Blue origin being smart enough to get ULA to do flight testing for them ;-)

Ag_of_08 said:

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Blue origin being smart enough to get ULA to do flight testing for them ;-)

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That's playing the LOOOOOOOOOOOONG game.

I'm wondering if Bezos hasn't kinda throttled back on the whole thing TBH. I think he may have realized that Musk has beaten him to most of the big milestones people are caring about, and is trying to jump into the markets he thinks he can still make money on. They could shock us all and roll a New Glenn out tomorrow, but they don't have the launch infrastructure even finished yet... definitely a head scratcher.

I know theyre all wrapped up with the HLS/ILS lander program right now, but I have some real objections to the things design.... long ladders where a bad idea in the 60s, they have not improved as an idea since then. It just has no real path forward beyond flags and foot prints, and were rehashing the designs they eliminated for the LEM. The BE descent module, which I think bezos latched on to this lander with to fund development, does have some potential for rover and cargo delivery.

I honestly think the dynetics lander has the most potential currently, but I'm still a bit confused why they're focusing on building it for Vulcan/centaur, given the heavier option with FH would, if I understand it right, allow them to do it in two launches instead of one. I realize centaur is a higher energy stage, but the numbers line up with heavy, makes me wonder if the Falcon upperstage is lacking when it comes to rendezvous abilities.

Regardless, I think they have a better and safer design, and are the best option in the next five years for an early moon lander. If/when the lunar modified starship comes online, it will supercede it for the most part, but I think it would remain useful if it proves reusable as predicted.

I have no interest in discussing politics here outside the ones involving space flight, and please don't use this as an excuse to, I think the point is valid here. I am very concerned that this incoming admin, and the partisan politics in congress, are going to seriously damage manned space exploration simply out of spite, and historical precedent. The Alabama crew are going to be sidelined( Rs), Musk is...definitely not popular with them, and Artemis, even though I think the SLS program needs to be told "we payed you for it, were not giving you any more money until the vehicle is delivered, and if you don't have it delivered by xyz date, were going to consider you to have violated the contract, and we expect a refund" it's cancelation in an anti-space admin will mean no viable alternatives will be explored. Hopefully partisan politics don't ruin the greatest explosion in space exploration in human history before it leaves the starting blocks....

There's some validity to the concern as losing Bridenstine and bringing in the pro-Boeing lobbyist to replace him is...an issue. SLS costs are so ludicrously high I am not sure Boeing/LM will fail to deliver on time at this point. Say what you will about the down side of the whole SLS system/cost/location politically...but LM and Boeing do have just about the best lobbyists in the business of government, so I am not sure if the location is really a disadvantage on that (work is done all over of course, and I think the engines (follow on ludicrous $100 million each) are going to be built in California for instance).

The first thing I think they might cut though is the lunar gateway, which will, though seeming like a 'not required piece' now, really hamstrung exploration efforts (both to the moon and mars). I don't understand all of the phases for the gateway, but Maxar is building the first block. I haven't seen many updates at all on this. I think it's supposed to launch in 2023 still (presumably on a FH), so really it's the first Artemis piece they could...put on the chopping block (assuming the 2021 orbital launch happens).

Quote:

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In May of 2019, NASA announced that it had awarded a $375 million contract to Colorado-based aerospace company Maxar Technologies(formerly SSL) to develop the PPE. The design called for a 50-kilowatt solar electric propulsion (SEP) spacecraft that will serve as a mobile command and service module and communications relay for human and robotic expeditions to the lunar surface.

Originally, NASA hoped to have this module ready by 2022 so that it could be launched as part of the Artemis 2 mission. The creation of other elements like the HAbitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO), the ESPRIT service module, and the International Habitation Module(iHAB) were also recently contracted to Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems (NGIS) and Airbus and OHB, respectively.

But as we reported in a previous article, since March of 2019, there have been concerns at NASA that the expedited timeline could come at the cost of sacrificing the Lunar Gateway. As an inside source reported at the time, there had been apparent pushback from the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) over continued funding for an element they considered unnecessary.

...

Of course, Loverro emphasized that NASA was not abandoning the Lunar Gateway and that removing it from the "critical path" would lead to a better Gateway program. For one, it will give NASA contractors more time to develop their modules, which were originally scheduled for completion beginning in 2026. Second, it will cut the associated costs for Project Artemis. As he said:

Quote:

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"We can now tell them 100% positively it will be there because we've changed that program to a much more what I would call solid, accomplishable schedule Frankly, had we not done that simplification, I was going to have to cancel Gateway because I couldn't afford it. By simplifying it and taking it out of the critical path, I can now keep it on track."

