Ag In Ok said:

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I am of the belief a regime change is what Biden wants.

Though i am conflicted, i don't think Russia has enough to overthrow the current government. I don't think they have enough to fight a counterinsurgency.

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Putin is going to want to get into the archives

and find all the dirty deals that the Biden's have been doing with Ukraine over the last decade

TriAg2010 said:

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My armchair expectation of Russia's strategy would be:

- Invasion of eastern Ukrainian districts under the guise of protecting ethnic Russian peoples
- Assassinations and targeted attacks at Ukraine's political heads and command/control
- Destruction of Ukraine's gas transmission infrastructure

I don't think Russia would try to invade and occupy clear across Ukraine and into Kiev. That's an occupational effort I don't think they are equipped to sustain. They would view it as minimally successful to hold the "easy" territory gains in eastern Ukraine, decapitate the current Ukrainian leadership, force Germany into submitting on NS2, and fracture NATO resolve. If they got regime change in Kiev, I think they would view that as icing on the cake.

ETA - I think recent NATO commitments to Ukraine are exceeding expectations. I think the alliance will prove more resilient and effective than Russia may have thought going into this build up. Hopefully it can still deter an attack in the first place.

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I disagree with this.

At this point, what does Putin have to gain from a limited takeover over a few miles of swamp?

Is that a good trade for massive sanctions and world condemnation?

I think IF he goes in, he heads to Kyiv to drive out Zelensky and install his own crony loyal to the Kremlin. Then pulls back his troops once the crony takes over control of the armed forces.

TriAg2010 said:

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I don't think Russia would try to invade and occupy clear across Ukraine and into Kiev. That's an occupational effort I don't think they are equipped to sustain. They would view it as minimally successful to hold the "easy" territory gains in eastern Ukraine, decapitate the current Ukrainian leadership, force Germany into submitting on NS2, and fracture NATO resolve. If they got regime change in Kiev, I think they would view that as icing on the cake.

ETA - I think recent NATO commitments to Ukraine are exceeding expectations. I think the alliance will prove more resilient and effective than Russia may have thought going into this build up. Hopefully it can still deter an attack in the first place.

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While possible that he would limit the action to just Eastern Ukraine, there's not much for him/Russia to gain from that. Additionally, the dispersion of forces seem to suggest a pincer type of run on Kyiv if they do make a move imo. If you want regime change, going to the seat of power seems to be the fastest way to get that imo.

If they can install a Russian friendly regime in Ukraine, then they end the fighting in eastern Ukraine, essentially end Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO, and effectively control the majority of the northern coast of the Black Sea.

We have had force posturing for the last few days by NATO members as a deference. I'm not sure that Putin cares much about these troop movements.

LMCane said:

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watching the "National Security Advisor" at this woeful press conference.

spends more time trying to win political points bashing the Iraq war than defending what the hell they are doing. all he can say is "the Russians have 100,000 troops!!!"

Uh yeah, IT'S THEIR COUNTRY!!

what the hell is the USA plan here anyway?

basically just report to us Putin's move like a faster CNN?

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How is that relevant right now? WTF?

This portion of Seinfeld is more in tune with Ukraine than our current administration.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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While possible that he would limit the action to just Eastern Ukraine, there's not much for him/Russia to gain from that. Additionally, the dispersion of forces seem to suggest a pincer type of run on Kyiv if they do make a move imo. If you want regime change, going to the seat of power seems to be the fastest way to get that imo.

If they can install a Russian friendly regime in Ukraine, then they end the fighting in eastern Ukraine, essentially end Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO, and effectively control the majority of the northern coast of the Black Sea.

We have had force posturing for the last few days by NATO members as a deference. I'm not sure that Putin cares much about these troop movements.

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I think this is correct. You don't pre-position those troops in Belarus if you're not trying to skip past the Dnieper and get in behind Kyiv. There are less than 20 major bridges across the river. That means you can isolate the river pretty quickly, from either side. Lots of strategic possibilities there. Cut off all forces in the East and then try and blitz the capital. I'd be looking at shifting C&C right now. I think the initial mobilization and delay was not just for diplomacy but also to identify C&C elements within the Ukraine to be targeted.

Over under this goes down during the Super Bowl? Lots of eyes on the screen.

https://twitter.com/Kiehart?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Quote:

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Just got a call from a person reading from a script reiterating the directive for Americans to leave Ukraine and asking whether I'd departed yet.

