The reason we should not be concerned about inflation

110,454 Views | 916 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by Helicopter Ben
IslanderAg04
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DamnGood86 said:

I do miss the OP's writing style of lecturing we ignorant rabble.

I speculate he was an insurance salesman; those are always the smartest folks. He was all in on no-harm, transitory inflation for nine months and then poof.


More like an ambulance chaser.
Red Pear Realty
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Sponsor
AG
Sponsor Message: We Split Commissions. Full Service Agents in Austin, Bryan-College Station, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio. Red Pear Realty
Funky Winkerbean
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Ignorance and arrogance is a dangerous combination.
Fat Black Swan
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Krugman still fighting the good fight.

Post removed:
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Redstone
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He has admitted that his wife pushed him into an angry partisanship.

SAD

I'm a big fan of Ross Douthat and legit don't think he's ever written anything I didn't agree with to some degree. He also reads some dissident rightists I know for a fact lol
Helicopter Ben
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BusterAg said:

Premium said:

Serious question now, but what could a Republican controlled House and Senate actually do to fix the issue?
STOP. PRINTING. MONEY!!!!

They could threaten a bill to put more oversight on the Fed. The Fed would react to protect their autonomy by changing policies.

STOP.SPENDING.MONEY!!!!

Cut a ton of government spending. There is PLENTY of fat to trim.


This. Well, end the fed entirely but you're close. That is the biggest factor that CDUB98 missed. And I'm in the camp that taxation is theft.

Stop the freaking insane spending! I can guarantee that, at the very least, 90% of govt spending could be eliminated entirely. I remember when a billion was a lot of money. Now it takes a trillion headline to get peoples interest. That is 1000x as much and I'm only 36 years old.

I've joked in the past who would want to make a bet at when the first announcement of quadrillion dollar proposal would occur. At the rate we're going, it will be sooner than even I could have expected.



Fat Black Swan
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You know who else was concerned about inflation? Literally Hitler.

pagerman @ work
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Que Te Gusta Mas said:

You know who else was concerned about inflation? Literally Hitler.


japantiger
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Que Te Gusta Mas said:

You know who else was concerned about inflation? Literally Hitler.


Damn, that Hitler was on top of everything.
“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”
Joseph Heller, Catch 22
Ag with kids
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Redstone
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So long as TexAgs exists, and pending the grace of Staff:

This thread shall endure.

Why?

Because inflation is not only extremely obvious, now and also at original posting, and obviously extremely bad …

This is a new baseline "normal."

Does anyone really believe DC will stop exporting massive truckloads of your dollars to well established criminals such as Ukrainian "leadership?" Literally the most corrupt country in Europe?

Does anyone really believe they won't continue to set massive pallets of your cash on fire through all manner of stupidity?

Of course they will.

This thread belongs to me, and I will never abandon it.
Fat Black Swan
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Get Off My Lawn
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Q: if fractional reserve banking is part of how the supply of $ in the economy explodes - wouldn't an increase in reserve requirements (say 10% increases to 20%) be a reasonable lever to suck some of the extra currency out of circulation?

(I get that the politicians and bankers are in bed so they wouldn't even talk about doing this, but if fractional reserve multiplies the impact of printed money, and that genie is out of the bottle, then seems like reducing the multiplicative element would be a good place to start.)
Redstone
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Ready for Thanksgiving?
Family, friends, massive price spikes?

https://www.npr.org/2022/11/10/1135142988/economy-inflation-cpi-october-thanksgiving-prices-food-debt-creditcards
Fat Black Swan
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Fat Black Swan
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Rapier108
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Solution to inflation is to eat bugs.


TRADUCTOR
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richardag
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Rapier108 said:

Solution to inflation is to eat bugs.


I vote those advocating this start with live fire ants.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
waitwhat?
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It's the last day of 2022 and inflation is still a problem. Can OP give us a 2023 outlook? Will it prove to be transitory by 2024?
" 'People that read with pictures think that it's simply about a mask' - Dana Loesch" - Ban Cow Gas

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Big Tech IS the empire of lies

TEXIT
Kansas Kid
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waitwhat? said:

It's the last day of 2022 and inflation is still a problem. Can OP give us a 2023 outlook? Will it prove to be transitory by 2024?
No, he can't. He hasn't posted since March because he came to realize he could no longer afford his internet service due to inflation.
Helicopter Ben
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waitwhat? said:

It's the last day of 2022 and inflation is still a problem. Can OP give us a 2023 outlook? Will it prove to be transitory by 2024?

