Looks like 2032 is the year…

TexAgs91 said:

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nortex97 said:

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And…why can't they just get a Mac? Or for that matter, an Ipad for these computing functions? In a couple years it will be fascinating what computing hardware the SpaceX team starts hurling toward Mars.

Somewhat tangential to the thread but the FAA has been embroiled for decades in a massive set of multi-billion dollar NextGen ATC updates to an antiquated system. Geekier discussion from over 10 years ago at Leeham. It's a necessarily complex problem to solve, setting aside my anti-government animus/bias.

SpaceX is going to assist:

The safety of air travel is a non-partisan matter. SpaceX engineers will help make air travel safer.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 17, 2025

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I guess the bidding on that contract is over?

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I guess we should let NASA, Boeing, Raytheon, etc etc etc charge billions and billions and then get it done 10 years down the road…. Elon will charge them $250,000 and have it done in a few months…

I still believe in competition.

If Elon and his crew are the only ones in the US that can write software, we have serious problems.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/by-the-end-of-today-nasas-workforce-will-be-about-10-percent-smaller/

nortex97 said:

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And…why can't they just get a Mac? Or for that matter, an Ipad for these computing functions? In a couple years it will be fascinating what computing hardware the SpaceX team starts hurling toward Mars.

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Would be curious to see what year that was. Very possible the iPad didn't exist yet

It keeps going up! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! /s

JUST IN: NASA says there's now a 3.1% chance an asteroid will hit Earth in 2032, up from 2.6% yesterday.

This is the highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received, surpassing 2.7% in 2004 pic.twitter.com/Ui4IuYbHX1

— BNO News Live (@BNODesk) February 18, 2025

Could you imagine if it was projected to hit a US city? Mass evacuations and chaos.

I can see it now. We send a DART mission and successfully change the orbit to miss in 2032. But remember it comes back every 4 years. And the change makes an unexpected consequence and guaranteed hit in 2036.

That would be about par for the course.

We need a giant catchers mitt

Blow it apart.


or


Nuke it from orbit, it's the only way to be sure.

RIP Bill Paxton.

Edit... Reopened phone for an hour later DDP

V8Aggie said:

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Could you imagine if it was projected to hit a US city? Mass evacuations and chaos.

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No luck this time... /s

https://t.co/6tyYaQZPba pic.twitter.com/0EGvJWp8SM

— Battle Beagle (@HarmlessYardDog) February 18, 2025

So what's the maximum disturbance from impact if it hits Bogota? Would imagine Houston-area gets something out of it.

This asteroid isn't that large. It's 150 - 300 ft wide. Even if it's on a trajectory won't we know far enough in advance to simply divert it? Am I too optimistic in our asteroid defense capabilities?

OnlyForNow said:

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So what's the maximum disturbance from impact if it hits Bogota? Would imagine Houston-area gets something out of it.

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The projectile begins to break up at an altitude of 116 km (72.1 miles).
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 55.0 km (34.2 miles).
The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 2.85 km/s (1.77 miles/s).
The energy of the airburst is 1.57x 1014 Joules (3.74 Megatons TNT).
No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.

According to the Perdue Impact calculator I found using the best numbers from media reports and a 45 degree entry angle.

https://www.purdue.edu/impactearth/

"May strike the surface"???

Sounds like this is an absolute nothing burger. Who gives a **** if it "impacts" Earth if it isn't going to even be noticeable besides visually in the sky.

will25u said:

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It keeps going up! WE'RE ALL GONNA DIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! /s

JUST IN: NASA says there's now a 3.1% chance an asteroid will hit Earth in 2032, up from 2.6% yesterday.

This is the highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received, surpassing 2.7% in 2004 pic.twitter.com/Ui4IuYbHX1

— BNO News Live (@BNODesk) February 18, 2025

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sounds like another problem Elon will have to fix... NASA would never be able to go remove and asteroid, but Elon could do this more than likely!

ChemAg15 said:

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This asteroid isn't that large. It's 150 - 300 ft wide. Even if it's on a trajectory won't we know far enough in advance to simply divert it? Am I too optimistic in our asteroid defense capabilities?

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Elon is holding on line 1... the 24 yr old programmer Big Balls has a plan to remove the asteroid

All emissions regulations canceled and get them coal plants back online. Tell Bill Gates to stop spraying metallic particles in the atmosphere to reflect sunlight.

