Tomorrow would be dancing around a front w clouds & a 60% chance of rain. Not that it will change their plans, but for we spectators and viewers it won't be the bluebird skies of the previous two flights.

yeah i was just coming here to post that Wednesday looks best for weather

Coastal fog (ala San Francisco if you're familiar) has been the worst I can remember in my lifetime

If it doesn't improve it won't be viewable from most areas. You will have to watch it from 48 maybe

SPI-FlatsCatter 84 said:

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Coastal fog (ala San Francisco if you're familiar) has been the worst I can remember in my lifetime

If it doesn't improve it won't be viewable from most areas. You will have to watch it from 48 maybe

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Front coming

Tonight's Starlink mission...



Edit: launch aborted. Will try again tomorrow

Out of curiosity, how many others have put down the $ for the Starlink deposit? I put mine in 2/13.

PJYoung said:

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yeah i was just coming here to post that Wednesday looks best for weather

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Elon must have gotten my message that I can't make it until Tuesday...

Hell has frozen over..... blue origin allowed photos of an allegedly new Glenn prototype to be leaked.

Around 7:20

Yeah it's great that they are finally making hardware, but they did just release that they have delayed the first new glenn launch to Q4 2022 (1 year slippage), and last week appropriately enough for Team Bezos, they blame the government (for not picking/trusting them);

Quote:

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Blue Origin said in a blog post that the "schedule has been refined to match the demand of Blue Origin's commercial customers," and specifically says it "follows the recent Space Force decision to not select New Glenn for the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 Launch Services Procurement (LSP)." Those awards were announced last August, and the two winners were the United Launch Alliance (ULA) and SpaceX, who prevailed over Blue Origin, and also Northrop Grumman. The launch service contracts that make up the awards begin in 2022, so it makes sense why Blue Origin had been pushing for a first launch of New Glenn by the end of this year in order to meet the needs of Space Force.

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Petty. Nice to see some hardware though, yet again, it does seem comparatively primitive vs. the Relativity additive processes.

With a track record of zero orbital launches ever, in 20 years of development, I think Space Force was quite right with their nonselection.

Aside; Rocket Lab just announced a new 8 ton launch vehicle in what I think is fair to describe as a colorful announcement (2024 target to launch). I think these are the Kiwi's but it's a US-based company; more competition/launchers is great.

Quote:

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"Rocket Lab solved small launch with Electron. Now we're unlocking a new category with Neutron," said Peter Beck, Rocket Lab founder and CEO. "We've listened to our customers and the message is clear - biggest doesn't always mean best when it comes to constellation deployment. Efficiently building the mega constellations of the future requires launching multiple satellites in batches to different orbital planes. It's a requirement that all too often sees large launch vehicles fly with payloads well below their full lift capacity, which is an incredibly expensive and inefficient way to build out a satellite constellation. Neutron's 8-ton lift capacity will make it ideally sized to deploy satellites in batches to specific orbital planes, creating a more targeted and streamlined approach to building out mega constellations."

Neutron will also provide a dedicated service to orbit for larger civil, defense and commercial payloads that need a level of schedule control and high-flight cadence not available on large and heavy lift rockets. Neutron will be capable of lifting 98% of all satellites forecast to launch through 2029 and will be able to introduce highly disruptive lower costs by leveraging Electron's heritage, launch sites and architecture.

The medium-lift Neutron rocket will be a two-stage launch vehicle that stands 40 meters (131 feet) tall with a 4.5-meter (14.7 ft) diameter fairing and a lift capacity of up to 8,000 kg (8 metric tons) to low-Earth orbit, 2,000 kg to the Moon (2 metric tons), and 1,500 kg to Mars and Venus (1.5 metric tons). Neutron will feature a reusable first stage designed to land on an ocean platform, enabling a high launch cadence and decreased launch costs for customers. Initially designed for satellite payloads, Neutron will also be capable of International Space Station (ISS) resupply and human spaceflight missions.

Neutron launches will take place from Virginia's Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport located at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility. By leveraging the existing launch pad and integration infrastructure at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, Rocket Lab eliminates the need to build a new pad, accelerating the timeline to first launch, expected in 2024.

Rocket Lab is assessing locations across America to establish a new state-of-the-art factory to support large-scale Neutron manufacturing, adding hundreds of jobs to the Rocket Lab team.

