It's been a great space year. I'm fine leaving everything on this same thread. Lots to look forward to in 2023, more Falcon Heavy launches, New Glenn testing maybe, and Starship hopefully making it to orbit!

I enjoy the discourse we have on this thread, so many knowledgeable folks sharing what they know and stoking the passion for this stuff in others.

Yeah I'm really looking forward to Starship getting off the ground.

I'll make the hour trip over for sure.

Last time I got halfway there and they aborted due to a sticky valve and then launched a few hours later.

TexAgs91 said:

---

A is A said:

---

lb3 said:

---

I may have talked my wife into going down to Boca Chica for the BFF super heavy launch.

To those who have been to starbase, Is cell coverage good enough to work remotely on launch days?

---

Is early Dec still in play? or did this get pushed back again?

---

Early Dec = January at the least

---

So do we think January is still realistic, or are we thinking Feb-March?

Haha, probably April or later at this rate.

I've enjoyed the thread immensely nortex97, and echo the thought that keeping it here is fine.

I love the thread as well and am fine leaving it here or moving wherever. No decreased interest on my part, just increased disdain for the governmental TLAs getting in the way of progress.

Keep this thread!

This thread is great and belongs on the politics board for sure. When SpaceX finally gets closer to the Starship orbital launch, there will be tons of interest here.

This thread is the only reason I venture over to this nutty board.

double aught said:

---

This thread is the only reason I venture over to this nutty board.

---

Same.

This thread has been great this year with live commentary for the JWST launch and photo reveals and a the Artemis I mission.

Over the holidays things have slowed a little and I don't think we've discussed the Soyuz radiator leak or Collins Aerospace getting a sole source contract for the next ISS space suit over Axiom.

I'll be in the office for a bit today and will hopefully be able to post a status tonight on the Soyuz analysis to clear it for entry and any work done to bring additional crew home on Dragon.

Love this thread, keep it going. It has been highly informative.

Excited to hear that one, cause most ofnthe news outlets I follow aren't saying much!

Thx, look forward to it. Scott had a nice overview a couple weeks back.



Marcus also had a small update a few days back (spoiler, he still didn't know what the plan would be on Xmas eve);



Also, end of year type of piece for this thread (Eric Berger); 'Top US Launch companies of 2022.' The first three are obvious, but the rest of the list/discussion/comments are interesting.

I'm biased about keeping this thread around, but I wanted to hear what others had to say. I'm glad to have a place where space nerds can discuss what's been going on because there has been a LOT going on. I think this thread has been a great place to have intelligent discussion as well as documenting a great resurgence of space activity, especially by private companies. Thank you to all who have contributed.

Let's keep it going

My only suggestion is that a new "Science" board be crated and it moves there. While there are a lot of political spin off connections and discussions that occur, this group reins that in quickly so we don't get too off topic

OnlyForNow said:

---

My only suggestion is that a new "Science" board be crated and it moves there. While there are a lot of political spin off connections and discussions that occur, this group reins that in quickly so we don't get too off topic

---

I've requested a science board or something like that many times. Staff can't even be bothered to respond to me.

OnlyForNow said:

---

My only suggestion is that a new "Science" board be crated and it moves there. While there are a lot of political spin off connections and discussions that occur, this group reins that in quickly so we don't get too off topic

---

If this thread moves, there likely won't be enough traffic to sustain it. The Nerdery had a JWST thread that was a shadow of this thread's discussions.

As for the Soyuz, there weren't enough people in the office today to get any gossip. Last I heard on Tuesday (as best as I can recall) was that the Dragon was cleared for 5 crew safe haven ops and that 5 crew return was likely doable however 7 crew was still being evaluated.

The Soyuz was cleared for contingency (emergency) returns. But thermal performance risks were still being evaluated for nominal returns. If dropping down to 2 crew was deemed favorable from a risk perspective, they would try to bring 5 crew back on Dragon.

No word as of Tuesday as to whether Russia would try to accelerate the next Soyuz or how many crew, if any, would fly on it.

Basically I just got caught up on the pre-Christmas questions being asked. I'm sure there are more answers by now but I'm not involved in those discussions and there is nobody around this week to chat about it.

Does spacex have another dragon that could be prepped in a relative short time? I've wondered that, how long would it take them to get another dragon up?

Last SpaceX launch of the year just took off. Got home late tonight from the airport and was unloading the truck so I figured I might as well stay up since the reentry would've woken me up anyhow. Pretty wild to hear and feel the rocket shaking the house. Couldn't see **** tonight which is when it seems like the launches are the loudest. Still amazing the ops tempo these guys are able to maintain. Here's to continued success in 2023

SpaceX now has 4 Crew Dragon vehicles. There is a pretty extensive refurbishment process but I'm sure they could get one up pretty quickly. Probably the one slated for their Polaris Dawn mission if I had to guess. But I'm certain this is in the trade space but it isn't being discussed much due to the optics and politics involved.

Namely, who would pay for it and how it would look for Russia and their aging Soyuz program needing to rely on SpaceX to rescue their cosmonauts.

Here is an article which touches on some discussions with SpaceX. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/technology/nasa-ponders-spacex-astronaut-rescue-as-backup-after-soyuz-leak-report/ar-AA15Mr9X

I'm sure Roscosmos would never write SpaceX a check so they would need to barter future Soyuz seats or cargo transfers with NASA to cover the costs. That stuff is way above my pay grade. I'm sure Russia would rush the next Soyuz before they would agree to return their crew on Dragon.

