During the shutdown there have still been many businesses open as people go to the grocery stores, conenience stores, Home Depot, Lowe's, etc. and there hasn't been continued virus breakouts as a result and I hope this will continue when we open more businesses.
Please explain
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118 Replies |
Last: 4 yr ago by FriscoKid
Old Army Metal said:
What I don't get is the logic based on the facts.
"We better do some drastic things so this doesn't kill millions of people!" --> we do drastic things --> it doesn't kill millions of people --> "Damn, what an overreaction!"
What am I missing here? Besides a lot of anecdotal evidence about people who think they had it January?
DallasAg 94 said:liberalag12 said:
the thinking of many on here making a conclusion that the virus is not as bad as we thought using extreme mitigation data? The numbers are low due to these measures. How can an argument be made by using the data against your argument?
Give me a single proof point where the Smart People have been correct? That support these draconian measures.
We bent the curve. It was linear, not exponential.
We were fighting an exponential curve... that never materialized.
We were told everyone would get it regardless. And now the think we can eradicate it from the planet?
Are you kidding? Every time it was pointed out for 4-5 weeks that growth had continued to be exponential, the retort was always, "Why are you crossing deaths? Did you finally get the crisis you wanted lib?" with no true rebuttal or acknowledgement. There was always some new excuse on why it didn't matter or was just part of some worldwide anti-Trump conspiracy. That exponential curve certainly materialized whether you choose to acknowledge it or not. It has started to flatten, but that we the point to begin with.
Funny how you didn't mention liberal politicians around the country pushing their resist movement, telling people to continue to gather and not be racist.liberalag12 said:
Well, for starters Sweden has the highest numbers coming out now with the Norwegian countries.
But the biggest reason they were able to do that was they tested early. They could see the virus and mitigate specific areas and people. If we did early testing we too probably didnt have to push the nuke option of shutting everything down. We were flying blind and alot of blame to go around on that one like CDC. WHO, and Trump but it is what it is and this is where we are at.
That said, how about looking at all data points? We should look at all countries and make a conclusion instead of selecting information like only on what we want to see. Ex. Sweden
I'm thinking a Sweden-like approach would have been better than throwing millions out of work.Sid Farkas said:
So we're on about week 2 of thinking the shutdown was a completely bad idea and is being used to steal the next election, totally re-engineer political governance and commandeer all of our rights...
If this is true, why hasn't Trump-Pence-WH task force clearly, vociferously and directly implored us and all 50 governors to just throw open the doors and go back to our normal lives today?
Why would anyone believe Democrats are up to no good?
When Trump issued the travel ban, what was the reaction of the Democrat Party leadership?
What was Pelosi's reaction?
What was Biden's reaction?
In early March, did the Mayor of New York City take appropriate measures? Or was he reacting primarily out of the "Orange Man Bad" instincts many leftists go with whenever they are triggered by Trump?
Trump's responsibility for this mess is quite clear. There are millions out of work and many who will lose their businesses because of the reaction to this virus. His fate will rest in his ability to get this nation as close to where it was pre-Virus as possible. The judgement will come in November.
The fact he wants to get this nation going again is quite clear as well.
When I see a Democrat candidate pretending China wasn't a problem in this matter, when I see a Democrat legislator laughing about the calamity in the oil industry, then many of us on the other side of the aisle are right to question the willingness of the left to have this nation return to prosperity.
Great post!
For every New York City you want to show on your side of the argument, I'll give you Tokyo on my side of the argument.liberalag12 said:
the thinking of many on here making a conclusion that the virus is not as bad as we thought while using extreme mitigation data? The numbers are low due to these measures. How can an argument be made by using the data against your argument?
Want to keep arguing? I've still got Singapore, Hong Kong and Seoul riding the pine on my team, waiting to get into the game against your Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, etc.
Domo Arigato liberal_san
Then you better tell the lab test people who confirmed that the late-40s mother didn't get it from her positive tested twenty-something. She showed flu like symptoms, tested negative for Flu, Pneumonia... and negative for COVID-19.OnlyForNow said:
I really doubt the people sharing a house with the infected person didn't get it. I would bet dollars to donuts that they got it, and it didn't affect them.
She is verified to not have it. Unless the tests are failing.
It's amazing watching the circular logic on both sides of this. How can anyone make an argument when the reasoning equally supports both sides?
The truth is somewhere in between.
The truth is somewhere in between.
So why not have the Pence task force declare victory and put main focus on the economy restart team?Stlkofta said:I'm thinking a Sweden-like approach would have been better than throwing millions out of work.Sid Farkas said:
So we're on about week 2 of thinking the shutdown was a completely bad idea and is being used to steal the next election, totally re-engineer political governance and commandeer all of our rights...
If this is true, why hasn't Trump-Pence-WH task force clearly, vociferously and directly implored us and all 50 governors to just throw open the doors and go back to our normal lives today?
