People have been screaming that the government is just printing money and its all going to come crashing down.

Beef. An important purchase for many tens of millions American families.

Wal-Mart beef - good quality control, with once reasonable prices.

Quote:

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I'd just like to know where he is today.

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I understand he's in the witness protection program and living in the Phoenix area under the new name "Joe Brown."

For a living he pushes a broom at the local CVS.

BusterAg said:

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AggieMD95 said:

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Oldag2020 said:

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Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.

Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.

It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.

In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.


Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

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Haha this aged well

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Sometimes, you are so spectacularly wrong, you just have to abort the username.

When this guy started talking about disagreeing with Mises, I knew this thread would be epic.

I did adjust my portfolio around my expectations, invested in rental houses with 4% mortgages, and did spectacular.

The logic on this thread was so epically wrong, when anyone with a basic understanding of economics knew what was going to happen, including the jokers at the Fed.

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lol, that was hilarious. It seems he said he had hundreds of notes he made in the book where he disagreed. A twenty something disagreeing with one of the greatest economic minds ever. My advice was to study those differences to determine why Mises was right, and he was wrong. I don't imagine he did that.

VegasAg86 said:

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oldcrow91 said:

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DrEvazanPhD said:

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This OP may be dumber than the Two Teas theory

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Sad part is OP and the transitory inflation FED were pretty much on the same page.

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They are also Keynesian fools.

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No the Fed knows exactly what they are doing.

We need to sticky this thead. This was a massive boatload of fail.

Red Pear Realty said:

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VegasAg86 said:

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oldcrow91 said:

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DrEvazanPhD said:

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This OP may be dumber than the Two Teas theory

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Sad part is OP and the transitory inflation FED were pretty much on the same page.

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They are also Keynesian fools.

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No the Fed knows exactly what they are doing.

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Powell is a Keynesian. I'm not so sure he does know what he is doing.

Fed Chair Powell Perpetuates Keynesian Myths

VegasAg86 said:

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Powell is a Keynesian. I'm not so sure he does know what he is doing.

Fed Chair Powell Perpetuates Keynesian Myths

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He knows what he's doing. The whole Federal Reserve is a banking cartel in bed with the government and he's just looking after THEIR interests, not ours. Based on that, I can understand how someone in his position would promote these ideas. But I can't understand how anyone like the OP would actually believe them.

More bogus numbers:

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The latest reading of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge showed prices increased slightly more than expected in June.

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out the cost of food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.6% over the prior year in June; above economists estimate of a 2.5% increase and unchanged from the month prior. Still, the print marked the slowest annual increase for core PCE in more than three years.

Core PCE rose 0.2 % from the prior month, in line with Wall Street's expectations for 0.2% and faster than the 0.1% increase seen in May.

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Will be 'adjusted' around mid November, no doubt.

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Ahead of Friday's PCE release, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell noted recent inflation data "add somewhat to confidence" inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% target. The Fed's next monetary policy decision will come on July 31.

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fullback44 said:

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Is this one of the worst all time threads that was 1000 % wrong, the OP was so far off base with reality you can wonder how he came to those conclusions

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By looking at the world through leftist lenses and listening to Alan Blinder and Janet Yellen.

Tom Doniphon said:

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Poor OP... dude really believed that garbage.

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Sounds like TAMU needs to clean up is Economics programs. Keynesian *etards running amok. But to be fair Tech in the 80's was a Milton Friedman fan club.

Seriously, eco departments have a profound affect on ideological development of their students. That OP read like a Keynesian nightmare. Really for every 1$ spent by the gov returns greater than $1 growth in GDP.

Thats true only because the returned dollar is usually inflated. However if they adjust that dollar with a historic benchmark its worth less that the 1$ input.

Gov has always been horribly inefficient. People are not incentivized to work as hard as they do in the private sector because they don't have anything to lose. For example nobody works harder than those at the top of a start up.

