Legal Custodian said:

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I'm starting to get worried about Florida after those Silver tweets. But then I remember who Silver is and feel a tiny bit better

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It's two ways of looking at limited data.

We see higher republicans edge than 2016 and think that means a bigger win. He says that logic is flawed. We'll see who's right soon.

Florida is going red libs. Better open up the drinks early cause it's going to be a looong night for you.

Thanks, I was worried about Indiana

PJYoung said:

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Rapier108 said:

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The endless parade of socks and Premium only liberals continues unabated.

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I'm a Trump voting conservative who thinks he is going to lose to Biden tonight.

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You'll be pleasantly surprised then...

txags92 said:

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blakegrimez said:

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Polls don't predict turnout. What's so hard to understand about that? I'm also not using democrat or republican numbers for polling. Simply the number of voters who have turned out, their party registration, and then polling data from ONLY independents.

Ex. if you had 100 voters, 30 are R's, 25 are D's, and 45 are I's, and 55% of the I's voted D, then Biden would win.

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Right...and what I am saying is that the R advantage is >200,000 right now in actual turnout. With the turnout ahead of 2016 on the R side, and behind 2016 on the D side, there is zero reason to believe a poll suggesting that independents are going to break +10% to Biden when they were +4% to Trump in 2016. That is a 14% swing and there is no basis for believing it is possible in the numbers out there right now.

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There is basis for it. Marist poll from last week had Biden up 14 points among Indies: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-biden-holds-narrow-lead-florida-n1245190

PJYoung said:

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Rapier108 said:

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The endless parade of socks and Premium only liberals continues unabated.

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I'm a Trump voting conservative who thinks he is going to lose to Biden tonight.

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Wasn't referring to you, but that does not surprise me.

Fox News, "polls closing in battleground Georgia"

Prognightmare said:

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eb93 said:

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Trump won indies last time because folks who didn't like either candidate said, "hell give the businessman a try, he couldn't fo worse than the Clinton-Bush dynasties." Polling earlier this year showed Trump losing big-time to people who don't like both candidates. Trump only focuses on his base. Hasn't done a single thing to bring Indies into the fold. He will pay a price for that tonight.

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Yeah, tax cuts and bringing jobs back to record employment levels didn't help one damn indy.

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No kidding. Heck, Biden and the Democrats practically herded Independents to Trump by encouraging riots and violence and pandering to the criminals that were behind them.

The Debt said:

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JasonD2005 said:

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So we went from "Florida is a bloodbath" to worrying about Florida in two hours?

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People are just reeling from the Dem spin. We have 17 mins until things start to come clear.

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Hopefully no hanging chads

The Maria chick on Fox nailed it. The Market up 2% today told the story. Follow the money baby.

Electionnight.news

blakegrimez said:

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Polls showed Trump winning Independents in Florida in 2016 by 10%. He won them by less. Polls this cycle show Biden winning independents by upwards of 15%.

The same polls that were good for Trump in 2016 with independents are showing him doing much worse with them this cycle.

Even if we give Biden the same error that 2016 had for Trump, he'd still win them by close to 10 points, which RIGHT NOW is more than enough to put him over Trump.

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Not arguing but I just can not see independents fired up to vote for Biden. And I stick to my guns that people vote for a candidate, not against one.

But I am old.

I saw an exit poll from can saying people were most concerned about economy. covid was around third. If that is actually true, Trump will win. But most data heading into election showed covid was the number one issue with voters, and that is lethal for Trump in Florida, and not good nationally. four percent of the world's population, 19 percent of cases, 19 percent of deaths. There's a reason seniors have left Trump in recent months. Super-spreader rallies, including at the white house, saying "don't let it dominate you" when millions have been hospitalized for it and over 230,000 have died, saying the pandemic was solved, fauci/Birx saying we are in crisis: trump can't win on covid. He can win on economy.

President Trump already fitted for the National Championship belt.

All polls will show crosstabs at the very bottom for raw data. They show you how many dems are voting trump, what age they are etc.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_fl_102920.pdf/ This cycle showing Biden winning independents by 14%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_fl_092016.pdf/ 2016 Cycle showing Trump leading independents by 2%

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relfl3.pdf 2016 cycle showing Trump winning independents by 8%

Bloody-Nine said:

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Biden is going to win.

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Are you delayed?

Only one side today has been campaigning desperately, putting out messages about needing more votes (i.e. Ellison in MN), and laying out alternate paths to victory without two key states (FL/PA). This doesn't sound like a campaign that thinks the polls are in their favor nor one that would think independents are breaking for them.

When people vote against a candidate it's usually because They're partisans who don't really like their own candidate.

So 70% of the country.

CreakinDeacon said:

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Biden can't overcome the defection of the Latino vote. They don't want socialism again and most are pro-life. They risked their lives to get away from it.

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Particularly the Latino vote in FLORIDA which is so heavily comprised of Cubans and Venezuelans. Completely different than the Latino vote in California as an example.