I told them I was staying as a journalist.

"Well, be safe," the caller responded.

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Pretty obvious at this point the administration wants a war. I'll leave the reasoning up to your own interpretation.

I predicted international conflict within Bidens term. Even I thought it wouldn't come till year two at a minimum though. This thing can literally kick off at any time at this point and we have a hand in helping it along. Perception is reality and we are treating this like a done deal already, needlessly.

supposedly now Biden talking with Putin tomorrow

I am sure that will go well

why is Biden wasting his time if "Putin has already decided to invade"?!

or is the deep state full of cr@p and trying to look tough and bait the Russians?

Not shocked at all of the timing, lots of other things going on in the world that can be used as distractions and you will have a lot of eyes on the TV (whose ratings are in the tank).

The USA allowed this to happen by Bill Clinton removing Ukraine's nuclear weapons and by Biden removing sanctions on the Nord Stream 2. NATO and Ukraine have nothing to negotiate with now so Russia can do what it wants. Russia has to do a land grab to survive the rest of this century

Also remember war is good at making people money. The USA has a lost a lot of equipment sales to China and Russia lately, Ukraine and other NATO countries will have to buy US weapon systems now

Maybe these reports are just to make it look like invasion is imminent? Then big, bad, Joe gets to "stand up to Putin and back him down". Just like he did to corn pop.

Eliminatus said:

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Pretty obvious at this point the administration wants a war. I'll leave the reasoning up to your own interpretation.

I predicted international conflict within Bidens term. Even I thought it wouldn't come till year two at a minimum though. This thing can literally kick off at any time at this point and we have a hand in helping it along. Perception is reality and we are treating this like a done deal already, needlessly.

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I agree. The Kremlin/Putin/Russia has sunk a significant amount of money and time moving around assets to and around the area. Putin and Xi met in Beijing over a week ago disapproving of our mutual allies/defense alliances in their respective regions. Us and our NATO allies have been reactionary this entire time.

Putin/Russia has played the long game here. They're poised to either do what we all expect or just generally wreck the Ukrainian economy to force submission.

jjtrcka22 said:

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Maybe these reports are just to make it look like invasion is imminent? Then big, bad, Joe gets to "stand up to Putin and back him down". Just like he did to corn pop.

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I think that's what Jake Sullivan would like us to all believe. However, I think Putin would probably call that bluff if the administration tries to play that hand. Just my opinion though.

jabberwalkie09 said:

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jjtrcka22 said:

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Maybe these reports are just to make it look like invasion is imminent? Then big, bad, Joe gets to "stand up to Putin and back him down". Just like he did to corn pop.

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I think that's what Jake Sullivan would like us to all believe. However, I think Putin would probably call that bluff if the administration tries to play that hand. Just my opinion though.

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Because at the end of the day, that is all it is, a bluff.

The badly botched withdrawal from Afghanistan showed that.

We have nothing to negotiate with, heck half of Europe will get their oil from Russia with the Nord Stream 2 getting close. You think those NATO countries are going to decline cheap oil and gas? We know what politicians do if money is involved.

Putin is playing world leaders like a fiddle. It is actually hilarious.

The question is, when putin gets what he wants out of Ukraine, where does he go next? Finland? Estonia? And so on.

Has anyone checked in on Taiwan lately?

LMCane said:

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TriAg2010 said:

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My armchair expectation of Russia's strategy would be:

- Invasion of eastern Ukrainian districts under the guise of protecting ethnic Russian peoples
- Assassinations and targeted attacks at Ukraine's political heads and command/control
- Destruction of Ukraine's gas transmission infrastructure

I don't think Russia would try to invade and occupy clear across Ukraine and into Kiev. That's an occupational effort I don't think they are equipped to sustain. They would view it as minimally successful to hold the "easy" territory gains in eastern Ukraine, decapitate the current Ukrainian leadership, force Germany into submitting on NS2, and fracture NATO resolve. If they got regime change in Kiev, I think they would view that as icing on the cake.

ETA - I think recent NATO commitments to Ukraine are exceeding expectations. I think the alliance will prove more resilient and effective than Russia may have thought going into this build up. Hopefully it can still deter an attack in the first place.

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I disagree with this.

At this point, what does Putin have to gain from a limited takeover over a few miles of swamp?

