No matter where your views sit on the opinion scale, this is a sad time for the Afghan people, and I don't believe anyone can honestly say this is going to be a change for the better.
From my perspective, the OP's comments do a good job of capturing many of the salient points noted by those of us who actually served boots on the ground in that part of the world. I fully understand and respect the differing views of this very complex situation and all of the contributing factors that have brought us to this point. There definitely is not a one-size-fits-all solution here.
For perspective, I served two tours in Iraq (2003, Tallil Air Base, at the outset of Gulf War II, 2009-10 as an Air Advisor to the Iraqi AF/A7 and Iraqi Air Force Academy Commandant in Baghdad for a 365), and one in Afghanistan (2011-2012, Camp Eggers, Kabul, Afghan Senior Leader Protection initiative, working to mitigate assassinations while advising the MOI Counter-terrorism director and Afghan National Police Academy commander).
There are common threads to both conflicts and the nations in question, along with vast differences. The Iraqi people, as a whole, are significantly more educated, previously had a large standing military presence (including a fairly robust air force) that included some modern hardware along with a lot of older equipment , and had a decent infrastructure. It also had oil for income. The country operated under a dictatorship, to be sure, but as a whole functioned.
Afghanistan, on the other hand, is much less educated as a whole, had minimal military capability and the training to go with it, and the infrastructure outside of Kabul was decades behind on the whole. It has huge natural resources, but the infrastructure to get to it all and move it does not exist and is highly vulnerable to attack by any and and all. There is no steady source of income, other than perhaps drugs. You also still see oxen-pulled carts with solid wooden wheels rolling down the streets of Kabul as a normal conveyance...
Regardless of the starting points, my time with the people of both nations drove home these points for me:
- The US, and a select handful of other nations, truly tried hard to help each nation. Cultural differences to problem-solving definitely made the work challenging, but literally hundreds of thousands of men and women have worked extremely hard the last 20 years to make things better. It is very sad to see much, if not all of that work thrown away or destroyed.
- This area of the world has been fighting literally since the dawn of man. Until all the regional nations can somehow work out their differences and establish lasting peace, it is unlikely that any outside influence will make a lasting difference.
- There are so many competing nations and strategies at work in the region it makes your head explode. US, China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Europe--you name it. Proxy wars and long-term moves on the geopolitical chess board often have left much damage in their wake despite often well-meaning beginnings. Others have solely focused on draining the other guy's national treasure and keeping his attention split while making major moves elsewhere. Looking at you, China and Russia...
- The younger generations are excited for the future and wanted to embrace ideas and technology that can bring their countries into the present, but are routinely held back by the cultural (and tribal) norms of age/legacy over drive/ability/performance. I think the most concrete example I saw of this was the internal Iraqi government fight over who would be in the first cadre of pilots to travel to the United States to learn how to fly their newly-ordered F-16s. It takes years to train a pilot to more than basic capability and the younger pilots who were learning to fly at pilot training in the US had excellent English skills, were eager to learn, embraced and adapted to modern technology, and picked up on concepts significantly faster than the legacy, Soviet-trained pilots from the Saddam era when they flew aircraft several generations older. At first there was a complete unwillingness to send any young pilots, but eventually, with a lot of US coaxing, the first group was a mix of young and old. It was very entertaining, but also incredibly frustrating as the months drug on without a decision...
- Corruption is a cultural norm. To get anything done of significance it was always, "You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours." That was incredibly frustrating on so many levels, but it is a reality for the majority of the developing world. Without law and order and some code of ethics to establish as a baseline and work from it will continue to be this way and whomever is in power at the moment will always be squirreling away funds in foreign banks and buying houses in other nations to go to when it all comes down around them. Change takes sincere leadership, a vision for the nation, and the support for that leadership by the people. Tough to find anyone like that, right, Ghani?
- We operate by the rule of law. They don't. When the bad guys don't follow rules and it's an anything goes affair, the good guys are at a disadvantage right out the gate. Afghanistan is the Wild Wild West outside of Kabul. Yes, there have been occasional slip-ups with terrible consequences in past conflicts, but as a whole the US operates within rules and that should not change. The Taliban and their ilk do not. It will be interesting to see how China operates when it gets its shot...
- The majority of the people are decent and just want safety and stability for their families. As we are seeing played out live once again, it is the masses who pay the price in such conflicts. I particularly feel for the women and children. There is a whole generation of women who grew up in Afghanistan out from under the Taliban after the invasion. It is going to be terrible for them. There is no doubt that some of those trapped in Afghanistan and who actually survive the Taliban takeover will be converted to the cause and taught to hate the infidels who until recently were trying to help their country stand on its own two feet.
- There is no simple solution. We all have our opinions on different aspects of how Afghanistan and other conflicts have been handled, but the truth is the answers are extremely complex and intertwined. This is exactly why places such as Afghanistan have seen the Mongols, Sikhs, British, Soviets, US/NATO, and others come and go. All they have to do is just wait us out...
What a mess.