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This means that the Artemis missions will no longer rely on the Gateway and will instead use a lunar lander incorporated into the Orion spacecraft. Here too, Loverro hinted that there would be changes in order to cut costs and reduce risks. Previously, NASA had proposed a reusable three-stage lander consisting of an ascent module, descent module, and transfer module all of which would be assembled at the Gateway.

Instead, Loverro proposed taking the time-tested and proven approach. This likely means that the Artemis lander will be a two-stage spacecraft, like the lunar module that took the Apollo astronauts to the Moon, consisting of a descent stage and an ascent stage. In Sept. of 2019, when NASA announced the decision to fast-track the development of the lunar lander, contractors were given the option of suggesting non-reusable alternatives as well.

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Maxar also are working with dynetics on their lander (which as indicated is easily the best design of the 3, imho).

Possibly, the PR of having the Chicoms land something on the moon within a couple years will also press the House/administration to continue funding Artemis.

Yesterday didn't go well for SN9, another aborted static fire, fyi all. It's anything but a mature system of course at this point, but still disappointing to track/follow sometimes.

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-aborts-third-starship-sn9-static-fire-attempt/

Trying to fire them up at about noon today (20 minutes from now).

Ah, he is counting the static fires from last week.

PJYoung said:

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Ah, he is counting the static fires from last week.

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Well... they have done 2 static fires so far today and it looks like they're going for another one.

I might be taking a trip to SPI tomorrow...seems like there could be a launch.

Also SPI right now is ridiculously cheap and beautiful. I paid like $80 for a great room at the Hilton on the beach for my family....Can't play in the water, but the sun and sand are just as nice.

Nice trip if close for you. Sort of like guys who bought AR's when they were a thousand bucks cheaper/25 cents a round.

A lot of the 'glitches' or delays seem to be associated with engine diagnostics, imho. I would guess each engine/fuel tank diagnostics, and each engine has it's on CPU to do a preflight check prior to lighting/launch. This has to be pretty fine tuned as the full on super heavy will use...28 raptor engines so they can't have an 'oops, didn't work' rate of failure as has happened thus far.

Just a minor note for the board, a ULA SLS engine will cost...something like 143 times what a Raptor does. As a defense for those of us who are not rocket engineers (hi, I'm not either), the Raptors are pretty incredible marvels in and of themselves (first full flow staged combustion engines ever flown) so it's not surprising getting them tweaked just right is taking some effort (plus, if they can land the darn things, they claim to want a thousand flights out of each motor).



I think long term Tom Mueller will be as remembered/venerated in American rocketry as Von Braun.

First time they've done 2 triple raptor static fires in the same day and now they've done a third!

Progress!


The time between the 2nd and 3rd was an hour 10 minutes. 3 1/2 hours for 3.

Looks like they might go for a 4th.

EDIT:

Blue Origin launch holding at 12 minutes. Still looks like a go.

ETA: Hold is for mid level winds.

Hold lifted. T-11 minutes.

Countdown on?

Edit yeeep

So spoiled by the SpaceX presentation... But very nice landing.

I watched the whole thing and I thought it was really cool, but is there anything new here different than the handful of times they've flown this identical flight profile? Was the only thing the upgraded capsule?

At this point it's more about testing the equipment for the lander they're developing more than it is the system. I have my doubts about them ever intending to make a manned flight with it in the end, unless NASA decides they want to do some sub-orbital "training". I think they're carrying some sounding rocket type experiment payloads, but that's really all...... trying to keep it exciting because it " could be manned!!!!!!!".

With their entry into the moon lander competition, they're going to be focusing on that...I dont see sub orb tourism being that profitable.

New test tank (mainly thinner walls, and new thrust puck design).

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-program-new-test-tank-assembly/

Changing out two of the raptors means...not gonna happen this weekend, anyway.

Dang it, was going to head down on Sunday for a Monday flight to take advantage of the long weekend.

View from inside Blue Horizon and Mannequin Skywalker

will25u said:

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Blue Origin launch holding at 12 minutes. Still looks like a go.

ETA: Hold is for mid level winds.

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Not bad

That was cool as heck!

YellowPot_97 said:

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View from inside Blue Horizon and Mannequin Skywalker

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Edit - saw post below that this was a couple years ago.

That was from a few years ago wasn't it?

That was definitely 2017 date on the video.

bthotugigem05 said:

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That was from a few years ago wasn't it?

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Aww you're right. I didn't realize that was from an earlier launch. Oh well, still cool.

