***** OFFICIAL Russia v. Ukraine *****

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HumpitPuryear
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Rossticus said:

We let that genie out of the bottle a long time ago and we can't even hope to get it back in until Putin and China are put to bed. We never should have been in the Middle East. We split Vietnam and Korea but Korea is looking like a very wise decision given the current China sitch.

We can't be the America we want to be in today's world till the vestiges of last century (at least with regard to other superpowers) are swept away because they have a bullseye on us and our allies economically and militarily.

Finish the job and then we can rest easy because there's nobody else to come for us. Taking care of Russia will help sit China the ferk down and change their tone for the foreseeable future and avoid an ever costlier confrontation in the Pacific.

Put Putin down here and he's done Politically. This would expose weakness and poor judgement and kill him at home. It would also result in a crippling blow to his military. He's got everything out in the open. This would essentially eliminate Putin as a future threat and reduce our need for appreciable NATO involvement and contribution in future years. Long term this is the move. Any short term gain would be very brief before we're right back where we are now.

I want this over. All of it. I want to be what we're supposed to be but we can't treat the world like we did Afghanistan, Iraq. If you half ass it, it ALWAYS comes back to bite you in the ass.

If we take the above mentality and the world knows we mean it, there's every likelihood that nary a shot is even fired in a conflict between us and either Russia or China and we maintain stasis.
Whether this is good advice or not doesn't really matter. It's simply not going to happen under this administration. It probably wouldn't have happened under Trump either but it was far more likely which is why Putin has waited until now to pull the trigger. We are all going to watch Ukraine get swallowed and Putin further solidify his power base. The calculus is different with Taiwan, the stakes higher.

America is under attack from within. The global cabal that is funding and orchestrating that attack has no interest in America being the shining example of freedom and righteousness in the world. That interferes with the world one-nation objective. Until the USA, Canada, Australia, UK, France purge the globalist influence and control we are going to be feckless rubes on the international stage and bullies and tyrants are going to make hay.
Jayhawk
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ABATTBQ11 said:

The world was a lot different in Washington's day, and as great as he was, he wasn't infallible. In Washington's day, any country could pretty much be self sufficient because the world was mostly agrarian. In the modern world, everyone is dependent on someone and somewhere else, so it is much easier to gain leverage on the resources that a country needs without ever challenging it directly. Other people's problems can quickly become your problems whether you like it or not. Yes, it was smart to stay out of Europe's wars because they were over the resources that Europeans competed for, but even Washington would have admitted that it was worthwhile to get involved in someone else's conflict when it threatened or impacted your own interests (trade routes, supplies, etc).
Assuming your premises about interconnectedness of economies necessitating greater military engagement; Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine are not worth the risk of war with Russia based on any analysis of our exposure to their economies.

Another key difference from Washington's day and our own is the existence of nuclear weapons. If anything we should approach the question of war with great powers with more caution and circumspection then the Founders.

Times have changed, but human nature hasn't and does not. Great powers will still seek spheres of influence, if we mean to challenge them and risk nuclear war, it had better be worth it. Traditional Russian imperial domains on the eastern periphery of Europe are not worth it, and that is evidenced by the fact that we thrived as a republic for two and a half centuries while Riga, Kiev, etc. languished under Russian dominion.

I don't like it anymore than you do. I want the Eastern Euros to be independent. But part of statesmanship is knowing your limits.
Rossticus
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LMCane said:

Rossticus said:

A is A said:

Rossticus said:


and?


Russia forcing 18 year old Ukrainians to fight… Ukrainians. I mean, it's not a surprise but it's effed up. Like making 18 year olds from College Station fight people from Houston.

not really an apt analogy

they are Russians who happened to have lived in Ukraine (if that report is even true)

that doesn't mean they are shooting their brothers. they are Russians and fighting the Ukrainians

the better analogy is 1861 and a kid from Connecticut who was living in Virginia now has to fight other Virginians


Guess it depends on who they're conscripting. Everything I've heard in Ukrainian media is there is no substantive difference in sentiment between civilians in occupied territory and Ukrainian territory. The common Ukrainians, Russian speaking as well just want peace. The overwhelming majority of Russian speakers in Donbas aren't in support of the occupation and the hell that their lives have become.
lunchbox
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Wouldn't put it past Russia to trick Ukraine into shooting down something they claim was a passenger jet.
YouBet
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Personally, I'd like to see us launch airstrikes against the Russians in Ukraine. Use predators to draw out their SAMs and hit their armor while using F-35's and F-22's to hit their air defenses and aircraft. Minimize the risk to our pilots as much as possible while giving Russia something to think about.
This is insane. If you were going for that, you win!
Rossticus
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lunchbox said:



Wouldn't put it past Russia to trick Ukraine into shooting down something they claim was a passenger jet.


