SpaceX and other space news updates

1,454,310 Views | 16093 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Decay
Decay
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I do think we're about 5-10 years from Falcon's reusability being industry-standard.

That puts Starship around 15-20 years.

Given a 20 year head start, as long as the government doesn't do something catastrophic to SpaceX, there is practically no limit to what Starship enables.

It will be 100x more expensive to launch on anything else. And SpaceX will still make tons of money. Someone should come up with a list of publicly traded SpaceX-adjacent companies for us to buy until they go IPO.
NASAg03
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I didn't see this posted earlier; sorry if it was. But this is a great article from Eric Burger on how John Culberson was the one guy that pushed his entire career to explore Europa, not because of politics, but because of his own passion for space exploration.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/were-finally-going-to-the-solar-systems-most-intriguing-but-unexplored-frontier/
YellowPot_97
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How can the common man, like myself, take advantage of this new paradigm?? I don't think most of the world realizes what a revolution this is. This is like being at the start of the Industrial Revolution.
duff el pud
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Here's a start:

Starship uses steel from Steel Dynamics Inc.

SpaceX has 6 subsidiaries worldwide:

Dogleg Park Llc - United States
Pioneer Aerospace Corp - United States
Spacex Sa - Luxembourg
Starlink Services Llc - United States
Space Exploration Technologies Corp - United States
Swarm Technologies Inc - United States


As for subcontractors, there's the rub:

"There's a YouTube video of Elon speaking somewhere in 2003 saying ... "we're really just a systems integrator, we're buying things from other people", but by the time I showed up in 2005 that had completely turned around and pretty much everything was getting done in-house.

And you can see why when you see the interactions with these suppliers, particularly the ones in the space industry. They think they're the only ones who can make this widget or who have the secret sauce, and when you say "no, you're too expensive", they say "well, that's what it is". And they're used to customers who, if they slip the schedule and double the price, the customer shrugs and goes back to headquarters and says, "well, it's gonna take twice as long and it's gonna cost twice as much", and that's how things go in a traditional government run program.

But SpaceX would say "no, that's not acceptable", and they'd cancel the contract. And sometimes these suppliers were literally scoffing on the phone as you hung up, and call you back a few months later saying "so, have you changed your mind yet?" And being able to say to them that "no, if you can do it, then maybe somebody else can do it too", like either SpaceX figured out how to do it themselves, because they hired some smart people and gave them the resources and tools, or you find another supplier with maybe a non-space version and you upgrade and qualify it for space.

And now what you've done, this backward supplier has bred a competitor for themselves, where they're not used to competition. I mean, many of the suppliers in this industry would just go out of business in a heartbeat if competition were actually introduced.

So really that's the game changing stuff that SpaceX has been doing: bringing stuff in-house, not just because it gives them control of cost and schedule, but because the space suppliers, traditional suppliers just don't get it. They're not used to being held to schedules and budgets.

And that's not true of everybody, but there is list of anecdotes I could tell you about suppliers with this attitude. And in each case either SpaceX brings it in-house and makes it successfully, or they find another supplier and upgrade it, and that supplier is usually thrilled to have a whole new market opened up for them."

Centerpole90
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AG
From a friend this morning…


bmks270
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Decay said:

I do think we're about 5-10 years from Falcon's reusability being industry-standard.

That puts Starship around 15-20 years.

Given a 20 year head start, as long as the government doesn't do something catastrophic to SpaceX, there is practically no limit to what Starship enables.

It will be 100x more expensive to launch on anything else. And SpaceX will still make tons of money. Someone should come up with a list of publicly traded SpaceX-adjacent companies for us to buy until they go IPO.


A public SpaceX doesn't build starship or aim for mars.

Decay
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bmks270 said:

Decay said:

I do think we're about 5-10 years from Falcon's reusability being industry-standard.

That puts Starship around 15-20 years.

Given a 20 year head start, as long as the government doesn't do something catastrophic to SpaceX, there is practically no limit to what Starship enables.

