What Russia really wants is an "oooops" moment to kick this all off. They've got a giant assed dry tinderbox and all they need is a spark to get this mofo rolling. Putin would much prefer that to clearly giving the order to roll in. I think he keeps stacking assets and bides his time hoping someone's finger slips. Increased tensions play to his advantage.

Rossticus said:

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What Russia really wants is an "oooops" moment to kick this all off. They've got a giant assed dry tinderbox and all they need is a spark to get this mofo rolling. Putin would much prefer that to clearly giving the order to roll in. I think he keeps stacking assets and bides his time hoping someone's finger slips. Increased tensions play to his advantage.

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Can't remember if on this thread or another but I pegged the most advantageous invasion time from here until the end of the month based on weather and leverage via energy supplies to Europe being cut off providing leverage. I still think that's the case, but if it's not in this window they could draw back their forces a bit then push them back up to the line around mid March. Use that time for additional recon and analysis of response to this build up to plan their strike. I'd still not be saying sarcastic things on national TV and pissing off all your allies.

I heard somewhere that if Russia were to invade, they'd have to do it this month due to the spring thaw. Once the ice/snow begins to thaw, Russian tanks stand a strong risk of being mired.

LMCane said:

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GAC06 said:

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LMCane said:

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GAC06 said:

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We could have deterred Russia without doing much to expose Taiwan, especially if NATO was actually on board. Not much role for the army in Taiwan anyway.

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we could reestablish deterrence by bombing the hell out of the Iranian nuclear facilities'

but Biden and his team of idiots are too stupid

and would rather saber rattle with the two strongest countries on the planet

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How is Biden "saber rattling"? Russia has mobilized and deployed virtually their entire military, we sent a few planes of ammunition. China hasn't really changed anything IRT to Taiwan and neither have we.

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LOL?!

you mean the fact that Zelensky and the Ukrainians are every day telling the Americans IN PUBLIC to stop raising panic levels and the Russians blasting American hysteria and warmongering?!

that's not saber rattling?

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No. It's not.

GarryowenAg said:

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I heard somewhere that if Russia were to invade, they'd have to do it this month due to the spring thaw. Once the ice/snow begins to thaw, Russian tanks stand a strong risk of being mired.

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It's a real problem that's already causing stuck tanks

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-tanks-stuck-mud-ukraine/

Agthatbuilds said:

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GarryowenAg said:

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I heard somewhere that if Russia were to invade, they'd have to do it this month due to the spring thaw. Once the ice/snow begins to thaw, Russian tanks stand a strong risk of being mired.

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It's a real problem that's already causing stuck tanks

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-tanks-stuck-mud-ukraine/

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Global Warming to the rescue?

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.

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if the West ever actually confirms the Russkies are about to attack...

wouldn't it be the best decision for the Ukrainian air force and navy to launch preemptive attacks as much as they are able?

if they sit back and wait to get hit they will be annihilated before getting into the air or moving around- same with their artillery and tanks

it's almost better for them to kamikaze with as much mechanized force as possible to create as many Russian casualties and losses.

Maybe but only if your attack could cause enough damage and chaos to significantly disrupt and or cripple the planned attack. 100% unsure if the Ukrainians have enough theatre assets that could do it.

LMCane said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.

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if the West ever actually confirms the Russkies are about to attack...

wouldn't it be the best decision for the Ukrainian air force and navy to launch preemptive attacks as much as they are able?

if they sit back and wait to get hit they will be annihilated before getting into the air or moving around- same with their artillery and tanks

it's almost better for them to kamikaze with as much mechanized force as possible to create as many Russian casualties and losses.

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Or pressure Turkey to cut off the straits and strand the Russian navy in the Black Sea?

aggiehawg said:

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LMCane said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.

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if the West ever actually confirms the Russkies are about to attack...

wouldn't it be the best decision for the Ukrainian air force and navy to launch preemptive attacks as much as they are able?

if they sit back and wait to get hit they will be annihilated before getting into the air or moving around- same with their artillery and tanks

it's almost better for them to kamikaze with as much mechanized force as possible to create as many Russian casualties and losses.

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Or pressure Turkey to cut off the straits and strand the Russian navy in the Black Sea?

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This would be the place to start. But I really doubt Turkey wants to piss off Russia right now or at all given that Turkey has been looking into purchasing military equipment from Russia or developing systems with their help.

Understood but Turkey is a member of NATO and there is some leverage on that score if this thing goes hot.

I would not trust Turkey when it comes to Russia.
They have been very big military customers lately buying Russian missile systems. It has really upset Washington.

Edit - aezmvp beat me to it.

