EC Map discussion

6,954 Views | 99 Replies | Last: 29 days ago by Sasappis
Sasappis
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All of the talk about the popular vote, national polls, etc. is pointless. At this point I think it is a very simple: There is no way Trump can win without winning Florida, at least one of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.

I think Florida is a Trump win and not really worth dwelling over. If Biden wins Florida there is no chance Trump gets to 270.

I think Trump needs to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania, but I can envision a plausible path with only one of the two. However, only getting one of the two will require winning NC, WI, NV, and IA. There is no room for error if he loses one or the other.

So I think on election night, the four races that will tell us where we are going are all eastern states and we can focus on FL, OH, PA & NC. If he wins all 4, I think he will certainly win AZ to put him over the edge. I also can see a realistic scenario where we end up tied at 269.

Here is the map to make your own. Simply saying Trump wins or Biden wins is not serious discussion.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html

Paradise Ag
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Trump wins.
Iraq2xVeteran
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I want President Donald Trump to win, but Joe Biden has many more paths to 270 electoral votes because of a built-in advantage in electoral votes for Democrats, such as the 55 electoral votes from California. Even if Trump keeps Arizona, Texas, and Georgia red, he will have to win several swing states to win reelection.
FratboyLegend
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Florida doesn't really matter from an outcomes perspective, as it is rather far down the list of marginal states in this election. The 'fulcrum' state in this election is most likely to be one of AZ, WI, MI, or PA (in that order IMO). Those are the ones worth worrying over.

Said another way, if FL or OH flip blue, so many other states have flipped blue that those states themselves don't make the difference.
#CertifiedSIP
DamnGood86
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Biden does not win, seriously.
Gov 2022
aggie93
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Pennsylvania is really the key. I also think if Trump wins PA he wins at least 1 of Wisconsin or Michigan. Those are also the states where Trump has the biggest ground game and basically hasn't stopped going after since he was elected in '16.

Agree though if he loses FL or Ohio he's done, just no way he can win without them. NC would also be very hard to overcome. The interesting thing to me is I think Trump has 3 states he has quietly been building momentum and is now going hard after that it is really too late for a Biden push. Minnesota, Nevada, and even New Mexico.
Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant; it is just that they know so much that isn't so.

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Sasappis
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I'll agree if the loses Ohio it is a sign that the other states have gone blue and the race is over. If Biden wins FL it will not even be close.
aginresearch
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If FL goes Trump so will NC. Ohio is probably 100% Trump at this point. That will leave PA, MI, WI. AZ is a wildcard but I think there is something happening in NV and possibly NM. I'm 100% not convinced about MN.

Edit: to clarify OH's status
Sasappis
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aggie93 said:

Pennsylvania is really the key. I also think if Trump wins PA he wins at least 1 of Wisconsin or Michigan. Those are also the states where Trump has the biggest ground game and basically hasn't stopped going after since he was elected in '16.

Agree though if he loses FL or Ohio he's done, just no way he can win without them. NC would also be very hard to overcome. The interesting thing to me is I think Trump has 3 states he has quietly been building momentum and is now going hard after that it is really too late for a Biden push. Minnesota, Nevada, and even New Mexico.
Michigan to me is a complete crapshoot. If he wins Michigan, he likely wins several others. He could lose Michigan but still win PA and some other toss ups.

I put Nevada in that boat too. I can see him winning there as well, but I can see him winning the EC without NV. I do not know about Minnesota, it is a very hard state to predict especially with all of the turmoil there.


The main reason I think Ohio and Florida are worth keeping an eye on is those are the states where Trump can lose the race. He may not win it if he wins both states, but he certainly loses the EC if Biden wins either FL or OH. If either of those is blue you can call the race when that call is made.

I think PA will be too close to call for most of the 3rd. It may get called late that night, but I could see it getting drug out. If it is called early, one way or the other, I think the winner wins the EC.
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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Michigan. If the people of Michigan want more of Whitler, they will get it with Harris as president. MI will go Trump and seal the deal.
FriscoKid
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Start here. Biden needs a clean sweep of the toss-ups on this map.
This claim about election fraud is helpful.
Gyles Marrett
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FriscoKid said:


Start here. Biden needs a clean sweep of the toss-ups on this map.
Arizona is looking safe. I'd be way more confident to list AZ red than PA like your showing. Mainly based on the cheating that will occur in PA. It will simply come down to winning one of the group of MN, MI, WI, or PA. Trump wins if so. If I had to bet can he bring home 1 of those I'd feel like that's a pretty good odds bet.
txagbear
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FriscoKid said:


Start here. Biden needs a clean sweep of the toss-ups on this map.
So, you don't think Pa is a toss up?
Cactus Jack
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I think Trump will win Florida and Ohio.

If you look at states considered bellweathers, North Carolina is the one to look at early on.