It will be 100x more expensive to launch on anything else. And SpaceX will still make tons of money. Someone should come up with a list of publicly traded SpaceX-adjacent companies for us to buy until they go IPO.


A public SpaceX doesn't build starship or sim for mars.



Maybe not. But maybe once they're big enough it won't matter who's in charge
nortex97
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Who's in charge always matters, imho, whether it's the US, SpaceX, Boeing, Russia, China, Aggie football, or anything else of consequence.
Ag87H2O
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Centerpole90 said:

From a friend this morning…



Interesting that bottom piece of the large chine lost it's skin. The force of the wind flow coming back has to be pretty intense. I imagine they will learn from it and strengthen it for the next launch/recovery.

Other than that, this booster looks fairly pristine. It's amazing it can hold up to all the forces it is submitted to with launch, stage separation, and recovery. It's a fantastic machine designed by brilliant engineers.

fullback44
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duff el pud said:

Here's a start:

Starship uses steel from Steel Dynamics Inc.

SpaceX has 6 subsidiaries worldwide:

Dogleg Park Llc - United States
Pioneer Aerospace Corp - United States
Spacex Sa - Luxembourg
Starlink Services Llc - United States
Space Exploration Technologies Corp - United States
Swarm Technologies Inc - United States


As for subcontractors, there's the rub:

"There's a YouTube video of Elon speaking somewhere in 2003 saying ... "we're really just a systems integrator, we're buying things from other people", but by the time I showed up in 2005 that had completely turned around and pretty much everything was getting done in-house.

And you can see why when you see the interactions with these suppliers, particularly the ones in the space industry. They think they're the only ones who can make this widget or who have the secret sauce, and when you say "no, you're too expensive", they say "well, that's what it is". And they're used to customers who, if they slip the schedule and double the price, the customer shrugs and goes back to headquarters and says, "well, it's gonna take twice as long and it's gonna cost twice as much", and that's how things go in a traditional government run program.

But SpaceX would say "no, that's not acceptable", and they'd cancel the contract. And sometimes these suppliers were literally scoffing on the phone as you hung up, and call you back a few months later saying "so, have you changed your mind yet?" And being able to say to them that "no, if you can do it, then maybe somebody else can do it too", like either SpaceX figured out how to do it themselves, because they hired some smart people and gave them the resources and tools, or you find another supplier with maybe a non-space version and you upgrade and qualify it for space.

And now what you've done, this backward supplier has bred a competitor for themselves, where they're not used to competition. I mean, many of the suppliers in this industry would just go out of business in a heartbeat if competition were actually introduced.

So really that's the game changing stuff that SpaceX has been doing: bringing stuff in-house, not just because it gives them control of cost and schedule, but because the space suppliers, traditional suppliers just don't get it. They're not used to being held to schedules and budgets.

And that's not true of everybody, but there is list of anecdotes I could tell you about suppliers with this attitude. And in each case either SpaceX brings it in-house and makes it successfully, or they find another supplier and upgrade it, and that supplier is usually thrilled to have a whole new market opened up for them."




This is where a private business owner wins in this game .. the big government entities don't care about cost because they are using the public's tax money and they are all getting handouts so it's all one big cozy happy family running up cost .. a private owner says FU I'm not paying those prices and you can go F yourself … the supplier calls back In 2 months and Elon tells them to go F themselves again .. love his business model
Centerpole90
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No doubt about the aero forces on the booster; I mean, watching it come it at a much flatter AOA than I expected drove home that it is both falling and flying!

Interesting comment in the NSF recovery video this afternoon about the ripped chine. I hope this indexes at the right time (14:28) but they suspect some gas build up caused an internal explosion vs. external aero forces ripping at the skin.

https://www.youtube.com/live/KSCWaT_ff_8?si=HJwDc_hAPjT3Dmli&t=878
nortex97
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Not exactly breaking space news but…pretty awesome, imho.



