maroonbeansnrice said:

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OK. This organization just needs to be abolished.

"Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization's Health Emergencies Program, suggested during a March 30 press conference that individuals infected with the Chinese Coronavirus should be removed from their homes to prevent further spread of the deadly disease."

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Does he want to concentrate them all to a camp of some kind?

Satellite of Love said:

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maroonbeansnrice said:

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OK. This organization just needs to be abolished.

"Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization's Health Emergencies Program, suggested during a March 30 press conference that individuals infected with the Chinese Coronavirus should be removed from their homes to prevent further spread of the deadly disease."

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Does he want to concentrate them all to a camp of some kind?

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That seems like it would get rid of a lot of intermediate solutions and get to the final one.

Exsurge Domine said:

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Oof, numbers are going to be nightmarish today. Just remember they're backwards looking.

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Should not be too surprising. This was expected to be the worst week in NYC. Let's hope that's the case.

Quote:

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Are obese people, 15% of adults in France, more likely to contract SARS-CoV-2 infection and are they more likely to develop severe forms? This is the double reason for concern of the doctors who take care of them. Regarding the severity, the data are still patchy, but in the field, the observation becomes obvious: individuals who are overweight or with obesity represent a high, or even very high, proportion of patients with Covid admitted to the services of resuscitation.

In Great Britain, out of a series of 196 patients hospitalized in intensive care, 32% were overweight (body mass index or BMI, ie the weight divided by the square of the height, between 25 and 30 kg / m 2 ) and 41% were obese (BMI over 30 kg / m 2 ), according to a report published on March 20. Statistics seem to be of the same order in France.

At the University Hospital Center (Nice), the average BMI of Covid patients currently in intensive care is 29 kg / m 2 , the normal build being between 18.5 and 25 kg / m 2 . "Among our 40 patients, 95% are overweight or obese, often with high blood pressure and associated diabetes," said resuscitation anesthesiologist Herv Quintard. At Montpellier University Hospital, 45% to 50% of Covid patients hospitalized in intensive care during the first weeks of the epidemic had severe rated obesity (BMI greater than 35 kg / m 2 ), even morbidly (BMI greater than 40 kg / m 2 ), also believes Professor Xavier Capdevila, head of the anesthesia resuscitation department of the Lapeyronie site .

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LaQuica said:

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Being obese has consequences to your overall health shocking news!

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Interesting information

nm

cone said:

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Horrible news for the US, Mexico, and a fat chunk of the Middle East.

TTT.

Some things to read:

[url=https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/01/navigating-covid-19-pandemic/][/url]https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/01/navigating-covid-19-pandemic/

[url=https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ddgry4k64oBZYfrHy/covid-19-points-of-leverage-travel-bans-and-eradication][/url]https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ddgry4k64oBZYfrHy/covid-19-points-of-leverage-travel-bans-and-eradication

[url=https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering-2.pdf][/url]https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering-2.pdf

[url=https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMe2007263][/url]https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMe2007263

Here's a story from New Orleans about an interesting way the state is tracking cases. They are taking people who would later test positive, tracking back to the date they first had symptoms, and then comparing that number to the confirmed number of cases on the same date.

On March 26th there were 2,305 confirmed cases in Louisiana, but 12,138 people who later test positive had symptoms on that date. That means the number of people that actually had the virus in Louisiana on March 26th was 5 times higher than the number of confirmed cases, and it doesn't even account for asymptotic cases.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_713daede-7922-11ea-8352-b3ab70fc397c.html

There was an article in the early days of March that did the same analysis for Wuhan and came up with a similar finding. I think there backwards-looking multiple was closer to 26x (if you believe the reporting from China).

A 2nd wave is hitting Singapore hard.

And now the new media message: Look at how ending quarantine leads to trouble. The post ran a similar article this morning. Media is transitioning from, you will die from Corona there is no cure to we cant open things up everyone will get sick.

High triglycerides?

High blood pressure leads to more fluid accumulation in lungs once damage starts in alveoli?

texagbeliever said:

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And now the new media message: Look at how ending quarantine leads to trouble. The post ran a similar article this morning. Media is transitioning from, you will die from Corona there is no cure to we cant open things up everyone will get sick.

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Isnt the potential for ongoing waves the next issue given there is no vaccine and we're not certain herd immunity can be achieved? What happens if it's determined you can become infected more than once?

I think concerns about multiple wave are appropriate but that doesnt necessarily mean lock-downs are the proper response.

It has to touch enough of us eventually. That there will be fewer total infections overall is false. Scientists and politicians have convinced themselves that they can control R0 by bending human behavior.

That's probably not the case. If you compare R0 between two viruses, you an see that one is worse than another. I've seen no data to conclude that you can control R0 over the long haul.

tysker said:

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texagbeliever said:

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And now the new media message: Look at how ending quarantine leads to trouble. The post ran a similar article this morning. Media is transitioning from, you will die from Corona there is no cure to we cant open things up everyone will get sick.

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Isnt the potential for ongoing waves the next issue given there is no vaccine and we're not certain herd immunity can be achieved? What happens if it's determined you can become infected more than once?

