Looks like some version of Keynesian sorcery.Señor Chang said:Quote:
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
What the **** is this? I hope our economics program isn't teaching kids this garbage. OP is a gigantic dumbass.
The reason we should not be concerned about inflation
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Last: 1 mo ago by Helicopter Ben
Ugh - hard times comin' - oh well, it was good while it lasted.
Redstone said:
Does anyone here wish to contest that ALL government measurements of inflation significantly undercount the reality since 2020?
Please do. I actually have some time today.
I'd contest your statement because government has been manipulating inflation and jobs numbers long before 2020.
Oldag2020 said:
Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
This here is the Kelly McGillis of posts.
This is wrong. It paints the picture that this post was ever good looking to begin with.Tramp96 said:Oldag2020 said:
Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
This here is the Kelly McGillis of posts.
This is more like the Michael Moore of posts.
Real hard times as we slip into a depression.Whirligigs said:
Ugh - hard times comin' - oh well, it was good while it lasted.
Meanwhile Biden's lying admin says a recession 'not an inevitable outcome for 2023'. Except we're in one in mid-2022.
Posters and lurkers:
Although this point is extremely obvious, it should now be indisputable that massive money printing sprees are directly correlated with inflation.
A word especially to undergraduates at Mays reading my words:
THIS IS REAL. IT IS ECONOMIC REALITY.
Therefore, if you professor says otherwise?
WRONG.
Although this point is extremely obvious, it should now be indisputable that massive money printing sprees are directly correlated with inflation.
A word especially to undergraduates at Mays reading my words:
THIS IS REAL. IT IS ECONOMIC REALITY.
Therefore, if you professor says otherwise?
WRONG.
Look, in galactic terms, stars and planets are temporary and transitory. In just a few billion years our sun and solar system will be recycled as part of a stellar nursery and birth new systems out of stardust. YOY CPI numbers are just a speck of time in comparison.
I'm sure OP was just thinking about that.
I'm sure OP was just thinking about that.
hErP a DeRp
Holy cow.. is this guy still around
Oh, hey there.
Tramp96 said:Oldag2020 said:
Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
This here is the Kelly McGillis of posts.
There's an ugly tree then there's a Kelly McGillis tree.
I'd love to know the 12 idiots that starred his OP.
HarryJ33tamu said:
Holy cow.. is this guy still around
Some speculate that he is the idiot Neehau, but there's no real proof.
Assuming he is not Neehau, then the guy basically tucked his tail and never came back.
I'd personally like to kick them in their FUPA.ProgN said:
I'd love to know the 12 idiots that starred his OP.
ProgN said:
I'd love to know the 12 idiots that starred his OP.
I'm guessing a few of his socks, some other CM trolls, and two sane people who got drunk and starred it by accident
IslanderAg04 said:Tramp96 said:Oldag2020 said:
Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
This here is the Kelly McGillis of posts.
There's an ugly tree then there's a Kelly McGillis tree.
I don't want to bully a 60 year old woman but has there been another Hollywood star who aged so poorly?
even fat Liz Taylor was still decent
It's amazing that none of them have gone back and unstarred it. Actually, it's not.Decay said:ProgN said:
I'd love to know the 12 idiots that starred his OP.
I'm guessing a few of his socks, some other CM trolls, and two sane people who got drunk and starred it by accident
Nailed it.Tom Kazansky 2012 said:LMCane said:
does OldAg miraculously appear in August when the inflation rate is 8.9%..
crowing about how "inflation has peaked and is now coming down to Biden's wonderful statecraft!"
I heard a good guess that I too am hitching my wagon to. We aren't governed by rational people in this country.
We see inflation soar well into September and then we see rates lower and spending start getting even more stupid around October because "we have to get the economy stimulated" will be crowed by this admin.
Gird your loins. Next year and the year after are going to have a reckoning the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time.
Biden Admin Senior Gaslighter @BrianDeeseNEC on the worst inflation in 100 years: "More urgency than ever to pass" new spending bills pic.twitter.com/v48nkEcLCY
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) July 13, 2022
Oldag2020 said:
Inflation is beginning to slow - and will continue to slow over the next several months.
Lesson learned - An Increase in spending does not lead to an increase in long term inflation.
Everyone will expect the $1T infrastructure bill to increase inflation. Guess what? It won't. We will, however, grow faster than ever.
There are many bright days ahead here in America. We should all be extremely bullish.
Tramp96 said:Oldag2020 said:
Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
This here is the Kelly McGillis of posts.
Great analogy but I would argue this post started out like this.
Now the real estate bubble is starting to/in the process of popping.Oldag2020 said:
3 weeks ago I would have said inflation was higher for longer than expected, but it would still decrease to approximately 3% over the next several months.
