The missile has the range. It is just a question of guidance and targeting at that range. Its terminal phase will not be very maneuverable at that distance but it does have a relatively big warhead. If they have found z way to improve its targeting at long range with technology updates, even these ancient missiles can be effective against a target like a strategic bomber that may not maneuver much in flight.

If it was again a fragmentation warhead type of weapon then the damage might have ultimately led to the loss of control/crash.

They might have for instance lost pneumatics etc. and that led to the spin/crash. It looked like it wasn't traveling real fast when it was videoed spinning, imho, likely after some of the crew escaped. I don't really think it's likely to have been a simple mechanical failure.

Hydraulics rather than pneumatics, but it wouldn't surprise me if the flat spin would be a result of ejecting. Total assumption on my part, but I'd imagine that if you were going to eject you'd want to do it at as low a speed as feasible because of the force that the airstream would have on a person.

Given the fire I'd imagine that FOD from a fragmentation warhead took out one or both engines, along with flight control surface and hydraulic systems damage. Plane is no longer controllable so it's time for the pilots to bail out.

The Fife said:

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Hydraulics rather than pneumatics, but it wouldn't surprise me if the flat spin would be a result of ejecting. Total assumption on my part, but I'd imagine that if you were going to eject you'd want to do it at as low a speed as feasible because of the force that the airstream would have on a person.

Given the fire I'd imagine that FOD from a fragmentation warhead took out one or both engines, along with flight control surface and hydraulic systems damage. Plane is no longer controllable so it's time for the pilots to bail out.

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Ah. Forgot about the whole getting hit but trying to milk it back to base and not quite making it. Was not entirely sober last night. What you say makes a lot of sense. Especially with that flat spin.

Good on the Ukes. The -22 and -95 pilots have probably been feeling more or less always safe in the air.

"Our military aid to Ukraine is also revitalizing our defense industrial base, creating hot production lines for the weapons we need to deter potential adversaries and creating manufacturing jobs in the United States. That's because 90 percent of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has thus far approved is not going to Ukraine but is being spent in the United States, according to an analysis by Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies."

WHERE IT'S SPENT

More details on the Russian strategic bomber Ukraine just shot down.

BACKFIRE

The Netherlands will provide over €200 million of additional military support to Ukraine for air defence and artillery ammunition.

I announced this today at a meeting between @NATO defence ministers, @ZelenskyyUa and @jensstoltenberg.

We have no time to lose.#StandWithUkraine

— Kajsa Ollongren (@DefensieMin) April 19, 2024

Russian commander of the 59th Guards Signal Brigade, Colonel Pavel Kropotov, killed on the April 13, 2024 as a result of a Storm Shadow/SCALP missile strike on the headquarters in Luhansk.https://t.co/6tH8EaKUFi https://t.co/DCFAYMN1tm pic.twitter.com/29kkgOafmO

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 19, 2024

Quick footnote on Russell Bentley, the Texan (in name only) who garnered quite a bit of attention for fighting with Russia and generating propaganda for them.

He had disappeared recently and rumors came out of his death. His unit confirmed it today. Went to their telegram and translated it myself. Now, the manner of his death has the rumor mill spinning about how, but one thing I have not seen yet is anyone disputing who did it. Even Russians are saying he was killed by Russians.

So I guess we can put a pin in this little side story of the greater conflict.

Gordo14 said:

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316-94 to bring the foreign aid bill to a vote tomorrow. Goes to show just how out of touch this forum is. 6 months too late, but at least we're moving.

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The whole forum has one opinion on this? Hardly. We've been arguing about it daily for months.

Ukraine and Iran understandably dominate the discussions at the ongoing G7 conference.

UPDATES

The handwringing about using frozen Russian state funds to compensate Ukraine is mystifying as there seems to be a solid legal foundation to do so.

"Governments would have plenty of legal justification for moving ahead. On Nov. 14, 2022, the United Nations formally recognized that Russia must "bear the legal consequences of all of its internationally wrongful acts, including making reparation for the injury, including any damage, caused by such acts." The United Nations called for creation of an institution, now, to implement this compensation. In the last such case, after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, using the same emergency powers that President Biden has invoked in this crisis, an October 1992 executive order "directed and compelled" every bank holding Iraqi state funds to transfer them in compliance with a U.N. resolution that called for compensation of the victims of that aggression. More than $50 billion of Iraqi state funds from around the world were eventually paid out to injured countries, widening the supportive coalition. None of this required court action or the aggressor's permission."

JUST DO IT

Pushback on these raids is interesting, in addition to the energy infrastructure/need to import more power.

In this edition: Russia’s large-scale attacks against Ukraine’s energy system have stoked fears of renewed country-wide blackouts; Business leaders have once again called on Zelensky to address the perennial problem of raids by law enforcement; and more. https://t.co/X2vUwp9im6

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) April 19, 2024

Russian strikes take out key assets;

Dnipro IAP has been the home of a forward detachment of MiG-29s from the 114th BrTA since spring 2014, almost continuously. After the full-scale invasion, measures were taken to better protect the MiGs stationed there, and they have been fairly effective until recently https://t.co/GUiQrELO2p

— Alex (@magictouch190) April 19, 2024

is it a good strategy for Zelensky to be publicly and angrily yelling at the West to either supply him or Ukraine will lose the war?