Why would anyone believe Democrats are up to no good?
When Trump issued the travel ban, what was the reaction of the Democrat Party leadership?
What was Pelosi's reaction?
What was Biden's reaction?
In early March, did the Mayor of New York City take appropriate measures? Or was he reacting primarily out of the "Orange Man Bad" instincts many leftists go with whenever they are triggered by Trump?
Trump's responsibility for this mess is quite clear. There are millions out of work and many who will lose their businesses because of the reaction to this virus. His fate will rest in his ability to get this nation as close to where it was pre-Virus as possible. The judgement will come in November.
The fact he wants to get this nation going again is quite clear as well.
When I see a Democrat candidate pretending China wasn't a problem in this matter, when I see a Democrat legislator laughing about the calamity in the oil industry, then many of us on the other side of the aisle are right to question the willingness of the left to have this nation return to prosperity.
The president has the authority to simply say 'the hoax is over..everybody open your doors and go back to work'. If the shutdown is all the bad things we say it is...wouldn't it be unethical and malfeasant to take this ramp-up approach instead of risking lives, livelyhoods and freedoms?
Just ask yourself 'why?'
MassAggie97 said:I can't fathom this viewpoint. At one point coronavirus became the leading daily cause of death in America (not sure if it is still there, but it probably is). That happened in mid-April after multiple weeks of social distancing and stay-at-home orders.Quote:
Can you prove the numbers would be high otherwise?
If you took introductory biology and know how a virus works, then the question above answers itself.
Guess what, accidents were also one of the top leading causes of death. If suddenly nobody is going anywhere, those deaths decrease too. There is no way to prove how many people would have died had we used less drastic measures, so there is not a tangible way to calculate how many lives this might have saved. You pedantically say to take an intro to biology course and yet the global experts also got it wrong. What can be measured however is lives affected by unemployment.
It is like this.Old Army Metal said:
What I don't get is the logic based on the facts.
"We better do some drastic things so this doesn't kill millions of people!" --> we do drastic things --> it doesn't kill millions of people --> "Damn, what an overreaction!"
What am I missing here? Besides a lot of anecdotal evidence about people who think they had it January?
We were told there was a 4-14 day incubation which people may not show symptoms for up to 4 days, and as long as 14 days.
We were told (and it was mocked on here) that we'd see Exponential growth in cases. We didn't begin to self-isolate or shut anything down until March 20.
Kids were Spring Breaking, we had Mardi Gras, St Patricks... until late into March, we had as much social interaction and mobility among the masses as you can imagine.
Even after the self-isolation... we had up to 14 days of cases that we could validate what we were told. It SHOULD have been Exponential growth through March. What you see is barely linear. Once the self-isolation went into effect, you did see a bending of the linear curve. But, we weren't fighting to be saved from a linear curve.
All the models that incited panic were based on Exp curve. So, the infection spread, had we done nothing would have been linear... not Exp.
Next, we were told the death rate was 3%. We are finding that is crap.
Less people probably got it so far because all large gatherings were eliminated, but was it worth it? The cost has been massive to people's lives and to the debt. I think it's highly contagious and it's everywhere. I said you can't just shut down a society from the beginning and I was right. You predicted that all of our hospitals were a week away from being overrun. That never happened (even in NYC where the subways never stopped running). We never really "shut down". Government just said that some stores were more important than others.
Thousands of small businesses have been put out of business, tens of millions have lost their jobs, and we spent 7T to stop something that couldn't be stopped. The theoretical curve was just a theory and it was waaaaay off. I also told you a month ago that China was going back to work when we were shutting down. It wasn't the killer that the doomers feared it was.
The antibody testing is showing that the "denominator " of those infected is HUGE. The cure was worse than the disease.
Thousands of small businesses have been put out of business, tens of millions have lost their jobs, and we spent 7T to stop something that couldn't be stopped. The theoretical curve was just a theory and it was waaaaay off. I also told you a month ago that China was going back to work when we were shutting down. It wasn't the killer that the doomers feared it was.
The antibody testing is showing that the "denominator " of those infected is HUGE. The cure was worse than the disease.
If Trump wasn't focused on liberating the economy, then he would not have put together the restart team in the first place.Sid Farkas said:So why not have the Pence task force declare victory and put main focus on the economy restart team?Stlkofta said:I'm thinking a Sweden-like approach would have been better than throwing millions out of work.Sid Farkas said:
So we're on about week 2 of thinking the shutdown was a completely bad idea and is being used to steal the next election, totally re-engineer political governance and commandeer all of our rights...
If this is true, why hasn't Trump-Pence-WH task force clearly, vociferously and directly implored us and all 50 governors to just throw open the doors and go back to our normal lives today?
Why would anyone believe Democrats are up to no good?
When Trump issued the travel ban, what was the reaction of the Democrat Party leadership?
What was Pelosi's reaction?
What was Biden's reaction?