However, the Ukrainian invasion has dramatically changed my opinion. There is real reason to be extremely concerned about inflation and a potential recession. The fed is going to be forced to raise interest rates dramatically to slow the inflation (which is still in my opinion caused by supply chain disruptions). Our risk of recession is going to increase dramatically when interest rates rise.
Stagflation is becoming a legitimate issue and I'm afraid this isn't going to be pretty.
Invest in real estate. Invest in treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS). Especially if close to retirement. Get a good financial advisor if you don't have one. Ensure you're properly allocated.
Any other good ideas/insights you might have to share with us?
That dude conflating all kinds of stuff. The semi-conductor issue is not an inflation issue - it's a national security issue. We have to build more here because we otherwise are dependent upon one country that is a target of China. It also doesn't necessarily mean that it brings the price way down. It's going to cost more to build them here than elsewhere because we will pay more to get it done.Tom Kazansky 2012 said:Nailed it.Tom Kazansky 2012 said:LMCane said:
does OldAg miraculously appear in August when the inflation rate is 8.9%..
crowing about how "inflation has peaked and is now coming down to Biden's wonderful statecraft!"
I heard a good guess that I too am hitching my wagon to. We aren't governed by rational people in this country.
We see inflation soar well into September and then we see rates lower and spending start getting even more stupid around October because "we have to get the economy stimulated" will be crowed by this admin.
Gird your loins. Next year and the year after are going to have a reckoning the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time.Biden Admin Senior Gaslighter @BrianDeeseNEC on the worst inflation in 100 years: "More urgency than ever to pass" new spending bills pic.twitter.com/v48nkEcLCY
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) July 13, 2022
Decay said:ProgN said:
I'd love to know the 12 idiots that starred his OP.
I'm guessing… people who got drunk and starred it by accident
Right here
Yesterday:
CPI scare
CPI government lies....as detailed here.
TODAY??
Producer Prices
Now, what is happening?
This is the 27th straight month of MoM increases in producer prices.
Yes, 27.
The pipeline of price increases....BY LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE INDICATOR
GIGANTIC
Who could have predicated this 2 years ago?
Oh, literally anyone with a single shred of economic sense?
Huh.
CPI scare
CPI government lies....as detailed here.
TODAY??
Producer Prices
Now, what is happening?
This is the 27th straight month of MoM increases in producer prices.
Yes, 27.
The pipeline of price increases....BY LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE INDICATOR
GIGANTIC
Who could have predicated this 2 years ago?
Oh, literally anyone with a single shred of economic sense?
Huh.
Late summer summary:
Consumer prices rose 8.5 percent year over year in July.
Federal Reserve's preferred index is up 6.8 percent and, food and energy excluded, consumer prices are up 5.9 percent.
Consumer prices rose 8.5 percent year over year in July.
Federal Reserve's preferred index is up 6.8 percent and, food and energy excluded, consumer prices are up 5.9 percent.
Is it that time of the month already??
This thread is ****ing epic. The OP and whoever starred the post are textbook definitions of "******".
Jack Ruby said:
This thread is ****ing epic. The OP and whoever starred the post are textbook definitions of "******".
Right? This thread is the gift that keeps on giving. Up there with "two teas"
I would have enjoyed if she would have made a cameo with Cruise in "Top Gun II" and watch him get on his motorcycle and run for the hills.IslanderAg04 said:Tramp96 said:Oldag2020 said:
Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
This here is the Kelly McGillis of posts.
There's an ugly tree then there's a Kelly McGillis tree.
OP is so not aware; the Mandela effect took him out. He is still posting in another quantum timeline where he is heralded on this thread.
That or obviously just too embarrassed to post rebuttal.
That or obviously just too embarrassed to post rebuttal.
Wow. This was a real post?Oldag2020 said:
Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.
Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.
Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.
It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.
In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.
I would argue that they are fully rational. Their goal is to crash the system so they can "build back better."
The only catch is that the BBB is a euphemism for total authoritarian control through tools like ESG, CBDC, and 200k IRS agents. On top of this, it appears they are moving much of our military equipment out to Ukraine, and it would take upwards of 5 years to replace.
The only catch is that the BBB is a euphemism for total authoritarian control through tools like ESG, CBDC, and 200k IRS agents. On top of this, it appears they are moving much of our military equipment out to Ukraine, and it would take upwards of 5 years to replace.
While written in June 2022, percentages are still pretty close. Those that scream this is all about money printing are incorrect. Currenty, this is mainly a SUPPLY side issue unless you have verifiable proof it is something else. I would like to see it.
San Francisco Fed Research Department - How Much Do Supply and Deman Drive Inflation
San Francisco Fed Research Department - How Much Do Supply and Deman Drive Inflation