Please explain

18,518 Views | 118 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by FriscoKid
Ex-liberalag12
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the thinking of many on here making a conclusion that the virus is not as bad as we thought while using extreme mitigation data? The numbers are low due to these measures. How can an argument be made by using the data against your argument?
Gig'em
DallasAg 94
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Multiple media reports that it was here before we realized, and thus didn't spread as quickly.

The 10+ people I have known who are convinced they had it in Dec and Jan. One worked with a family member who didn'tget it despite working alongside them.

The 2 people I know who have it, have not spread it to family in same house, indicating it isn'tas contagious as espoused.

The fact it is not as deadly as predicted.

A complete breakdown in credibility in those talking as professionals who are so wrong. Repeatedly.

It looks bad when Andrew Cuomo's brother and wife are partying in a diff city approaching people while knowingly having tested positive, while being under self-isolation.

It is like this... science is about credibility. If you lie to me about simple, easily verifiable evidence... I'm not trusting you with more complex science.

I have had 27hrs of college Chem, including 8hrs in Organic, and PChem. 12hrs of Bio, including Micro.

I'm no science dummy, and I ain't some fool, too dumb to verify your mistakes and blindly follow people.
BMX Bandit
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Quote:

I have had 27hrs of college Chem, including 8hrs in Organic, and PChem. 12hrs of Bio, including Micro.
And stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.
DallasAg 94
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liberalag12 said:

the thinking of many on here making a conclusion that the virus is not as bad as we thought using extreme mitigation data? The numbers are low due to these measures. How can an argument be made by using the data against your argument?


Give me a single proof point where the Smart People have been correct? That support these draconian measures.

We bent the curve. It was linear, not exponential.

We were fighting an exponential curve... that never materialized.

We were told everyone would get it regardless. And now the think we can eradicate it from the planet?
DallasAg 94
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BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

I have had 27hrs of college Chem, including 8hrs in Organic, and PChem. 12hrs of Bio, including Micro.
And stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.


Well, not in the past month, but maybe if I do, I'd qualify to be a virologist... Trump could use a couple.
Get Off My Lawn
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DallasAg 94 said:

The fact it is not as deadly as predicted.
A month ago there were some of us pointing out that it's either highly contagious and not as deadly, or not that contagious and a couple times more deadly than the flu.

Now it appears that it's somewhere in between.
Old Army Metal
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AG
What I don't get is the logic based on the facts.

"We better do some drastic things so this doesn't kill millions of people!" --> we do drastic things --> it doesn't kill millions of people --> "Damn, what an overreaction!"

What am I missing here? Besides a lot of anecdotal evidence about people who think they had it January?
Cassius
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OP, I suspect, you (and your fellow libs) want the economy to crater so you can get rid of Trump. You are willing to sacrifice jobs and the economy to do it because you believe it'll be much better with Dementia Joe and your fellow libs in charge. The jobs will return and we'll live in nirvana, like we did under Obama.

You and your fellow false prophets won't quit spreading the gospel of nonsense and fear. But we're not buying it and DA94 pretty much summed up why.

Your virus lost!

Stat Monitor Repairman
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DallasAg 94 said:

liberalag12 said:

the thinking of many on here making a conclusion that the virus is not as bad as we thought using extreme mitigation data? The numbers are low due to these measures. How can an argument be made by using the data against your argument?


Give me a single proof point where the Smart People have been correct?
Smart people failed. Common sense wasn't allowed to prevail.

The media happily fueled mass hysteria and you had a president who has been under unprecedented scrutiny take an ultra conservative approach nationwide.

The economy is totally ****ed and will be for 5-7 years.

Shutting down the entire economy will be looked at in hindsight as one of the stupidest and most costly blunders of all time.
coolerguy12
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It's pretty simple.

Fear mongering claim #1: This virus has a 3% kill rate, we have to take drastic measures.

Fear mongering claim #2: We are woefully underprepared with testing, millions could have it without us knowing.

These two claims cannot both be true yet we were willing to give up a ton of freedom based on these claims. Now we have a bunch of idiots saying that we barely made it out of this alive only due to the drastic measures that we took even though every piece of evidence points to the virus being way less deadly than we thought and way more people have been infected than we thought. The kill rate was high because only the extreme cases made it to the hospital.

Oh and the fact that libtards are making any excuse they can to add to CV19 death toll. Explain to me how NY can add 3700 in a day off the assumption that they had CV19 with no confirmation.