Trump carrying Florida and North Carolina puts the EC race at about 50-50. Winning North Carolina is a good omen for a tight race in Pennsylvania, which is a good omen for a tight race across the rest of the Midwest.

FriscoKid
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txagbear said:

FriscoKid said:


Start here. Biden needs a clean sweep of the toss-ups on this map.
So, you don't think Pa is a toss up?
It got a lot safer after Biden said he would declare war on the O&G industry.
This claim about election fraud is helpful.
BoDog
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That's assuming he wins PA which I have my doubts. Its crazy. I went to bed feeling optimistic and know I have my serious doubts about next Tuesday. Hoping for the best but expecting the worst.
FriscoKid
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OK, then swap PA with AZ....

Biden still needs a clean sweep of the remaining states except for NV.

Biden's path is a lot harder than Trump's.
This claim about election fraud is helpful.
Sasappis
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FriscoKid said:

OK, then swap PA with AZ....

Biden still needs a clean sweep of the remaining states except for NV.

Biden's path is a lot harder than Trump's.
That is still a net negative of 9 EC votes. That means Trump has to pick up two of the other toss ups on your map.

I think that is possible, but it becomes a lot tougher battle.
amercer
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Biden has a lot more ways to get it done. I think he takes PA, and gets Florida by a hair. FL may take a while to recount, but I think it will be irrelevant by the time they do.
Great_I_Am
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amercer said:

Biden has a lot more ways to get it done. I think he takes PA, and gets Florida by a hair. FL may take a while to recount, but I think it will be irrelevant by the time they do.
The early voting numbers in Florida don't support Biden winning.
ReloadAg
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I don't understand some of the projections and analysis on this thread given the data we have to work with at this point (not polls). I think Trump wins FL and NC comfortably as well as MI and WI. PA is a toss up given the likelihood of cheating and I also feel good about AZ. I honestly feel like Trump has a shot at MN and New Mex as well. I see a fairly comfortable MAGA win next week.
FriscoKid
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amercer said:

Biden has a lot more ways to get it done. I think he takes PA, and gets Florida by a hair. FL may take a while to recount, but I think it will be irrelevant by the time they do.
Look, here's the deal.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3148726/replies/57750546
This claim about election fraud is helpful.
NoahAg
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FriscoKid said:


Start here. Biden needs a clean sweep of the toss-ups on this map.
But, but, but, Texas is in play!

LOL

Trump wins. Easily.

*Personal disclaimer: I was a never-Trumper in 2016. There are many like me voting for Trump in 2020.
Mucho austin
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maybe im just missing something, buy why wouldnt Trump win all the states he won in 2016?

If they voted for him then, he hasnt done anything to change those voters minds, and he has done more than enough to bring more over to him.

I held my nose and voted for trump in 2016. A little more push the other way and I would have written in Ted Cruz. Now nothing could have stopped me from voting Trump. If anything, those who did write in someone else or vote 3rd party should have been pushed toward trump, not away.

I see this as a win for trump equal to a greater than 2016 plus the popular vote*



*ignoring fraud.
agsalaska
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aginresearch said:

If FL goes Trump so will NC. Ohio is probably gone for Biden. That will leave PA, MI, WI. AZ is a wildcard but I think there is something happening in NV and possibly NM. I'm 100% not convinced about MN.


What makes you think Biden will win Ohio?

I dont agree with that. Trump will win Ohio by a comfortable margin.
Sasappis
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Mucho austin said:

maybe im just missing something, buy why wouldnt Trump win all the states he won in 2016?

If they voted for him then, he hasnt done anything to change those voters minds, and he has done more than enough to bring more over to him.

I held my nose and voted for trump in 2016. A little more push the other way and I would have written in Ted Cruz. Now nothing could have stopped me from voting Trump. If anything, those who did write in someone else or vote 3rd party should have been pushed toward trump, not away.

I see this as a win for trump equal to a greater than 2016 plus the popular vote*



*ignoring fraud.
Trump is polarizing if you have not noticed. Even more so than in 2016, mainly because his opponent in 16 was polarizing as well.

There are some in the middle voters that have probably been turned off by Trump's constant schtick. There are some in the middle voters that have probably been turned on to Trump by the constant lying and manipulation from the media/left.

It is a question of percentages on which share is the dominant trend. We will find out soon.
rab79
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FriscoKid said:


Start here. Biden needs a clean sweep of the toss-ups on this map.
nice map but NM and NH could be grey as well if AZ and NV are, agree that Penn should probably be grey as well at this point although the O&G issue may be enough to turn Penn pink. If so, O&G should be enough to shift NM as well.
in order for democrats, liberals, progressives et al to continue their illogical belief systems they have to pretend not to know a lot of things' By pretending 'not to know' there is no guilt, no actual connection to conscience. Denial of truth allows easier trespass.
FrioAg 00
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If a Trump takes Penn, I cannot see it as realistic that he'd get swept in the grey states.

