TriAg2010 said:
I don't think Russia would try to invade and occupy clear across Ukraine and into Kiev. That's an occupational effort I don't think they are equipped to sustain. They would view it as minimally successful to hold the "easy" territory gains in eastern Ukraine, decapitate the current Ukrainian leadership, force Germany into submitting on NS2, and fracture NATO resolve. If they got regime change in Kiev, I think they would view that as icing on the cake.
ETA - I think recent NATO commitments to Ukraine are exceeding expectations. I think the alliance will prove more resilient and effective than Russia may have thought going into this build up. Hopefully it can still deter an attack in the first place.
While possible that he would limit the action to just Eastern Ukraine, there's not much for him/Russia to gain from that. Additionally, the dispersion of forces seem to suggest a pincer type of run on Kyiv if they do make a move imo. If you want regime change, going to the seat of power seems to be the fastest way to get that imo.
If they can install a Russian friendly regime in Ukraine, then they end the fighting in eastern Ukraine, essentially end Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO, and effectively control the majority of the northern coast of the Black Sea.
We have had force posturing for the last few days by NATO members as a deference. I'm not sure that Putin cares much about these troop movements.