***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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LMCane
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In reply to 74OA • 3:44a, 6/8/23
74OA said:
Despite Kiev remaining tight-lipped, apparently Washington believes the counteroffensive has begun:

"Administration officials "were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front," Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported Tuesday.

That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast."Biden administration officials say the offensive began on Monday with a Ukrainian thrust south along multiple axes, Ignatius reported."

Today's SITREP.
Hopefully this is an accurate report- Ignatius is a good reporter and has been doing this for decades.

IF the Ukes have been able to penetrate up to 6 miles in different areas- that is amazingly good news

from watching public source youtubes, it appears that the Uke offensives have failed so this would be awesome maskirovka and OPSEC if indeed Uke armor is penetrating salients and no one is reporting it...
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74OA
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5:16a, 6/8/23
AG
Heavy fighting along the front, partisan groups becoming increasingly bold, now threatening Crimea.

Today's SITREP..

More UPDATES.

[url=https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-zelenskyy-visits-flood-hit-region-as-rescue-efforts-continue/a-65856466][/url]
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rgag12
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In reply to LMCane • 5:40a, 6/8/23
AG
LMCane said:
74OA said:
Despite Kiev remaining tight-lipped, apparently Washington believes the counteroffensive has begun:

"Administration officials "were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front," Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported Tuesday.

That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast."Biden administration officials say the offensive began on Monday with a Ukrainian thrust south along multiple axes, Ignatius reported."

Today's SITREP.
Hopefully this is an accurate report- Ignatius is a good reporter and has been doing this for decades.

IF the Ukes have been able to penetrate up to 6 miles in different areas- that is amazingly good news

from watching public source youtubes, it appears that the Uke offensives have failed so this would be awesome maskirovka and OPSEC if indeed Uke armor is penetrating salients and no one is reporting it...


It appears, from pro-Ukrainian sources, that they're taking moderate to heavy casualties and equipment loses and they aren't even anywhere close to the main Russian defensive lines.

The main Ukrainian thrust are the blue arrows on the right side. They are facing token forces right now in that sector.


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Waffledynamics
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7:55a, 6/8/23
AG
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PJYoung
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8:44a, 6/8/23
AG
lol

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Not a Bot
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8:57a, 6/8/23
AG




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MouthBQ98
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In reply to Not a Bot • 9:03a, 6/8/23
AG
So 5 tanks, 3 IFV, and 40 personnel, after processing this through my Russian to reality algorithm?

Ukraine appears to be trying a broad frontal attack to proble for a breakthrough and keep reserves from being concentrated in any one area. Against prepared defenses, initial casualties will be high until they break through. Then it flips when they get into the enemy rear areas and can roll their frontage up and attack unprepared rear area units. That's just the way this works.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to PJYoung • 9:05a, 6/8/23
AG
Considering that for many months, the Russians were the only ones that had physical access to the dam itself, while the Ukrainians were cut off from it….
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PJYoung
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In reply to MouthBQ98 • 9:08a, 6/8/23
AG
MouthBQ98 said:
Considering that for many months, the Russians were the only ones that had physical access to the dam itself, while the Ukrainians were cut off from it….
Yes obvious Russian war crimes are obvious.

It shouldn't be surprising that now they are shelling the evacuating residents of Kherson.


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2wealfth Man
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10:28a, 6/8/23
AG
Shelling Kherson just seems like a colossal waste of military resources
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aezmvp
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 10:39a, 6/8/23
2wealfth Man said:
Shelling Kherson just seems like a colossal waste of military resources
The idea is to keep boats and small craft away from the water line. If it were me running the Uke side, I'd be putting commando units across the river mixing in with "rescue efforts." I'm sure the shelling is the Russians trying to dissuade that type of activity.
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Gordo14
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In reply to AgLA06 • 10:54a, 6/8/23
AgLA06 said:
Russia propaganda hasn't found a thing yet no matter how humiliating that hasn't been to plan or benefited them.


Sure. Did you know the dam was designed to survive American strategic bombing during the Cold War? Given Russia actually had access to the dam, and Ukraine didn't (entrance located on South side of river), how could Ukraine have destroyed it with the weapons they have. Sure as **** wasn't from artillery fire. But you know why would Tucker Carlson care about that.

Anyways, it appears that Ukraine officially started their offensive. My thoughts and prayers are with them. I expect a lot of chaotic and 0conflicting information for the next hours or days. I am confident they will break through as they are attacking with likely 100-150,000 soldiers and more armor than they ever have. The real question that will determine the outcome is the speed and power they will be able to exploit any breakthrough. Godspeed.
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MouthBQ98
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In reply to 2wealfth Man • 10:56a, 6/8/23
AG
2wealfth Man said:
Shelling Kherson just seems like a colossal waste of military resources


This entire war has been a colossal waste of all kinds of resources. It was "galactically stupid". And so a stupid subset of stupid isn't surprising.
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TriAg2010
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In reply to aezmvp • 12:03p, 6/8/23
AG
aezmvp said:
2wealfth Man said:
Shelling Kherson just seems like a colossal waste of military resources
The idea is to keep boats and small craft away from the water line. If it were me running the Uke side, I'd be putting commando units across the river mixing in with "rescue efforts." I'm sure the shelling is the Russians trying to dissuade that type of activity.


