Consolidated Fall of Kabul Update Thread

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Jayhawk
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10:08p, 8/14/21
15 August 0735 local Kabul time
14 August 2205 Texas Time

The airport remains open to civilian traffic - a FlyDubai flight just landed minutes ago.

Social media reports of fighting inside of Kabul thus far uncorroborated by mainstream outlets.

The Taliban have themselves a little air force. (2 x Mi-17 per social media)

Mass defections among the ANA leading to a deluge in arms and possibly manpower for the Talibs.

Jalalabad has fallen, thus completing the encirclement of Kabul.

Advance elements of the U.S. relief / evacuation force have arrived in Kabul per MSM outlets.

Thats where it stands. I figure it would be useful to have an update thread to discuss the situation there without the arguing about resettling terps and which politicians are most to blame etc. Feel free to add whatever you got.


[Moderators have bolded the last paragraph to keep this thread on topic and not clutter it up with political opinions. We have plenty of other threads on this forum for that. If your post gets deleted from the thread, it is probably because it strayed from the topic. - STAFF]
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Eliminatus
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In reply to Jayhawk • 10:12p, 8/14/21
AG
Thanks.

Also kindly ask everyone to keep this thread free of political debating por favor. We need a separate facts and figures thread from the main one for those who want to keep track of what is actually going on and not sift through volumes of whose fault it is.
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Yukon Cornelius
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10:18p, 8/14/21
AG
Think of the logistics for the air assets trying to refuel.
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Dan Scott
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10:18p, 8/14/21
AG
Most recent Snapchat out of Kabul. If anybody can translate that'd be nice.

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYHEn1MIaaYNEYAXtHQC2sAXtHQC2sAO1OAA?share_id=NDJEQUE0&locale=en_US
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Agthatbuilds
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10:24p, 8/14/21
Hard to tell whats accurate. Twitter is full of bots or uncorroborated info.

The power is also out for most of Kabul and there definitely seems to be some skirmishes happening in the suburbs
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Dan Scott
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10:28p, 8/14/21
AG
Things seem pretty calm

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYFqtPvtf3X6nmAXtHzqbUAXtHzqbTAO1OAA?share_id=RUNCMEMy&locale=en_US

And further evidence airport is open and operating as normal

https://map.snapchat.com/ttp/snap/W7_EDlXWTBiXAEEniNoMPwAAYNNRYXnXKuVaHAXtHyu7PAXtHyu7PAO1OAA?share_id=RDEzQzE4&locale=en_US
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Jayhawk
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10:40p, 8/14/21
The Turkish Airlines flight that arrived from Istanbul should be at the gate being prepared for a 0815 local departure (several minutes from time of this post). Will be the next useful data point in determining the status of the airport.

I imagine there is quite a strange atmosphere among the passengers at the gate for that flight. Can you imagine being the person checking tickets right now?
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denied
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In reply to Agthatbuilds • 10:43p, 8/14/21
Agthatbuilds said:
The power is also out for most of Kabul and there definitely seems to be some skirmishes happening in the suburbs


Even if the power is out, lots of cell towers have back up generators and car chargers do exist in Afghanistan. It wouldn't surprise me to know that Joe Afghan's tweets are accurate and that is how he is posting.
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Agthatbuilds
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In reply to denied • 10:49p, 8/14/21
True. But. It has gotten to the point of tons of spam and hard to verify what's accurate.

For example. I posted a video of an alleged firefight on the outskirts of kabul on the other thread. Turns out that might have been from Syria. There's just a lot of potentially false info that gets retweeted a lot and so on.

Very little news from real sources
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W
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10:51p, 8/14/21
AG
maybe the Taliban have decided to leave the airport alone for now.

also...while it looks bad that so much equipment has been left behind...maintenance is a huge issue
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Agthatbuilds
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In reply to W • 10:53p, 8/14/21
I think a main theory is that the taliban is going to let the westerners get out and then claim a huge PR victory.

Then again, trapping 3000 Marines and another couple thousand airborne troops would be a pretty big pr boost
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Jayhawk
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10:54p, 8/14/21


CNN (sorry) Nat. Sec. correspondent
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Eliminatus
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10:57p, 8/14/21
AG
I know that there is a regional Afghan army corps centered in Kabul along with an ANA division. I wonder if we are even talking to them at all and trying to include them in our plans? I'd guess no. Aside from our own few rapid response units, I don't think there is much force we can rely on to defend anything.

Kabul is north of 4 million people and much of the wealth and western infrastructure. My kneejerk thought is that the ANA and the people capitulate ASAP. Which leaves us in quite the tactical pickle.
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denied
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In reply to W • 10:57p, 8/14/21
This is very true. Equipment in Taliban hands does not concern me because the culture isn't big into modern maintenance. Arms and ammunition in their hands is disconcerting.

