Consolidated Fall of Kabul Update Thread

424,578 Views | 3966 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Señor Chang
Clob94
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Oh this is great news.......... sheesh.


Not a Bot
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AG
akaggie05 said:

Captain Positivity said:

So with about 5000 troops there, plus likely a few thousand civilians (hopefully not that many) we are looking at what, 30ish flights if they all fly out in a similar manner? One runway? Do we have that transport capacity in the area? I'm assuming the airborne troops brought their own lift vehicles and will leave on those? Just praying we get about 12 to 24 more hours.


Likely a steady train of aircraft back and forth from Al Udeid...


That's why I'm surprised to see reports of only a few planes at a time and a small state dept plane. I would've hoped for 10 to 15 to be in the air constantly going in and out. Hopefully we have most of our non-military people out by now. The issue is going to be security as the troops start to leave. Who is going to guard the gates and the runway as our numbers dwindle?
Jayhawk
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Captain Positivity said:

Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
100%.

Also, the way the airport is situated right up against dense urban terrain is a nightmare for fire support in the event it is necessary. It is just about the most vulnerable position that the U.S. military has been in since at least 1975.

I imagine theres more than a few cursing our decision to abandon Bagram prematurely.
Who?mikejones!
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Jayhawk said:

Agthatbuilds said:

I've not been able to keep up. Any reports of Marines or airborne in combat?
No. Hopefully it stays that way.


Thank God. Just get our troops out safe.
gator2
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AG
Also keep in mind limitations of ramp space and only one runway. Oh, and there's not an unlimited amount of gas there.
Clob94
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Tom Doniphon
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Clob94 said:

Oh this is great news.......... sheesh.





Damn.
Clob94
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Royal Marines have arrived.


Matt_ag98
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Jayhawk said:

Captain Positivity said:

Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
100%.

Also, the way the airport is situated right up against dense urban terrain is a nightmare for fire support in the event it is necessary. It is just about the most vulnerable position that the U.S. military has been in since at least 1975.

I imagine theres more than a few cursing our decision to abandon Bagram prematurely.


How would we have gotten the embassy people to Bagram in this situation? HKIA is literally a straight shot 3.5 miles down the road from the embassy
Jayhawk
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Matt_ag98 said:

Jayhawk said:

Captain Positivity said:

Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
100%.

Also, the way the airport is situated right up against dense urban terrain is a nightmare for fire support in the event it is necessary. It is just about the most vulnerable position that the U.S. military has been in since at least 1975.

I imagine theres more than a few cursing our decision to abandon Bagram prematurely.


How would we have gotten the embassy people to Bagram in this situation? HKIA is literally a straight shot 3.5 miles down the road from the embassy
Same way they ended up doing it - helicopter. Even the short distance by road from HKIA to the embassy is no bueno after the ANP and ANA chekcpoints melt away and there are unlocated Taliban elements roaming about the city.
black_ice
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Matt_ag98 said:

Jayhawk said:

Captain Positivity said:

Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
100%.

Also, the way the airport is situated right up against dense urban terrain is a nightmare for fire support in the event it is necessary. It is just about the most vulnerable position that the U.S. military has been in since at least 1975.

I imagine theres more than a few cursing our decision to abandon Bagram prematurely.


How would we have gotten the embassy people to Bagram in this situation? HKIA is literally a straight shot 3.5 miles down the road from the embassy


Helicopter
Squadron7
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AG
I knew we needed to leave and would...but I pictured an actual military buildup in advance of getting allies out first, then civilians, and then the last people out would be all carrying weaponry and rolling grenades into any equipment left behind.
Good Poster
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gator2
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100%. Bagram is way easier to get lots of aircraft in/out. The capacity/accessibility is more dramatic than the comparison of San Antonio international versus your local one runway community airport (but way worse).
Clob94
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Oh--- this dude was in Gitmo for 8 years.

How'd he get out?



Good Poster
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cbr
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Shelter in place!? **** you. The only tactic left now for any westerner or known collaborator now is get armed get dark and sneak a way on a plane, into a us military unit that will take you in, or out of the country. And save a bullet for yourself.

