Consolidated Fall of Kabul Update Thread

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Clob94
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11:59a, 8/15/21
That's savage....



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Clob94
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12:03p, 8/15/21
Don't know it real.



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Clob94
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12:04p, 8/15/21



Can someone confirm?
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Horn_in_Aggieland
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12:06p, 8/15/21
Defense Secretary blames Afghan collapse on lack of "willpower," "leadership" during call Sunday

Blinken indicated that the U.S. has prepared for all scenarios, including the one playing out in the country right now.

In other words, things are going just as planned?!!!!???
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akaggie05
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In reply to Clob94 • 12:12p, 8/15/21
AG
Clob94 said:



Can someone confirm?
Yes.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae2f9e

Edit: the position hasn't updated for a few minutes. Likely turning off transponders or switching to Mode 4/5 IFF as they exit UAE-controlled airspace and enter into hostile territory.
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Clob94
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12:16p, 8/15/21
It's official folks....




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Clob94
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12:17p, 8/15/21
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will25u
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12:19p, 8/15/21
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Clob94
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12:20p, 8/15/21
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Franchise04
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12:32p, 8/15/21
Not a Bot
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12:37p, 8/15/21
AG
Please everyone, this is the update thread, not the political one.
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Yukon Cornelius
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12:38p, 8/15/21
AG

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UHcoog10
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12:43p, 8/15/21
Don't post here often but a friend from church mentioned this thread so thought I'd check it out. Appreciate a lot of the news and insights.

SILs father is/was at the embassy in Kabul. He was giving updates pretty regularly until this morning. Not sure what the situation is so all the updates from Twitter links are helpful.
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whytho987654
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12:44p, 8/15/21
Hope all the USA personnel make it out unharmed and leave while taking out as much of those blood lusting terrorists as possible
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jagvocate
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In reply to whytho987654 • 12:48p, 8/15/21
AG
[LEAVE THE POLITICIAL COMMENTARY OFF OF THIS THREAD. -Staff]
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Edited by Staff
Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to whytho987654 • 12:50p, 8/15/21
AG
5,000 service men are the suicide squad to get the politicians out
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Ag In Ok
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In reply to will25u • 12:54p, 8/15/21
AG
Nm
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fightingfarmer09
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In reply to Yukon Cornelius • 12:55p, 8/15/21
Yukon Cornelius said:



My blood is boiling knowing this is occurring. It will be used to fund terrorist attacks around the globe.
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Dan Scott
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12:55p, 8/15/21
AG
USAF plane from Dubai took off headed back to Dubai. And state department plane on the ground in Kabul
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Not a Bot
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12:57p, 8/15/21
AG
What's the capacity of those flights? 300-350?
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Seabreeze
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1:00p, 8/15/21
Wonder how many dead US soldiers are laying in the streets of Kabul.
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Dan Scott
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1:00p, 8/15/21
AG
The USAF plane was huge 4 engine plane. The state department plane looks like 50 max.
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akaggie05
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In reply to Not a Bot • 1:04p, 8/15/21
AG
Captain Positivity said:
What's the capacity of those flights? 300-350?


Assume the 4-engine cargo jets seen in the videos are C-17s, official listed passenger capacity is 188. But, no doubt they are packing them in like sardines. Would not be surprised if they could get 4-500 jammed in there. Very similar to what Israel did in the early 90s while evacuating Ethiopian Jews... I think the most passengers ever recorded on a flight was over 1000, packed in to an El Al 747.
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gator2
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1:13p, 8/15/21
AG
Former AF pilot here who has been in/out of Kabul.
Weight will be a factor in taking off. Hi pressure altitudes with surrounding mountains. It's no joke getting in and out of there. May not be able to keep packing people in as a result.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to akaggie05 • 1:13p, 8/15/21
AG
So with about 5000 troops there, plus likely a few thousand civilians (hopefully not that many) we are looking at what, 30ish flights if they all fly out in a similar manner? One runway? Do we have that transport capacity in the area? I'm assuming the airborne troops brought their own lift vehicles and will leave on those? Just praying we get about 12 to 24 more hours.
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akaggie05
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In reply to gator2 • 1:14p, 8/15/21
AG
Good point. I was in/out of there a few times as a contractor but of course that was on a normal passenger 737.
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Yukon Cornelius
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In reply to Not a Bot • 1:15p, 8/15/21
AG
Also refueling will be an issue. We lost all the other air bases.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to gator2 • 1:16p, 8/15/21
AG
I was actually going to take that question on my last post. I've heard from a civilian who's been there that the civilian flights are incredibly weight sensitive due to those factors. Not sure how they do it now with the scales, but at one point they were just asking people how much they weighed and he would always lie to make sure there was a few extra pounds. He was always told it was related to fuel, which is possible, but really the altitude and close proximity of mountain ranges makes sense.
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akaggie05
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In reply to Not a Bot • 1:17p, 8/15/21
AG
Captain Positivity said:
So with about 5000 troops there, plus likely a few thousand civilians (hopefully not that many) we are looking at what, 30ish flights if they all fly out in a similar manner? One runway? Do we have that transport capacity in the area? I'm assuming the airborne troops brought their own lift vehicles and will leave on those? Just praying we get about 12 to 24 more hours.


Likely a steady train of aircraft back and forth from Al Udeid...
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Jayhawk
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1:18p, 8/15/21
No precipitation in the forecast over the next 48-72 hours, thankfully. Last thing we'd need is weather interfering with aviation and drawing things out.

People take for granted the complexities of running an airfield.... I can only imagine the chaos unfolding at the airport right now with the volume of traffic, half the city bearing down on the facility looking for a way out, and the possibility of hostile fire at any moment. If we can get out of this thing without an accident or something stupid happening it will be a major accomplishment.
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Who?mikejones!
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1:20p, 8/15/21
I've not been able to keep up. Any reports of Marines or airborne in combat?
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Clob94
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1:20p, 8/15/21



Getting sporty.
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Jayhawk
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 1:21p, 8/15/21
Agthatbuilds said:
I've not been able to keep up. Any reports of Marines or airborne in combat?
No. Hopefully it stays that way.
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Not a Bot
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1:21p, 8/15/21
AG
Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
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gator2
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1:23p, 8/15/21
AG
It's a function of many variables. Aircraft type and weight, temp, pressure, fuel load, cargo/pax load, terrain, gas on takeoff, ability to aerial refuel on the way out, wind direction, location of any militants nearby, etc.

The published numbers for passenger counts are related to seats available, not to exceed a max weight. That's before accounting got some of the things I mentioned above.

When C-130s left Vietnam, they were overloaded with people. I've never been there so I don't know about the terrain or pressure altitudes. But in this situation think operating in Colorado.
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