Yeah the quote isn't wrong and China will be watching but again, I don't think it changes their long term plan.

Unfortunately I'd love to talk China more but at this point I couldn't tell you what I remember from open source or other sources so I'll keep with my above statement.

K2-HMFIC said:

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CharlieBrown17 said:

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China will be watching obviously, but long term China is going to do what they want about Taiwan regardless of what happens in this conflict/non conflict.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-11/u-s-sees-china-watching-ukraine-showdown-as-a-proxy-for-taiwan

Quote:

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The American officials said they believe Xi's government is studying the cohesion of the NATO alliance as it seeks to push back on Russian President Vladimir Putin's massing of forces near Ukraine's border. Although Putin has said he has no intention of invading Ukraine, the standoff has emerged as the biggest crisis to face the North Atlantic Treaty Organization since the Balkans conflict in the 1990s.

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They need to bear in mind though that the South Koreans and Japanese and Indians appear to be much firmer on this respect. I don't think you have the equivalent of Germany having a pipeline dependency on Russia, with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India -- having some major dependency on China where they have to let it do what it wants.

K2-HMFIC said:

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CharlieBrown17 said:

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Quote:

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Should we not be deploying US forces to reassure NATO Allies like Poland?

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Interjecting just to do so but imo this is all we should do from a military perspective. If the rest of Europe wants to nut up and check Russia they can but at the end of the day we shouldn't get involved across the globe when the countries in the EU aren't willing to lead the conflict.

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I agree…economic sanctions for sure…but no more beyond that. We need to keep our powder dry for China.

Mainly because we need to kill the chicken to scare the monkeys as it relates to China/Taiwan.

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Wait a minute then. We have no disconnect at all if you are going that far as the italics. I am willing for the response to deter Ukraine to be stronger than that IF Germany and France agree. It again depends on their willingness to suffer some deprivation (it would fall to us to try to supply them hastily for anything being cut off).

There shouldn't even be questions of sanctions at this point. This has none of the gray even of Crimea. This is naked aggressive intimidation on Putin's part of Ukraine and not in response to any invitation of any kind.

Titan,

I honestly don't think we're that far off…I think we should reinforce NATO Allies, I think massive sanctions should be applied ONCE they cross the border (doing that ante bellum is asinine), and I think the Euro's need to step up.

I think Biden himself complicated messaging, but the admin has done a pretty decent job of deterring to the degree it could.

Let's be honest, Ukraine matters way more to Putin than it does to us. At some point we can only do so much.

K2-HMFIC said:

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Titan,

I honestly don't think we're that far off…I think we should reinforce NATO Allies, I think massive sanctions should be applied ONCE they cross the border (doing that ante bellum is asinine), and I think the Euro's need to step up.

I think Biden himself complicated messaging, but the admin has done a pretty decent job of deterring to the degree it could.

Let's be honest, Ukraine matters way more to Putin than it does to us. At some point we can only do so much.

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Agree on all counts. And especially, yes, sanctions not ante bellum. That would only encourage escalation because it would "well lets see how it turns out, may as well". I still think a very strong statement by Germany (and the willingness to demonstrate it) might yet have some force.

That business about Putin's yacht is a bit worrisome -- I already said why I think it does clue that Putin knows what he is going do (whatever that `do' is) is going to tick off Germany and he doesn't want it impounded.

titan said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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CharlieBrown17 said:

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Quote:

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Should we not be deploying US forces to reassure NATO Allies like Poland?

---

Interjecting just to do so but imo this is all we should do from a military perspective. If the rest of Europe wants to nut up and check Russia they can but at the end of the day we shouldn't get involved across the globe when the countries in the EU aren't willing to lead the conflict.

---

I agree…economic sanctions for sure…but no more beyond that. We need to keep our powder dry for China.

Mainly because we need to kill the chicken to scare the monkeys as it relates to China/Taiwan.

---

Wait a minute then. We have no disconnect at all if you are going that far as the italics. I am willing for the response to deter Ukraine to be stronger than that IF Germany and France agree. It again depends on their willingness to suffer some deprivation (it would fall to us to try to supply them hastily for anything being cut off).