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https://www.rocketlabusa.com/about-us/updates/rocket-lab-unveils-plans-for-new-8-ton-class-reusable-rocket-for-mega-constellation-deployment/

Ok, last one this morning, sorry for triple post. Amusing tale of early spacex launches/facilities that perhaps make even Boca Chica seem serenely sophisticated.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/03/after-two-failures-spacex-needed-a-win-in-2008-would-it-get-one/

Quote:

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Everything seemed to be coming together for launch at the very end of the window, when Mother Nature intervened. At 3:20 pm, during the terminal phase of the countdown, a thunderstorm moved directly over Omelek. The rocket could not safely launch into a storm, but the range weather forecaster predicted the system would blow through quickly. Knowing all else was ready but the weather, Buzza managed to negotiate a ten-minute extension of the launch window with the range commander. Soon, the storm did pass. At 3:34 pm, Buzza gave the final go, and the Falcon 1 took flight. The white booster rose into the now-clearing sky, confidently soaring to what appeared to be a happy destiny.

The moment swept Dunn into something like an out-of-body experience. Seated at his console, he lost track of time during the Falcon 1's ascent. Over the course of two minutes and forty seconds, the Merlin engine performed beautifully as the first stage climbed into space. For Dunn, it all passed in what seemed like less than a minute, a mere flash in time. And at the end of it, his first-stage propulsion system had done its job.

Now the second stage would take over.

Then reality shook Dunn from his enchantment.

"When the anomaly occurred, I had my head down," Dunn said. "I was looking at data. And I could just hear this gasp. I looked up and by that point you could just see that things were not right. It took a little while to internalize. It was incredibly disappointing. The team was devastated around me." Some of his coworkers, in fact, were crying.

The gasp came from those watching the video monitor in the flight control room. A camera attached to the second stage, looking down, told the jarring story of what happened.

As the Merlin engine completed its burn, the rocket rose above the blue Pacific Ocean and white clouds far below. When the engine shut down, the spent first stage separated and began to fall away toward Earth. But then, before the first stage had dropped more than a few feet, it snapped back upward. To the horror of those watching, it thudded into the bottom of the second stage. In the kind of nightmare sequence that wakes a rocket scientist in a cold sweat, this collision sent the second stage tumbling out of control.

As the camera blinked out, it was clear the mission was doomed. The Falcon 1 rocket's first and second stages were plummeting back to the ground. With this failure, it seemed like SpaceX's trek to the stars might be over, too.

End of SpaceX?

In California, at SpaceX's headquarters, the celebratory mood quickly turned dreary. As usual, Tom Mueller sat beside Elon Musk during the launch, inside the mobile Command Van with access to the feeds from Kwaj. Mueller felt good as his Merlin engine burned hot. But unlike the previous flight, the robust Kestrel engine would not get the chance to ignite and boost its payload toward orbit. This felt crushing. The rocket had made it through the hardest part, the first stage, only to be tripped up again. To

Mueller's eyes, from the video feed, it appeared as though the stage separation system must have malfunctioned, causing the collision. In the heat of the moment, he expressed this opinion to Thompson.
The structures engineer, who bore responsibility for this part of the rocket, reacted defensively to these recriminations, believing Mueller's conclusion premature. "That's bull****," Thompson replied. "You've got to look at the data before you make that accusation."

Steve Davis was already looking at the data, and after an all-nighter, he figured out what happened first. As he pored over the video, frame by frame, Davis saw the actuators working. He confirmed there had been a full separation of the first and second stage. At another console he collected printouts of data sent back by the flight computer. And he noticed one curious bit of data, a non-zero acceleration of the first stage after separation. This, he realized, vindicated Thompson. Instead, Davis deduced the problem must have been caused by Mueller's new, regeneratively cooled engine.

Unlike its old ablative design, the Merlin 1C engine ran ambient temperature kerosene fuel through channels in its chamber and nozzle. The propulsion team had not properly accounted for all of this fuel at the end of the first-stage burn. When the flight computer commanded the main engine to shut down, its software allowed for only a brief passage of time before signaling the first stage to separate from the second stage. But once ignited, a rocket engine will burn whatever fuel is available. And some of this residual fuel in the cooling channels combined with a small amount of oxygen in the chamber to produce a very slight but catastrophic thrust.

"That one hurt almost as bad as Flight One, because it was so preventable," Mueller said....

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"Would there be a SpaceX in a few days?" Interesting history as we await a Starship launch/landing effort in a few days.

