Consolidated Fall of Kabul Update Thread

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TChaney
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10:48a, 8/18/21
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cbr
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 10:51a, 8/18/21
AG
ABATTBQ11 said:
Posted on the gun control thread, but I'll repost here anyway.



Funny how Joe says we need F-15's and nukes to take on the government, and yet he just lost a country and got humiliated by guys in shower shoes with AK's.
lol, the people running joe dont intend to limit the budget or ROE against americans, or let them use facebook, twitter, whatsapp to organize.

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TChaney
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10:52a, 8/18/21
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Seabreeze
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In reply to TChaney • 10:55a, 8/18/21
Fresh off the printer..
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JobSecurity
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10:55a, 8/18/21
AG
Is the quick summary of the current situation that US/allied military have control inside the airport and are facilitating evac but everything outside the fence is Taliban or uncontrolled?

It seems based on the # of flights the runway is at least secured and the scenes from the last few days of thousands of civilians running around are done?
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TChaney
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10:55a, 8/18/21
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TxAgLaw03RW
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In reply to cbr • 10:56a, 8/18/21
AG
I'd also add the guys in robes and shower shoes defeated the F-15's with US-supplied arms and probably a bunch of 30 rounds magazines, which us citizens shouldn't be allowed to own ourselves.
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TChaney
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10:57a, 8/18/21


Adding this just for the photo.
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deddog
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In reply to TChaney • 10:59a, 8/18/21
AG
TChaney said:
I bet they were wearing MAGA hats too
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TChaney
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11:01a, 8/18/21


Jalalabad farther East of Kabul
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TChaney
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11:02a, 8/18/21
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will25u
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In reply to TChaney • 11:03a, 8/18/21
TChaney said:


Adding this just for the photo.
Being on a picket line is not fun. I doubt there are many rotations of soldiers either.

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Agvet12
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In reply to will25u • 11:04a, 8/18/21
AG
will25u said:
TChaney said:


Adding this just for the photo.
Being on a picket line is not fun. I doubt there are many rotations of soldiers either.


Yep no bueno. And with the chaos that sleep rotation in / out of mraps sucks ass
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TChaney
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11:05a, 8/18/21




Translation
He is afraid of being beheaded. Nizamuddin Qaisari, a former militia commander, is captured by the Taliban in Bamyan province.
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will25u
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In reply to TChaney • 11:07a, 8/18/21
TChaney said:




Translation
He is afraid of being beheaded. Nizamuddin Qaisari, a former militia commander, is captured by the Taliban in Bamyan province.
Would be nice if people post tweets in other languages if they would post a translation.

Nizamuddin Qaisari, a former militia commander, is captured by the Taliban in Bamyan province.#Bamyan is the object of protests against #Talibans#Taliban#Kabul
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to TChaney • 11:08a, 8/18/21
AG
TChaney said:


Ethnic regional map for reference.


China won't be able to secure the mineral deposits north of Kabul and certainly north of Jalalabad if Massoud can keep it together.
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The Collective
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In reply to TChaney • 11:18a, 8/18/21
AG
TChaney said:


Jokes on them. It is losing value each second.
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titan
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 11:20a, 8/18/21
S
Ag In Ok said:
TChaney said:


Ethnic regional map for reference.


China won't be able to secure the mineral deposits north of Kabul and certainly north of Jalalabad if Massoud can keep it together.
Which suspect would be just what Putin might want and might bolster it. Believe we are going to see some proxy shenanigans soon. They don't do alliances like that since 1939.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to titan • 11:22a, 8/18/21
AG
That's my thought were this would go - Tajikistan and Uzbekistan somehow gaining territory when the dust settles.
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deddog
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In reply to Ag In Ok • 11:22a, 8/18/21
AG
Ag In Ok said:
TChaney said:


Ethnic regional map for reference.


China won't be able to secure the mineral deposits north of Kabul and certainly north of Jalalabad if Massoud can keep it together.
The Taliban will move in on them and crush them.
Unlike 20 years ago, the Taliban aren't going to risk leaving a pocket for NA. They know how that turned out.

20 years ago the NA had regional allies (India, Iran, and then the US)
Now the Taliban is the ones with allies (China, Pakistan) and there is Zero chance of US air support
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whatthehey78
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11:24a, 8/18/21
AG
Any chance we could get a "Round Table" with the Administrations, Foreign Intel, State Dept., Military brass, politicians and diplomats who devised the brilliant plans, issued the ongoing public relations and provided us with the in-depth analysis of our Middle East progress for the last 20+ years?????

That would make for some interesting non-sensical rhetoric.

