The reason we should not be concerned about inflation

108,160 Views | 916 Replies | Last: 13 days ago by Helicopter Ben
OKC~Ag
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well, to play the devil's advocate, even the feds was saying inflation was "transient" 6 month ago...so
OP is just parroting the feds...

but in real world, we knew thing weren't just right even back than like near doubling of housing all over the place, dfw, austin and such...
Tom Kazansky 2012
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mazag08 said:

Modern monetary policy failed. Real world economics won. Milton Friedman was right and you, your idiot coworkers and bosses who employ you, Yellen, the fed chairs who you think are holy and untouchable, and all the Marxists who believe the same crap as you were wrong. 100% wrong. Not even in the same ballpark. You didn't defeat inflation. Economics defeated you.

Thanks for coming back. But until you admit just how incredibly wrong you are without blaming it on Russia, I have zero respect for you and idiocy that people like you have plagued our once great country with.
American Hardwood
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Oldag2020 said:

No.


Weird, because you sound like him. Blaming everything on the Russians and all.
ProgN
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OKC~Ag said:

well, to play the devil's advocate, even the feds was saying inflation was "transient" 6 month ago...so
OP is just parroting the feds...

but in real world, we knew thing weren't just right even back than like near doubling of housing all over the place, dfw, austin and such...
It wasn't the topic it was his tone. His OP and subsequent posts were condescending and arrogant. He came across as lecturing us olds about how wrong we are and MMT is the way. If he'd not been an ass, then this thread would've died a longtime ago.
BusterAg
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Oldag2020 said:

3 weeks ago I would have said inflation was higher for longer than expected, but it would still decrease to approximately 3% over the next several months.

However, the Ukrainian invasion has dramatically changed my opinion. There is real reason to be extremely concerned about inflation and a potential recession. The fed is going to be forced to raise interest rates dramatically to slow the inflation (which is still in my opinion caused by supply chain disruptions). Our risk of recession is going to increase dramatically when interest rates rise.

Stagflation is becoming a legitimate issue and I'm afraid this isn't going to be pretty.

Invest in real estate. Invest in treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS). Especially if close to retirement. Get a good financial advisor if you don't have one. Ensure you're properly allocated.


Zero percent of this inflation has anything at all to do with Ukraine.

This is like blaming Obama for A&M losing a football game.
flashplayer
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OKC~Ag said:

well, to play the devil's advocate, even the feds was saying inflation was "transient" 6 month ago...so
OP is just parroting the feds...

but in real world, we knew thing weren't just right even back than like near doubling of housing all over the place, dfw, austin and such...


I think we can separate Texas real estate inflation from national. The Texas real estate market is experiencing a supply shortage amid heavy demand, along with inflation caused by out of state buyers playing with Commiefornia Monopoly money.

I don't think most of the outrageous real estate prices here are too far out of step with where they should be under the above circumstances.

But just about everything else is going to get hit hard. Real estate will possibly dip a little if the economy tanks, but not to the extent that everything else will unless Texas sees a mass outflow of people, which is as likely as Biden putting together a coherent thought.
Trucker 96
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Señor Chang said:

So you've been absolutely dead ass wrong about everything for at least the last 9 months, but you're still here offering people advice?



Unbelievable, right? And now blaming Ukraine
TRADUCTOR
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mazag08 said:

Modern monetary policy failed. Real world economics won. Milton Friedman was right and you, your idiot coworkers and bosses who employ you, Yellen, the fed chairs who you think are holy and untouchable, and all the Marxists who believe the same crap as you were wrong. 100% wrong. Not even in the same ballpark. You didn't defeat inflation. Economics defeated you.

Thanks for coming back. But until you admit just how incredibly wrong you are without blaming it on Russia, I have zero respect for you and idiocy that people like you have plagued our once great country with.


Dramatically blaming RUSSIA needs a dramatic admission is my vote.

Just think how bad off we would be if Americans did not do that propensity 20% saving of income. lol
https://bit.ly/1xWf863
$30,000 Millionaire
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I love that the B&I players came here to dunk.
Redstone
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Thread will achieve legendary status, exactly as I've written on earlier pages.
jac4
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Is Lot Y the OP?
YouBet
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Oldag2020 said:

3 weeks ago I would have said inflation was higher for longer than expected, but it would still decrease to approximately 3% over the next several months.

