EC Map discussion

6,931 Views | 99 Replies | Last: 21 days ago by Sasappis
Cactus Jack
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Why Trump campaigning hard in New Hampshire (only lost by 2,750 votes in 2016 out of 750,000+ cast) could be a big deal:

Let's say he wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona. Biden wins a squeaker in Pennsylvania. If Trump wins Wisconsin (his largest win in the "blue wall" in 2016) or Michigan, along with New Hampshire, he's above 270.
Keegan99
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Link to these predictions?
amercer
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Keegan99 said:

Link to these predictions?


It's been a widely reported story for the last few days. This guy was cited as a source for the NPR and Guardian stories:

http://www.electproject.org/
agsalaska
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amercer said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.


Ground game is overrated in normal years and basically a non factor this year when turnout is going to be historically high.

The only real options are that Biden wins handily, or we never do polling again. I know what F16 thinks on that one, but we'll all have to wait 6 more days to know for sure.
Pretend I am an ignorant fool and explain this one to me.
W
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looking at recent history...

Indiana and North Carolina were the only 2 states that Romney flipped in 2012 (from Obama in 2008).

it's very tough to flip states from the incumbent.

would be surprised if Biden can flip more than 2.

in that case...it would have to be 2 big ones. (e.g. Florida & Pennsylvania)
amercer
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Here's a really interesting time warp of an article from 2016. At the end they note that since Trump has zero ground game the 2016 election should be a great test of whether it matters or not.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standard/does-ground-game-matter-2004271%3f_amp=true
Great_I_Am
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amercer said:

The predictions are for turnout levels not seen since 1908. Those predictions could be wrong, but at this rate it looks like early voting may surpass the total 2016 vote by itself.

High turnout has historically favored Democrats, but again that could be wrong this year. I do feel we've reached the point where a whole lot has to be wrong for Trump to win. I'm also glad that it's finally coming to an end and that we will have actual answers soon.
Are you basing this on poll numbers? Everything else shows overwhelming enthusiasm for Trump, even early voting numbers in battle ground states don't reflect this.
agsalaska
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amercer said:

Here's a really interesting time warp of an article from 2016. At the end they note that since Trump has zero ground game the 2016 election should be a great test of whether it matters or not.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standard/does-ground-game-matter-2004271%3f_amp=true
Thats an excellent point. We sure are putting a lot of weight on the ground game.


Still, Clinton, Trump, Obama, Romney, McCain, Gore, Bush and many others could draw tens of thousands to rallies. Biden has about 15 full time press people and some Secret Service guys and a local cop or three. That's it.

Our football team has more of a presence on the road than Biden does.
amercer
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I think your definition of "everything" might vary wildly depending on where you get your news. This election both sides will go in with completely different sets of "facts". One of the sides must be really wrong.
amercer
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I agree that Biden doesn't make anyone enthusiastic, but I'm not sure it matters this year. Every Democrat I know didn't vote for him in the primary, but has already cast a vote for him in the general.

Again, 6 days til we have some clarity.
agsalaska
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Yea it's a crazy election.
Great_I_Am
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amercer said:

I think your definition of "everything" might vary wildly depending on where you get your news. This election both sides will go in with completely different sets of "facts". One of the sides must be really wrong.
The visuals don't match the polls, as you said, one side will have a lot of soul searching to do after the 3rd.
DTP02
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amercer said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.


Ground game is overrated in normal years and basically a non factor this year when turnout is going to be historically high.

The only real options are that Biden wins handily, or we never do polling again. I know what F16 thinks on that one, but we'll all have to wait 6 more days to know for sure.


Ground game is critical for getting the benefit of all the tine and effort the Trump campaign put into reaching unreached voters. If Trump wins, it's that effort and the ground game that supports it which is going to be the key.

And it's not a group which is getting captured in polling.
Infection_Ag11
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amercer said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.


Ground game is overrated in normal years and basically a non factor this year when turnout is going to be historically high.

The only real options are that Biden wins handily, or we never do polling again. I know what F16 thinks on that one, but we'll all have to wait 6 more days to know for sure.
We've also never had such a pervasive sentiment of "I'm voting AGAINST that guy"

A lot of people voted against Hillary in 2016, but there was still a lot of enthusiasm for Trump as well. How many Biden voters are excited about Joe Biden? Most of his voters would cast a ballot for a wooden post if it were running against Donald Trump.

This is an entirely unique election with regards to WHY people are voting.
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Sasappis
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Here is an interesting article about how some states will count early & absentee ballots on election day. Counting mail in ballots before election day or after may cause the early and final numbers to shift one way or the other depending on the method.

Cnn is predicting PA and WI to look good for Trump early but to shift blue. They are predicting the opposite in NC and FL. They will look good for bidden early but shift red as more day of votes are added in.