We gotta warm this planet up as much as possible to soften the blow of the 3.1% chance of a mini-ice age.

Merino wool; invest now!

TexAgs91 said:

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We know from movies, it can only hit New York or Los Angeles.

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Underrated post. Blue parachute awarded.

OnlyForNow said:

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"May strike the surface"???

Sounds like this is an absolute nothing burger. Who gives a **** if it "impacts" Earth if it isn't going to even be noticeable besides visually in the sky.

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Gather around boys and girls.

This sounds like the Tunguska event that exploded in the atmosphere over Siberia in 1908. It also yielded about 3-5 megatons and did not hit the ground or create a crater. It flattened 800 square miles of forest.

Quote:

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On 30 June 1908, at around 7:17 am local time, Evenki natives and Russian settlers in the hills northwest of Lake Baikal observed a bluish light, nearly as bright as the Sun, moving across the sky and leaving a thin trail. Closer to the horizon, there was a flash producing a billowing cloud, followed by a pillar of fire that cast a red light on the landscape. The pillar split in two and faded, turning to black. About ten minutes later, there was a sound similar to artillery fire. Eyewitnesses closer to the explosion reported that the source of the sound moved from the east to the north of them. The sounds were accompanied by a shock wave that knocked people off their feet and broke windows hundreds of kilometres away.

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It was heard 700 miles away and shock waves were recorded in western Europe. An astronomer in London said the skies were glowing at midnight.

Ok, this is Elon talking, but he said in his cool Grok-3 demo at 20:34 that the next Mars transfer window is November 2026. He's planning on sending Starship to Mars with Optimus robots.

Now that's what I'm talking about.

Centerpole90 said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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We know from movies, it can only hit New York or Los Angeles.

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Underrated post. Blue parachute awarded.

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Clearly y'all have not seen the glorious made for tv movie "Asteroid" that took out Dallas!

Failed upper stage de-orbit from Feb 2. Spacex doesn't need bad publicity of their stuff causing any damage right now on re-entry, glad no one was apparently harmed. Kind of incredible that thing survived an uncontrolled atmospheric re-entry to that extent.

This image claims (and it's very likely correct) to show a pressure vessel from the reentered Falcon 9, fallen near Poznan in Poland https://t.co/im9s3qczJA

— Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) February 19, 2025

Those wrapped pressure vessels are tough SOBs. I've seen a few images of them surviving reentry.

I thought they had a good handle on their deorbit procedure but maybe there's an aspect you can't control

OnlyForNow said:

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"May strike the surface"???

Sounds like this is an absolute nothing burger. Who gives a **** if it "impacts" Earth if it isn't going to even be noticeable besides visually in the sky.

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Because airbursts can be as devastating as direct impacts. Even without an impact you could be talking an atmospheric explosion on the order of hundreds of kilotons to megatons. The Tunguska meteor airburst in 1908, releasing an estimated minimum of 5 megatons of energy and completely flattened over 800 square miles of forest without impacting the surface. Think an area bigger than Houston where nothing is left standing.

ETA There was another, smaller airburst over Chelyabinsk several years ago. The meteor was only 55-65 in diameter, smaller than this one, and it airburst at a pretty high altitude. The yield was several hundred kilotons and it broke pretty much every piece of glass in the city. There were hundreds of injuries from falling glass and objects.

Looked at it compared to Bogota, if something similar happened, has a chance to level Bogota itself, completely.

So as y'all have alluded to, maybe not a crater - but super damaging none-the-less.

Yeah, it's like getting shot with a bean bag round. It may not enter, but it will still **** you up because that energy has to go somewhere.

I have seen some say online that this is essentially equivalent to that should it hit.

Tbh the impact path is about as good as you could hope for. The world would be fine even in the short term if it hit along that path. Very little of consequence. Only better path would essentially be Siberia or northern Canada outside of the ocean.

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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So those of us that live to see 2027 or so will witness a couple of bipedal droids walking around on Mars. What a time to be alive.

Gonna go ahead and predict that one of the droids gets bricked after some SpaceX intern programs it to do a Minecraft dance and it trips on a rock.

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Has a very Mars Attacks feel to it.

When does Fredrick Pohl's Man Plus take the ride?