In early March, did the Mayor of New York City take appropriate measures? Or was he reacting primarily out of the "Orange Man Bad" instincts many leftists go with whenever they are triggered by Trump?
Trump's responsibility for this mess is quite clear. There are millions out of work and many who will lose their businesses because of the reaction to this virus. His fate will rest in his ability to get this nation as close to where it was pre-Virus as possible. The judgement will come in November.
The fact he wants to get this nation going again is quite clear as well.
When I see a Democrat candidate pretending China wasn't a problem in this matter, when I see a Democrat legislator laughing about the calamity in the oil industry, then many of us on the other side of the aisle are right to question the willingness of the left to have this nation return to prosperity.
The president has the authority to simply say 'the hoax is over..everybody open your doors and go back to work'. If the shutdown is all the bad things we say it is...wouldn't it be unethical and malfeasant to take this ramp-up approach instead of risking lives, livelyhoods and freedoms?
Just ask yourself 'why?'
He's already been out stating he wants the economy open again. The Administration has issued guidelines for reopening. It is quite clear where the President stands on this issue at present.
Republican governors throughout the nation have issued various guidelines with an eye towards reopening and getting their state-level economies rolling again. We see it in Ohio, Tennessee, and Georgia. To a certain extent, we're getting that from Texas and Florida as well.
What we have not seen from the vast majority of Democrat Party governors are similar plans to open up.
What they are discussing is continued closure and continued recession.
Where, pray tell, is the Democrats' "economy restart" team?
Are they the same folks who told us "managed decline" was the economic reality of the United States in the 21st Century?
Remember when we were going to run out of hospital beds?
Remember?
That was the first pivot after "everyone's going to die!" never materialized. So now it was about all of America running out of hospital beds. Then it shifted to ventilators.
For one, the WHO is a corrupt organization. I don't believe a thing they say no matter what it is. Second, the CDC is yet another example of bloated liberalism failing and being ineffective at its one job. Then they come crawling out of their hole, suddenly experts on everything again, along with every other doctor who ever treated a sniffle. The message starts to be parroted and "flatten the curve" becomes the message. Some of us pointed out as the narrative was set, that it was self fulfilled prophecy for the corona lovers. They they would come spiking the football once their virus was proven to be overblown.
The data was incomplete. We never had a denominator. We never had the false positive rate. But we kept being told that we knew the trend line anyway, that we knew because of simple math. We HAD to shut down the economy. Millions were going to die.
Once that turned out to be complete horse ****, and hospital beds weren't coming close to being filled.. anywhere.. the experts started deciding that any death that was respiratory in nature was now Corona. Anyone who died from a disease they already had, who might have had corona, died from corona.. despite no evidence of Corona affecting them. Then it morphed even farther to "well, if they would have gotten Corona their death would have been because of it", and we started counting those. So we now have extremely bloated death numbers while the denominator is still MUCH larger than the genius experts ever imagined. The actual mortality rate, had we known the denominator, was always closer to .00 than to .01.
You don't get credit for your self fulfilling prophecy coming true. You do get credit for using faulty science and attempting to change the world based on incomplete data. You've been wanting to try it for years with global warming, but you couldn't scare anyone enough.
Remember?
That was the first pivot after "everyone's going to die!" never materialized. So now it was about all of America running out of hospital beds. Then it shifted to ventilators.
For one, the WHO is a corrupt organization. I don't believe a thing they say no matter what it is. Second, the CDC is yet another example of bloated liberalism failing and being ineffective at its one job. Then they come crawling out of their hole, suddenly experts on everything again, along with every other doctor who ever treated a sniffle. The message starts to be parroted and "flatten the curve" becomes the message. Some of us pointed out as the narrative was set, that it was self fulfilled prophecy for the corona lovers. They they would come spiking the football once their virus was proven to be overblown.
The data was incomplete. We never had a denominator. We never had the false positive rate. But we kept being told that we knew the trend line anyway, that we knew because of simple math. We HAD to shut down the economy. Millions were going to die.
Once that turned out to be complete horse ****, and hospital beds weren't coming close to being filled.. anywhere.. the experts started deciding that any death that was respiratory in nature was now Corona. Anyone who died from a disease they already had, who might have had corona, died from corona.. despite no evidence of Corona affecting them. Then it morphed even farther to "well, if they would have gotten Corona their death would have been because of it", and we started counting those. So we now have extremely bloated death numbers while the denominator is still MUCH larger than the genius experts ever imagined. The actual mortality rate, had we known the denominator, was always closer to .00 than to .01.
You don't get credit for your self fulfilling prophecy coming true. You do get credit for using faulty science and attempting to change the world based on incomplete data. You've been wanting to try it for years with global warming, but you couldn't scare anyone enough.
Quote:
Guess what, accidents were also one of the top leading causes of death. If suddenly nobody is going anywhere, those deaths decrease too.
Sounds like you agree with my point then.