Maacus
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Gigem314 said:

Sasappis said:

Mucho austin said:

maybe im just missing something, buy why wouldnt Trump win all the states he won in 2016?

If they voted for him then, he hasnt done anything to change those voters minds, and he has done more than enough to bring more over to him.

I held my nose and voted for trump in 2016. A little more push the other way and I would have written in Ted Cruz. Now nothing could have stopped me from voting Trump. If anything, those who did write in someone else or vote 3rd party should have been pushed toward trump, not away.

I see this as a win for trump equal to a greater than 2016 plus the popular vote*



*ignoring fraud.
Trump is polarizing if you have not noticed. Even more so than in 2016, mainly because his opponent in 16 was polarizing as well.

There are some in the middle voters that have probably been turned off by Trump's constant schtick. There are some in the middle voters that have probably been turned on to Trump by the constant lying and manipulation from the media/left.

It is a question of percentages on which share is the dominant trend. We will find out soon.
Lots of assumption there.

Trump is a known entity in 2020. Not sure I buy the notion that he's "more polarizing" than 2016. I myself thought he was polarizing in 2016 and voted 3rd party...but am voting Trump this time around and find his personality secondary to the polarizing behavior by the democrats and the media.

Biden is polarizing as well. He doesn't have the enthusiasm of his base. Particularly with youth and minorities. He's embraced polarizing positions like the Green New Deal and court packing. Then of course the big one last week with him coming out against the O&G industry that impacts jobs in many of these battleground states.

Over half the country wanted to the SCOTUS seat filled and the democrats fought to oppose it and are declaring ACB's appointment as immoral. Then of course voters saw the democrats drag the country through impeachment in an election year. You're ignoring a lot of polarizing behavior there.

You're also not acknowledging voters in cities/states impacted heavily by lock-downs and riots that turned them off to their local democrat leadership and are drawn to Trump's 'open it up' and 'law enforcement' positions.

Trump has also added a lot of voters to the rolls these past few years. His ground game is reaching people that hadn't voted in years or never voted before. People can scoff at his rallies, but no President has ever attracted a following like that. At the very least, it shows the Republican base is more motivated than at any point in its history outside of maybe the 1984 Reagan landslide. There are lots of R voters that didn't care enough to support McCain or Romney that would walk through fire to support Trump.
I actually like Trump's personality.
Gigem314
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It's grown on me since 2016.

Given the vile behavior of the democrats and media the past 4 years...I enjoy Trump's jabs now. I welcome them.

They make me laugh.

I'm trying to watch as many of his rallies as possible, because we'll never see anything like this again.
aginresearch
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If you have been paying attention to actual early vote numbers and the partisan breakdown of the people returning them (a bunch of that modeled I know but its the best we have in many cases) you have a good idea of where the election day vote needs to be for one side or another to win.

In Florida's case they will dump all early voting totals almost immediately then start processing election day totals. I expect early voting to lean towards Biden and think that election day votes will be heavily Trump. In Pennsylvania they don't have the infrastructure to count VBM rapidly like Florida does. Most states are not equipped to handle large volumes of VBM because this is the first time they've done it at this scale. I expect heavy Trump numbers in Pennsylvania on election day but they have a massive blue wall of VBM ballots to overcome. There will be legal challenges on par with 2000.

In short we get these articles like people are idiots and the enlightened press is here to help guide us out of our stupidity. Many people may not be paying attention but for those of us that are we already knew exactly what was going to happen. Frankly, I'm tired of being lectured by my betters, who are really not my betters but masquerade as one.
WestAustinAg
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Suburban moms are trending away from Trump to some extent. They participated in BLM protests through suburban communities and have little radical white girls in the home. They have been a bit radicalized by the black/white issue this Sunmer.
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WestAustinAg
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amercer said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.


Ground game is overrated in normal years and basically a non factor this year when turnout is going to be historically high.

The only real options are that Biden wins handily, or we never do polling again. I know what F16 thinks on that one, but we'll all have to wait 6 more days to know for sure.


The ground game this election is social media for Biden and the targeted GOTV to young people that they are doing. I'm not sure if these are paid ads or massive campaigns owned by the social media giants themselves. GOTV targeting young people is really just a Biden ad.

Trump's ground game starts with his rallies and voter registration tables set up at each. Then he uses targeted Facebook ads like he did. In 2016.