There shouldn't even be questions of sanctions at this point. This has none of the gray even of Crimea. This is naked aggressive intimidation on Putin's part of Ukraine and not in response to any invitation of any kind.

---

I agree. My main argument was the point on culpability…I think that felt loaded.

…and who says people can't find common ground on F16?!?!

Right on cue, #Russia's state media is already spreading outrageously false claims and fake "warnings," aided by pro-Kremlin operatives in #Ukraine.https://t.co/P7BptmrmY6 pic.twitter.com/jvGIx2UF0c

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) February 13, 2022

Right on cue

Here is an attempt to create an illustrative map on where we have Army level concentrations, currently in the process of moving to jump-off positions near the border.

This is my personal assessment as of 1200z today, February 13th. pic.twitter.com/88o0OMgixy

— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) February 13, 2022

CBS News has learned that the Biden administration is preparing to withdraw all U.S. personnel from Kyiv within the next 24-48 hours.

Matches the flight activity we have seen.

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 13, 2022

Some pretty significant tanker support headed out to refuel the B-52s https://t.co/y6x2F9Ax12 pic.twitter.com/264VPIXV2X

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 14, 2022

https://www.flightradar24.com/CHIEF11/2acfb49d

Good thread of tweets going back to Jan 30 - Will do multiple edits to try to get all of the satellite photos in.

Outstanding resolution showing the BTG to the north of the new camp. (imagery: @capellaspace) pic.twitter.com/6nA7G6qwBp

— Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) February 6, 2022

Novoozerne on 10FEB2022. (Imagery @planet) pic.twitter.com/uzi48p1Ysj

— Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) February 12, 2022

The S-400 bn is now operationally deployed with missile canisters loaded. Two TELs were on alert at the time of capture. pic.twitter.com/5844ZWRJ7a

— Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) February 13, 2022

Welcome to the 'count-the-blob' game. @planet's Planetscope imagery acquired on 13FEB2022. https://t.co/tiRWvsNBk6 pic.twitter.com/PQpQPkgG2z

— Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) February 13, 2022

This is what happens when you don't sleep. One last time with a picture insert. pic.twitter.com/F5Yz5ybSAW

— Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) February 13, 2022

TChaney said:

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CBS News has learned that the Biden administration is preparing to withdraw all U.S. personnel from Kyiv within the next 24-48 hours.

Matches the flight activity we have seen.

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 13, 2022

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**** like this annoys me. Very little has changed about our posture from the last month. Nothing has changed from the last two weeks to today.

The Buffs are the only real change and a few B-52s in a high end fight don't mean jack.

Quote:

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"We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack. We will make it Unity Day. I have already signed the corresponding decree. On this day, we will hang national flags, put on blue and yellow ribbons and show the whole world our unity," he said in a video message to the people of Ukraine, which was published on Monday evening.

According to the head of state, Ukraine faced serious external and internal challenges that require responsibility, confidence and concrete actions from him and each of the Ukrainians.

"We are frightened by a big war and once again set the date of the military invasion. This is not the first time. We systematically wage war with us on all fronts. On the military - increase the contingent around the borders. On the diplomatic front, they are trying to deprive us of the right to determine our foreign policy course on our own. On the energy - limit the supply of gas, electricity and coal. On the information front, they strive to sow panic among citizens and investors through the media," he said.

"We clearly know where someone else's army, its number, its locations, its equipment and its plans are near our borders. We have something to oppose. We have a wonderful army. Our guys have unique combat experience and modern weapons. This is already many times stronger than 8 years ago," the president added, stressing that Ukraine "has managed to achieve diplomatic support from almost all leaders of the civilized world."

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More at the link below,my phone has an option for translation.

https://ru.interfax.com.ua/news/general/798337.html

I'm wondering if it's a bit of lost in translation. Aren't we the ones we put out the 16th? The way he's saying it could just be acknowledging what we've put out there without verifying it's accurate

JobSecurity said:

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I'm wondering if it's a bit of lost in translation. Aren't we the ones we put out the 16th? The way he's saying it could just be acknowledging what we've put out there without verifying it's accurate

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AFAIK yes.

