BREAKING: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered 800 U.S. troops to the Baltic region and eight F-35 fighter jets to NATO’s eastern flank.

Senior U.S. defense official said 20 AH-64 attack helos moving to Baltics and 12 helos to Poland.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) February 22, 2022

Rossticus said:

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BREAKING: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered 800 U.S. troops to the Baltic region and eight F-35 fighter jets to NATO’s eastern flank.

Senior U.S. defense official said 20 AH-64 attack helos moving to Baltics and 12 helos to Poland.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) February 22, 2022

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I get the Army AUSA emails every week-

Army being forced to cut number of troops due to not enough budget.

so that's great when facing a resurgent Russia, China, and Iran.

Poland did ask Trump for a permanent military base there in 2018.

That's it! I am sure Putin will turn his 190,000 troops/tanks/missiles/artillery/aircraft around and high tail it back to the motherland!!!

Rossticus said:

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A lot of Russian-speaking Ukrainians write on social media that they are switching to Ukrainian as a sign of loyalty and in reaction to Putin's speech. The more Putin tries to convince everyone that Ukrainians do not exist, the more he strengthens Ukrainian national identity

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) February 22, 2022

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some report last night was showing that Odessa had previously leaned pro-Russia back in 2014

now solidly pro-Kyiv

who knows if really true but would be interesting

It really seems like the Ukrainian leaders and much of their populace (at least in the western half) just simply thought Putin wouldn't do this and was bluffing. Or, they actually thought we and NATO would come to their aid beyond some handoff weaponry.

Terrible miscalculation by Zelenskyy.

LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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BREAKING: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered 800 U.S. troops to the Baltic region and eight F-35 fighter jets to NATO’s eastern flank.

Senior U.S. defense official said 20 AH-64 attack helos moving to Baltics and 12 helos to Poland.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) February 22, 2022

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here's a crazy idea-

how about the OTHER 26 NATO COUNTRIES actually send their troops to the Baltics and Poland?

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They've been doing that for almost a decade. Rotating battlegroups and fighters, too. NATO

YouBet said:

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It really seems like the Ukrainian leaders and much of their populace (at least in the western half) just simply thought Putin wouldn't do this and was bluffing. Or, they actually thought we and NATO would come to their aid beyond some handoff weaponry.

Terrible miscalculation by Zelenskyy.

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Delusion you mean.

LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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BREAKING: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered 800 U.S. troops to the Baltic region and eight F-35 fighter jets to NATO’s eastern flank.

Senior U.S. defense official said 20 AH-64 attack helos moving to Baltics and 12 helos to Poland.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) February 22, 2022

---

here's a crazy idea-

how about the OTHER 26 NATO COUNTRIES actually send their troops to the Baltics and Poland?

---

That's funny for two reasons:

1) It'll never happen (at least not more than normal)

and

2) It's not like they are doing anything else - they're not being used in Iraq or Afghanistan that's for sure. I hear Canada has their troops occupied for the foreseeable future though...


Oh...and fwiw there are 30 total countries in NATO.

Rossticus said:

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DTP02 said:

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Rossticus said:

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Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania are interesting locations for re-deployment. Non-escalatory inter-theater movement to get forces closer to Poland just in case things get weird? Those countries don't seem to be at particular risk.

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It's clearly non-escalatory, meaningless movement just to say we did something else.

But saying the Baltics aren't at particular risk? If any NATO member is at particular risk, it's the Baltic states. They're literally sandwiched between two pieces of Russian soil. Plus they're very weakly defended.

I have some Estonian friends and I can guarantee you they're quite concerned about what's going on in the Ukraine. They had a healthy fear of Russia even before this.

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That's what I was looking for. Basically whether there was legitimate fear that Putin could try and pull a drive by and cut them off somewhere in all of this.

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Russia has been arguing with Lithuania about the land transit route to Kaliningrad for years. The assumed first play in the Russian Baltic playbook would be to insist on a DMZ along the route, which would be step 1 in encroaching on Baltic sovereign territory.