No, but it doesn't take a genius to figure out that if we have cut individual human/human contact in the community by say, 75%, we have also reduced the potential spread of the virus by at least that same amount.Quote:
There is no way to prove how many people would have died had we used less drastic measures, so there is not a tangible way to calculate how many lives this might have saved.
After-the-fact armchair quarterbacking. This is a novel virus, and as such, a lot of the early math was based on bad assumptions. Scientific understanding of the disease is improving, as such so is the predictive capacity of the experts.Quote:
You pedantically say to take an intro to biology course and yet the global experts also got it wrong. What can be measured however is lives affected by unemployment.
Srry I think youre missing my point. If this whole thing is conspiracy to steal rights and elections, then am I to assume trump and the WH team are complicit? If trump isn't part of the conspiracy then I expect he will announce the complete opening of the country today.Stlkofta said:If Trump wasn't focused on liberating the economy, then he would not have put together the restart team in the first place.Sid Farkas said:So why not have the Pence task force declare victory and put main focus on the economy restart team?Stlkofta said:I'm thinking a Sweden-like approach would have been better than throwing millions out of work.Sid Farkas said:
So we're on about week 2 of thinking the shutdown was a completely bad idea and is being used to steal the next election, totally re-engineer political governance and commandeer all of our rights...
If this is true, why hasn't Trump-Pence-WH task force clearly, vociferously and directly implored us and all 50 governors to just throw open the doors and go back to our normal lives today?
Why would anyone believe Democrats are up to no good?
When Trump issued the travel ban, what was the reaction of the Democrat Party leadership?
What was Pelosi's reaction?
What was Biden's reaction?
In early March, did the Mayor of New York City take appropriate measures? Or was he reacting primarily out of the "Orange Man Bad" instincts many leftists go with whenever they are triggered by Trump?
Trump's responsibility for this mess is quite clear. There are millions out of work and many who will lose their businesses because of the reaction to this virus. His fate will rest in his ability to get this nation as close to where it was pre-Virus as possible. The judgement will come in November.
The fact he wants to get this nation going again is quite clear as well.
When I see a Democrat candidate pretending China wasn't a problem in this matter, when I see a Democrat legislator laughing about the calamity in the oil industry, then many of us on the other side of the aisle are right to question the willingness of the left to have this nation return to prosperity.
The president has the authority to simply say 'the hoax is over..everybody open your doors and go back to work'. If the shutdown is all the bad things we say it is...wouldn't it be unethical and malfeasant to take this ramp-up approach instead of risking lives, livelyhoods and freedoms?
Just ask yourself 'why?'
He's already been out stating he wants the economy open again. The Administration has issued guidelines for reopening. It is quite clear where the President stands on this issue at present.
Republican governors throughout the nation have issued various guidelines with an eye towards reopening and getting their state-level economies rolling again. We see it in Ohio, Tennessee, and Georgia. To a certain extent, we're getting that from Texas and Florida as well.
What we have not seen from the vast majority of Democrat Party governors are similar plans to open up.
What they are discussing is continued closure and continued recession.
Where, pray tell, is the Democrats' "economy restart" team?
Are they the same folks who told us "managed decline" was the economic reality of the United States in the 21st Century?
This is simply not accurate - there is NO data that supports this. If you look at places where distancing and stay-at-home were too late, the "hot spots", they ALL show exponential growth curves.Quote:
All the models that incited panic were based on Exp curve. So, the infection spread, had we done nothing would have been linear... not Exp.
You get my point full well. This is why you refuse to answer the questions.Sid Farkas said:Srry I think youre missing my point. If this whole thing is conspiracy to steal rights and elections, then am I to assume trump and the WH team are complicit? If trump isn't part of the conspiracy then I expect he will announce the complete opening of the country today.Stlkofta said:If Trump wasn't focused on liberating the economy, then he would not have put together the restart team in the first place.Sid Farkas said:So why not have the Pence task force declare victory and put main focus on the economy restart team?Stlkofta said:I'm thinking a Sweden-like approach would have been better than throwing millions out of work.Sid Farkas said:
So we're on about week 2 of thinking the shutdown was a completely bad idea and is being used to steal the next election, totally re-engineer political governance and commandeer all of our rights...
If this is true, why hasn't Trump-Pence-WH task force clearly, vociferously and directly implored us and all 50 governors to just throw open the doors and go back to our normal lives today?
Why would anyone believe Democrats are up to no good?
When Trump issued the travel ban, what was the reaction of the Democrat Party leadership?
What was Pelosi's reaction?
What was Biden's reaction?
In early March, did the Mayor of New York City take appropriate measures? Or was he reacting primarily out of the "Orange Man Bad" instincts many leftists go with whenever they are triggered by Trump?
Trump's responsibility for this mess is quite clear. There are millions out of work and many who will lose their businesses because of the reaction to this virus. His fate will rest in his ability to get this nation as close to where it was pre-Virus as possible. The judgement will come in November.