Update on why the F9 booster hit the ocean;

Quote:

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One of the Falcon 9's nine Merlin engines shut down Feb. 15 during ascent because of a hole in one of the covers, or "boots," around the top of each engine, Benji Reed, SpaceX's director of human spaceflight, said Monday at a NASA news conference. The hole allowed hot gas into the engine, which shut off as designed, Reed said. But that meant that the rocket had insufficient thrust during its landing burn to reach a drone ship stationed in the Atlantic Ocean.

The engine fault didn't prevent the rocket from lifting SpaceX's Starlink satellites into orbit. Reed said the boot was one of the oldest components on one of the company's older Falcon 9 rockets, which are designed to fly as many as 10 times without major overhauls.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration plans to "understand that anomaly" before the April flight with astronauts, Steve Stich, the agency's commercial crew manager, told reporters as he discussed that mission and a busy April at the space station.

"We will follow along with SpaceX's investigation and we will look at that," Stich said.

Boeing Delay

NASA also confirmed Monday that an April 2 test flight for Boeing Co.'s Starliner will be delayed. No new date has been set, the agency said. The delay was partly due to productivity losses from the extreme cold in Texas last month and widespread loss of power in the Houston area, NASA said.

Boeing's first test flight with astronauts is tentatively set for September, Stich said.

NASA also provided an update on several other items at the briefing:

• SpaceX's crewed launch scheduled for April 20 is likely to move a few days because of orbital mechanics and the space station's positioning
• NASA plans to relocate the SpaceX Dragon now at the station to a different node so that the crew arriving next month on another Dragon vehicle can berth in the now-occupied spot
• NASA wants to return the astronauts from SpaceX's Crew-1 mission, who are currently at the space station, before May 9
• SpaceX's next crewed flight will be with the Dragon vehicle that the company flew in May 2020 on its first test flight with astronauts
• NASA is nearing a new arrangement with Russia's space agency for additional seats on its Soyuz rocket, with an announcement expected this month. NASA officials said they are working to allow for Russian cosmonauts to fly aboard the Boeing and SpaceX vehicles while still using Soyuz for NASA astronauts.

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Spaceforce was absolutely right, It's just surprising to see them actually show an alleged prototype after years of acting like staying stone face and silent are the best way forward.

I say alledged, because that looks suspiciously like a mock up, but hey...

Video from the future of SN10

Where's the explosion?

What are they going to do with it if they land it?

LOL.

Launching starlink 17 supposedly today (believe it when I see it at this point).

Wednesday for Starship 10;

bthotugigem05 said:

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What are they going to do with it if they land it?

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My guess is pull the Raptors and do a very thorough inspection. Then they may try flying it again for more datapoints. It will really come down to the data they collect - if it's what they're expecting, then they may move on to SN15, which is supposedly the next "big" iteration of the design. If not, they'll probably fly 10, or 11 or 12 depending on 10's condition.

I was just reading that SN15 will be the next to fly....SN12-14 were scrapped because their engineering advancements have already made them outdated

Also, hearing first rumors of launch pushed back to Thursday.

15's not really ready to go yet, so I'd guess they would use SN10 up to 5 more times if they do finally get it right on the re-lights, likely trying small/software changes/fuel quantity changes along the way to see how it does.

The thing is the belly flop/flip is the most exciting part because it's so unusual to see, but the enormity of this thing blasting down from 300 miles up at 18,000 miles an hour (almost) is the real test, so they need the landing to work really well for once they start trying that nifty trick.

Just a reminder of 6 months ago...



"Grain Silo guys were gangsta until it belly flops, shuts them up"

hph6203 said:

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Where's the explosion?

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bthotugigem05 said:

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What are they going to do with it if they land it?

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Launch it again and land in front of the National Air and Space museum

Decay said:

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bthotugigem05 said:

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What are they going to do with it if they land it?

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Launch it again and land in front of the National Air and Space museum

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I would pay good money to watch that.

We're gonna need a bigger fuel tank.

LOL, AA also agrees that Blue Origin basically is showing vapor ware/mockups. This whole facility does have a whiff of a giant tax write-off/fake.

The only thing this thread is missing is a poopslap bet.

Any takers for this weeks launch?

Place your bets

Selfishly hope for Thursday

Had to run up to Iggle Pass and Coahuila to survey freeze damage.

Back after 4pm Wednesday

bthotugigem05 said:

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Place your bets

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Sell squares like superbowl?

D4

B3