It isn't possible for Russia to "dissuade that type of activity" without also shelling the civilians evacuating the disaster of Russia's making, which makes the whole thing comic book level of villainy. Add this is to the straight up war crimes committed by Russia.
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74OA
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1:45p, 6/8/23
AG
Dozens of Dutch F-16s were just freed up potentially for Ukraine.

JETS
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rgag12
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2:08p, 6/8/23
AG
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Eliminatus
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In reply to rgag12 • 4:44p, 6/8/23
AG
rgag12 said:


Was almost guaranteed. Russia just had too much time. Seen several Uke tanks hit mines already. Russian defensive doctrine calls for extremely heavy use of defensive mines and is one of the most frustrating things to attackers for generations. Mixed with extremely flat fields and constant drone surveillance, it is basically an attackers nightmare. The big tell I think will be how these Uke formations absorb the losses and press on.

Godspeed to them all.

ETA: Not to mention first waves of general offensives into dug in defenders are almost always chopped up badly, even brutally. Just the nature of warfare sadly and one aspect that has not seen any real change since tribes of cavemen decided they hated each other. Gulf War was an exception, not a rule.

From what I have seen so far, Russian arty is still giving the Ukes a metric ton of trouble. The Russians just have absurd amounts of the stuff. With neither side ever gaining air superiority, this has been and will remain attritional warfare. Ratio of 3:1 still manages to hold true on a macro scale it seems like between near peers.

So you have mechanized formations in long flat fields trying to push into prepared defenses while being hammered by the two weapons proven to hamper offensives time and time again. Mines and constant arty. I wince at the overall situation and doubt any nation would have any sort of screaming success in that scenario, including us. Discipline I think will be the major difference between us and anyone else. Still a nightmare. All that being said, this is just the beginning of a long period of action. These casualties will have been calculated and even accepted from planning tables. These next few days I imagine we will see all sorts of flying reports of the offensive either breaking through or being stopped completely, etc. This won't be decided in one day. Or even a week. Take everything with a large amount of salt and just wait for clear results I think is the best course of action for us onlookers.
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Waffledynamics
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5:23p, 6/8/23
AG
Be wary of false reporting.

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Agthatbuilds
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In reply to Eliminatus • 5:44p, 6/8/23
Hopefully they led the way with their old older Soviet armor and not the new western stuff
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Waffledynamics
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6:15p, 6/8/23
AG
Per Denys, a Leopard column was ambushed on the way to the Zap front.

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docb
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8:39p, 6/8/23
AG
They're going to lose some western weapons. Just give them some more as long as they demonstrate that they are putting them to good use. I don't think this offensive is going to be a steamroller event. Not for a while at least.
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Gordo14
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8:51p, 6/8/23
Losses are going to be high, especially early on. It doesn't mean the offensive won't work, it's just the reality of it. The video that I've seen sucks, but that was inevitably going to happen. I mean just think about how long it took Russia to actually take Bakhmut - 10 months of attrition. There's going to be serious attrition, but if the Ukrainians break through they very well might be able to maneuver very quickly as long as they don't get bogged down in city warfare. That's how the make progress. It'll be slow and brutal to start though, for sure.
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2wealfth Man
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In reply to docb • 8:53p, 6/8/23
AG
docb said:
They're going to lose some western weapons. Just give them some more as long as they demonstrate that they are putting them to good use. I don't think this offensive is going to be a steamroller event. Not for a while at least.
as others have said; have some patience
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GarryowenAg
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9:37p, 6/8/23
AG
Great analysis of expectation management on the initial stages of this counteroffensive. US Army doctrine stresses a 3:1 ratio when attacking, however this does not take into account force multipliers regarding the establishment of defensive positions and the type of defense the enemy is conducting (mobile, area, retrograde). It is perceived the orcs are conducting an area defense, which explains the severity of losses. Additionally, when attacking established, fortified positions, doctrine (per FM 3-90-1) calls for a ratio of 9:1 at the division level and 18:1 at the lead battalion level (tip of the spear).

I cannot stress enough the degree to which the Ukes will sustain significant casualties during the penetration movement; it's inevitable. This is going to be a trying 48hrs of non-stop pressing.

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pagerman @ work
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In reply to GarryowenAg • 11:31p, 6/8/23
AG
GarryowenAg said:
Great analysis of expectation management on the initial stages of this counteroffensive. US Army doctrine stresses a 3:1 ratio when attacking, however this does not take into account force multipliers regarding the establishment of defensive positions and the type of defense the enemy is conducting (mobile, area, retrograde). It is perceived the orcs are conducting an area defense, which explains the severity of losses. Additionally, when attacking established, fortified positions, doctrine (per FM 3-90-1) calls for a ratio of 9:1 at the division level and 18:1 at the lead battalion level (tip of the spear).