We (the US) are soooooooooo bad at this!
Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and myself founded empires; but upon what foundation did we rest the creations of our genius? Upon force! But Jesus Christ founded His upon love; and at this hour millions of men would die for Him. - Napoleon Bonaparte
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titan
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In reply to deddog • 11:25a, 8/18/21
S
deddog said:
Ag In Ok said:
TChaney said:


Ethnic regional map for reference.


China won't be able to secure the mineral deposits north of Kabul and certainly north of Jalalabad if Massoud can keep it together.
The Taliban will move in on them and crush them.
Unlike 20 years ago, the Taliban aren't going to risk leaving a pocket for NA. They know how that turned out.

20 years ago the NA had regional allies (India, Iran, and then the US)
Now the Taliban is the ones with allies (China, Pakistan) and there is Zero chance of US air support
Was talking about support from a more forceful entity than D.C.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
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will25u
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11:25a, 8/18/21
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aggiehawg
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In reply to deddog • 11:27a, 8/18/21
AG
Quote:
The Taliban will move in on them and crush them.
Unlike 20 years ago, the Taliban aren't going to risk leaving a pocket for NA. They know how that turned out.

20 years ago the NA had regional allies (India, Iran, and then the US)
Now the Taliban is the ones with allies (China, Pakistan) and there is Zero chance of US air support
But there could be Russian air support?
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aezmvp
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:29a, 8/18/21
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
The Taliban will move in on them and crush them.
Unlike 20 years ago, the Taliban aren't going to risk leaving a pocket for NA. They know how that turned out.

20 years ago the NA had regional allies (India, Iran, and then the US)
Now the Taliban is the ones with allies (China, Pakistan) and there is Zero chance of US air support
But there could be Russian air support?
Based on current situation doubtful unless the NA can actually claim some significant territory.
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Agvet12
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:30a, 8/18/21
AG
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
The Taliban will move in on them and crush them.
Unlike 20 years ago, the Taliban aren't going to risk leaving a pocket for NA. They know how that turned out.

20 years ago the NA had regional allies (India, Iran, and then the US)
Now the Taliban is the ones with allies (China, Pakistan) and there is Zero chance of US air support
But there could be Russian air support?


I would say limited but more so proxy support, as they won't to piss on China directly if it's China + Taliban v Russia + NA

The bigger key and question is will Russia and India form an anti China agreement going forward? Dare I say even some Iranian agreement with Russia (includes former Soviet states) and India
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will25u
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11:40a, 8/18/21
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aggiehawg
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In reply to aezmvp • 11:44a, 8/18/21
AG
aezmvp said:
aggiehawg said:
Quote:
The Taliban will move in on them and crush them.
Unlike 20 years ago, the Taliban aren't going to risk leaving a pocket for NA. They know how that turned out.

20 years ago the NA had regional allies (India, Iran, and then the US)
Now the Taliban is the ones with allies (China, Pakistan) and there is Zero chance of US air support
But there could be Russian air support?
Based on current situation doubtful unless the NA can actually claim some significant territory.
Taliban never took over Pansjir. The one province they stayed away from.
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TChaney
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11:45a, 8/18/21
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TChaney
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In reply to will25u • 11:45a, 8/18/21
will25u said:
TChaney said:
Translation
He is afraid of being beheaded. Nizamuddin Qaisari, a former militia commander, is captured by the Taliban in Bamyan province.
Would be nice if people post tweets in other languages if they would post a translation.

Nizamuddin Qaisari, a former militia commander, is captured by the Taliban in Bamyan province.#Bamyan is the object of protests against #Talibans#Taliban#Kabul
You're welcome
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TChaney
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11:52a, 8/18/21




Very good consolidation thread with commentary
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1427032724599103488.html
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Agvet12
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In reply to TChaney • 11:57a, 8/18/21
AG
TChaney said:




Very good consolidation thread with commentary
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1427032724599103488.html


Yep we're gonna abandon our own . That's what that says. This is utter bull**** and we're gonna delay our departure and eventually get attacked
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to TChaney • 11:58a, 8/18/21
AG
Way to go 2 Para - save your people! Our deal apparently is our deal only, do what you have to do.

Is the friction from the commanders or the political operatives / state department?
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richardag
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In reply to TChaney • 12:04p, 8/18/21
TChaney said:


Jalalabad farther East of Kabul
I fear the killing fields of Cambodia will be eclipsed in Afghanistan.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to TChaney • 12:09p, 8/18/21
AG
For the same link:

.@Channel4News have reported that the UK ambassador to Afghanistan, Laurie Bristow, has remained at Kabul's Hamid Karzai International Airport and is personally processing visas for Afghans wishing to escape to the United Kingdom.

He doesn't intend to leave until the end.
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