SCIENCE!

JayHowdy! said:

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I would not trust Turkey when it comes to Russia.
They have been very big military customers lately buying Russian missile systems. It has really upset Washington.

Edit - aezmvp beat me to it.

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I'm having a good day. Not an aggiehawg good day with a bazillion stars, but a good posting day for me!

ALERT 🚨 U.S. official says satelite images show Russia troops leaving assembly points and moving to attack positions - CBS

— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) February 14, 2022

*U.S. CITIZENS SHOULD DEPART BELARUS IMMEDIATELY: STATE DEPT

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 15, 2022

This could turn into a complete cluster F*&!, make Afghanistan look like a overblown frat party......

will25u said:

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*U.S. CITIZENS SHOULD DEPART BELARUS IMMEDIATELY: STATE DEPT

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 15, 2022

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Wouldn't surprise me if the Russians go earlier than planned, should they be able to. "Surprise" otherwise has been lost

Russia may attack on schedule and claim it was all part of our plan since we mentioned the date. They can just follow their script from their Georgia invasion: have separatists or their own forces launch artillery attacks from within the contested regions, then when Ukraine responds, launch the invasion under the pretense of protecting innocent separatists. Even if Ukraine doesn't respond (they may not based on how their president has been talking) claim they did and proceed.

But I thought commander in chief nimrod's admin "planned for all contingencies" and "is not surprised".....

Salute CornPops Message said:

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But I thought commander in chief nimrod's admin "planned for all contingencies" and "is not surprised".....

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He was talking about Joe's breakfast.

Franc-Tireur af https://t.co/LrekttmXtC

— David B. Larter (@DavidLarter) February 15, 2022

Some bad ass ladies.

rgag12 said:

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LMCane said:

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jabberwalkie09 said:

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Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.

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if the West ever actually confirms the Russkies are about to attack...

wouldn't it be the best decision for the Ukrainian air force and navy to launch preemptive attacks as much as they are able?

if they sit back and wait to get hit they will be annihilated before getting into the air or moving around- same with their artillery and tanks

it's almost better for them to kamikaze with as much mechanized force as possible to create as many Russian casualties and losses.

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So you'd validate pretty much what Putin said would happen, give them a legitimate excuse to invade, and you'd still get destroyed.

There's a reason why smaller countries don't do preemptive strikes and usually rely on diplomacy to deter conflict. I say usually because we all know what happened after Imperial Japan poked a bear

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Israel says hold my beer

June 5, 1967

Lol

Definitely directly comparable events.

From the State Department Twitter:

.@StateDeptSpox: We have taken the prudent steps of updating the Travel Advisory for Ukraine to urge U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine immediately using any available mode of transportation, and now, we are in the process of relocating our diplomatic staff from Kyiv to Lviv. pic.twitter.com/K5zx3GNTXK

— Department of State (@StateDept) February 14, 2022

aggiehawg said:

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Understood but Turkey is a member of NATO and there is some leverage on that score if this thing goes hot.

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What good exactly does a NATO member stranding a navy in the sea by a non NATO country they're attacking do?

This is the first I've read that they haven't just drafted legislation, but that the way will decide on whether to ask Putin to recognize the Donbas or Luhansk regions as independent. I'm out of my WSJ trial, so I can't directly read the entire article. Though I suspect this just a formality and we all know the answer. It's around 4 AM in Moscow right now.

Russia's parliament will vote on Tuesday to decide whether to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, the speaker of the Duma lower house said. https://t.co/Q5QPAlZWs4

— Vivian Salama (@vmsalama) February 15, 2022

CharlieBrown17 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Understood but Turkey is a member of NATO and there is some leverage on that score if this thing goes hot.

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What good exactly does a NATO member stranding a navy in the sea by a non NATO country they're attacking do?

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Think sitting ducks on a pond with supply lines cut.

You know, actual military tactics.

aggiehawg said:

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CharlieBrown17 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Understood but Turkey is a member of NATO and there is some leverage on that score if this thing goes hot.

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What good exactly does a NATO member stranding a navy in the sea by a non NATO country they're attacking do?

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Think sitting ducks on a pond with supply lines cut.

You know, actual military tactics.

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You miss where Russia annexed Crimea and headquartered their regional navy there or was that not actual military tactics?

Stranded, yes. Russia has ports on the Black Sea so not really cut off from supply.

And the US has been and will continue to be a huge supporter of rights to transit international straits.

Blocking the Russian navy in the Black Sea by a NATO state in support of a non NATO nation is actually the provocation that Russia has been claiming as a reason for the military build up.

Anybody remember him?

Is that Yamamoto?