Meanwhile, Russian state media has started a propaganda push (Daily Mail link)) and the Gosduma is considering recognizing the Luhansk and Donbas regions.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10510145/Russian-state-media-begins-propaganda-push-amid-fears-Ukraine-invasion-imminent.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-draft-resolution-east-ukraine-regions-seeks-foreign-ministry-view-2022-02-14/

Per CNN: US to close Kyiv embassy, relocate remaining personnel to Lviv.

Per CBSNews:

BREAKING: Russian units near Ukraine moved into "attack positions," official says https://t.co/zFLOXZAmwR

— CBS News (@CBSNews) February 14, 2022

Quote:

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Russia has moved some long-range artillery and rocket launchers into firing position, threatening Ukraine, according to a U.S. official.

Some Russian units have left their assembly areas the bumper-to-bumper formations seen in satellite photos and are beginning to move into "attack positions," according to the official. This movement marks a change since Sunday, when some of the units had left the assembly areas but had not yet taken what could be viewed as attack positions.

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Get ready.

ZELENSKY: "We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack...14 thousand defenders and civilians who died in this war are watching us from the sky. And we will not betray their memory."

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) February 14, 2022

Quote:

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According to German newspaper Der Spiegel, the US Secret Service, CIA and the Pentagon are said to have received intel of an "exceptionally detailed" invasion plan, scheduled for February 16.

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https://www.deccanherald.com/international/russia-set-to-invade-ukraine-on-february-16-report-1080771.html

It's our letter agencies that told him this date. Still not buying it. If you had details of their planned attack this is something that you would want to keep quiet about so you could use it against them. Going public with this is one of the dumber things this administration has done.

will25u said:

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Get ready.

ZELENSKY: "We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack...14 thousand defenders and civilians who died in this war are watching us from the sky. And we will not betray their memory."

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) February 14, 2022

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Zelenskiy Sarcasm Over Attack Date Moves Markets: Ukraine Update

via Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/eCFPkGDChA

— Christian Fromhertz (@cfromhertz) February 14, 2022

If Putin wanted to go mole hunting, can't beat this.

Russia is not afraid of Ukraine. Ukraine's military is a token force compared to what Russia has built up on the border.

Not to mention Russia will have air superiority pretty quickly.

FriscoKid said:

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Quote:

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According to German newspaper Der Spiegel, the US Secret Service, CIA and the Pentagon are said to have received intel of an "exceptionally detailed" invasion plan, scheduled for February 16.

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https://www.deccanherald.com/international/russia-set-to-invade-ukraine-on-february-16-report-1080771.html

It's our letter agencies that told him this date. Still not buying it. If you had details of their planned attack this is something that you would want to keep quiet about so you could use it against them. Going public with this is one of the dumber things this administration has done.

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Well going public with it creates a lot of international pressure on Putin, if he goes through with things on or around that date, he loses a few marginal positions. I doubt that anything we have have said or done up to this point has given him much cause for concern or dissuaded him.

I think the real tip off for me is that he moved the Chechnyian National Guard units in. They've pulled units from All their major military districts but most of their Guard units have been relatively close by and they're generally tasked as secondary troops. Guarding flanks, acting as MP, doing counterinsurgency and POW activities, that sort of thing. Those Chechnyian units are basically the autonomous army over there. You absolutely don't mobilize those guys for nothing. That strikes me as very, very odd if this is one big bluff.

LOL

supposedly Zelensky in his speech tonight was joking about the Russian invasion on the 16th

but the Algos only heard invasion so the entire Stock Market just sold off down 1% in all markets

you can't make this up!

LMCane said:

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LOL

supposedly Zelensky in his speech tonight was joking about the Russian invasion on the 16th

but the Algos only heard invasion so the entire Stock Market just sold off down 1% in all markets

you can't make this up!

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Google translate is not our friend? If the Russians do go, he's going to look spectacularly bad.

aezmvp said:

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FriscoKid said:

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Quote:

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According to German newspaper Der Spiegel, the US Secret Service, CIA and the Pentagon are said to have received intel of an "exceptionally detailed" invasion plan, scheduled for February 16.

---

https://www.deccanherald.com/international/russia-set-to-invade-ukraine-on-february-16-report-1080771.html

It's our letter agencies that told him this date. Still not buying it. If you had details of their planned attack this is something that you would want to keep quiet about so you could use it against them. Going public with this is one of the dumber things this administration has done.