Interestingly, even though cell phones and radios are big over there; in the mid-90s Chevron had to buy the Taliban government a fax machine in order to conduct negotiations because they didn't have one.
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Jayhawk
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In reply to Agthatbuilds • 11:00p, 8/14/21
Agthatbuilds said:
I think a main theory is that the taliban is going to let the westerners get out and then claim a huge PR victory.

Then again, trapping 3000 Marines and another couple thousand airborne troops would be a pretty big pr boost
I could see it going either way. I imagine there are some very significant bribes in play right now from Uncle Sam to the Taliban to keep back from the airport. On the other hand, this is an opportunity that comes only once in a century or two to really inflict a world historic humiliation and defeat on the most powerful force in the western world (and one that has been killing and tormenting them from the sky for years).

But.... if they chose to fight it would result in very serious casualties to the Taliban and they have to be prepared for the conflicts that are sure to follow our departure as they try to consolidate and sew up their power after the end of the current regime. So do you throw the dice and lose an sizeable chunk of your fighting force, and risk damaging their currently high morale, or do you use strategic patience, pocket the payoff, and walk into Kabul after the last C-17 is wheels up?
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denied
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In reply to Eliminatus • 11:01p, 8/14/21
I really don't think Americans have anything to fear from the Taliban so long as we don't approach/accost/challenge them. I feel like they are more than happy to let us leave because that gives them the victory. They don't need to kill/capture Americans to claim the win or get PR.
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Agthatbuilds
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11:01p, 8/14/21
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i is smart
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In reply to Agthatbuilds • 11:05p, 8/14/21
AG
Agthatbuilds said:


That's promising, but man the Taliban showed they can crank the temperature up rather quickly when they want to.
***Disclaimer***
My in-game comments should not be taken seriously, as I am not a coach. Additionally, unauthorized screenshotting and distribution of my comments is not only discouraged but also considered lame as hell.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to i is smart • 11:17p, 8/14/21
AG
If they were truly walking into the city last night they are probably hiding out in smaller cells to come back out after dark and harass defenses while main invasion comes in via road. Still haven't verified the video of them walking into city was real or from another place.
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Agthatbuilds
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11:18p, 8/14/21
Well, the taliban must be taking a break. News has just stopped
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Not a Bot
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In reply to Agthatbuilds • 11:21p, 8/14/21
AG
Curious how much of that invasion last night was real vs Twitter propaganda. May be why media outlets aren't covering as it really isn't as bad as it appeared in Kabul yet. Even Al Jazeera wasn't doing minute by minute coverage of Kabul. Hopefully they aren't anywhere close to a city takeover yet.
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AlaskanAg99
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11:24p, 8/14/21
AG
Or the taliban is simply inflitrating and positioning.

Determining which Afgan army units will flip, flee or need to be slaughtered.
aTm '99
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Rapier108
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:24p, 8/14/21
Captain Positivity said:
Curious how much of that invasion last night was real vs Twitter propaganda. May be why media outlets aren't covering as it really isn't as bad as it appeared in Kabul yet. Even Al Jazeera wasn't doing minute by minute coverage of Kabul. Hopefully they aren't anywhere close to a city takeover yet.
Given all of the pictures and videos which claimed to be from "Wuhan" last year, and turned out to be Chinese psyops, nothing on Twitter should be accepted at face value.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to denied • 11:30p, 8/14/21
AG
20 years of fighting and IED making and you think they will play nice?
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GarryowenAg
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11:44p, 8/14/21
AG
I've spent most of today in an emotional entanglement. Having lost buddies in these wars, I wish I were still a young trigger-puller and could be there to help.
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denied
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 11:48p, 8/14/21
I think they can be patient while we get the last Americans out. Even when I was there in '13 my unit didn't have any combat with actual Taliban. And in '16/'17 my battalion made it through a nine month deployment without a single casualty and I don't think anyone had any combat. These people have proven the one thing they are is patient.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 11:53p, 8/14/21
AG
If they want us gone and they are smart they will.

If they try to pin the marines/army and win on the ground they will likely be facing more American boots there along with a massive air campaign. Another 3,000 82nd Airborne are on standby in Kuwait to supplement the 5,000 or so troops in the Kabul area. Taliban knows this. The 8,000 will turn into 18,000 if needed. Biden is a vegetable but the military brass isn't going to let their guys get cornered and killed like that. The worst thing the Taliban could do is garner American public support for more action.
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to Not a Bot • 12:09a, 8/15/21
AG
They also know there's no airbase left but I pray you're right.
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Seabreeze
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1:00a, 8/15/21
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Seabreeze
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1:01a, 8/15/21
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1:02a, 8/15/21
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Seabreeze
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1:12a, 8/15/21
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C@LAg
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1:13a, 8/15/21
what about the US military equipment?
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Seabreeze
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1:13a, 8/15/21

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Seabreeze
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1:14a, 8/15/21
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