Just look at EV's promising tech. Feds put in billions. it created a tech bubble as people rushed to build infrastructure, plant, and equipment to take advantage of grant $. Then boom, the tech was flawed and the marketed adjusted accordingly -- downward. The gov falsely reduced the risk. The private sector would have vetted each stage of tech development.

Sure there are cases where this works. But the private sector is always more efficient than gov on a 1$ per 1$ basis. You dont have to be an economic expert to see this.

Why does the left always ignore human nature ? Always looking at the ideal vs the reality. Such simple primitive beings

ttu_85 said:

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Tom Doniphon said:

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Poor OP... dude really believed that garbage.

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Sounds like TAMU needs to clean up is Economics programs. Keynesian *etards running amok. But to be fair Tech in the 80's was a Milton Friedman fan club.

Seriously, eco departments have a profound affect on ideological development of their students. That OP read like a Keynesian nightmare. Really for every 1$ spent by the gov returns greater than $1 growth in GDP.

Thats true only because the returned dollar is usually inflated. However if they adjust that dollar with a historic benchmark its worth less that the 1$ input.

Gov has always been horribly inefficient. People are not incentivized to work as hard as they do in the private sector because they don't have anything to lose. For example nobody works harder than those at the top of a start up.

Just look at EV's promising tech. Feds put in billions. it created a tech bubble as people rushed to build infrastructure, plant, and equipment to take advantage of grant $. Then boom, the tech was flawed and the marketed adjusted accordingly -- downward. The gov falsely reduced the risk. The private sector would have vetted each stage of tech development.

Sure there are cases where this works. But the private sector is always more efficient than gov on a 1$ per 1$ basis. You dont have to be an economic expert to see this.

Why does the left always ignore human nature ? Always looking at the ideal vs the reality. Such simple primitive beings

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More important than inflation are the impacts of inflation expectations when the government runs a deficit and people expect inflation to occur. People will spend less money, hold back money, anticipating that future taxes will go up to pay back the government debt. In practice, these expected future taxes include the expansion of the money supply by the Fed, which is a form of tax.

We saw this work in real life in 2020 - 2024. The market expected the Fed to expand the money supply to pay for deficits. So, even though there were low interest rates, there was a flood to hard assets prior to the massive inflation. You saw it most pronounced in the real estate market. One of the primary reasons why houses became so expensive is because financial buyers with dollars and access to cheap debt entered into the market and bought up a ton of inventory. This shift of savings pushed the Keynesian multiplier down quite a bit, probably pretty close to 1.

all of you guys are so ungrateful.

the last CPI showed ONLY a 2.3% year over year increase in inflation!

You are welcome!!

Oldag2020 said:

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Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.

Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.

It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.

In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.


Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

---

You clearly don't work in a business that depends on a reliable supply chain performance. There is a delivery challenge for both product and quality of that product. That will not change anytime soon.

Red Pear Realty said:

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VegasAg86 said:

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oldcrow91 said:

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DrEvazanPhD said:

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This OP may be dumber than the Two Teas theory

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Sad part is OP and the transitory inflation FED were pretty much on the same page.

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They are also Keynesian fools.

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No the Fed knows exactly what they are doing.

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The irony is, they do.... and they do exactly what they are supposed to do and LIE all the time while pretending to fix problems they and our politicians are creating.

You know who keeps getting rich during these inflation adjustments?

BusterAg said:

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I honestly think that Yellen knew her predictions were going to be wrong, but she stuck with the course and played politics because it likely made her rich.

Just sheer corruption. Sad and infuriating.

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During a press conference, when a reporter asked U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the stability of the dollar, the U.S. Treasury seal suddenly fell to the ground with a loud crash.

A Dramatic Scene #US #dollar #USA pic.twitter.com/1wcsMfplQN

— 鳳凰資訊 PhoenixTV News (@PhoenixTV_News) October 28, 2024

That's exactly what I'm saying and reactions tend to be moderately aggressive (even here) when I suggest that during times of inflation, the rich get a whole lot richer at the expense of the poor and middle classes. Hell folks here got pissy when we suggested that this whole mess would last 4 to 5 years minimum.