I've always thought how ridiculous it was to group such massive cohorts of people into one single category. Like, yeah they have different histories, government systems, climates, races, but hey they all speak Spanish, let's just put them all one big group.

dermdoc said:

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blakegrimez said:

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Polls showed Trump winning Independents in Florida in 2016 by 10%. He won them by less. Polls this cycle show Biden winning independents by upwards of 15%.

The same polls that were good for Trump in 2016 with independents are showing him doing much worse with them this cycle.

Even if we give Biden the same error that 2016 had for Trump, he'd still win them by close to 10 points, which RIGHT NOW is more than enough to put him over Trump.

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Not arguing but I just can not see independents fired up to vote for Biden. And I stick to my guns that people vote for a candidate, not against one.

But I am old.

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you may be old, buy you have a helluva holler from olsen.

eb93 said:

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I saw an exit poll from can saying people were most concerned about economy. covid was around third. If that is actually true, Trump will win. But most data heading into election showed covid was the number one issue with voters, and that is lethal for Trump in Florida, and not good nationally. four percent of the world's population, 19 percent of cases, 19 percent of deaths. There's a reason seniors have left Trump in recent months. Super-spreader rallies, including at the white house, saying "don't let it dominate you" when millions have been hospitalized for it and over 230,000 have died, saying the pandemic was solved, fauci/Birx saying we are in crisis: trump can't win on covid. He can win on economy.

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Many are sick of Covid talk and lockdowns as well and are gravitating to Trump's message of hope vs Biden's dark winter negativity.

4stringAg said:

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eb93 said:

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I saw an exit poll from can saying people were most concerned about economy. covid was around third. If that is actually true, Trump will win. But most data heading into election showed covid was the number one issue with voters, and that is lethal for Trump in Florida, and not good nationally. four percent of the world's population, 19 percent of cases, 19 percent of deaths. There's a reason seniors have left Trump in recent months. Super-spreader rallies, including at the white house, saying "don't let it dominate you" when millions have been hospitalized for it and over 230,000 have died, saying the pandemic was solved, fauci/Birx saying we are in crisis: trump can't win on covid. He can win on economy.

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Many are sick of Covid talk and lockdowns as well and are gravitating to Trump's message of hope vs Biden's dark winter negativity.

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Don't listen to him. He used the term "super spreader event" in a serious manner.

wishing it to be so does not make it so. You can wish in one hand, and crap in the other, and let's see which one fills up first.

Charlie Kelley said:

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4stringAg said:

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eb93 said:

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I saw an exit poll from can saying people were most concerned about economy. covid was around third. If that is actually true, Trump will win. But most data heading into election showed covid was the number one issue with voters, and that is lethal for Trump in Florida, and not good nationally. four percent of the world's population, 19 percent of cases, 19 percent of deaths. There's a reason seniors have left Trump in recent months. Super-spreader rallies, including at the white house, saying "don't let it dominate you" when millions have been hospitalized for it and over 230,000 have died, saying the pandemic was solved, fauci/Birx saying we are in crisis: trump can't win on covid. He can win on economy.

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Many are sick of Covid talk and lockdowns as well and are gravitating to Trump's message of hope vs Biden's dark winter negativity.

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Don't listen to him. He used the term "super spreader event" in a serious manner.

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Trump's message of hope...lol. It's fifteen cases, soon it will be none. It will just miraculously go away.

eb93 said:

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dermdoc said:

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blakegrimez said:

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Polls showed Trump winning Independents in Florida in 2016 by 10%. He won them by less. Polls this cycle show Biden winning independents by upwards of 15%.

The same polls that were good for Trump in 2016 with independents are showing him doing much worse with them this cycle.

Even if we give Biden the same error that 2016 had for Trump, he'd still win them by close to 10 points, which RIGHT NOW is more than enough to put him over Trump.

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Not arguing but I just can not see independents fired up to vote for Biden. And I stick to my guns that people vote for a candidate, not against one.

But I am old.

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you may be old, buy you have a helluva holler from olsen.

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And will be in Columbia SC this Saturday, I love this team.

eb93 said:

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Charlie Kelley said:

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4stringAg said:

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eb93 said:

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I saw an exit poll from can saying people were most concerned about economy. covid was around third. If that is actually true, Trump will win. But most data heading into election showed covid was the number one issue with voters, and that is lethal for Trump in Florida, and not good nationally. four percent of the world's population, 19 percent of cases, 19 percent of deaths. There's a reason seniors have left Trump in recent months. Super-spreader rallies, including at the white house, saying "don't let it dominate you" when millions have been hospitalized for it and over 230,000 have died, saying the pandemic was solved, fauci/Birx saying we are in crisis: trump can't win on covid. He can win on economy.

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Many are sick of Covid talk and lockdowns as well and are gravitating to Trump's message of hope vs Biden's dark winter negativity.

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Don't listen to him. He used the term "super spreader event" in a serious manner.

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Trump's message of hope...lol. It's fifteen cases, soon it will be none. It will just miraculously go away.

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Haha how about a message of you aren't going to die so don't hoard medicine and food?

Hope I can hear your echo the we hit the quarterback.

I'm driving. Who is this idiot on Fox News???
She said her faith drove her to vote for Biden.