Here is your 2023 outlook:

Inflation will persist through all of 2023. It may not ratchet up much higher…yet. The FED has managed to place one more triangle on the house of cards. It may not be the next or the one after that, but at some point it will come down. We will see more business closures and wages will continue to fall in real terms. Stagflation is the order of the foreseeable future.

At some point, soon, the fed will be faced with the decision to reverse course or allow it all to come down. I believe they will cave and money printer will go brrr again. As inflation decimates any remaining savings, prices for things you don't need (or can't afford) will come down while all the things you do need will steadily rise.

The ONLY thing that will fix this is politically unthinkable. Massive cuts to government and drastic reduction of taxes. Return to sound money and no more looting of the middle class. This will not happen. It will likely do more of the same. As things get worse, government will become more and more desperate. The warning signs of this will be progressively crazier ideas for how to fix this. Once price controls and wealth taxes or helicopter money start being seriously discussed, then we will know the game is almost over.

I am betting heavily in inflation hedges, self reliance, and resilience. I personally have no faith in our government and expect to be largely on my own and within my small town community. In other words, it's going to get MUCH worse.

Happy new year!


Ulysses90
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Kansas Kid said:

waitwhat? said:

It's the last day of 2022 and inflation is still a problem. Can OP give us a 2023 outlook? Will it prove to be transitory by 2024?
No, he can't. He hasn't posted since March because he came to realize he could no longer afford his internet service due to inflation.


"Old Ag 2020" lectures on economics from the august lived experience of one who was in pre-school when the dotcom bubble burst.
BigRobSA
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Always good to see economic dip****tery pointed out, laughed at and ridiculed.
Helicopter Ben
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BigRobSA said:

Always good to see economic dip****tery pointed out, laughed at and ridiculed.

While I agree with you, the time for that is long over. The destruction continues unabated. We will get one more chance in 2024 to steer into the ditch rather than off the cliff. Unfortunately, I think that is a long shot and we may not even have that much time. It's time to take matters into your own hands and prepare yourself. I have very little faith that our government will correct course. We won't be laughing much longer. All we will have is the "I told you so." And even that won't be satisfying because the morons who brought us here will still refuse to listen.
Redstone
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December 1998. The most recent spring was the last time it was "easy" to gain entrance to the Mays Business School as an 18 year old.

I transferred out, and am still Facebook friends with the advisor who filled out the form.

I need a Mays graduate to explain to me economics…..like the OP. What is going on? He was so confident. Why have I been abandoned?
cevans_40
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Every time this thread is bumped, I check to make sure and laugh that some goober burned an account with this gem of economic illiteracy.
YouBet
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Helicopter Ben said:

waitwhat? said:

It's the last day of 2022 and inflation is still a problem. Can OP give us a 2023 outlook? Will it prove to be transitory by 2024?

Here is your 2023 outlook:

Inflation will persist through all of 2023. It may not ratchet up much higher…yet. The FED has managed to place one more triangle on the house of cards. It may not be the next or the one after that, but at some point it will come down. We will see more business closures and wages will continue to fall in real terms. Stagflation is the order of the foreseeable future.

At some point, soon, the fed will be faced with the decision to reverse course or allow it all to come down. I believe they will cave and money printer will go brrr again. As inflation decimates any remaining savings, prices for things you don't need (or can't afford) will come down while all the things you do need will steadily rise.

The ONLY thing that will fix this is politically unthinkable. Massive cuts to government and drastic reduction of taxes. Return to sound money and no more looting of the middle class. This will not happen. It will likely do more of the same. As things get worse, government will become more and more desperate. The warning signs of this will be progressively crazier ideas for how to fix this. Once price controls and wealth taxes or helicopter money start being seriously discussed, then we will know the game is almost over.