The fact he wants to get this nation going again is quite clear as well.
When I see a Democrat candidate pretending China wasn't a problem in this matter, when I see a Democrat legislator laughing about the calamity in the oil industry, then many of us on the other side of the aisle are right to question the willingness of the left to have this nation return to prosperity.
The president has the authority to simply say 'the hoax is over..everybody open your doors and go back to work'. If the shutdown is all the bad things we say it is...wouldn't it be unethical and malfeasant to take this ramp-up approach instead of risking lives, livelyhoods and freedoms?
Just ask yourself 'why?'
He's already been out stating he wants the economy open again. The Administration has issued guidelines for reopening. It is quite clear where the President stands on this issue at present.
Republican governors throughout the nation have issued various guidelines with an eye towards reopening and getting their state-level economies rolling again. We see it in Ohio, Tennessee, and Georgia. To a certain extent, we're getting that from Texas and Florida as well.
What we have not seen from the vast majority of Democrat Party governors are similar plans to open up.
What they are discussing is continued closure and continued recession.
Where, pray tell, is the Democrats' "economy restart" team?
Are they the same folks who told us "managed decline" was the economic reality of the United States in the 21st Century?
Again, this is not correct. Total cases and deaths did grow exponentially through the end of March. The number of daily new cases and deaths kept increasing until the first week of April at which point they started to level off.DallasAg 94 said:It is like this.Old Army Metal said:
What I don't get is the logic based on the facts.
"We better do some drastic things so this doesn't kill millions of people!" --> we do drastic things --> it doesn't kill millions of people --> "Damn, what an overreaction!"
What am I missing here? Besides a lot of anecdotal evidence about people who think they had it January?
We were told there was a 4-14 day incubation which people may not show symptoms for up to 4 days, and as long as 14 days.
We were told (and it was mocked on here) that we'd see Exponential growth in cases. We didn't begin to self-isolate or shut anything down until March 20.
Kids were Spring Breaking, we had Mardi Gras, St Patricks... until late into March, we had as much social interaction and mobility among the masses as you can imagine.
Even after the self-isolation... we had up to 14 days of cases that we could validate what we were told. It SHOULD have been Exponential growth through March. What you see is barely linear. Once the self-isolation went into effect, you did see a bending of the linear curve. But, we weren't fighting to be saved from a linear curve.
All the models that incited panic were based on Exp curve. So, the infection spread, had we done nothing would have been linear... not Exp.
Next, we were told the death rate was 3%. We are finding that is crap.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
I think the better questions would be, what measures of mitigation do you truly believe we've taken and do you think this virus, with its now known traits, is worth ruining this country, decimating millions of people's lives over and most assuredly causing greater casualties from the longterm economic and health hardships?liberalag12 said:
the thinking of many on here making a conclusion that the virus is not as bad as we thought while using extreme mitigation data? The numbers are low due to these measures. How can an argument be made by using the data against your argument?
Thomas Jefferson: "When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government." "I prefer dangerous freedom over peaceful slavery."
I don't want to be insulting, but how much math have you had?texaglurkerguy said:
New cases may be approximately linear now that we've been social distancing for ~5 weeks, but it was very much growing exponentially from mid March to end of March. The trajectory of deaths too was growing exponentially up until about a week ago.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Look at the following and tell me which looks more similar to the end of March.
Regarding Deaths... April 7th, we had 2,219 deaths. Using that as a horizontal line, we could say there is NO growth if the Daily Deaths don't reach that marker. Anything below would be negative growth. Anything above would be positive growth
2,219 4/7 < TWO weeks ago
2,156 4/8 <- Lower
2,101 4/9 <- Lower
2,226 4/10
2,013 4/11<- Lower
1,715 4/12<- Lower
1,714 4/13<- Lower
The start of ONE week ago
2,553 4/14
2,618 4/15
2,176 4/16<- Lower
2,528 4/17
1,867 4/18<- Lower
1,561 4/19<- Lower
1,939 4/20<- Lower
This past week was deemed THE TRAGIC week. We were told this was going to be devastating. 4 of the 7 days had fewer deaths than we saw 2 weeks ago.
The problem is... this past week when NY realized they weren't going to see the tragedy, they decided to start revising their number to include people who were never tested and never symptomatic, because more people were dying at home. Well, if you are spending more time at home... like twice as much time... your deaths at home will be more.
I don't want to be insulting but we are no longer working on models and projections. We are working on collected statistics which has to be our source of truth and validation. Those Death numbers... are anything but growth. If they are linear, they are a negative linear rate.
Statistics isn't for everyone and you can't rely on reporters to get statistical information. They are dumb... and mathematically, I've seen the level of math they are required for their degree, and I'm not impressed.