Russian proxies did it and nobody gave a isht, in the long run sooooo….
Rossticus
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Speaking of…


Rossticus
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Rossticus
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Rossticus
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javajaws
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To you warmongers suggesting we respond militarily in Ukraine, if you want to do something provocative you could instead go in and take Kaliningrad as retribution (and if you don't know where that is at go look at a map and it'll make obvious sense).

Not that I'm seriously suggesting this...but if you're looking to poke the bear...
Rossticus
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Rossticus
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What do y'all think is precipitating this?

lunchbox
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Rossticus said:

What do y'all think is precipitating this?


Russian bots mass reporting the OSINT accounts to twitter which potentially triggers an auto-timeout until someone from Twitter intervenes.
Rossticus
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javajaws said:

To you warmongers suggesting we respond militarily in Ukraine, if you want to do something provocative you could instead go in and take Kaliningrad as retribution (and if you don't know where that is at go look at a map and it'll make obvious sense).

Not that I'm seriously suggesting this...but if you're looking to poke the bear...


Hell, as long as it won't void my life insurance I'll piss on Vlad's shoe.
mickeyrig06sq3
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javajaws said:

To you warmongers suggesting we respond militarily in Ukraine, if you want to do something provocative you could instead go in and take Kaliningrad as retribution (and if you don't know where that is at go look at a map and it'll make obvious sense).

Not that I'm seriously suggesting this...but if you're looking to poke the bear...
Now that would be funny. That, or just go ahead and sack Moscow. Russia has all their troops committed to Ukraine; base is undefended, go grab the flag.
jabberwalkie09
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Drone surveillance we can see has stepped up today. There's currently two USAF RQ-4's up over Ukraine and a NATO drone is now up off Sigonila (same location the Forte flights originate). This is in addition to the manned flights we could see today with a Royal Air Force RC-135 and a USAF RC-135, which were in the sky at the same time as NATO's E-3.
Rossticus
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lunchbox said:

Rossticus said:

What do y'all think is precipitating this?


Russian bots mass reporting the OSINT accounts to twitter which potentially triggers an auto-timeout until someone from Twitter intervenes.


Considered that but thought that Twitter might have taken measures to negate it once this began a couple of days ago. Should have known better. Trump gets de-platformed but Russian disinfo and cyber are cool. Wtf.
jabberwalkie09
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Rossticus
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jabberwalkie09 said:

Drone surveillance we can see has stepped up today. There's currently two USAF RQ-4's up over Ukraine and a NATO drone is now up off Sigonila (same location the Forte flights originate). This is in addition to the manned flights we could see today with a Royal Air Force RC-135 and a USAF RC-135, which were in the sky at the same time as NATO's E-3.


lunchbox
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The accounts I follow that were getting timed out repeatedly were being restored quicker as the day went on.
ntxVol
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Follow the money.
javajaws
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Rossticus said:

jabberwalkie09 said:

Drone surveillance we can see has stepped up today. There's currently two USAF RQ-4's up over Ukraine and a NATO drone is now up off Sigonila (same location the Forte flights originate). This is in addition to the manned flights we could see today with a Royal Air Force RC-135 and a USAF RC-135, which were in the sky at the same time as NATO's E-3.



They are definitely watching for forces moving out of the Donbas. It'll be interesting to see if Ukrainian forces have set up a line of defense out there somewhere.
Rossticus
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javajaws said:

To you warmongers suggesting we respond militarily in Ukraine, if you want to do something provocative you could instead go in and take Kaliningrad as retribution (and if you don't know where that is at go look at a map and it'll make obvious sense).