I am betting heavily in inflation hedges, self reliance, and resilience. I personally have no faith in our government and expect to be largely on my own and within my small town community. In other words, it's going to get MUCH worse.

Happy new year!



Hard to argue against this.
No Spin Ag
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Helicopter Ben said:

BigRobSA said:

Always good to see economic dip****tery pointed out, laughed at and ridiculed.

While I agree with you, the time for that is long over. The destruction continues unabated. We will get one more chance in 2024 to steer into the ditch rather than off the cliff. Unfortunately, I think that is a long shot and we may not even have that much time. It's time to take matters into your own hands and prepare yourself. I have very little faith that our government will correct course. We won't be laughing much longer. All we will have is the "I told you so." And even that won't be satisfying because the morons who brought us here will still refuse to listen.
No one should rely on, hope, or expect the government to do things that will help them live a financially good life. If one's life is altered significantly (i.e., more than the usual ups and downs that happen when a new party gets in the WH), then that person has no one to blame but themselves.

People should take personal responsibility for caring for themselves, not expecting the government to be there for them. It sucks, but if anyone's been paying attention for the past few administrations, this should be obvious.
BigRobSA
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No Spin Ag said:

Helicopter Ben said:

BigRobSA said:

Always good to see economic dip****tery pointed out, laughed at and ridiculed.

While I agree with you, the time for that is long over. The destruction continues unabated. We will get one more chance in 2024 to steer into the ditch rather than off the cliff. Unfortunately, I think that is a long shot and we may not even have that much time. It's time to take matters into your own hands and prepare yourself. I have very little faith that our government will correct course. We won't be laughing much longer. All we will have is the "I told you so." And even that won't be satisfying because the morons who brought us here will still refuse to listen.
No one should rely on, hope, or expect the government to do things that will help them live a financially good life. If one's life is altered significantly (i.e., more than the usual ups and downs that happen when a new party gets in the WH), then that person has no one to blame but themselves.

People should take personal responsibility for caring for themselves, not expecting the government to be there for them. It sucks, but if anyone's been paying attention for the past few administrations, this should be obvious.


Exactly why you NEVER vote Democrat.
"The Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution was never designed to restrain the people. It was designed to restrain the government."
_mpaul
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No Spin Ag said:


People should take personal responsibility for caring for themselves, not expecting the government to be there for them. It sucks, but if anyone's been paying attention for the past few administrations 250 years, this should be obvious.
FIFY
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e=mc2
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What a smug dunce the OP is. Like all liberals.
Helicopter Ben
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No Spin Ag said:

No one should rely on, hope, or expect the government to do things that will help them live a financially good life. If one's life is altered significantly (i.e., more than the usual ups and downs that happen when a new party gets in the WH), then that person has no one to blame but themselves.

People should take personal responsibility for caring for themselves, not expecting the government to be there for them. It sucks, but if anyone's been paying attention for the past few administrations, this should be obvious.

That's not at all what I was implying. All I want is the government to leave me alone. It's denying reality to say that it's all personal responsibility. The government takes so damn much from us it's sickening. And to act like that has little or no impact is delusional. They have so much control over us now that it's damn near impossible to fight back.

My business was nearly ruined by the government's reaction to Covid. We've been in business for almost ten years, growing every single year. When the Covid response came (in Texas of all places) my business took a nosedive and we never fully recovered. It cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars. An entire thriving business decimated by one idiotic intervention by the government. The government (state and federal) and my employees made more money off of MY business than I did ever since the pandemic response. A lot more.

We are supposed to be a free country yet we must get permission for damn near everything. More than half my income has been taken from me and my family for nothing that I value. I want sound money but the government decrees with a stroke of a pen that it shall be backed by nothing and that they can increase its supply whenever they want. Adding to that of course, that I don't get an equitable amount, or really any, of the increase. I pay taxes on property that I supposedly "own."

All I want, desperately, is to be left alone. To reap the rewards or suffer the consequences of my own decisions and actions. I will never ask for a bailout. If I screw up then I'll take the hit. On the other hand, if I succeed, all I want is the rewards to go to me and my own. That is NOT the country we live in. And the government very much does impact this. As much as I hate it, this is the reality.
ProgN
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Great post
 
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