I cannot stress enough the degree to which the Ukes will sustain significant casualties during the penetration movement; it's inevitable. This is going to be a trying 48hrs of non-stop pressing.


I don't think that high losses are necessarily a problem. The problem comes if they are sustaining high losses while not making progress. As long as the trade of men and materiel makes sense, its good. But taking losses without substantive gains (in dead Russians or territory or preferably both) is not going to work.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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11:50p, 6/8/23
Not a Bot
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8:09a, 6/9/23
AG
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Not a Bot
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8:09a, 6/9/23
AG
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Not a Bot
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8:12a, 6/9/23
AG


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MouthBQ98
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In reply to Not a Bot • 8:33a, 6/9/23
AG
Those mostly look damaged but recoverable with the proper equipment.
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GarryowenAg
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In reply to pagerman @ work • 8:43a, 6/9/23
AG
pagerman @ work said:
GarryowenAg said:
Great analysis of expectation management on the initial stages of this counteroffensive. US Army doctrine stresses a 3:1 ratio when attacking, however this does not take into account force multipliers regarding the establishment of defensive positions and the type of defense the enemy is conducting (mobile, area, retrograde). It is perceived the orcs are conducting an area defense, which explains the severity of losses. Additionally, when attacking established, fortified positions, doctrine (per FM 3-90-1) calls for a ratio of 9:1 at the division level and 18:1 at the lead battalion level (tip of the spear).

I cannot stress enough the degree to which the Ukes will sustain significant casualties during the penetration movement; it's inevitable. This is going to be a trying 48hrs of non-stop pressing.


I don't think that high losses are necessarily a problem. The problem comes if they are sustaining high losses while not making progress. As long as the trade of men and materiel makes sense, it's good. But taking losses without substantive gains (in dead Russians or territory or preferably both) is not going to work.
For clarification purposes, I am not concerned, at this point in time, about casualty numbers. My previous post was to set expectation management for those who are not familiar with military planning during offensive operations. People always jump to the 3:1 ratio, however that is a generalize assumption that is not always accurate. I was merely attempting to manage expectations on casualty rates during the penetration phase of this operation and provide clarity.
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2000AgPhD
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8:51a, 6/9/23
We live in an age of instant gratification - many people expect things to happen quickly, and that is simply not the case. It is easy to look back in history and now see how "the Germans/Soviets/USA swiftly overcame opposition" blah, blah, blah, but in real time, whether it was in Poland, France, Russia, or wherever, "swift" is relative and actually took days or weeks for it to happen. If this IS the counteroffensive, I would not expect to have a clear picture of what is going on for another week to ten days.
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The Fife
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 8:59a, 6/9/23
True, for people my age we have Desert Storm and Operation Iraqi Freedom to thank for that. The situation in Ukraine is just apples and oranges in comparison.

I haven't checked live UA maps, but have any of the supposed advances been posted on it?
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2wealfth Man
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 9:09a, 6/9/23
AG
2000AgPhD said:
We live in an age of instant gratification - many people expect things to happen quickly, and that is simply not the case. It is easy to look back in history and now see how "the Germans/Soviets/USA swiftly overcame opposition" blah, blah, blah, but in real time, whether it was in Poland, France, Russia, or wherever, "swift" is relative and actually took days or weeks for it to happen. If this IS the counteroffensive, I would not expect to have a clear picture of what is going on for another week to ten days.
right, we will see how poorly trained and equipped Russian regulars fare against repeated assaults with a modernized Uke army. I would also assume that Orc artillery is now subject to counter-fire now that they have revealed themselves. I think once there is any penetration in force, look out.
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Gordo14
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In reply to 2000AgPhD • 9:57a, 6/9/23
2000AgPhD said:
We live in an age of instant gratification - many people expect things to happen quickly, and that is simply not the case. It is easy to look back in history and now see how "the Germans/Soviets/USA swiftly overcame opposition" blah, blah, blah, but in real time, whether it was in Poland, France, Russia, or wherever, "swift" is relative and actually took days or weeks for it to happen. If this IS the counteroffensive, I would not expect to have a clear picture of what is going on for another week to ten days.


I think the other thing to realize is that Ukraine was keeping their armor for this offensive well away from the frontlines so that they weren't telegraphing what the plan was and weren't a target for artillery. They are probably only really attacking with probing attacks and light armor right now. - clearing mines and degrading defensive strength. The tanks will start rolling after they refuel, refit, reform, and identify the weakest part if the lines. That's why the video of Ukrainian losses that everyone has seen occurred miles behind the front line. The actual weight of Ukraine's strength in armored vehicles has yet to be seen, in my opinion.
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