I actually think moving a thousand more troops into Baltic countries probably plays into Putin's hands in that regard, unfortunately, without being nearly enough to accomplish anything defensively. It's a tightrope, for sure: how much is enough to matter without being so much that it looks like aggression ?

javajaws said:

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LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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BREAKING: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered 800 U.S. troops to the Baltic region and eight F-35 fighter jets to NATO’s eastern flank.

Senior U.S. defense official said 20 AH-64 attack helos moving to Baltics and 12 helos to Poland.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) February 22, 2022

---

here's a crazy idea-

how about the OTHER 26 NATO COUNTRIES actually send their troops to the Baltics and Poland?

---

That's funny for two reasons:

1) It'll never happen

and

2) It's not like they are doing anything else - they're not being used in Iraq or Afghanistan that's for sure. I hear Canada has their troops occupied for the foreseeable future though...


Oh...and fwiw there are 30 total countries in NATO.

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See my previous just above.

Stlkofta said:

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Rossticus said:

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Yeah. When will all these boobs realize that press statements and stern looking photo ops do not constitute swift and decisive action. Neither do sanctions unless they carry the threat of immediate and highly consequential impact.

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Because Biden has been a soy boy all his life, he has to create stories and craft narratives to make him appear to be a strong leader.

The tough talk, about events he has neither the resolve nor the intestinal fortitude to do anything about, is all for show.

Putin is his international Corn Pop.

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International Corn Pop. Great user name for the taking.

74OA said:

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javajaws said:

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LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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BREAKING: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered 800 U.S. troops to the Baltic region and eight F-35 fighter jets to NATO’s eastern flank.

Senior U.S. defense official said 20 AH-64 attack helos moving to Baltics and 12 helos to Poland.

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) February 22, 2022

---

here's a crazy idea-

how about the OTHER 26 NATO COUNTRIES actually send their troops to the Baltics and Poland?

---

That's funny for two reasons:

1) It'll never happen

and

2) It's not like they are doing anything else - they're not being used in Iraq or Afghanistan that's for sure. I hear Canada has their troops occupied for the foreseeable future though...


Oh...and fwiw there are 30 total countries in NATO.

---

See my previous just above.

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Yeah...edited to clarify I meant not more troops than they normally do...

YouBet said:

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It really seems like the Ukrainian leaders and much of their populace (at least in the western half) just simply thought Putin wouldn't do this and was bluffing. Or, they actually thought we and NATO would come to their aid beyond some handoff weaponry.

Terrible miscalculation by Zelenskyy.

---

I think they've been lulled into a false sense of complacency with the protracted status quo in Donbas. Felt that's where it would end. To be fair, that seems like what most international leaders (and folks on this board) assumed as well. Putin caught everyone with their pants down by going full Hitler. I think that if we'd had a crystal ball everyone would have played this MUCH differently.

75 years without a land war in Europe made many think that we'd progressed past the point of it being a realistic concern. That the world had changed too much for it to happen. That it was a historic relic of a bygone mentality.

Surprise mother**ckers! Heeeeeeere's Putie!

Rossticus said:

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YouBet said:

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It really seems like the Ukrainian leaders and much of their populace (at least in the western half) just simply thought Putin wouldn't do this and was bluffing. Or, they actually thought we and NATO would come to their aid beyond some handoff weaponry.

Terrible miscalculation by Zelenskyy.

---

I think they've been lulled into a false sense of complacency with the protracted status quo in Donbas. Felt that's where it would end. To be fair, that seems like what most international leaders (and folks on this board) assumed as well. Putin caught everyone with their pants down by going full Hitler. I think that if we'd had a crystal ball everyone would have played this MUCH differently.

75 years without a land war in Europe made many think that we'd progressed past the point of it being a realistic concern. That the world had changed too much for it to happen. That it was a historic relic of a bygone mentality.

Surprise mother**ckers! Heeeeeeere's Putie!

---

Putin is playing 3D chess with Europe, while the European leaders are sitting around trying to read the instructions to Candy Land.

just got this in my email for a seminar I had registered for:

POSTPONED

Due to an unforeseen schedule change, this event has been postponed. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Featuring:

H.E. Dmytro Kuleba
Foreign Minister of Ukraine

aggiesheriff04 said:

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Rossticus said:

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YouBet said:

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It really seems like the Ukrainian leaders and much of their populace (at least in the western half) just simply thought Putin wouldn't do this and was bluffing. Or, they actually thought we and NATO would come to their aid beyond some handoff weaponry.