Is that a good trade for massive sanctions and world condemnation?

I think IF he goes in, he heads to Kyiv to drive out Zelensky and install his own crony loyal to the Kremlin. Then pulls back his troops once the crony takes over control of the armed forces.

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I'm pretty open-minded to all arguments and you make good points. My premise is that Russia can achieve a lot of its objectives without invading an urban area or large swathes of western Ukraine, so why would they? Russia's experience in Chechnya was pretty disastrous and that was against a foe that wasn't broadly sympathetic or supported by the west.

RQ-4a Global Hawk flying over Kiev right now

Dan Scott said:

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RQ-4a Global Hawk flying over Kiev right now

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Can I get a translation on that transmission? American CIA I presume?

ETA: Can carry Hellfires?

fixer said:

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Putin is playing world leaders like a fiddle. It is actually hilarious.

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Several weeks ago I watched an exchange between Biden and Putin. Biden kicked things off by babbling a nonsensical stream of pleasantries, and the reaction from Putin was very telling. An almost imperceptible shrug of the shoulders and eye roll. Biden is a corrupt, senile, cowardly buffoon playing a tough guy. Putin is stone cold, strategic, and ruthless. A weak leader like Biden is not going to talk Putin out of anything he sees as being in his long term interests.

aggiehawg said:

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Dan Scott said:

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RQ-4a Global Hawk flying over Kiev right now

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Can I get a translation on that transmission? American CIA I presume?

ETA: Can carry Hellfires?

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Reconnaissance drone. The MQ-9 is the gun platform iirc. The tracker says this is a USAF drone.

Thanks for the clarification.

They can loiter over an area for hours and hours, correct?

Agthatbuilds said:

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The question is, when putin gets what he wants out of Ukraine, where does he go next? Finland? Estonia? And so on.

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First likely to officially annex Belarus (it is already a Russian client state) and then go after the rest of Georgia.

He'll have to decide whether or not the 'Stans are worth the trouble.

His goal is not to recreate the Soviet Union. It is to recreate the Russian Empire.

aggiehawg said:

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Thanks for the clarification.

They can loiter over an area for hours and hours, correct?

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Yes

aggiehawg said:

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Thanks for the clarification.

They can loiter over an area for hours and hours, correct?

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Yes, they're supposed to have ridiculous loiter and range time.

Rapier108 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Thanks for the clarification.

They can loiter over an area for hours and hours, correct?

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Yes

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The Hubs was in the AF so I know some things from him and then what I know from research but it isn't like I read Jane's everyday, or at all.

Maybe the fact that I even knew about Jane's before a Jack Ryan movie. (Okay, yes read Clancy books but knew about that source before then. Ask me how.)

I have no idea if this is real or not but somehow it wouldn't surprise me if it is.

Actual CNN headline pic.twitter.com/FEsZH3rz5p

— Honkmaster Poso 🎺 (@JackPosobiec) February 11, 2022

LMCane said:

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Ag In Ok said:

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I am of the belief a regime change is what Biden wants.

Though i am conflicted, i don't think Russia has enough to overthrow the current government. I don't think they have enough to fight a counterinsurgency.

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Putin is going to want to get into the archives

and find all the dirty deals that the Biden's have been doing with Ukraine over the last decade

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What if the archives were somehow damaged in the invasion?

Regardless a land invasion to expose the Bidens' dirty deals over the last decade in Ukraine is obviously Putin's endgame here. If I'm Zelenskyy I just offer Putin unlimited time in the archives.

Quote:

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WASHINGTON (AP) The United States is set to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv as Western intelligence officials warn that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is increasingly imminent.

U.S. officials say the State Department plans to announce early Saturday that all American staff at the Kyiv embassy will be required to leave the country ahead of a feared Russian invasion. The State Department would not comment.

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-states-europe-russia-kyiv-ff41abf90650aa5f456cbb6aafa4c5b3

jabberwalkie09 said:

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Quote:

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WASHINGTON (AP) The United States is set to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv as Western intelligence officials warn that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is increasingly imminent.

U.S. officials say the State Department plans to announce early Saturday that all American staff at the Kyiv embassy will be required to leave the country ahead of a feared Russian invasion. The State Department would not comment.

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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-states-europe-russia-kyiv-ff41abf90650aa5f456cbb6aafa4c5b3

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Yeah, it's happening. All but done now