And with the taliban in control with trucks choppers and night vision it's pretty much even more hopeless than trying to sneak out of there before.

black_ice
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cbr said:

Shelter in place!? **** you. The only tactic left now for any westerner or known collaborator now is get armed get dark and sneak a way on a plane, into a us military unit that will take you in, or out of the country. And save a bullet for yourself.

And with the taliban in control with trucks choppers and night vision it's pretty much even more hopeless than trying to sneak out of there before.




Agreed. Americans cut off need to find weapons ASAP.
Tom Doniphon
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What an absolute CF...

I pray the innocents can somehow escape.
Matt_ag98
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black_ice said:

Matt_ag98 said:

Jayhawk said:

Captain Positivity said:

Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
100%.

Also, the way the airport is situated right up against dense urban terrain is a nightmare for fire support in the event it is necessary. It is just about the most vulnerable position that the U.S. military has been in since at least 1975.

I imagine theres more than a few cursing our decision to abandon Bagram prematurely.


How would we have gotten the embassy people to Bagram in this situation? HKIA is literally a straight shot 3.5 miles down the road from the embassy


Helicopter


That's a lot of helicopters/ospreys over the mountain in what could be contested airspace at this point, logically the embassy and HKIA were always going to be the last bases (if any) in Afghanistan
black_ice
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Matt_ag98 said:

black_ice said:

Matt_ag98 said:

Jayhawk said:

Captain Positivity said:

Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
100%.

Also, the way the airport is situated right up against dense urban terrain is a nightmare for fire support in the event it is necessary. It is just about the most vulnerable position that the U.S. military has been in since at least 1975.

I imagine theres more than a few cursing our decision to abandon Bagram prematurely.


How would we have gotten the embassy people to Bagram in this situation? HKIA is literally a straight shot 3.5 miles down the road from the embassy


Helicopter


That's a lot of helicopters/ospreys over the mountain in what could be contested airspace at this point, logically the embassy and HKIA were always going to be the last bases (if any) in Afghanistan


K. You asked how. With helicopters is the answer.
Who?mikejones!
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Odds taliban holds off until most civilians are gone then attempts to prevent soldiers and Marines from departing?
Jayhawk
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Matt_ag98 said:

black_ice said:

Matt_ag98 said:

Jayhawk said:

Captain Positivity said:

Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
100%.

Also, the way the airport is situated right up against dense urban terrain is a nightmare for fire support in the event it is necessary. It is just about the most vulnerable position that the U.S. military has been in since at least 1975.

I imagine theres more than a few cursing our decision to abandon Bagram prematurely.


How would we have gotten the embassy people to Bagram in this situation? HKIA is literally a straight shot 3.5 miles down the road from the embassy


Helicopter


That's a lot of helicopters/ospreys over the mountain in what could be contested airspace at this point, logically the embassy and HKIA were always going to be the last bases (if any) in Afghanistan
Well agree to disagree. The airspace is not going to be contested, there is no doubt a CAP 24/7 out of al-Udeid right now. The helicopters could fly out towards Bagram or they can fly over the city to a single runway airport abutted on 3 sides by dense urban terrain..... Bagram was the superior option. Bagram also allows for an extended perimeter where its possible to call fires with less risk of collateral instead of having 2+ brigades worth bunched up inside the confined HKIA compound with half of Kabul trying to get onto planes.
hbtheduce
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AG
You think Biden will get 10% on the ransom money he sends them on pallets?
Ted Lasso
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black_ice said:

cbr said:

Shelter in place!? **** you. The only tactic left now for any westerner or known collaborator now is get armed get dark and sneak a way on a plane, into a us military unit that will take you in, or out of the country. And save a bullet for yourself.

And with the taliban in control with trucks choppers and night vision it's pretty much even more hopeless than trying to sneak out of there before.




Agreed. Americans cut off need to find weapons ASAP.
Lord Miles posted he bought a burka to walk back and forth from the airport, but switched it over to a highly covered male local dress when taliban started staring him down
dmart90
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Tom Doniphon said:

Clob94 said:

Oh this is great news.......... sheesh.





Damn.

As a father, I guarantee you I would go down swinging to protect my daughter from this. Any man who won't is a damn coward.
torrid
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gator2 said:

Also keep in mind limitations of ramp space and only one runway. Oh, and there's not an unlimited amount of gas there.