---

Well going public with it creates a lot of international pressure on Putin, if he goes through with things on or around that date, he loses a few marginal positions. I doubt that anything we have have said or done up to this point has given him much cause for concern or dissuaded him.

I think the real tip off for me is that he moved the Chechnyian National Guard units in. They've pulled units from All their major military districts but most of their Guard units have been relatively close by and they're generally tasked as secondary troops. Guarding flanks, acting as MP, doing counterinsurgency and POW activities, that sort of thing. Those Chechnyian units are basically the autonomous army over there. You absolutely don't mobilize those guys for nothing. That strikes me as very, very odd if this is one big bluff.

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so the Secret Service which investigates counterfeit money and protects the POTUS is now in the military intelligence business?!?

who is stupid enough to believe this @#$#$

aezmvp said:

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LMCane said:

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LOL

supposedly Zelensky in his speech tonight was joking about the Russian invasion on the 16th

but the Algos only heard invasion so the entire Stock Market just sold off down 1% in all markets

you can't make this up!

---

Google translate is not our friend? If the Russians do go, he's going to look spectacularly bad.

---

could be Zelensky is trying to stop the exfiltration of all the money in Ukraine and stop panic buying and run on banks

or, the honest truth could be Biden and his cronies are pumping up the situation so they look tough in standing down Putin

LMCane said:

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LOL

supposedly Zelensky in his speech tonight was joking about the Russian invasion on the 16th

but the Algos only heard invasion so the entire Stock Market just sold off down 1% in all markets

you can't make this up!

---

The DOW was down 1% not long after the opening bell today, well before the speech.

It is actually doing a little better right now.

FriscoKid said:

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Quote:

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According to German newspaper Der Spiegel, the US Secret Service, CIA and the Pentagon are said to have received intel of an "exceptionally detailed" invasion plan, scheduled for February 16.

---

https://www.deccanherald.com/international/russia-set-to-invade-ukraine-on-february-16-report-1080771.html

It's our letter agencies that told him this date. Still not buying it. If you had details of their planned attack this is something that you would want to keep quiet about so you could use it against them. Going public with this is one of the dumber things this administration has done.

---

Unless you're hoping to use publicity as deterrent/delay.

Rapier108 said:

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LMCane said:

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LOL

supposedly Zelensky in his speech tonight was joking about the Russian invasion on the 16th

but the Algos only heard invasion so the entire Stock Market just sold off down 1% in all markets

you can't make this up!

---

The DOW was down 1% not long after the opening bell today, well before the speech.

It is actually doing a little better right now.

---

The algos sold the Nasdaq down to about 1%. Tech is the first thing that algos sell on headlines. It's bounced back

BREAKING: Office of Ukraine's president says his statement that Wednesday will be 'day of attack' was said with irony

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) February 14, 2022

GAC06 said:

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LMCane said:

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GAC06 said:

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We could have deterred Russia without doing much to expose Taiwan, especially if NATO was actually on board. Not much role for the army in Taiwan anyway.

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we could reestablish deterrence by bombing the hell out of the Iranian nuclear facilities'

but Biden and his team of idiots are too stupid

and would rather saber rattle with the two strongest countries on the planet

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How is Biden "saber rattling"? Russia has mobilized and deployed virtually their entire military, we sent a few planes of ammunition. China hasn't really changed anything IRT to Taiwan and neither have we.

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LOL?!

you mean the fact that Zelensky and the Ukrainians are every day telling the Americans IN PUBLIC to stop raising panic levels and the Russians blasting American hysteria and warmongering?!

that's not saber rattling?

will25u said:

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BREAKING: Office of Ukraine's president says his statement that Wednesday will be 'day of attack' was said with irony

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) February 14, 2022

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He's mocking Brandon.

Nasdaq dropped 360 points after Zelenskys speech but is bouncing back

The rest of the world leaders. God this country has hit rock bottom and its not over yet.

Don't forget that the forces in the area include an additional Kilo class sub bringing the total in the area to 6 and one Slava Class cruiser (Moskva) in the Black Sea and another (Marshal Ustinov) planning to transit the Bosporus Straits leaving the remaining Slava Cruiser in the Mediterranean. The Varyag is off the coast of Syria.