Two words. "cost" and "plus"YellAg2004 said:Quote:
Bechtel way underestimated the complexity
In what world should that be NASA/the taxpayer's responsibility. Are these aerospace contracts so contractor-friendly that they are essentially at zero risk for any poor/faulty assumptions made when they bid it?
If NASA is making changes, there should be costs that are not Bechtel's responsibility to eat, but why should they not be eating the rest of the overrun/delay?
SpaceX and other space news updates
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Our government is afraid companies wouldn't want to bid on their projects unless every contract is a blank check
I figured that was likely the case, but why would something this "straight forward" need to be on a cost+ contract?
It would seem that the whole industry outside of SpaceX has simply survived on the premise that they're doing rocket science and it's complex, hard, and expensive so astronomical cost overruns (pun slightly intended) and missed schedules should be expected and summarily excused to no end.
Now Elon and SpaceX have come along and pulled the curtain back and everyone is seeing how much of a **** show the industry is, and the legacy players seem unable to adapt and just want to hide behind "rocket science is complex, hard, and expensive" to continue to avoid any semblance of accountability.
It would seem that the whole industry outside of SpaceX has simply survived on the premise that they're doing rocket science and it's complex, hard, and expensive so astronomical cost overruns (pun slightly intended) and missed schedules should be expected and summarily excused to no end.
Now Elon and SpaceX have come along and pulled the curtain back and everyone is seeing how much of a **** show the industry is, and the legacy players seem unable to adapt and just want to hide behind "rocket science is complex, hard, and expensive" to continue to avoid any semblance of accountability.
Nah... People are getting paid off. That's the only explanation.Decay said:
Our government is afraid companies wouldn't want to bid on their projects unless every contract is a blank check
Cool inside peak at the top floor of Mega Bay 2.
Come with me.... to Mars!
— Steve Jurvetson (@FutureJurvetson) October 16, 2024
I finished going through my photos from our night on Starbase, and the historic Starship launch. They are all here, and free for reuse: https://t.co/drrUCi74ln pic.twitter.com/WFLiboFqk8
Think about the industry in general. It's so circular - you have politicians that become executives at companies that get government contracts. They lobby the politicians right back.
It's just a taxpayer-funded grifting operation. And over time it just gets less and less efficient as they maximize every nook and cranny of moneymaking and lose all incentive to streamline. Highest grass gets cut and therefore anyone who isn't onboard gets weeded out.
It's not just aerospace but in this case I think it's a very specific circumstance because as mentioned it's really really hard. So the incredible barrier to entry has insulated competition because you need to be Elon-level rich to participate and even then it's rarely enough. Plenty of rich people have tried. The same system protects itself, as evidenced by all the hoops SpaceX has to jump through every time they break a glass ceiling.
It's just a taxpayer-funded grifting operation. And over time it just gets less and less efficient as they maximize every nook and cranny of moneymaking and lose all incentive to streamline. Highest grass gets cut and therefore anyone who isn't onboard gets weeded out.
It's not just aerospace but in this case I think it's a very specific circumstance because as mentioned it's really really hard. So the incredible barrier to entry has insulated competition because you need to be Elon-level rich to participate and even then it's rarely enough. Plenty of rich people have tried. The same system protects itself, as evidenced by all the hoops SpaceX has to jump through every time they break a glass ceiling.
Whoa, incredible job of tracking the booster coming back. Amazing.
Awesome videography. I love it that you can hear the excitement in any language. Catching that booster was truly a remarkable achievment.PJYoung said:
Whoa, incredible job of tracking the booster coming back. Amazing.
Every time I watch this I still cant believe that they did that on try number 1.. just amazing accomplishmentPJYoung said:
Whoa, incredible job of tracking the booster coming back. Amazing.
Man touring SpaceX would be so badass.
Those sonic booms are no joke. Sound like a battleship firing in a canyon.
It was awesome
Decay said:
Those sonic booms are no joke. Sound like a battleship firing in a canyon.
I can't wait to hear it and see it in person. Hopefully on a day with perfect weather like with this flight.