Terrible miscalculation by Zelenskyy.

---

I think they've been lulled into a false sense of complacency with the protracted status quo in Donbas. Felt that's where it would end. To be fair, that seems like what most international leaders (and folks on this board) assumed as well. Putin caught everyone with their pants down by going full Hitler. I think that if we'd had a crystal ball everyone would have played this MUCH differently.

75 years without a land war in Europe made many think that we'd progressed past the point of it being a realistic concern. That the world had changed too much for it to happen. That it was a historic relic of a bygone mentality.

Surprise mother**ckers! Heeeeeeere's Putie!

---

Putin is playing 3D chess with Europe, while the European leaders are sitting around trying to read the instructions to Candy Land.

---

To me it's more like you've been playing two hand touch at the rec fields for three years and suddenly you're playing a rugby team that said "full contact" and you didn't believe they were serious until they trucked everyone on your team for a TD with a wedge play.

Now it's your call. Do you play to win or do you just stand there while they rack up scores till the game is over so you don't have to get bloody and dirty.

Oh, and there's $500 and a case of beer on the line. Not more than you can afford but it's going to sting giving it up and it may bite you in the ass later in the month.

Faustus said:

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aTmAg said:

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Dude, you are batting 0 today.

Saddam didn't get hung because "he didn't go nuclear". He got invaded and hung BECAUSE everybody thought he was pursuing nukes. And then Ghaddafi saw that and gave up his nuke program to avoid getting hung himself.

Basically 180 degrees off from what you said

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If Saddam had nuclear weapons he'd still be in power today.
Same with Gaddafi.

It's the reason Pakistan has any parity with India.

I don't know what to tell you if you think the lesson learned by Iran and N. Korea from those situations is we'd best play by the rules. Gaddafi was bombed by NATO notwithstanding giving up his nuclear weapons program.

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If Saddam never pretended to work on nukes he's still be in power today. Just like the leader of almost every country in the world that has no nukes. And Gaddafi would likely still be dead as the his people were revolting against him.

Basically the lesson's learned from the WOT is the opposite of what you claim.

North Korea taught us the lesson you are talking about and now Ukraine, but NOT Saddam and Qaddafi.

Rossticus said:

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YouBet said:

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It really seems like the Ukrainian leaders and much of their populace (at least in the western half) just simply thought Putin wouldn't do this and was bluffing. Or, they actually thought we and NATO would come to their aid beyond some handoff weaponry.

Terrible miscalculation by Zelenskyy.

---

I think they've been lulled into a false sense of complacency with the protracted status quo in Donbas. Felt that's where it would end. To be fair, that seems like what most international leaders (and folks on this board) assumed as well. Putin caught everyone with their pants down by going full Hitler. I think that if we'd had a crystal ball everyone would have played this MUCH differently.

75 years without a land war in Europe made many think that we'd progressed past the point of it being a realistic concern. That the world had changed too much for it to happen. That it was a historic relic of a bygone mentality.

Surprise mother**ckers! Heeeeeeere's Putie!

---

Obama stated several times that there was no need for nuclear weapons, and that there was a new history without war on the horizon.

shocker.

carbon neutral pronoun jackshack

LMCane said:

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Rossticus said:

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YouBet said:

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It really seems like the Ukrainian leaders and much of their populace (at least in the western half) just simply thought Putin wouldn't do this and was bluffing. Or, they actually thought we and NATO would come to their aid beyond some handoff weaponry.

Terrible miscalculation by Zelenskyy.

---

I think they've been lulled into a false sense of complacency with the protracted status quo in Donbas. Felt that's where it would end. To be fair, that seems like what most international leaders (and folks on this board) assumed as well. Putin caught everyone with their pants down by going full Hitler. I think that if we'd had a crystal ball everyone would have played this MUCH differently.

75 years without a land war in Europe made many think that we'd progressed past the point of it being a realistic concern. That the world had changed too much for it to happen. That it was a historic relic of a bygone mentality.

Surprise mother**ckers! Heeeeeeere's Putie!