However, the Ukrainian invasion has dramatically changed my opinion. There is real reason to be extremely concerned about inflation and a potential recession. The fed is going to be forced to raise interest rates dramatically to slow the inflation (which is still in my opinion caused by supply chain disruptions). Our risk of recession is going to increase dramatically when interest rates rise.

Stagflation is becoming a legitimate issue and I'm afraid this isn't going to be pretty.

Invest in real estate. Invest in treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS). Especially if close to retirement. Get a good financial advisor if you don't have one. Ensure you're properly allocated.
So, all of the extra money printed had no impact on inflation?
TxAgPreacher
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S
Great bump.
TxAgPreacher
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S
Oldag2020 said:

Can someone please explain to me:

Why has the dollar increased in value compared to foreign currencies in the last year?

Answer - all countries are racing to debase their currencies. Many are debasing faster than we are. We MUST spend to deflate the dollar so that we can INCREASE exports thereby growing the US economy. If we were to stop spending, we would lose global competitiveness.


You should quit while you're behind.
Helicopter Ben
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TxAgPreacher said:

Oldag2020 said:

Can someone please explain to me:

Why has the dollar increased in value compared to foreign currencies in the last year?

Answer - all countries are racing to debase their currencies. Many are debasing faster than we are. We MUST spend to deflate the dollar so that we can INCREASE exports thereby growing the US economy. If we were to stop spending, we would lose global competitiveness.


You should quit while you're behind.

That's a whopper of a quote. I'm curious if OP still believes in that. To make it easier, I've got a fill in the blank exercise for OP:

"More money chasing fewer and fewer goods will cause prices to________."
numetalbizkitaggie
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OP really looked at this graph and said everything is fine.
YouBet
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numetalbizkitaggie said:



OP really looked at this graph and said everything is fine.
Maybe OP is an analyst at Goldman Sachs. They have access to same graph and are surprised we have high inflation. That would actually make sense because I've heard an older, wiser pundit comment on the fact that most of the big firms don't understand inflation because most of the people in the trenches there are in their 20s and 30s. They have never seen inflation and have no idea how to recognize it.
FCBlitz
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Even the Titanic once floated….why worry?
Picard
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Oldag2020 said:

Invest in treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

Deputy Travis Junior
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Oldag2020 said:

3 weeks ago I would have said inflation was higher for longer than expected, but it would still decrease to approximately 3% over the next several months.



This arrogance blows my freaking mind. Whatever forecasting methodology you were using was proven to be unequivocally and catastrophically wrong for nearly a year before Putin ever moved troops to the Ukraine border. Yet you were continuing to rely on this laughable model and what it protected for the near term right up until geopolitical events dramatically changed. That's weapons grade dumb.

As for your OP a year later: Obviously pent up demand and supply chain issues contributed to inflation, but the rapid expansion of the money supply and 0% rates and ridiculous spending contributed a massive amount too (and if not for Machin, the first and third would be even more out of control). Even Larry freaking Summers was screaming this a year ago, and he isn't exactly a right wing guy.

The smartest guys in the room were exposed as MMT morons who doubled down in the face of overwhelming evidence. Now the rest of us will pay the price.
LMCane
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Fore Left! said:

Señor Chang said:

So you've been absolutely dead ass wrong about everything for at least the last 9 months, but you're still here offering people advice?



Unbelievable, right? And now blaming Ukraine
21 months of rising PPI numbers.

18 days of Putin's invasion.

only a member of the Biden Administration could be so idiotic to believe these two statistics are correlated.
Fat Black Swan
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Oldag2020 said:

3 weeks ago I would have said inflation was higher for longer than expected, but it would still decrease to approximately 3% over the next several months.

However, the Ukrainian invasion has dramatically changed my opinion. There is real reason to be extremely concerned about inflation and a potential recession. The fed is going to be forced to raise interest rates dramatically to slow the inflation (which is still in my opinion caused by supply chain disruptions). Our risk of recession is going to increase dramatically when interest rates rise.

