ukraine's ability to counter Russia's one-way attack drone armada on the cheap."

INNOVATION
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Rossticus
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In reply to 74OA • 6:38p, 5/15/26
On top of that, a few of our Middle Eastern "allies" told us to suck it when we "prohibited" them from entering into defense agreements with Ukraine. And they've been satisfied with their decision, leading other countries to pursue them as well. They're securing quite a bit of backing and assistance as a result of their innovation.
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Rossticus
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6:53p, 5/15/26
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Rossticus
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8:04p, 5/15/26
More big stuff catching fire in Russia

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Waffledynamics
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9:06p, 5/15/26
AG
Missed this from yesterday.

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Rossticus
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9:33p, 5/15/26
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9:40p, 5/15/26
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74OA
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10:55a
AG
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