Ag87H2O
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fullback44 said:



This is where a private business owner wins in this game .. the big government entities don't care about cost because they are using the public's tax money and they are all getting handouts so it's all one big cozy happy family running up cost .. a private owner says FU I'm not paying those prices and you can go F yourself … the supplier calls back In 2 months and Elon tells them to go F themselves again .. love his business model
It's a lot easier to do when you have a couple of hundred billion dollars.
Ag_of_08
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No idea what happened, wrong thread though.
bthotugigem05
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One of the engine bells on the booster after its return, SpaceX has some jokes.

will25u
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Sea Speed
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That's so cool, I didn't realize they accelerate the booster down to get some separation from starship. At least that's what I assume it's for, as well as get it in the proper trajectory.
will25u
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NASAg03
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Intuitive Machines is releasing a four part podcast series discussing the IM-1 mission.

ABATTBQ11
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will25u said:




There's more to it than that...

For one, NASA is estimating half that. OIG is essentially saying costs will increase from now until it's completed. That's not to say it won't happen, but that's just their estimate on what it could cost and not what it will cost.

For two, it's not just a tower. For all its wonder, SpaceX's launch tower is stationary. This one is supposed to be mobile and transported on the crawler. Why? No idea, but it's kind of apples and oranges.

That's not to say the whole thing isn't a boondoggle. NASA's projection is still 3x the original estimate, and Bechtel of delivering years late. The failures are apparently on both of them. Bechtel way underestimated the complexity, and NASA supposedly kept making changes.


ETA Also, the Burj Khalifa was built with practically slave labor.
aTmAg
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ABATTBQ11 said:

will25u said:




There's more to it than that...

For one, NASA is estimating half that. OIG is essentially saying costs will increase from now until it's completed. That's not to say it won't happen, but that's just their estimate on what it could cost and not what it will cost.

For two, it's not just a tower. For all its wonder, SpaceX's launch tower is stationary. This one is supposed to be mobile and transported on the crawler. Why? No idea, but it's kind of apples and oranges.

That's not to say the whole thing isn't a boondoggle. NASA's projection is still 3x the original estimate, and Bechtel of delivering years late. The failures are apparently on both of them. Bechtel way underestimated the complexity, and NASA supposedly kept making changes.
Didn't they also screw up the first one and will basically have to build it again?
ABATTBQ11
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I don't know if they necessarily messed it up. This one is bigger and designed for a different SLS block, through. It's supposed to be much more capable. I think it's more just another iteration, but maybe they did just underdesign the first.
PJYoung
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Quote:

That's not to say it won't happen, but that's just their estimate on what it could cost and not what it will cost.

Correct.

Final cost will be way way way over 2.7 billion.
PJYoung
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I think last year Elon estimated that the TOTAL cost of Starbase was around 3 billion.
hph6203
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Can it be retrofitted to launch and catch a Starship? Because it seems like it's gonna need to be retrofitted to launch and catch a Starship.
TexAgs91
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NASAg03 said:

I didn't see this posted earlier; sorry if it was. But this is a great article from Eric Burger on how John Culberson was the one guy that pushed his entire career to explore Europa, not because of politics, but because of his own passion for space exploration.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/were-finally-going-to-the-solar-systems-most-intriguing-but-unexplored-frontier/


It's been people I wouldn't have expected to move NASA forward that have. Like Culbertson, a congressman and O'Keefe, a former bean counter with the Navy. Not Astronauts like Bolden. But Bolden was probably a DEI hire in every role he had.
TexAgs91
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fullback44 said:

… the supplier calls back In 2 months and Elon tells them to go F themselves again .. love his business model


Knowing Elon, that's probably exactly what he says.
txags92
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hph6203 said:

Can it be retrofitted to launch and catch a Starship? Because it seems like it's gonna need to be retrofitted to launch and catch a Starship.
SpaceX is already planning to build their own at KSC and will likely build it for a fraction of what we are paying Bechtel for their SLS launcher. We could save a ton of money by cutting SLS entirely from the budget. There is really no point to continuing to throw good money after bad at a project that is destined for the same scrap heap as Boeing and its Starliner.
nortex97
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PJYoung said:

Quote:

That's not to say it won't happen, but that's just their estimate on what it could cost and not what it will cost.