Not that I'm seriously suggesting this...but if you're looking to poke the bear...


Poke the Bear…

ABATTBQ11
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Interconnectedness doesn't necessitate more military engagement, only the willingness to engage. They're distinctly different. It's a basic risk/reward problem.

If no one is willing to forcefully confront bad behavior, there is no reason not to act badly if it is in your self-interest because there is no risk for your reward. Every bad actor will act badly, and eventually they will act against you. Conflict will inevitably find you either directly or through your interests being interrupted (no gas, lack of microchips, etc).

If there is someone willing to engage in violence on anyone else's behalf simply to keep the peace, then that risk/reward calculation changes substantially. Many bad actors will be deterred, and conflict is mostly a possibility. The threat of force diminishes the need for the actual use of force. Yes, you will inevitably need to back up the threat of force with force on occasion, but it is better to fight the skirmishes than the war.

Behavioral economists call it altruistic punishment, and it is a cornerstone of cooperation and civilization. When individuals within a society are willing to sacrifice their own self interest to ensure the good and fair treatment of others, more optimal outcomes are achieved than if everyone just looks out for themselves. Bad behavior and conflict is minimized by threat of action.

It's why police and aggressive prosecution are so important to maintaining order in our societies. Look at LA and SF. Their crime rates have risen substantially because of their wire DA's and a lack of aggressive prosecution for crimes. Without someone willing to enforce the law, the threat of consequence is gone. Criminals are emboldened and act accordingly. If crime was one again aggressively prosecuted, the threat of arrest and prosecution would diminish the behavior that leads to arrests and prosecution, reducing the need for arrests and prosecutions. The rich liberals of LA and SF have come to realize this. They were all in on the likes of Gascon and Boudin, but they have had to rethink their stance as crime has come into their once protected and peaceful enclaves. By taking the,"Not my problem," approach, we are effectively taking up their position and waiting until the issue becomes so large it arrives at our doorstep.

Putin is no more than a bully. He will do whatever he thinks he can get away with and will not any away from some minor trouble. However, if you approach him with a baseball bat in hand and tell him to **** around and find out, he will most likely turn around and go home. As has been noted ad infinitum, an unwillingness to aggressively check behavior like Russia's only emboldens others to do the same. Today it is Ukraine, but tomorrow it can be somewhere much moe strategically important to our interests.
deddog
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You can see follow the GlobalHawk here:

https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE12/2aea8ac9
Rossticus
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Guess Russia has to invade Finland next.

Malibu
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Bravo sir.
Rossticus
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Russia going to make a lot of Ukrainians disappear…

deddog
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Rossticus said:

Guess Russia has to invade Finland next.


Wouldn't that be awesome, if this Russian invasion resulted in a whole bunch of countries joining NATO?
I don't think the current NATO members have the balls though.
jabberwalkie09
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FamousAgg
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Rossticus said:

Russia going to make a lot of Ukrainians disappear…




Waste of fuel. We developed robots that are energized by burning organics…

https://www.wired.com/2009/07/military-researchers-develop-corpse-eating-robots/
javajaws
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Rossticus said:

Guess Russia has to invade Finland next.


That just really rubs me the wrong way (the fact that they would wait until they need us to apply).
mickeyrig06sq3
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ABATTBQ11 said:

Putin is no more than a bully. He will do whatever he thinks he can get away with and will not any away from some minor trouble. However, if you approach him with a baseball bat in hand and tell him to **** around and find out, he will most likely turn around and go home. As has been noted ad infinitum, an unwillingness to aggressively check behavior like Russia's only emboldens others to do the same. Today it is Ukraine, but tomorrow it can be somewhere much moe strategically important to our interests.
Has Putin gone past the point of no return? He doesn't have re-election worries, he's going on 70, and has an ego the size of Siberia. Is he willing to set aside the ego to avoid provocation, or will he just press the gas pedal because he'd rather go down swinging than look weak?

The other question is money. The sanctions do suck, but how much money has their government thrown away just for this latest provocation. In for a penny, in for a pound?
aggie_fan13
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So when does this war start? They've been saying tomorrow for two weeks now
some men you just cant reach ...
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