The "exponential growth" in cases almost exactly matched the "exponential growth" in testing. The subsequent testing is proving that we have a LOT more cases out there than we first thought and the vast majority have been asymptomatic or had symptoms that were so mild that people never went for testing. Nearly all of the "curves" that people have been seeing in most of the US positive case data have been purely a function of increasing the number of tests administered. The death totals are now hopelessly contaminated by calling virtually any death that could have had any relation to Covid as a death caused by Covid. People who are on hospice in nursing homes waiting to die of heart failure or kidney failure are being classified as Covid deaths because they coughed a few times before passing away and were posthumously tested positive. Did covid possibly help them along towards the afterlife? Sure. Would they have survived and lived a healthy life for months or years afterward except for Covid? No.texaglurkerguy said:
New cases may be approximately linear now that we've been social distancing for ~5 weeks, but it was very much growing exponentially from mid March to end of March. The trajectory of deaths too was growing exponentially up until about a week ago.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
With the case positive data corrupted by increasing the number of tests over time and the death rate data corrupted by the changes to the way we classify causes of death, there are very few firm conclusions that we can draw about anything with the dataset we have right now.
All of the arguments made against the shelter-in-place seem naive to me. Maybe I'm totally mis-reading you here, but are you saying the curret guidelines for mitigation have not really been effective?Quote:
I think the better questions would be, what measures of mitigation do you truly believe we've taken
I am no longer going to church, sitting at restaurants, interacting in-person with my coworkers, visting my family out of town, hanging out with friends in town, going to stores, going to movies, bowling on Tuesdays, etc. etc. I am in the same room with approximately 150 fewer people on a weekly basis than I was pre-mitigation, and that doesn't count things like going to movies, eating at restaurants and exposure in stores.
I am within 6' of maybe 25 people per week now at the grocery store, and half of them are wearing masks. That's an 85% reduction in my risk of exposure and exposing someone else. If I am average, that is an unbelievable amount of mitigation.
A few reasons.Sid Farkas said:
So we're on about week 2 of thinking the shutdown was a completely bad idea and is being used to steal the next election, totally re-engineer political governance and commandeer all of our rights...
If this is true, why hasn't Trump-Pence-WH task force clearly, vociferously and directly implored us and all 50 governors to just throw open the doors and go back to our normal lives today?
First, the media continues to blame him for responding too slowly. They are claiming all of this could have been avoided, had he not been irresponsible. If he just throws everything open, the MSM will continue to declare him as reckless and continue to ask, "How many deaths are you willing to accept."
Second, Some Govs are working against him, already. There are 3 separate coalitions of (D) who are working to keep their states closed.
Third, the MSM, in conjunction with the (D) Govs have framed this return to be about Science and not politics. Everything Trump does is deemed political and against the well-being of the people.
People are frightened and the MSM is hellbent on destroying the confidence the American people have in Trump. So, Trump has to play the game of caring more about the people who won't die, than getting people back to work.
Surely you remember the "Bush Body Count." Day after day after day, we got numbers of dead soldiers from Iraq and Afghanistan. "Their blood is on your hands Bush." Then, one day, a new president took power. He changed nothing, and we suddenly quit seeing the Body Count.
He needs the House to help fund getting back to work, after all of the destruction. There are many reasons Pelosi and (D) in the House are delaying funding the recovery. Once she signs that check, I think he WILL open things up.
Until then, he has to navigate the hostile MSM and hostile (D)s.
If you map Russia, Russia, Russia, Mueller, Kav, Impeachment. It is the same play book by the MSM/(D)s and the way Trump has handled it is exactly the same for each. At some point the cards have to get laid on the table and the Bluff is called. In every case, Trump has pulled the pot of chips into his side of the table.
This appears to be happening again. They sign the check, and the economy explodes into production.
This was never going to kill 2.2 million Americans. Bull**** from the start.
Sid Farkas said:
So we're on about week 2 of thinking the shutdown was a completely bad idea and is being used to steal the next election, totally re-engineer political governance and commandeer all of our rights...
If this is true, why hasn't Trump-Pence-WH task force clearly, vociferously and directly implored us and all 50 governors to just throw open the doors and go back to our normal lives today?
Straw man alert.
Yes, growth in April has stalled and total cases/deaths are increasing approximately linearly now. That's not what I'm disputing. You said growth through March was linear and not exponential. This is demonstrably untrue.DallasAg 94 said:I don't want to be insulting, but how much math have you had?texaglurkerguy said:
New cases may be approximately linear now that we've been social distancing for ~5 weeks, but it was very much growing exponentially from mid March to end of March. The trajectory of deaths too was growing exponentially up until about a week ago.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Look at the following and tell me which looks more similar to the end of March.