In short ground games are still relevant...just done differently with the use of social media.
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MaroonStain
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Legend said:

Gigem314 said:

amercer said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Gigem314 said:

txagbear said:

Readzilla said:

assuming WI because even nbc is publishing data that Rs are leading in ballot returns
Average polling data has Biden plus 9. You have a link?
The average that's factoring in ridiculous numbers like Biden being up more in WI than Obama was in 2008? lol
So you agree with the other poster? Trump is not only a lean, but a lock?
Does it really matter if you're confident Biden has support that surpasses Obama 2008 and it's already over?
Doesn't have to surpass Obama. Just needs slightly better than Hillary
Hard to get an accurate gauge when polls are factoring in numbers of Biden with greater numbers than Obama in 2008...when his campaign doesn't even come close in enthusiasm or ground game.


Ground game is overrated in normal years and basically a non factor this year when turnout is going to be historically high.

The only real options are that Biden wins handily, or we never do polling again. I know what F16 thinks on that one, but we'll all have to wait 6 more days to know for sure.
Except, we don't know if turnout is historically high for the Dems. To dismiss the Trump ground game and getting people out to vote that haven't voted in recent elections is notable. I don't see anything to indicate a Biden landslide.
This. No one knows turnout is going to be through the roof. Some are actually predicting low turnout among blacks and youth/college aged voters for various reasons. All we know is that "record turnout" has occurred in early voting and vote by mail. This is due to Covid and there are no doubt highly motivated people on both sides who were eager to vote. But, there are a ton of people who watched that first debate and said "is this really the best two people we have? They may never vote.

Turnout has been below 60% (of voting age population) since 1960. 2016 was 55%. I think if there is going to be a higher turnout it will be on the Trump side. They have spent a lot of time trying to identify non-voters and sign them up. Biden is not drawing anyone to the polls. Question is how much the TDS can drive turnout. Historically, the anti-vote doesn't do it. Sure, it motivates the haters, but that traditionally only goes so far.


Why mention the first debate but not the second debate?
"Thanks and Gig'em!"
agmom95
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Yes, saw this happen here in Austin. I'm affiliated with a local preschool and all of the moms took this route. On social media there were pictures of 4 year old girls in their BLM shirts getting ready for protesting.
Legend
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MaroonStain said:


Why mention the first debate but not the second debate?
Because the second debate isn't germane to the point I was making.

I was talking about turnout and that no one knows for sure how it will end up after Election Day. We are seeing an increase in early voting but is it new/increased voters or people voting earlier than normal for various reasons (Covid, enthusiasm, etc).? The first debate was relevant to some people being turned off by BOTH candidates and deciding not to vote. For those people, the second debate is irrelevant b/c they tuned out of frustration with what they perceived as bad candidates on both sides. I know plenty of people who voted and still decided not to watch the second debate. (As an aside, I watched all the debates as well as several clips of replays since I enjoy politics like a sport).

No one really is excited about Biden. People have strong opinions both ways on Trump. That leads to energetic voters but will it necessarily mean high turnout across the board? I think you will see increased turnout in areas (white non-college rurals for example) and decreases in other demographics.

And I was commentating on "people" not my personal opinion. I knew who I was voting for ages ago.

Not sure what you are suggesting with this post and the thumbs down.
ActualTalkingThermos
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Iraq2xVeteran said:

a built-in advantage in electoral votes for Democrats
????

Without the electoral college the Dems would have won 6 of the last 7 presidential elections. But we've had 12 years of R presidents since 1992, not 4.
Gigem314
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WestAustinAg said:

Suburban moms are trending away from Trump to some extent. They participated in BLM protests through suburban communities and have little radical white girls in the home. They have been a bit radicalized by the black/white issue this Sunmer.
I'm sure some are. But I've also seen others express concern over safety with the riots.
MaroonStain
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I think the 2nd debate was a game-changer and will be part of the difference in increased voter turnout for Trump plus crossover votes from Biden.

Look at the search trends after the 2nd debate: how do I change my vote, Hunter's laptop, end fracking, etc.

Democrats are starting to panic. Look at the BS posts from reslibs, CM and Never Trumpers on this site. Correspondents from "major news sources" have stated "going to be another long four years." Biden campaign workers are leaving. Pollsters are starting to post statements regarding uncertainty and "trends".
"Thanks and Gig'em!"
Sasappis
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NC and FL looking more solid. That gives Trump some wiggle room if he loses PA but not much
Keegan99
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Add Arizona and he only needs one of the rust belt states.

Biden has to shoot the moon.
Sasappis
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Keegan99 said:

Add Arizona and he only needs one of the rust belt states.

Biden has to shoot the moon.
Looks like FL and NC end up in the Trump camp.

Too early to call OH yet, but no one is predicting a flip yet.

Looks like it will come down

PA, AZ and MI.

Trump has a big early lead in MI but that is election day and not early voting. The map is taking shape.

Sasappis
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Arizona looking like a Biden pickup. That will likely mean we are waiting on the Big 10 to tell us the winner in couple of days.
 
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