Correct.

Final cost will be way way way over 2.7 billion.
Closer to double. And mobile launch tower 2 won't be ready for Artemis 4 until 2029. Still no final design, btw.





Current/original one was designed for Aries, a much smaller rocket, after all, and based on…the Saturn V system. Please don't watch the video above, it will likely only make you mad.
TexAgs91
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Sea Speed said:

That's so cool, I didn't realize they accelerate the booster down to get some separation from starship. At least that's what I assume it's for, as well as get it in the proper trajectory.


I think they also use the thrust from ship impacting rotating grid fins on the booster to help with separation and turning the booster around.
Decay
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I like how the only real arguments for SLS is that "it's cheaper than Ukraine" and "we need 2 launchers" as if they couldn't get 10 new launchers for the cost of SLS.

If they had just split half the money intended for SLS between SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Firefly, Relativity Space, ABL, Virgin Galactic, and maybe ULA then we'd have all the backup vendors you could ever want and you'd still spend less money. Especially considering the amount of time and money we've thrown at resurrecting the Shuttle program's corpse to get the engines and SRBs.
PJYoung
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nortex97 said:






Thanks for the video.

At 1.5 speed it's pretty good.

The dude really takes his time talking.
txags92
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Decay said:

I like how the only real arguments for SLS is that "it's cheaper than Ukraine" and "we need 2 launchers" as if they couldn't get 10 new launchers for the cost of SLS.

If they had just split half the money intended for SLS between SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, Firefly, Relativity Space, ABL, Virgin Galactic, and maybe ULA then we'd have all the backup vendors you could ever want and you'd still spend less money. Especially considering the amount of time and money we've thrown at resurrecting the Shuttle program's corpse to get the engines and SRBs.
I fully expect Elon to land a payload on Mars before Artemis ever launches.
Ag87H2O
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nortex97 said:

PJYoung said:

Quote:

That's not to say it won't happen, but that's just their estimate on what it could cost and not what it will cost.

Correct.

Final cost will be way way way over 2.7 billion.
Closer to double. And mobile launch tower 2 won't be ready for Artemis 4 until 2029. Still no final design, btw.





Current/original one was designed for Aries, a much smaller rocket, after all, and based on…the Saturn V system. Please don't watch the video above, it will likely only make you mad.
I listened and you were right. It is infuriating. For an institution I used to have so much respect and admiration for - NASA is broken. It pains me to say it because I grew up and have lived in the Houston area all my life and have numerous friends that work at JSC up to and including a couple of astronauts, but it has become a bureaucratic safe haven that is continuously over budget, behind schedule, riddled with failures, and making excuses. It seems like for them and the contractors they hire, outside of SpaceX, underperformance is the understood and accepted norm.

This is a launch tower, not a manned spacecraft. We've been building those for 75 years. Complex? Yes, but it's not rocket science. This one is projected to be 6-700% over budget and 5-6 years late. This should be absolutely unacceptable. Heads should roll.

I pray that Trump wins and puts Elon in charge of weeding out government waste and fraud, and that he starts with every component of NASA. That place needs a good cleaning out and complete restructuring. Accountability with real consequences for failure. Rant over.
YellAg2004
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Quote:

Bechtel way underestimated the complexity

In what world should that be NASA/the taxpayer's responsibility. Are these aerospace contracts so contractor-friendly that they are essentially at zero risk for any poor/faulty assumptions made when they bid it?

If NASA is making changes, there should be costs that are not Bechtel's responsibility to eat, but why should they not be eating the rest of the overrun/delay?
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