Regarding Deaths... April 7th, we had 2,219 deaths. Using that as a horizontal line, we could say there is NO growth if the Daily Deaths don't reach that marker. Anything below would be negative growth. Anything above would be positive growth
2,219 4/7 < TWO weeks ago
2,156 4/8 <- Lower
2,101 4/9 <- Lower
2,226 4/10
2,013 4/11<- Lower
1,715 4/12<- Lower
1,714 4/13<- Lower
The start of ONE week ago
2,553 4/14
2,618 4/15
2,176 4/16<- Lower
2,528 4/17
1,867 4/18<- Lower
1,561 4/19<- Lower
1,939 4/20<- Lower
This past week was deemed THE TRAGIC week. We were told this was going to be devastating. 4 of the 7 days had fewer deaths than we saw 2 weeks ago.
The problem is... this past week when NY realized they weren't going to see the tragedy, they decided to start revising their number to include people who were never tested and never symptomatic, because more people were dying at home. Well, if you are spending more time at home... like twice as much time... your deaths at home will be more.
I don't want to be insulting but we are no longer working on models and projections. We are working on collected statistics which has to be our source of truth and validation. Those Death numbers... are anything but growth. If they are linear, they are a negative linear rate.
Statistics isn't for everyone and you can't rely on reporters to get statistical information. They are dumb... and mathematically, I've seen the level of math they are required for their degree, and I'm not impressed.
Here's a calculus lesson for you. If the total number of cases and deaths in March was increasing linearly, that would mean that the rate of growth (aka daily new cases and deaths) would be more or less constant. Simple derivative. However in March, the number of daily new cases and deaths increased day over day rather consistently. If the rate of growth increases linearly (like the number of daily new cases and deaths did in the month of March), that means the total number is increasing parabolically/exponentially. Simple integral.
Not to be insulting, but how much math have you had?
We don't have enough data to know what cases were actually doing in March. During March, our number of tests administered was growing exponentially, so it is no surprise that the cases were growing exponentially, when only people who were grossly symptomatic were being tested. If we had been testing the same number of people every day and the number of cases was growing, then you could conclude the cases were growing exponentially. But when the number of tests administered was increasing every day, the curve created by graphing the number of positives is meaningless in the broader scope of assessing what is or isn't working.texaglurkerguy said:Yes, growth in April has stalled and total cases/deaths are increasing linearly now. That's not what I'm disputing. You said growth through March was linear and not exponential. This is demonstrably untrue.DallasAg 94 said:I don't want to be insulting, but how much math have you had?texaglurkerguy said:
New cases may be approximately linear now that we've been social distancing for ~5 weeks, but it was very much growing exponentially from mid March to end of March. The trajectory of deaths too was growing exponentially up until about a week ago.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Look at the following and tell me which looks more similar to the end of March.
Regarding Deaths... April 7th, we had 2,219 deaths. Using that as a horizontal line, we could say there is NO growth if the Daily Deaths don't reach that marker. Anything below would be negative growth. Anything above would be positive growth
2,219 4/7 < TWO weeks ago
2,156 4/8 <- Lower
2,101 4/9 <- Lower
2,226 4/10
2,013 4/11<- Lower
1,715 4/12<- Lower
1,714 4/13<- Lower
The start of ONE week ago
2,553 4/14
2,618 4/15
2,176 4/16<- Lower
2,528 4/17
1,867 4/18<- Lower
1,561 4/19<- Lower
1,939 4/20<- Lower
This past week was deemed THE TRAGIC week. We were told this was going to be devastating. 4 of the 7 days had fewer deaths than we saw 2 weeks ago.
The problem is... this past week when NY realized they weren't going to see the tragedy, they decided to start revising their number to include people who were never tested and never symptomatic, because more people were dying at home. Well, if you are spending more time at home... like twice as much time... your deaths at home will be more.
I don't want to be insulting but we are no longer working on models and projections. We are working on collected statistics which has to be our source of truth and validation. Those Death numbers... are anything but growth. If they are linear, they are a negative linear rate.
Statistics isn't for everyone and you can't rely on reporters to get statistical information. They are dumb... and mathematically, I've seen the level of math they are required for their degree, and I'm not impressed.
Here's a calculus lesson for you. If the total number of cases and deaths in March was increasing linearly, that would mean that the rate of growth (aka daily new cases and deaths) would be more or less constant. Simple derivative. However in March, the number of daily new cases and deaths increased. If the rate of growth increases linearly (like the number of daily new cases and deaths did), that means the total number is increasing parabolically. Simple integral.
Not to be insulting, but how much math have you had?
I would love for that to happen, but it would create hysteria.Sid Farkas said:
So why not have the Pence task force declare victory and put main focus on the economy restart team?
The president has the authority to simply say 'the hoax is over..everybody open your doors and go back to work'. If the shutdown is all the bad things we say it is...wouldn't it be unethical and malfeasant to take this ramp-up approach instead of risking lives, livelyhoods and freedoms?
Just ask yourself 'why?'
Restarting an economy would seem simple enough, however, there is a whole supply chain issue. Remember the toilet paper problem. We have had to have entire food supply industries re-tool their go-to-market. Eggs. Restaurants buy cases by the box. Like 24 dozen eggs (288) in a box. Stores/Consumers buy them by the individual dozen. Packaging is a huge deal.