I would imagine that Putin knows what is happening anyway- but it certainly seems that having soundbites that every Russian will see where Zelensky is discussing defeat is not the best look.

Those civilian planes were apparently parts hulks that have been sitting there for years. There were a couple of mig 29 air frames moved there more recently but supposedly they were also just stored for use as parts also. So a parts cache was destroyed.

More detail on the extensive damage done to a Russian airbase in Crimea.

STRIKES

Interesting thread;

This would be the 2nd reported downing of a Tu-22M by an S-200. The earlier Tu-22M being in December 2023.

It looks like these Tu-22M are still using Soviet era EW suites which were not geared against the S-200 C-Band, 100 KW, 5N62 Square Pair FMCW tracker/illuminator.
2/… pic.twitter.com/w7l4kpbLZf

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) April 19, 2024

I've read some recurring assertions the Russians have decreased the range of many of their missiles to provide for enlarged warhead sizes (trading fuel for warhead basically). If they do have to move to launching from further out, that could reverse, imho.

Again it does look like the Tu-22 was struck by one of these older AD systems. This is pretty believable to me as well because it appears the Russians are basically flying very similar 'launch' patterns almost every day with these aircraft.

GUR sources also said the Russian A-50 in February was brought down by S-200.https://t.co/tYvYAZidOE https://t.co/sk9cK4GrU4 pic.twitter.com/a9mxB7sLnY

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 19, 2024

Some updates and refurbed T-80's;



A lengthy update.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-drones-attack-oil-1892468
Ukraine with a pretty good sized drone attack last night. Looks to be a fairly good sized fire at Lukoil facility. I'd hate to be buying gasoline in Russia these days.

74OA said:

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The House passed the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act with a vote of 311-112.

BIPARTISAN

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Great news.

Why did it take so long?

PJYoung said:

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74OA said:

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The House passed the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act with a vote of 311-112.

BIPARTISAN

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Great news.

Why did it take so long?

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Ask Mike. He could have scheduled a vote months ago with the same outcome from Dems and moderate Republicans working together. I wonder if he finally got the green light from Trump during his recent pilgrimage to Mar-a-largo? Or perhaps the Dems offered to vote against any motion to vacate until after the election? Or....

Last week @SpeakerJohnson met with the Odesa pastor that lost both his wife and daughter in a Russian missile strike 2 months ago.

Combined with several US Christian groups pressuring him to help Ukraine's Evangelicals, Baptists and Catholics as theyre being murdered and… pic.twitter.com/aAENkmotg5

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) April 20, 2024

Sounds like he found his conscience.

PJYoung said:

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Sounds like he found his conscience.

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I think that is rather naive.

Repelling Russian attack on the Novomykhailivka front. Video by the Shadow air reconnaissance unit. https://t.co/LUTJDTWDMe pic.twitter.com/fHqsbENk9P

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 20, 2024

Unfortunately, the town is mostly overrun at this point.

PJYoung said:

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Sounds like he found his conscience.

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Or they finally worked out all the commissions.

Either way I hope a good bit of stuff is getting worked up on C17s as we type.

Not really.

Build It said:

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Not really.

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Yes really. Russia could do **** when Ukraine didn't have aid. They haven't done much of anything since April of 2022.

They are done and this war is now frozen on current lines.

Teslag said:

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Build It said:

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Not really.

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Yes really. Russia could do **** when Ukraine didn't have aid. They haven't done much of anything since April of 2022.

They are done and this war is now frozen on current lines.

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The Russians have gained ground in that time. That's really a fact and not debatable. Maybe your argument is they will stop gaining ground? It's possible, but certainly not guaranteed with our aid package.

docb said:

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https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-russia-drones-attack-oil-1892468
Ukraine with a pretty good sized drone attack last night. Looks to be a fairly good sized fire at Lukoil facility. I'd hate to be buying gasoline in Russia these days.

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Gas prices steady there.

Build It said:

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Teslag said:

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Build It said:

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Not really.

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Yes really. Russia could do **** when Ukraine didn't have aid. They haven't done much of anything since April of 2022.

They are done and this war is now frozen on current lines.

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The Russians have gained ground in that time. That's really a fact and not debatable. Maybe your argument is they will stop gaining ground? It's possible, but certainly not guaranteed with our aid package.

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That is incorrect.

Since April of 2022 they have lost more than they gained. After April of 2022 they lost 60% of that they gained from February of 2022 to the end of April 2022.

We are not talking huge gains but to say they've achieved none is just wrong. Since the pullback after the failure to take Kyiv and the initial pullback they have made gains. Just recently taking Avdiivka and Marinka in eastern Donetsk Oblast.

Yes, most people get your point and in addition recognize Ukraine's inability to take back territory that Russia has made a point in defending.

The orc situation on the frontlines pic.twitter.com/ZxBBPIS01o

— OSINTNic (@OSINTNic) April 21, 2024

War is hell.

Build It said:

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We are not talking huge gains but to say they've achieved none is just wrong. Since the pullback after the failure to take Kyiv and the initial pullback they have made gains. Just recently taking Avdiivka and Marinka in eastern Donetsk Oblast.

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I said they achieved no gains since April of 2022 which is accurate.