waitwhat? said:
It's the last day of 2022 and inflation is still a problem. Can OP give us a 2023 outlook? Will it prove to be transitory by 2024?
Here is your 2023 outlook:
Inflation will persist through all of 2023. It may not ratchet up much higher…yet. The FED has managed to place one more triangle on the house of cards. It may not be the next or the one after that, but at some point it will come down. We will see more business closures and wages will continue to fall in real terms. Stagflation is the order of the foreseeable future.
At some point, soon, the fed will be faced with the decision to reverse course or allow it all to come down. I believe they will cave and money printer will go brrr again. As inflation decimates any remaining savings, prices for things you don't need (or can't afford) will come down while all the things you do need will steadily rise.
The ONLY thing that will fix this is politically unthinkable. Massive cuts to government and drastic reduction of taxes. Return to sound money and no more looting of the middle class. This will not happen. It will likely do more of the same. As things get worse, government will become more and more desperate. The warning signs of this will be progressively crazier ideas for how to fix this. Once price controls and wealth taxes or helicopter money start being seriously discussed, then we will know the game is almost over.
I am betting heavily in inflation hedges, self reliance, and resilience. I personally have no faith in our government and expect to be largely on my own and within my small town community. In other words, it's going to get MUCH worse.
Happy new year!