Use your head, try some critical thinking, it does wonders.
Ranch Dressing
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OP, define "extreme mitigation data". If your goal is to have a rational discussion you must provide evidence to support your claim.
“Therefore do not be anxious about tomorrow, for tomorrow will be anxious for itself. Sufficient for the day is its own trouble."

-Matthew 6:34
1872walker
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Early on, the powers that be wanted us to look at the number of cases of COVID-19 as the i indicator of why we need to take drastic measures.

Now. When looking at the rate of death of those with COVID-19, it appears to not be nearly as deadly as initially thought.

Add to that the growing number of asymptomatic carriers.

Take all of that into account when looking at what we have done to our economy and you start to see why man feel the measures were a significant overreaction.

There's no doubt that the measures implemented greatly reduced the spread. The question now becomes whether or not they were necessary as we find out more and more about the virus.
coolerguy12
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AG
liberalag12 said:

the thinking of many on here making a conclusion that the virus is not as bad as we thought using extreme mitigation data? The numbers are low due to these measures. How can an argument be made by using the data against your argument?


Heads I win tails you lose.

If it had been bad then the argument would be we didn't do enough. If it turned out to be a big nothing burger it would be because of the drastic measures. Ask yourself this question. What would have had to happen for me to believe that this was an overreaction? Play devils advocate with yourself. You might actually learn something instead of falling for all the preconceived notions you already have.
OnlyForNow
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I really doubt the people sharing a house with the infected person didn't get it. I would bet dollars to donuts that they got it, and it didn't affect them.
Ex-liberalag12
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I think I had it too. That said, so you are saying these mitigation efforts did not stop the virus dramatically? We have plenty of other evidence. Look at all the other countries that also did these measures and the virus also dramatically decreased. You think there is no correlation?
Gig'em
Ex-liberalag12
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Good point. Here is the problem though. Even if the death rate is much lower say .03 or lower without severe mitigation it would spread throughout the population. There are roughly 325 million people in the US. Even if we said only half the population is affected the number would be in the millions. Heck, I agree with what Trump said yesterday which is the number would be between 1 to 2 million.

This is Science. Not politics or at least it should be.
Gig'em
jefe95
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Millions with what is effectively a cold.

Let's go.

The death stories sell news, but the exponents of recovered that didn't even need hospitalization outweighs the deaths dramatically.

Quit being scared. Open the country.
Ex-liberalag12
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Yes. We want the economy to crater. I just don't get that. Why would I want me and my family to suffer? Another mind-blowing comment I just can't wrap my head around. Maybe there are some libs that due but there are crazy on the way left and crazy on the way right. I wouldn't judge a group by their worse examples.
Gig'em
Claverack
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liberalag12 said:

the thinking of many on here making a conclusion that the virus is not as bad as we thought using extreme mitigation data? The numbers are low due to these measures. How can an argument be made by using the data against your argument?
If the virus were as dangerously lethal as the early prediction stated it would be, then it would stand to reason that Sweden, one of the few nations refusing to adopt extreme mitigation measures, would have been dramatically impacted by its ravages.

That is not the case.

The numbers in Sweden are higher than those of their neighbors. But they do not reflect the tragic impact many scientists in this field predicted were government officials not to take extreme measures.

If I'm a coach facing a Top 10 opponent, someone who is seen by those in the know as having ability and depth across all positions, and I adopt extremely conservative measures in order to defeat that team, then would the conservative strategy alone explain everything were I to win?

Could it possibly be that the opposition was not quite as lethal an enemy as they were cracked up to be by the experts?

Ex-liberalag12
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Well, for starters Sweden has the highest numbers coming out now with the Norwegian countries.

But the biggest reason they were able to do that was they tested early. They could see the virus and mitigate specific areas and people. If we did early testing we too probably didnt have to push the nuke option of shutting everything down. We were flying blind and alot of blame to go around on that one like CDC. WHO, and Trump but it is what it is and this is where we are at.

That said, how about looking at all data points? We should look at all countries and make a conclusion instead of selecting information like only on what we want to see. Ex. Sweden
Gig'em
Cromagnum
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AG
Can you prove the numbers would be high otherwise?
MSCAg
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My response in another thread

Based on all published data, if you are under the age of 55 and have no significant lung issues, your chances of dying from it are almost 0%.

I'm not saying certain people shouldn't be cautious and I think the shelter in place orders were the right course, given what we saw at the time.