I would hope they planned flights to not require refueling in Kabul.
Matt_ag98
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Jayhawk said:

Matt_ag98 said:

black_ice said:

Matt_ag98 said:

Jayhawk said:

Captain Positivity said:

Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
100%.

Also, the way the airport is situated right up against dense urban terrain is a nightmare for fire support in the event it is necessary. It is just about the most vulnerable position that the U.S. military has been in since at least 1975.

I imagine theres more than a few cursing our decision to abandon Bagram prematurely.


How would we have gotten the embassy people to Bagram in this situation? HKIA is literally a straight shot 3.5 miles down the road from the embassy


Helicopter


That's a lot of helicopters/ospreys over the mountain in what could be contested airspace at this point, logically the embassy and HKIA were always going to be the last bases (if any) in Afghanistan
Well agree to disagree. The airspace is not going to be contested, there is no doubt a CAP 24/7 out of al-Udeid right now. The helicopters could fly out towards Bagram or they can fly over the city to a single runway airport abutted on 3 sides by dense urban terrain..... Bagram was the superior option. Bagram also allows for an extended perimeter where its possible to call fires with less risk of collateral instead of having 2+ brigades worth bunched up inside the confined HKIA compound with half of Kabul trying to get onto planes.


Sounds like you should have written in to the CENTCOM J-5 with that idea
black_ice
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dmart90 said:

Tom Doniphon said:

Clob94 said:

Oh this is great news.......... sheesh.





Damn.

As a father, I guarantee you I would go down swinging to protect my daughter from this. Any man who won't is a damn coward.


They are all cowards. Look at what happened.
Jayhawk
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Matt_ag98 said:

Jayhawk said:

Matt_ag98 said:

black_ice said:

Matt_ag98 said:

Jayhawk said:

Captain Positivity said:

Then, the logistics of this just have me pacing back-and-forth. This is something, at least the speed of the evacuation, that is incredibly difficult if not impossible to plan for. Resources have to be in place ahead of time. I just hope we have the time to get our people out. I hope they honor whatever agreement was made to let our folks go. I think if they are smart they will, knowing we have significant ability to wipe them out from the air if we choose including targeted strikes on leaders. But you do you have a bunch of militias banding together and some will want their own form of glory, can't rule out some acting outside of Taliban wishes.
100%.

Also, the way the airport is situated right up against dense urban terrain is a nightmare for fire support in the event it is necessary. It is just about the most vulnerable position that the U.S. military has been in since at least 1975.

I imagine theres more than a few cursing our decision to abandon Bagram prematurely.


How would we have gotten the embassy people to Bagram in this situation? HKIA is literally a straight shot 3.5 miles down the road from the embassy


Helicopter


That's a lot of helicopters/ospreys over the mountain in what could be contested airspace at this point, logically the embassy and HKIA were always going to be the last bases (if any) in Afghanistan
Well agree to disagree. The airspace is not going to be contested, there is no doubt a CAP 24/7 out of al-Udeid right now. The helicopters could fly out towards Bagram or they can fly over the city to a single runway airport abutted on 3 sides by dense urban terrain..... Bagram was the superior option. Bagram also allows for an extended perimeter where its possible to call fires with less risk of collateral instead of having 2+ brigades worth bunched up inside the confined HKIA compound with half of Kabul trying to get onto planes.


Sounds like you should have written in to the CENTCOM J-5 with that idea
Yeah it does.
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
What base are they going to refuel at? It's a horrible situation. They likely don't have much time they can fly around waiting to land. It's likely why we don't see more planes. No way to fuel them. It was a mistake to abandon the air bases.
Ag$08
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https://af.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-kabul-afghanistan-15/

Not sure if already posted, but the US embassy is advising Americans shelter in place and that the airport is taking fire.
richardag
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Clob94 said:

Oh this is great news.......... sheesh.



Sick, morally corrupt.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
gator2
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Spot on. Even if they are operating aircraft, their best and most capable pilots/equipment are well below our capability to defeat with just a few assets.
gator2
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Agree that they should. The point is that there are a TON of logistical considerations in air operations.

Oh, and they should've done a lot of things that I think we all agree have not been done.
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