So when is AZ going to stop counting? That's gotta be next right?

crowman2010 said:

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Zombie Jon Snow said:

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policywonk98 said:

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cobizzle said:

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Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

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https://redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/11/04/i-stayed-up-to-track-the-election-returns-so-you-wouldnt-have-to-heres-my-report-n274813

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That sounds great and all, but the explanations lack the detail needed to convince me Trump can retake Wisconsin and Michigan. Especially if most of their remaining votes are absentee, which I'm not sure of.

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He doesn't give Wisconsin to Trump in his Tally. He leaves it undecided. AZ and NV also not in the tally.

He's saying Trump wins without WI, AZ, and NV by winning MI and PA.

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WI is done and gone. He needs MI, PA, NC and GA.

Anything less and he loses.

Cuz even getting AZ or NV won't offset MI for example. Although both would but that is unlikely.

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Wrong. He can get NV, PA, GA and NC to get to 270.

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It's the only path left really

Here's a screenshot from my spread sheet filter to just the races the AP hasn't called yet. Everything is pretty self explanatory but the last column is what percentage of the outstanding vote would have to go to the underdog to flip the current lead. With everything stay exactly the same as right now, I have Biden at 271 and trump at 267 EC votes. It looks to me like this could very well come down to just Nevada/Michigan. The rest would take some pretty significant swings to flip right now. The those two are at almost a coin flip, and I show Biden having to hold onto both to win.

crowman2010 said:

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Zombie Jon Snow said:

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policywonk98 said:

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cobizzle said:

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Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

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https://redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/11/04/i-stayed-up-to-track-the-election-returns-so-you-wouldnt-have-to-heres-my-report-n274813

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That sounds great and all, but the explanations lack the detail needed to convince me Trump can retake Wisconsin and Michigan. Especially if most of their remaining votes are absentee, which I'm not sure of.

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He doesn't give Wisconsin to Trump in his Tally. He leaves it undecided. AZ and NV also not in the tally.

He's saying Trump wins without WI, AZ, and NV by winning MI and PA.

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WI is done and gone. He needs MI, PA, NC and GA.

Anything less and he loses.

Cuz even getting AZ or NV won't offset MI for example. Although both would but that is unlikely.

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Wrong. He can get NV, PA, GA and NC to get to 270.

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I corrected above.....and AK would make 273 actually.

AZ, MI and WI look done now for Biden.

So down to NV, PA, NC, GA, AK and Trump needs all of them.

AggieKeith15 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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The crazy thing is, it looks like he'll lose even after getting Ohio and Florida.

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I hate to say I told you so, but...

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3150966/replies/57758403

Quote:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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bmks270 said:

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texaglurkerguy said:

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1) the 538 model does not claim a Biden win is certain, only that it's likely.

2) all Biden has to do to win the election is defend the 2016 map and flip MI, WI, and PA. If you're going by PredictIt, he's poised to do just that as well as pick up AZ.

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The last candidate to win the election and not win Florida or Ohio was JFK in 1960.

I doubt Biden can win those states without also winning Ohio.

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Correlation != Causation. You've given your own proof that the election can be won without those two states, and as others have pointed out, there is another probable scenario where Biden wins without them.

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You are a miserable troll this morning.

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No, I just tempered my expectations based on uncertainty and looked at reality instead of relying on confirmation bias.

Biden only up 9k now in Michigan. Still possible, but I'm not holding out hope.

Paradise Ag said:

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BoxingAg84 said:

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Biden is going to win when the votes are counted. Everyone knows what. Trump knows it too. That's why he's already talking about going to the Supreme Court. A majority of the votes out overwhelming favor Biden. Once Michigan and Wisconsin update their numbers tomorrow, it's gonna be lights out for Trump.

The reality is that it doesn't matter now because Mitch will still control the Senate. I'd rather have a dem house and senate with Trump than Mitch still running the Senate. Nothing will get done and Biden won't be able to reverse all the damage Trump has done.

GOP's gamble on Trump paid off whether Biden wins or not at this point.