Ag_of_08 said:

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At this point it's more about testing the equipment for the lander they're developing more than it is the system. I have my doubts about them ever intending to make a manned flight with it in the end, unless NASA decides they want to do some sub-orbital "training". I think they're carrying some sounding rocket type experiment payloads, but that's really all...... trying to keep it exciting because it " could be manned!!!!!!!".

With their entry into the moon lander competition, they're going to be focusing on that...I dont see sub orb tourism being that profitable.

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I read something yesterday that they're hoping to have a manned flight in June of this year? I want to say that's what I read. I have no idea how true it might be.

EDIT: this is from a Forbes article that was written yesterday and is much more nebulous:

Quote:

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A date for human flights has not yet been set, but Blue Origin is expected to target them to begin at some point later this year.

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanocallaghan/2021/01/14/blue-origin-launches-and-lands-its-first-space-tourism-rocket-of-the-year-with-human-flights-in-sight/?sh=665352e3283e

PJYoung said:

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Ag_of_08 said:

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At this point it's more about testing the equipment for the lander they're developing more than it is the system. I have my doubts about them ever intending to make a manned flight with it in the end, unless NASA decides they want to do some sub-orbital "training". I think they're carrying some sounding rocket type experiment payloads, but that's really all...... trying to keep it exciting because it " could be manned!!!!!!!".

With their entry into the moon lander competition, they're going to be focusing on that...I dont see sub orb tourism being that profitable.

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I read something yesterday that they're hoping to have a manned flight in June of this year? I want to say that's what I read. I have no idea how true it might be.

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Their june goal is "the edge of space" which in plain english means "sub-orbital." The question is what is New Shepherd ever going to really do? The USAF is about done with it. New Glenn seems like vaporware, and Bezos doesn't seem to really want to go...do interplanetary stuff.

So they're a high-altitude tourist or research platform?

I'd guess there's a market but you're not exactly cornering a big one.

Nee Glenn was "expected" this year too, but a prototype doesn't seem to even be on the horizon.

I still think they're only launching it to test lander hardware, and new Glenn may even end up scrapped. Make me think the work they're doing in Florida may end up as a pad/complex more for Vulcan in a heavier configuration that new Glenn.

New Shepherd was all about developing reusable boosters and autonomous flight controls, I don't think it was ever meant to have much more of an application than that. They're taking everything they learned from NS and throwing it into New Glenn, hopefully soon.

I really want to see New Glenn do well and I think it will, just slower than anyone wants. Hard not to be a SpaceX fanboy with how public they are with their development but I think BO is just as capable. Their setup across from the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex is impressive (flew over it on a random heli tour the day before Demo-2 launched)

YellowPot_97 said:

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View from inside Blue Horizon and Mannequin Skywalker

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Awesome footage. I bet Sheppard would have loved to have a view like that. I wonder how loud it is in there during ascent. Sound like that large capsule rings like a bell.

Decay said:

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So they're a high-altitude tourist or research platform?

I'd guess there's a market but you're not exactly cornering a big one.

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Hmmm, suborbital trip or the moon. Yeah, I'll take a moon trip please.

YellowPot_97 said:

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View from inside Blue Horizon and Mannequin Skywalker

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Understand this is an old video, but I hadn't ever seen it so it's still really cool. Some observations:

• 1. Super loud under acceleration from the booster
• 2. Cool to see the sky slowly change from blue to black as they approach the Karman line
• 3. One MECO happens, you immediately see the dust particles start floating around
• 4. Stage separation was cool, and looked a little violent for the passengers
• 5. Amazing how fast the atmosphere gets thick. You can barely hear it when the capsule starts going back through but it's really quick to being loud again.
• 6. That landing, OUCH. Seemed like it was going WAY TOO FAST right before touchdown. I hope they come up with a crash couch for the passengers otherwise there may be some broken ribs.

Malachi Constant said:

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YellowPot_97 said:

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View from inside Blue Horizon and Mannequin Skywalker

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Understand this is an old video, but I hadn't ever seen it so it's still really cool. Some observations:

• 1. Super loud under acceleration from the booster
• 2. Cool to see the sky slowly change from blue to black as they approach the Karman line
• 3. One MECO happens, you immediately see the dust particles start floating around
• 4. Stage separation was cool, and looked a little violent for the passengers
• 5. Amazing how fast the atmosphere gets thick. You can barely hear it when the capsule starts going back through but it's really quick to being loud again.
• 6. That landing, OUCH. Seemed like it was going WAY TOO FAST right before touchdown. I hope they come up with a crash couch for the passengers otherwise there may be some broken ribs.

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It actual fires retro rockets and touches down relatively gently. Believe the landing speeds are lower then Soyuz.