If NASA isn't confident in the Soyuz thermal analysis they will return Frank Rubio on a Dragon. They can't just swap Frank for Anna Kikina b/c the Soyuz requires custom seat liners molded for each crew.

If any additional seats were to be added to Dragon on orbit, they would likely be constructed from Soyuz seat liners. But those crew wouldn't have access to headset com or the ability to pressurize a suit in the event of a depress. They would basically just be cargo.

Ag_of_08 said:

---

Does spacex have another dragon that could be prepped in a relative short time? I've wondered that, how long would it take them to get another dragon up?

---

They have 4.
Endeavor, Endurance, Resilience, and Freedom.

Endurance is currently docked at the ISS.
Endeavour is slated for a crew flight in February under CCP.
Resilience is slated for a crew flight in March under the private Polaris Program.

So theoretically Freedom is available for a rescue though if one had to go, though it just returned from the ISS in October. Endeavour would most likely be the easiest as it's currently slated for an ISS launch (assuming there's any specialized work done for an ISS docking).

I was surprised they announced they weren't building any more this year a few months back as I recall. I figured they could build 1 or 2 extra for tourist flights/supplement future commercial space station cargo/astronaut missions, as starship ain't gonna be ready that soon for all of that.

Oh well. They are all in on starship ultimately, even though it has basically zero chance of carrying even starlinks to orbit in 1H 2023 (the cargo doors are bolted shut on the next two vehicles).

According to Wikipedia serial number C213 is under construction and will be the 5th and final. Don't know if this was supposed to be a 6th crew unit or if it is intended as a replacement for C204 which was destroyed during the abort system test (after it's first orbital test flight), C205 flew the final abort test and was retired immediately afterwards.

I dunno about Wiki but shotwell basically said in March that Freedom is the end of the line. It does seem like an odd decision to me, but it's not my money, so their choices.

Then again, Boeing got nearly twice as much to develop/build starliner, and that...hasn't worked out well by comparison. We coulda had Dreamchaser and Dragon in much greater quantities without the Boeing waste...

In any case, 2023 looks to be, frankly, more exciting/fun to follow than 2022 even, imho. The Euro's, Indians, and Japanese, to say nothing of the Chinese stuff, will also have a lot going on.

A bit of a disappointment that Relativity and ABL didn't get off the ground this year.

ABL had a few last minute aborts during countdown in November and December, four aborted launch attempts in total.

Relativity, who knows, they generated a lot of hype, made a web page, but don't publish any timeline.

https://t.co/A1UDJWe55M

— ⁷ (@2savage2manage) January 3, 2023

Interplanetary colonization ain't cheap.

He was lazy in looking up the specific heat of turkey. ASHRA provides these values for industrial HVAC engineers. Even WolframAlfa will tell you this value…
2.81 j/gC.

Another good retrospective piece;

https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/rocketry-went-boom-in-2022-but-in-a-good-way/

Quote:

---

Elon Musk has said that SpaceX is now targeting 100 launches in 2023, and based on its track record it will not be a surprise if it succeeds.

Beyond SpaceX, the launch record set in 2022 was achieved almost entirely by private companies selling their products to customers, whether those customers were commercial satellite companies or government entities. Though NASA finally launched its SLS rocket in 2022, that rocket took eighteen years to create, cost about $60 billion, and was about seven years late. And it won't launch again for another two to three years.

The launch record in 2022 was thus the result of Americans building private rockets competitively for profit, not a government space program dictating what everyone will do. Because of the chaotic freedom that competition engenders, combined with profits and actual achievement, expect that growth to continue.

For example, five new rocket startups (Firefly, Blue Origin, Relativity, ABL, and Aevum) had planned to complete their first launch in 2022. Only one succeeded, Firefly. Yet, the U.S. still had a record-breaking year.

Of the four companies that did not fly in 2022, three almost succeeded, but had to scrub or delay for technical reasons. The odds that all four will successfully launch in 2023 is quite high. Add these companies to the mix and in the coming years the American launch industry can only continue to be remarkably vibrant and competitive.

This American success is fueling similar private commercial efforts in Europe and India. If the new companies in these nations succeed, acting to replace the moribund government launch services that have done little in the past decade, than the growth in launches worldwide shall be stunning. Not only will American companies be competing against each other, they will be competing against new companies in Germany, India, and the United Kingdom.

Won't that be exciting?

Meanwhile, competition between private companies has been further fueled by competition between nations. China, as illustrated by the graph below, continued its aggressive and ambitious space program, setting a new launch record while completing its own space station and a variety of challenging unmanned planetary missions to the Moon and Mars.

---

Quote:

---

Though NASA finally launched its SLS rocket in 2022, that rocket took eighteen years to create, cost about $60 billion, and was about seven years late. And it won't launch again for another two to three years.

---

Stunning.

Another Apollo astronaut passed away. Walt Cunningham of Apollo 7, age 90.

PJYoung said:

---

Quote:

---

Though NASA finally launched its SLS rocket in 2022, that rocket took eighteen years to create, cost about $60 billion, and was about seven years late. And it won't launch again for another two to three years.

---

Stunning.

---

More like infuriating and inexcusable.