But at this point, we need to reopen stuff and tell people to be cautious.
Claverack
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liberalag12 said:

Well, for starters Sweden has the highest numbers coming out now with the Norwegian countries.

But the biggest reason they were able to do that was they tested early. They could see the virus and mitigate specific areas and people. If we did early testing we too probably didnt have to push the nuke option of shutting everything down. We were flying blind and alot of blame to go around on that one like CDC. WHO, and Trump but it is what it is and this is where we are at.

That said, how about looking at all data points? We should look at all countries and make a conclusion instead of selecting information like only on what we want to see. Ex. Sweden
The reason Sweden is an appropriate example to use is that they are the foremost example of a nation that did not take the "nuclear option" you seem to suggest is the singular factor in mitigating the damage impact of the virus.

Early testing is impossible when you are being told by officials at the point of origin, and by the experts of the international health organization, that there is nothing to worry about regarding human to human transmission. By the time they tell you the truth, it is way too late to stop the spread.

You can say Sweden's numbers are higher. But they themselves expected it.

The point is their numbers are not anywhere close to being as high as the experts in this field stated they would be without the nuclear option.

Is Sweden's rate of infection/death anywhere close to the models predicted by the experts in this field?

You know they are not.



aggie813
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OMG.....please stop. I have three words for you.
Let
It
Go!
Ex-liberalag12
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What? Let it go? This is a political board and to find the truth. Maybe you shouldn't come to this board??

Or maybe you can't handle another viewpoint.
Gig'em
aggie813
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Ha ha ha, yeah that's exactly it.
Ag_of_08
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AG
Old Army Metal said:

What I don't get is the logic based on the facts.

"We better do some drastic things so this doesn't kill millions of people!" --> we do drastic things --> it doesn't kill millions of people --> "Damn, what an overreaction!"

What am I missing here? Besides a lot of anecdotal evidence about people who think they had it January?


Trick was, a lot of the "millions dead" predictions INCLUDED the extreme things. Still incorrect, and poorly adhered to isolation is not explaining the drastically low results.

Even in countries in full "lockdown", the data did not dip that drastically lower from what I've seen...
texaglurkerguy
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New cases may be approximately linear now that we've been social distancing for ~5 weeks, but it was very much growing exponentially from mid March to end of March. The trajectory of deaths too was growing exponentially up until about a week ago.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
30wedge
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liberalag12 said:

What? Let it go? This is a political board and to find the truth. Maybe you shouldn't come to this board??

Or maybe you can't handle another viewpoint.
But you said it was science, not political, post this on a science board.
MouthBQ98
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AG
Old Army Metal said:

What I don't get is the logic based on the facts.

"We better do some drastic things so this doesn't kill millions of people!" --> we do drastic things --> it doesn't kill millions of people --> "Damn, what an overreaction!"

What am I missing here? Besides a lot of anecdotal evidence about people who think they had it January?


You can't infer, with no control group, that the actions had any material effect.
MassAggie97
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AG

Quote:

Can you prove the numbers would be high otherwise?
I can't fathom this viewpoint. At one point coronavirus became the leading daily cause of death in America (not sure if it is still there, but it probably is). That happened in mid-April after multiple weeks of social distancing and stay-at-home orders.

If you took introductory biology and know how a virus works, then the question above answers itself.
EKUAg
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Posted this on another thread. The idea was to not max out out services/ventilator usage like Italy had to. My understand of why all this was done.
Maroon and White always! EKU/TAMU
doubledog
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liberalag12 said:

the thinking of many on here making a conclusion that the virus is not as bad as we thought while using extreme mitigation data? The numbers are low due to these measures. How can an argument be made by using the data against your argument?
Many individuals are attempting to test the null hypothesis (statement that there is no relationship between two measured phenomena), when indeed that is impossible in this situation.
MouthBQ98
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Problem with testing is you have to have a test you know is accurate with regards to both false positives and negatives, that can be done in volume and with relatively fast testing. This was a new virus and we had no tests that verifiably met those qualifications for effective widespread testing. We could trust existing tests which were showing very mixed results in practice and had limited availability, or attempt to develop faster and more reliable tests.

The nations with the best resources are only now just starting to get there.
Sid Farkas
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So we're on about week 2 of thinking the shutdown was a completely bad idea and is being used to steal the next election, totally re-engineer political governance and commandeer all of our rights...

If this is true, why hasn't Trump-Pence-WH task force clearly, vociferously and directly implored us and all 50 governors to just throw open the doors and go back to our normal lives today?
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