If Pence says, "We're open for business." What happens to just about everything?
You'll have panic purchases and inflation will be out of control. Gas prices, despite yesterday, would go through the roof and you'll have people sitting in lines like it was Jimmy Carter's oil crisis.
Restaurants that can't get the food they need, would go to grocers and buy up everything to stock their restaurants. Then panic sets in and hoarding runs rampant.
Schools that would re-open would create a tremendous logistical issue. Schools have effectively shutdown, their cafeterias would be unable to feed the kids.
I've actually been a part of creating an economy. It is quite a fascinating things to understand.
Democrats would love nothing more than to show video after video of empty stores and gas lines... Hyper inflation and super impose "Trump economy: There is no food, no gas, no jobs."
I am not sure what you mean by .03 if you mean 0.03% your math skills really suck since that is less than 100,000 deaths at 100% infection. If you meant 0.3% that is bit less than 1,000,000 deaths for 100% infected. To have a number in the millions you need around a 1% death rate.liberalag12 said:
Good point. Here is the problem though. Even if the death rate is much lower say .03 or lower without severe mitigation it would spread throughout the population. There are roughly 325 million people in the US. Even if we said only half the population is affected the number would be in the millions. Heck, I agree with what Trump said yesterday which is the number would be between 1 to 2 million.
This is Science. Not politics or at least it should be.
mazag08 said:
Remember when we were going to run out of hospital beds?
Remember?
That was the first pivot after "everyone's going to die!" never materialized. So now it was about all of America running out of hospital beds. Then it shifted to ventilators.
For one, the WHO is a corrupt organization. I don't believe a thing they say no matter what it is. Second, the CDC is yet another example of bloated liberalism failing and being ineffective at its one job. Then they come crawling out of their hole, suddenly experts on everything again, along with every other doctor who ever treated a sniffle. The message starts to be parroted and "flatten the curve" becomes the message. Some of us pointed out as the narrative was set, that it was self fulfilled prophecy for the corona lovers. They they would come spiking the football once their virus was proven to be overblown.
The data was incomplete. We never had a denominator. We never had the false positive rate. But we kept being told that we knew the trend line anyway, that we knew because of simple math. We HAD to shut down the economy. Millions were going to die.
Once that turned out to be complete horse ****, and hospital beds weren't coming close to being filled.. anywhere.. the experts started deciding that any death that was respiratory in nature was now Corona. Anyone who died from a disease they already had, who might have had corona, died from corona.. despite no evidence of Corona affecting them. Then it morphed even farther to "well, if they would have gotten Corona their death would have been because of it", and we started counting those. So we now have extremely bloated death numbers while the denominator is still MUCH larger than the genius experts ever imagined. The actual mortality rate, had we known the denominator, was always closer to .00 than to .01.
You don't get credit for your self fulfilling prophecy coming true. You do get credit for using faulty science and attempting to change the world based on incomplete data. You've been wanting to try it for years with global warming, but you couldn't scare anyone enough.
Monica!
I'm tired of this Nothing Burger "pandemic". Let's get cracking opening **** up.
I'm so tired of always being right. Wait... no I'm not.
I'm so tired of always being right. Wait... no I'm not.
liberalag12 said:
Good point. Here is the problem though. Even if the death rate is much lower say .03 or lower without severe mitigation it would spread throughout the population. There are roughly 325 million people in the US. Even if we said only half the population is affected the number would be in the millions. Heck, I agree with what Trump said yesterday which is the number would be between 1 to 2 million.
This is Science. Not politics or at least it should be.
You should check your math. If the death rate was .03% and assume every person in the entire US got it. How many deaths would that be?
I can agree with this. However the fact that deaths also increased exponentially in March supports the conclusion that cases were too. I know your response to this reasoning will be that the reported changes to the guidelines for coding COVID deaths corrupted this data, but I find it even more unlikely that these reported changes resulted in an artificial exponential curve that in reality was linear.txags92 said:
We don't have enough data to know what cases were actually doing in March. During March, our number of tests administered was growing exponentially, so it is no surprise that the cases were growing exponentially, when only people who were grossly symptomatic were being tested. If we had been testing the same number of people every day and the number of cases was growing, then you could conclude the cases were growing exponentially. But when the number of tests administered was increasing every day, the curve created by graphing the number of positives is meaningless in the broader scope of assessing what is or isn't working.
At any rate, the point of my post was that in the month of March, based on the data we have available cases and deaths increased exponentially. I can concede that the points you mention may cast doubt on that conclusion, but that certainly doesn't mean that the conclusion "infections and deaths increased linearly in March" (which DallasAg claimed) is more valid.
It's fine to question the conclusions drawn from incomplete data. It's not fine to suggest the incompleteness of the data supports another conclusion (which the data doesn't support) altogether.
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