I wonder how many people in Mexico say "Elon no diseña los cohetes. No es ingeniero."
Checking in on Blue Origin this am.
They presently list over 1000 open positions, with around half at KSC. A chance it launches/lands the booster in a month;
While not as exciting as starship, it's a huge rocket;
I haven't seen an NET date in November yet.
I lived in cape Canaveral for 6 months, and in the area for a total of 12 months.
— Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams (@WR4NYGov) October 15, 2024
I’d ballpark it at 2-1 Blue Origin. Their building next to KSC is huge.
But it’s Blue’s headquarters and operations. SpaceX HQ and R&D are in places like Austin and Hawthorne
They presently list over 1000 open positions, with around half at KSC. A chance it launches/lands the booster in a month;
Nasa removed the Mars probe Escapade from the inaugural vehicle because they missed the window on that.Quote:
Dave Limp, Blue Origin's CEO, explains that the company had what he called a "cool history" of naming key hardware. "We're calling New Glenn's first booster 'So You're Telling Me There's a Chance'. Why? No one has landed a reusable booster on the first try. Yet, we're going for it, and humbly submit having good confidence in landing it. But like I said a couple of weeks ago, if we don't, we'll learn and keep trying until we do."
Limp was talking to CNBC's Michael Sheetz, and referring to Blue Origin's powerful BE-4 rocket engine already successfully used on October 4th by the United Launch Alliance on its giant Vulcan Centaur rockets.
But much depends on successful integration of seven of these engines into the New Glenn reusable rocket and then a flawless debut flight for the vehicle which will eventually carry Amazon's Project Kuiper broadband satellites.
New Glenn had a successful first ground test back on September 23rd, and another on September 24th.
The timing of these pre-launch tests is crucial especially given the multitude of delays on the rocket. Development of the New Glenn rocket started before 2013 and was formally announced in 2016, with an inaugural flight planned for 2020. After numerous delays, as of September 2024, the first launch is expected to take place no earlier than November 2024, carrying a prototype Blue Ring spacecraft.
Then, and assuming all goes well, the heavy lift New Glenn rocket will start carrying numerous Kuiper satellites on each flight. Back in April 2022 Amazon ordered 27 New Glenn rockets to help with the Kuiper 3236 mission. Each flight is capable of lifting 45 metric tonnes of cargo to Low Earth orbit.
While not as exciting as starship, it's a huge rocket;
👀New Glenn flight 1 is getting close, the first stage is expected to head to Launch Complex 36 for final integrated testing and launch preparation in the very near future.
— Derek Newsome (@DerekdotSpace) October 16, 2024
Flight 1 is as of writing still scheduled for a November liftoff.
📸Blue Origin via @davill https://t.co/ylqODcZzd1 pic.twitter.com/YTw0O1kGEo
Some of you recently asked additional questions about Comet, the thermal protection system we created for #NewGlenn, and whether we’ll paint it on our vehicle. We could—but have chosen not to for a variety of reasons, including adding unnecessary weight. It has been applied on… pic.twitter.com/FIs8ZmDWXm
— Dave Limp (@davill) September 11, 2024
I haven't seen an NET date in November yet.
That looks way closer to the towers than I thought. Do they have to clear out all those buildings when they do a launch?PJYoung said:
Cool inside peak at the top floor of Mega Bay 2.Come with me.... to Mars!
— Steve Jurvetson (@FutureJurvetson) October 16, 2024
I finished going through my photos from our night on Starbase, and the historic Starship launch. They are all here, and free for reuse: https://t.co/drrUCi74ln pic.twitter.com/WFLiboFqk8
So was the booster engine section glowing red hot from air friction during re-entry? And it survived that? It looked like the non-lit engine section was all on fire for a time while it was in the landing stage.
Here is a great close up of the chine that lost its skin from insta.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBMrrb8OpyS/?igsh=MXEyYTY4ZTEzZnp6ZQ==
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBMrrb8OpyS/?igsh=MXEyYTY4ZTEzZnp6ZQ==
Centerpole90 said:
Here is a great close up of the chine that lost its skin from insta.
https://instagr.am/p/DBMrrb8OpyS
LuoJi said:
So was the booster engine section glowing red hot from air friction during re-entry? And it survived that? It looked like the non-lit engine section was all on fire for a time while it was in the landing stage.