---

Obama stated several times that there was no need for nuclear weapons, and that there was a new history without war on the horizon.

shocker.

---

The world is never completely safe when human nature is the ultimate dictating factor.

Unless every country is afraid of getting dusted by the other collective global majority for pulling a stunt like this, things will never change. The consequences have to be so severe that it's virtually unthinkable.

Of course that scenario comes with its own set of issues but that's an entirely different philosophical discussion.

Біле, Луганська обл., у західному напрямку 48.493690978043254, 39.048243433406135 https://t.co/YyC9KktkUJ

— Danvan (@danvan71) February 22, 2022

Reuters: "All members of Russia's Duma, parliament's lower house, will be hit with EU sanctions, which typically involve travel bans and asset freezes."
Wow! Extend travel bans on their wifes, children and mistresses!

— Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) February 22, 2022

A number of additional countries including Britain, Norway, Denmark, Germany at a minimum have all sent additional troops. Orban in Hungary has ordered additional training and is clearly ramping up some home guard type stuff. I'm not sure if they've sent any considering they're about to share a border. Poland has received additional from us, Britain, Croatia, Romania and I believe others. There has been a small ramp up over the last 6 months or so and I'd have to dig through a lot of trash to find it all.

LMCane said:

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just got this in my email for a seminar I had registered for:

POSTPONED

Due to an unforeseen schedule change, this event has been postponed. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Featuring:

H.E. Dmytro Kuleba
Foreign Minister of Ukraine

---

Must have had a scheduling conflict...

Everything hinges on what NATO decides now. Do they bank on a NATO supported Ukrainian insurgency, shadow government and sanctions to outlast Putin and cross their fingers?

Do they send in their limited response force, should Putin advance past Donbas region, to buffer Kyiv or Lviv and dare Putin to engage (which they haven't yet ruled out) and hope all hell doesn't break loose?

Tense.

Hopefully once Russia moves into new territory. If Ukraine responded to the ongoing artillery attacks, Russia would kick things off to "protect" the separatists like they did in Georgia.

SouthTex99 said:

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When does Ukraine step up resistance? Or is this Afghanistan 2021 all over again?

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They have to be very strategic. They can't just meet the Russian army head up or there won't be any point. Probably waiting to see if he pushes out of Donbas on his own and then go from there. Greater likelihood of more support if Putin signals intent to take whole country with actual military movements.

Rossticus said:

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Everything hinges on what NATO decides now. Do they bank on a NATO supported Ukrainian insurgency, shadow government and sanctions to outlast Putin and cross their fingers?

Do they send in their limited response force, should Putin advance past Donbask region, to buffer Kyiv or Lviv and dare Putin to engage (which they haven't yet ruled out) and hope all hell doesn't break loose?

Tense.

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There is zero chance NATO troops enter Ukraine. That would open up a can of worms that we don't want to deal with. We will run a proxy insurgency, defend the NATO countries, and hopefully come to a stalemate at that point.

SouthTex99 said:

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When does Ukraine step up resistance? Or is this Afghanistan 2021 all over again?

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Ukraine will not execute large scale military action until either missiles, planes or tanks roll across the front line in Donbass or any other existing border. They just can't afford to. I know people on here have said launch a first strike, but it's a pipe dream IMO. Here is why I think this:

1) It's a huge propaganda win for Putin.
2) It immediately authorizes a full scale invasion if Putin's goals don't already include this. (It probably does.)
3) It most likely will not inflict sufficient damage/casualties to disrupt Russia's overall timeline. ****
4) It exposes some/all of the units involved to total annihilation. (They're already at this risk but it would be even riskier.)

That strike would be carried out by artillery, which should be well back and the Ukrainian artillery isn't really heavy enough caliber and would be pinpointed very quickly by the fire finder radar we know is already up and running, missiles (best option) or planes. Those planes are already facing a significant radar picket line and are better suited right now to trying to deny the Russians total air supremacy. I would expect at the end of this some of the Ukrainian planes will end up in Poland.

But really... reason 3 is the spot. They won't do enough because they have to move forces up and it is an unnecessary waste in an already really bad spot. If I was in Ukraine I'd have a shovel out.