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So when are they going to count these votes? Tonight seems like a good time to knock it out. If it's so simple why quit?

Maybe it's not so simple and a few more votes have to be "discovered" so your man Joe can win. Nothing else makes rational sense.

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MI, WI, and PA'S Republican legislatures prevented election officials from beginning to count tens of millions of absentee ballots until election day, not before.

Pinche Abogado said:

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I will not accept Joe Biden as President.

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#notmypresident, huh?

Zombie Jon Snow said:

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crowman2010 said:

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Zombie Jon Snow said:

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policywonk98 said:

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cobizzle said:

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Tom Kazansky 2012 said:

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https://redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/11/04/i-stayed-up-to-track-the-election-returns-so-you-wouldnt-have-to-heres-my-report-n274813

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That sounds great and all, but the explanations lack the detail needed to convince me Trump can retake Wisconsin and Michigan. Especially if most of their remaining votes are absentee, which I'm not sure of.

---

He doesn't give Wisconsin to Trump in his Tally. He leaves it undecided. AZ and NV also not in the tally.

He's saying Trump wins without WI, AZ, and NV by winning MI and PA.

---

WI is done and gone. He needs MI, PA, NC and GA.

Anything less and he loses.

Cuz even getting AZ or NV won't offset MI for example. Although both would but that is unlikely.

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Wrong. He can get NV, PA, GA and NC to get to 270.

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I corrected above.....and AK would make 273 actually.

AZ, MI and WI look done now for Biden.

So down to NV, PA, NC, GA, AK and Trump needs all of them.

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MI is far from done. That one will be decided in a court room

BlackGoldAg2011 said:

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Here's a screenshot from my spread sheet filter to just the races the AP hasn't called yet. Everything is pretty self explanatory but the last column is what percentage of the outstanding vote would have to go to the underdog to flip the current lead. With everything stay exactly the same as right now, I have Biden at 271 and trump at 267 EC votes. It looks to me like this could very well come down to just Nevada/Michigan. The rest would take some pretty significant swings to flip right now. The those two are at almost a coin flip, and I show Biden having to hold onto both to win.

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So Trump would have to flip NV there and not let PA, GA, NC flip.

Or flip MI or WI but that seems unlikely.

I thought NC is done?

will25u said:

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This would be interesting...

Looks like they counted just enough votes in WI and MI to put Biden up. And then they all went back to bed.

ABATTBQ11 said:

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I thought NC is done?

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this is 2020, I wouldnt even say Texas is secure at this point

ABATTBQ11 said:

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I thought NC is done?

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I think so but CNN, Fox, NYT have it undecided.

What takes so long in NV?

OKCAg2002 said:

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What takes so long in NV?

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They've stopped reporting

Foamcows said:

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ABATTBQ11 said:

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I thought NC is done?

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this is 2020, I wouldnt even say Texas is secure at this point

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Their state board of elections website shows 100% of precincts reporting.

OKCAg2002 said:

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What takes so long in NV?

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Printing more ballots to forge...

Zombie Jon Snow said:

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OKCAg2002 said:

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What takes so long in NV?

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everyone there has 3 jobs....

casino job, uber driver and pollster

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This gave me a chuckle, thanks!

misterguinness said:

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Zombie Jon Snow said:

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OKCAg2002 said:

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What takes so long in NV?

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everyone there has 3 jobs....

casino job, uber driver and pollster

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This gave me a chuckle, thanks!

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and strippers.

AgResearch said:

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will25u said:

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This would be interesting...

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Would be huge.

Huh

Just an Ag said:

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So a 120K shift, assuming Biden does not get another single vote?

With >98% reporting in?

How? Seriously. How? I am genuinely curious.

Just an Ag said:

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This doesn't make any sense with 98% reporting

What a ****ing joke of an election

Basically, I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah but they are still able to count ballots postmarked on Election Day about 7 days after.

Who knows how many votes will magically appear over the next few days with those late night mail rooms being opened!

On a side note, the USPS office near where I lived in Wake County had hours of operation from 9-4.

will25u said:

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Mail in ballots have yet to be counted in a lot of those areas.