Wasn't friction, definitely fire. Probably just trapped gases from cutting and relighting the engines.
Disagree. Musk said that it was due to aerodynamic forces and heating. They were warped due to it and Musk said it will be an easy fix.YellowPot_97 said:LuoJi said:
So was the booster engine section glowing red hot from air friction during re-entry? And it survived that? It looked like the non-lit engine section was all on fire for a time while it was in the landing stage.
Wasn't friction, definitely fire. Probably just trapped gases from cutting and relighting the engines.
The engines from state 2 did warp the grid fins though. So that is something they need to figure out.
The re-entry heating caused the outer ring of raptors to become bent. This is likely because those engines aren't used in the landing burn and therefore did not have fuel flowing through the nozzles. (The engine bells are actually cooled by pumping cryogenic propellant through them).
The inner engines were being actively cooled because they were going to be used for the landing burn. That's why they didn't bend.
The good news is they already have a way to cool the other engines, they may have to pump a minimum amount of fuel through those bells to keep them cool during reentry.
The inner engines were being actively cooled because they were going to be used for the landing burn. That's why they didn't bend.
The good news is they already have a way to cool the other engines, they may have to pump a minimum amount of fuel through those bells to keep them cool during reentry.
This is such a crazy concept.
Using fuel/Lox to cool the engine bells has been done for a long time. It hasn't been a long term problem to keep them cool while not running on the descent at thousands of miles per hour in the lower atmosphere, though. Landing engine chills for a methalox engine are a totally fresh problem, but related to pre-launch ones.
The interesting thing is that the SH booster itself actually doesn't go as high as the F9 1st stage, so I'd expect SpaceX to figure this out pretty quick, anyway. Obviously some stuff went wrong (why the fire suppression system was activated) but the overall metallurgical deformations which can be measured precisely because it was safely recovered will be very valuable. A lot more force (and its corollary in a rocket: heat) was needed to slow this thing down to a standstill (vs. a hover slam) and so the engines around the center firing Raptors (on landing) were exposed to more heat than is the case with an F9, I would guess.
The interesting thing is that the SH booster itself actually doesn't go as high as the F9 1st stage, so I'd expect SpaceX to figure this out pretty quick, anyway. Obviously some stuff went wrong (why the fire suppression system was activated) but the overall metallurgical deformations which can be measured precisely because it was safely recovered will be very valuable. A lot more force (and its corollary in a rocket: heat) was needed to slow this thing down to a standstill (vs. a hover slam) and so the engines around the center firing Raptors (on landing) were exposed to more heat than is the case with an F9, I would guess.
Damnit Jim, I'm a biologist not a rocket scientist.
But seriously, I'm new to the rocket game only since SpaceX made it "normalized" that itself is one of the coolest things ever. Watching the stream of the launch, landing and catch, then return and splashdown with my 9 and 6 year old boys is one of the coolest things about being alive right now and experiencing this space era.
But seriously, I'm new to the rocket game only since SpaceX made it "normalized" that itself is one of the coolest things ever. Watching the stream of the launch, landing and catch, then return and splashdown with my 9 and 6 year old boys is one of the coolest things about being alive right now and experiencing this space era.
I'm basically an aerospace engineering drop out. But Tim does a pretty good job here and is where I remembered this stuff from (he has a bunch on engine designs/challenges/startup etc);
nortex97 said:
Checking in on Blue Origin this am.I lived in cape Canaveral for 6 months, and in the area for a total of 12 months.
— Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams (@WR4NYGov) October 15, 2024
I’d ballpark it at 2-1 Blue Origin. Their building next to KSC is huge.