Stagflation is becoming a legitimate issue and I'm afraid this isn't going to be pretty.

Invest in real estate. Invest in treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS). Especially if close to retirement. Get a good financial advisor if you don't have one. Ensure you're properly allocated.


VegasAg86
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Oldag2020 said:

Helicopter Ben said:

Look man, I like that you're discussing this topic. Not enough people care about these issues and I think this is the single biggest problem we are facing today. Of course, it's all caused by too much government. Giving government control of the money supply is what allowed it to metastasize to the destructive monster it currently is.

But the problem is that "what you know, just aint so."

I'm going to stop beating around the bush and state it plainly. Keynesian thinking is WRONG.

Please be honest here. Have you read ANY opposing viewpoints from Austrian or supply-side economists? People like Hayek, Mises, or Rothbard?

If you read a few books or essays from any of those guys and still think the same way, I'll have to believe you're trolling.


I'm about half way through Mises book theory of money and credit. I have debated in the margin about 300+ statements that I completely disagree with.
Your mission should be to figure out why he is right and you are wrong. I'll guarantee you are wrong the vast majority of the time.
ProgN
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Consumer prices rose 8.5% in March, slightly hotter than expected and the highest since 1981 (cnbc.com)
Quote:

Prices that consumers pay for everyday items surged in March to their highest levels since the early days of the Reagan administration, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which measures a wide-ranging basket of goods and services, jumped 8.5% from a year ago on an unadjusted basis, above even the already elevated Dow Jones estimate for 8.4%.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI increased 6.5%, in line with the expectation.

The data reflected price rises not seen in the U.S. since the stagflation days of the late 1970s and early '80s. March's headline reading in fact was the highest since December 1981. Core inflation was the hottest since August 1982.

However, core inflation appeared to be ebbing, rising 0.3% for the month, less than the 0.5% estimate.
Just updating our journey through this "transitory" wasteland.
ProgN
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mulch
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Why is it so damn difficult for people to admit they were wrong?

oh no
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mulch said:

Why is it so damn difficult for people to admit they were wrong?


clearly because they already know that they're so much smarter than everyone else, they can't be wrong- they tell themselves they were always right at the time but the situation is fluid, circumstances changed, etc. Just ask anyone on the east or left coast - they've never been wrong about anything because they're smarter than you. How dare you question them or try to make them recognize or admit their idiocy. Lowly plebes should not be allowed to question or call out their NYC finance superiors.
ProgN
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I suspect he bought into MMT that he's been taught by professors that could never run a successful business in the real world. It's tough when your religion becomes indefensible.
LMCane
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Oldag2020 said:

Demand is temporarily outpacing our production(supply). Due to covid shut downs and supply chain disruptions. Ex. Lumber prices were inflated, now they are correcting themselves.

Once our supply chains are back up to full capacity, the added demand created by the stimulus will not cause long lasting inflation.

Our productive capacity is so high, in fact, I believe our biggest fear should be deflation, not inflation. Our productivity growth is not disappearing any time soon. The inputs to production are 1. Technological advancements and 2. Increase in labor force. Our computing power doubles every 18 months. Clearly this growth will not disappear.

It's no accident that we have continued to spend more and more throughout the last several decades with little to zero long term negative consequences.

In fact, the fed has struggled the last decade to maintain their inflation level goal of 2%. This even Despite massive spending in 2008 and artificially low interest rates.


Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5

This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.

Be sure to allocate portfolios accordingly.

10 months ago and still genius.

since your last bit of advice was so lucrative, how should I be allocating my portfolio today?
zooguy96
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Plays Monopoly... thinks they know economics...

This is all on the democRats. They've got their hands all over it.
wbt5845
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Oldag2020 said:

Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
IslanderAg04
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We should sticky this just to show how terribly wrong op was.
TRADUCTOR
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If he meant that lumber supply is correcting itself to a $16 2x4 then what we have here is an economic Nostradamus posting here!
Fat Black Swan
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pacecar02
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Do the OP have a football newsletter I can sign up for?

TIA
 
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