Can't remember if on this thread or another but I pegged the most advantageous invasion time from here until the end of the month based on weather and leverage via energy supplies to Europe being cut off providing leverage. I still think that's the case, but if it's not in this window they could draw back their forces a bit then push them back up to the line around mid March. Use that time for additional recon and analysis of response to this build up to plan their strike. I'd still not be saying sarcastic things on national TV and pissing off all your allies.Rossticus said:
What Russia really wants is an "oooops" moment to kick this all off. They've got a giant assed dry tinderbox and all they need is a spark to get this mofo rolling. Putin would much prefer that to clearly giving the order to roll in. I think he keeps stacking assets and bides his time hoping someone's finger slips. Increased tensions play to his advantage.
LMCane said:LOL?!GAC06 said:LMCane said:we could reestablish deterrence by bombing the hell out of the Iranian nuclear facilities'GAC06 said:
We could have deterred Russia without doing much to expose Taiwan, especially if NATO was actually on board. Not much role for the army in Taiwan anyway.
but Biden and his team of idiots are too stupid
and would rather saber rattle with the two strongest countries on the planet
How is Biden "saber rattling"? Russia has mobilized and deployed virtually their entire military, we sent a few planes of ammunition. China hasn't really changed anything IRT to Taiwan and neither have we.
you mean the fact that Zelensky and the Ukrainians are every day telling the Americans IN PUBLIC to stop raising panic levels and the Russians blasting American hysteria and warmongering?!
that's not saber rattling?
GarryowenAg said:
I heard somewhere that if Russia were to invade, they'd have to do it this month due to the spring thaw. Once the ice/snow begins to thaw, Russian tanks stand a strong risk of being mired.
Agthatbuilds said:GarryowenAg said:
I heard somewhere that if Russia were to invade, they'd have to do it this month due to the spring thaw. Once the ice/snow begins to thaw, Russian tanks stand a strong risk of being mired.
It's a real problem that's already causing stuck tanks
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-tanks-stuck-mud-ukraine/
jabberwalkie09 said:
Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.
Or pressure Turkey to cut off the straits and strand the Russian navy in the Black Sea?LMCane said:jabberwalkie09 said:
Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.
if the West ever actually confirms the Russkies are about to attack...
wouldn't it be the best decision for the Ukrainian air force and navy to launch preemptive attacks as much as they are able?
if they sit back and wait to get hit they will be annihilated before getting into the air or moving around- same with their artillery and tanks
it's almost better for them to kamikaze with as much mechanized force as possible to create as many Russian casualties and losses.
LMCane said:jabberwalkie09 said:
Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.
if the West ever actually confirms the Russkies are about to attack...
wouldn't it be the best decision for the Ukrainian air force and navy to launch preemptive attacks as much as they are able?
if they sit back and wait to get hit they will be annihilated before getting into the air or moving around- same with their artillery and tanks
it's almost better for them to kamikaze with as much mechanized force as possible to create as many Russian casualties and losses.
This would be the place to start. But I really doubt Turkey wants to piss off Russia right now or at all given that Turkey has been looking into purchasing military equipment from Russia or developing systems with their help.aggiehawg said:Or pressure Turkey to cut off the straits and strand the Russian navy in the Black Sea?LMCane said:jabberwalkie09 said:
Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.
if the West ever actually confirms the Russkies are about to attack...
wouldn't it be the best decision for the Ukrainian air force and navy to launch preemptive attacks as much as they are able?
if they sit back and wait to get hit they will be annihilated before getting into the air or moving around- same with their artillery and tanks
it's almost better for them to kamikaze with as much mechanized force as possible to create as many Russian casualties and losses.
Turkey has been actively subverting NATO in cooperating with Russia and providing them access to NATO weapon systems. In addition they've done several things in limiting bases/airspace to hinder NATO member backed missions in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East. They may be a NATO member, but they haven't acted like one for the last 4-5 years minimum.aggiehawg said:
Understood but Turkey is a member of NATO and there is some leverage on that score if this thing goes hot.
I'm having a good day. Not an aggiehawg good day with a bazillion stars, but a good posting day for me!JayHowdy! said:
I would not trust Turkey when it comes to Russia.
They have been very big military customers lately buying Russian missile systems. It has really upset Washington.
Edit - aezmvp beat me to it.
ALERT 🚨 U.S. official says satelite images show Russia troops leaving assembly points and moving to attack positions - CBS
— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) February 14, 2022
*U.S. CITIZENS SHOULD DEPART BELARUS IMMEDIATELY: STATE DEPT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 15, 2022
will25u said:*U.S. CITIZENS SHOULD DEPART BELARUS IMMEDIATELY: STATE DEPT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 15, 2022
Salute CornPops Message said:
But I thought commander in chief nimrod's admin "planned for all contingencies" and "is not surprised".....
Franc-Tireur af https://t.co/LrekttmXtC
— David B. Larter (@DavidLarter) February 15, 2022
Israel says hold my beerrgag12 said:LMCane said:jabberwalkie09 said:
Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.
if the West ever actually confirms the Russkies are about to attack...
wouldn't it be the best decision for the Ukrainian air force and navy to launch preemptive attacks as much as they are able?
if they sit back and wait to get hit they will be annihilated before getting into the air or moving around- same with their artillery and tanks
it's almost better for them to kamikaze with as much mechanized force as possible to create as many Russian casualties and losses.
So you'd validate pretty much what Putin said would happen, give them a legitimate excuse to invade, and you'd still get destroyed.
There's a reason why smaller countries don't do preemptive strikes and usually rely on diplomacy to deter conflict. I say usually because we all know what happened after Imperial Japan poked a bear
.@StateDeptSpox: We have taken the prudent steps of updating the Travel Advisory for Ukraine to urge U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine immediately using any available mode of transportation, and now, we are in the process of relocating our diplomatic staff from Kyiv to Lviv. pic.twitter.com/K5zx3GNTXK
— Department of State (@StateDept) February 14, 2022
aggiehawg said:
Understood but Turkey is a member of NATO and there is some leverage on that score if this thing goes hot.
Russia's parliament will vote on Tuesday to decide whether to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, the speaker of the Duma lower house said. https://t.co/Q5QPAlZWs4
— Vivian Salama (@vmsalama) February 15, 2022
Think sitting ducks on a pond with supply lines cut.CharlieBrown17 said:aggiehawg said:
Understood but Turkey is a member of NATO and there is some leverage on that score if this thing goes hot.
What good exactly does a NATO member stranding a navy in the sea by a non NATO country they're attacking do?
aggiehawg said:Think sitting ducks on a pond with supply lines cut.CharlieBrown17 said:aggiehawg said:
Understood but Turkey is a member of NATO and there is some leverage on that score if this thing goes hot.
What good exactly does a NATO member stranding a navy in the sea by a non NATO country they're attacking do?
You know, actual military tactics.