But it’s Blue’s headquarters and operations. SpaceX HQ and R&D are in places like Austin and Hawthorne
They presently list over 1000 open positions, with around half at KSC. A chance it launches/lands the booster in a month;Nasa removed the Mars probe Escapade from the inaugural vehicle because they missed the window on that.Quote:
Dave Limp, Blue Origin's CEO, explains that the company had what he called a "cool history" of naming key hardware. "We're calling New Glenn's first booster 'So You're Telling Me There's a Chance'. Why? No one has landed a reusable booster on the first try. Yet, we're going for it, and humbly submit having good confidence in landing it. But like I said a couple of weeks ago, if we don't, we'll learn and keep trying until we do."
Limp was talking to CNBC's Michael Sheetz, and referring to Blue Origin's powerful BE-4 rocket engine already successfully used on October 4th by the United Launch Alliance on its giant Vulcan Centaur rockets.
But much depends on successful integration of seven of these engines into the New Glenn reusable rocket and then a flawless debut flight for the vehicle which will eventually carry Amazon's Project Kuiper broadband satellites.
New Glenn had a successful first ground test back on September 23rd, and another on September 24th.
The timing of these pre-launch tests is crucial especially given the multitude of delays on the rocket. Development of the New Glenn rocket started before 2013 and was formally announced in 2016, with an inaugural flight planned for 2020. After numerous delays, as of September 2024, the first launch is expected to take place no earlier than November 2024, carrying a prototype Blue Ring spacecraft.
Then, and assuming all goes well, the heavy lift New Glenn rocket will start carrying numerous Kuiper satellites on each flight. Back in April 2022 Amazon ordered 27 New Glenn rockets to help with the Kuiper 3236 mission. Each flight is capable of lifting 45 metric tonnes of cargo to Low Earth orbit.
While not as exciting as starship, it's a huge rocket;👀New Glenn flight 1 is getting close, the first stage is expected to head to Launch Complex 36 for final integrated testing and launch preparation in the very near future.
— Derek Newsome (@DerekdotSpace) October 16, 2024
Flight 1 is as of writing still scheduled for a November liftoff.
📸Blue Origin via @davill https://t.co/ylqODcZzd1 pic.twitter.com/YTw0O1kGEoSome of you recently asked additional questions about Comet, the thermal protection system we created for #NewGlenn, and whether we’ll paint it on our vehicle. We could—but have chosen not to for a variety of reasons, including adding unnecessary weight. It has been applied on… pic.twitter.com/FIs8ZmDWXm
— Dave Limp (@davill) September 11, 2024
I haven't seen an NET date in November yet.
Why are they so slow? This feels like how we would say Jimbo is holding the playbook back to the point where we lose or almost lose so we can save the good plays for Bama and the Playoffs. But what is really happening is we suck.
My suspicion is that BO is taking the more traditional space approach. Design, model, small scale test, model some more, build small pieces and test them, test individual components, redesign, retest.... They'll say they're continuing to make progress, but it's glacier pace slow. Sure, eventually they'll get an entire system put together, test that, and it'll still have a failure that sends something back to the drawing board and they seemingly start the whole process over again.Premium said:nortex97 said:
Checking in on Blue Origin this am.I lived in cape Canaveral for 6 months, and in the area for a total of 12 months.
— Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams (@WR4NYGov) October 15, 2024
I’d ballpark it at 2-1 Blue Origin. Their building next to KSC is huge.
But it’s Blue’s headquarters and operations. SpaceX HQ and R&D are in places like Austin and Hawthorne
They presently list over 1000 open positions, with around half at KSC. A chance it launches/lands the booster in a month;Nasa removed the Mars probe Escapade from the inaugural vehicle because they missed the window on that.Quote:
Dave Limp, Blue Origin's CEO, explains that the company had what he called a "cool history" of naming key hardware. "We're calling New Glenn's first booster 'So You're Telling Me There's a Chance'. Why? No one has landed a reusable booster on the first try. Yet, we're going for it, and humbly submit having good confidence in landing it. But like I said a couple of weeks ago, if we don't, we'll learn and keep trying until we do."
Limp was talking to CNBC's Michael Sheetz, and referring to Blue Origin's powerful BE-4 rocket engine already successfully used on October 4th by the United Launch Alliance on its giant Vulcan Centaur rockets.