If Biden takes Penn, I still think it's possible Trump narrowly takes each of the grey states.
Readzilla
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Trump wins Florida Wisconsin NC and ohio easy. only has to win either Michigan penn or Arizona to win it all. easy win for trump
jrdaustin
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The problem is, I don't think we're going to know the PA outcome on Tuesday if it goes to Trump. Even if Trump has a lead in PA, the MSM won't call it as they will have 3 days to continue to receive mail-in votes.

If Biden has a lead, they'll shout it from the rooftops.
TravelAg2004
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I know everyone likes to poop on 538, but I like the way their election map works.

Essentially, they ran a bunch of simulations of different scenarios and polling. When you pick a state winning, they remove all the simulations where that state went the other way. And then the map updates to likely results based on just that subset of data.

While there's still some big "ifs" in their polling, you can remove some of the noise by picking a state or two you think Trump or Biden is going to win.

So if you say FL is going to Trump, it changes their estimates quite a bit in favor of Trump. If you add NC, they then go from 12/100 to 43/100. Add in PA and it jumps to 89/100.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
Gigem314
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Sasappis said:

Mucho austin said:

maybe im just missing something, buy why wouldnt Trump win all the states he won in 2016?

If they voted for him then, he hasnt done anything to change those voters minds, and he has done more than enough to bring more over to him.

I held my nose and voted for trump in 2016. A little more push the other way and I would have written in Ted Cruz. Now nothing could have stopped me from voting Trump. If anything, those who did write in someone else or vote 3rd party should have been pushed toward trump, not away.

I see this as a win for trump equal to a greater than 2016 plus the popular vote*



*ignoring fraud.
Trump is polarizing if you have not noticed. Even more so than in 2016, mainly because his opponent in 16 was polarizing as well.

There are some in the middle voters that have probably been turned off by Trump's constant schtick. There are some in the middle voters that have probably been turned on to Trump by the constant lying and manipulation from the media/left.

It is a question of percentages on which share is the dominant trend. We will find out soon.
Lots of assumption there.

Trump is a known entity in 2020. Not sure I buy the notion that he's "more polarizing" than 2016. I myself thought he was polarizing in 2016 and voted 3rd party...but am voting Trump this time around and find his personality secondary to the polarizing behavior by the democrats and the media.

Biden is polarizing as well. He doesn't have the enthusiasm of his base. Particularly with youth and minorities. He's embraced polarizing positions like the Green New Deal and court packing. Then of course the big one last week with him coming out against the O&G industry that impacts jobs in many of these battleground states.

Over half the country wanted to the SCOTUS seat filled and the democrats fought to oppose it and are declaring ACB's appointment as immoral. Then of course voters saw the democrats drag the country through impeachment in an election year. You're ignoring a lot of polarizing behavior there.

You're also not acknowledging voters in cities/states impacted heavily by lock-downs and riots that turned them off to their local democrat leadership and are drawn to Trump's 'open it up' and 'law enforcement' positions.

Trump has also added a lot of voters to the rolls these past few years. His ground game is reaching people that hadn't voted in years or never voted before. People can scoff at his rallies, but no President has ever attracted a following like that. At the very least, it shows the Republican base is more motivated than at any point in its history outside of maybe the 1984 Reagan landslide. There are lots of R voters that didn't care enough to support McCain or Romney that would walk through fire to support Trump.
FrioAg 00
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Readzilla said:

Trump wins Florida Wisconsin NC and ohio easy. only has to win either Michigan penn or Arizona to win it all. easy win for trump


Unless you're spotting him Nevada, that's not accurate. Fl, Wisc, NC, Ohio, AZ only gets him to 265, no?
barnyard1996
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aginresearch said:

If FL goes Trump so will NC. Ohio is probably gone for Biden. That will leave PA, MI, WI. AZ is a wildcard but I think there is something happening in NV and possibly NM. I'm 100% not convinced about MN.
OH for Biden?
The TC Jester
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Sasappis said:

Mucho austin said:

maybe im just missing something, buy why wouldnt Trump win all the states he won in 2016?

If they voted for him then, he hasnt done anything to change those voters minds, and he has done more than enough to bring more over to him.

I held my nose and voted for trump in 2016. A little more push the other way and I would have written in Ted Cruz. Now nothing could have stopped me from voting Trump. If anything, those who did write in someone else or vote 3rd party should have been pushed toward trump, not away.

I see this as a win for trump equal to a greater than 2016 plus the popular vote*



*ignoring fraud.
Trump is polarizing if you have not noticed. Even more so than in 2016, mainly because his opponent in 16 was polarizing as well.

Well now his opponent is a corrupt and compromised senile old pervert and bonafide racist...whose running mate has locked up more black men than the 1964 Alabama Highway Patrol.

This ticket SHOULD be far more polarizing than Hillary/Caine, but the media is completely corrupt and all liberals are stupid. F em all.






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