But much depends on successful integration of seven of these engines into the New Glenn reusable rocket and then a flawless debut flight for the vehicle which will eventually carry Amazon's Project Kuiper broadband satellites.
New Glenn had a successful first ground test back on September 23rd, and another on September 24th.
The timing of these pre-launch tests is crucial especially given the multitude of delays on the rocket. Development of the New Glenn rocket started before 2013 and was formally announced in 2016, with an inaugural flight planned for 2020. After numerous delays, as of September 2024, the first launch is expected to take place no earlier than November 2024, carrying a prototype Blue Ring spacecraft.
Then, and assuming all goes well, the heavy lift New Glenn rocket will start carrying numerous Kuiper satellites on each flight. Back in April 2022 Amazon ordered 27 New Glenn rockets to help with the Kuiper 3236 mission. Each flight is capable of lifting 45 metric tonnes of cargo to Low Earth orbit.
While not as exciting as starship, it's a huge rocket;👀New Glenn flight 1 is getting close, the first stage is expected to head to Launch Complex 36 for final integrated testing and launch preparation in the very near future.
— Derek Newsome (@DerekdotSpace) October 16, 2024
Flight 1 is as of writing still scheduled for a November liftoff.
📸Blue Origin via @davill https://t.co/ylqODcZzd1 pic.twitter.com/YTw0O1kGEoSome of you recently asked additional questions about Comet, the thermal protection system we created for #NewGlenn, and whether we’ll paint it on our vehicle. We could—but have chosen not to for a variety of reasons, including adding unnecessary weight. It has been applied on… pic.twitter.com/FIs8ZmDWXm
— Dave Limp (@davill) September 11, 2024
I haven't seen an NET date in November yet.
Why are they so slow? This feels like how we would say Jimbo is holding the playbook back to the point where we lose or almost lose so we can save the good plays for Bama and the Playoffs. But what is really happening is we suck.
Elon builds it, has everyone stand way back, and they light the thing off and see what happens. With Starship, they've blown two of them up, crashed one somewhere on the other side of the world, and soft landed two of them on the other side of the world, all while RTLS the booster from at or around the Karman Line. They've learned more in 2 years of flight testing than their competition knows about their own subsystem components.
It's just a completely different school of thought that the rest of the space industry simply isn't capable of stomaching.
I'll wager my paycheck that SpaceX has tossed more Raptors into the drink in the last 6 months than BO has produced in working BE-4s.
Unless they're finally building some inventory... SpaceX may have thrown more raptors in the drink last Sunday than BO has built all year.
They've only flown 4 I think; 2 each on Vulcan's..
EDIT... They should have the engines built for the New Glenn test flight at some point this year so there's another 7 BE-4s and a pair of BE-3s
They've only flown 4 I think; 2 each on Vulcan's..
EDIT... They should have the engines built for the New Glenn test flight at some point this year so there's another 7 BE-4s and a pair of BE-3s
Don't forget the recovery of 33 flight-proven raptors. They have hours of runtime data from a single launch and can still examine every one of them.
SpaceX has largely also entirely rebuilt the existing launch tower by incorporating a bidet system and replacing most of the hardware/tanks that feed into it (plus the connections etc.), while also constructing a second one and the beginning of a third in Florida. All the GSE/systems around proofing/fueling/testing the vehicle for launch are more an advancement of processes (and investment) than the hardware expended in flight imho. The starbase manufacturing facility, as well, has been entirely re-imagined and built throughout the process too, to say nothing of the changes between Raptor 1.0 to 3.0 (which has yet to fly at all).
These are/have been merely test articles, essentially, not prototypes of a 'final design' for which they have contracted federal customers.
These are/have been merely test articles, essentially, not prototypes of a 'final design' for which they have contracted federal customers.
Just a reminder about how big the booster is.
Who?mikejones! said:Centerpole90 said:
Here is a great close up of the chine that lost its skin from insta.
https://instagr.am/p/DBMrrb8OpyS
After seeing the catch it makes a lot of sense to get rid of the heat shielding and as much of the external parts as possible on raptor 3
The flame backwash into the engine compartment after relighting the engines and the heat from the friction on the way down was much more than I would expect
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