I think concerns about multiple wave are appropriate but that doesnt necessarily mean lock-downs are the proper response.

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You can be concerned about multiple waves but this is about a message to keep us locked down.

The longer the lock down continues the more economic harm is done. At some point the resulting impact of that economic hardship will (maybe has and continues to get worse) exceed the lives saved from he virus. If a vaccine is a year away or 2 years away the solution is to open things up and expect waves. People need to accept the given risk as part and parcel like they do with driving their car or inhaling twinkies.

I agree. It's ultimately about the message. Should we expect the media, our leaders, and the experts to honestly and openly disclose how and why they are asking us to respond to the threat and possible risk?

Media and leaders arent on the same team. Trump has to wait for the will of the people to end this through time and results. The media is trying to influence that will.

texagbeliever said:

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And now the new media message: Look at how ending quarantine leads to trouble. The post ran a similar article this morning. Media is transitioning from, you will die from Corona there is no cure to we cant open things up everyone will get sick.

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Singapore was one of the countries doing everything right. There is literally nothing more Singapore could have done. Their case tracking was the best in the world, they had high levels of testing, and had strict quarantine rules. That they are also experiencing a high case load is indicative of just how virulent this thing is and that everyone is only barely, just barely holding on.

I was hoping Singapore would pull through and move forward so that we would have an example to follow or look to, but this is a huge blow.

Singapore is NY 2.0. Very compact urban living in most areas with a lot of walking and public transportation, or private shuttles (trucks packed with workers inside strictly limited to capacity by labels on the trucks), and large labor dorms. Everyone pretty much eats and shops in indoor and outdoor malls and there is a lot of street food vendors and small restaurants everywhere and people don't cook as much.
They tried containment, but once it gets loose, it will go through there like mad.

let me get this straight... a 6' man is "normal" at 136 lbs, and overweight at 183 lbs?

obese at 220?

morbidly obese at under 260?

seems a bit conservative to me....

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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texagbeliever said:

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And now the new media message: Look at how ending quarantine leads to trouble. The post ran a similar article this morning. Media is transitioning from, you will die from Corona there is no cure to we cant open things up everyone will get sick.

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Singapore was one of the countries doing everything right. There is literally nothing more Singapore could have done. Their case tracking was the best in the world, they had high levels of testing, and had strict quarantine rules. That they are also experiencing a high case load is indicative of just how virulent this thing is and that everyone is only barely, just barely holding on.

I was hoping Singapore would pull through and move forward so that we would have an example to follow or look to, but this is a huge blow.

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I'm confused (not really...see definition of sarcasm). How is it terrible news that Singapore has a second wave of (only...my word choice) 142 new cases? We are talking about a heavily urbanized island with 6 million people (do the math) right next to China/with a high ethnic Chinese population that traveled back and forth between the two countries during the Lunar New Year.

Seriously? You are pushing the panic button over this? They have great medical care there and this truly is a minor blip on the radar screen. For economies to get rolling again, yes there will be a few new cases here and there, but good grief stop with the doom-saying already.

Nuclear Scramjet said:

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texagbeliever said:

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And now the new media message: Look at how ending quarantine leads to trouble. The post ran a similar article this morning. Media is transitioning from, you will die from Corona there is no cure to we cant open things up everyone will get sick.

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Singapore was one of the countries doing everything right. There is literally nothing more Singapore could have done. Their case tracking was the best in the world, they had high levels of testing, and had strict quarantine rules. That they are also experiencing a high case load is indicative of just how virulent this thing is and that everyone is only barely, just barely holding on.

I was hoping Singapore would pull through and move forward so that we would have an example to follow or look to, but this is a huge blow.

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If a virus has a relatively short seasonal window a SIP might work well, or if its only moderately contagious it can be snuffed out. But if its going to be an extremely long, highly infectious and tough virus we have pretty much proved getting to herd immunity the quickest will be the best future route. Purposely infecting (through volunteers) the least likely to get sick would have been a really smart move on this one it would seem.

I'm 5'9", work out like 5-6 days a week for 1-1.5 hours, lots of weights plus cardio. Eat pretty good. 162lb puts me at the top of the healthy range using BMI. Body fat around 12% on my last eval.

I used to weigh well north of 200, and at that weight I thought 185 surely was healthy. Comparatively? Yes. Absolutely? Nope. I still had a lot of extra body fat at 185. I think people have gotten used to most everyone around them being overweight and it is normalized.

BMI is not perfect but most Americans fit underneath the bell curve with a few outliers. I am 6'1" and when I was doing endurance events I was 160-165 which is considered healthy, now I am 210 with close to the same body fat and am considered overweight.

Most Americans are over-fat, look around. It is something like 60% have over 30% body fat.

maroonbeansnrice said:

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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texagbeliever said:

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And now the new media message: Look at how ending quarantine leads to trouble. The post ran a similar article this morning. Media is transitioning from, you will die from Corona there is no cure to we cant open things up everyone will get sick.

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Singapore was one of the countries doing everything right. There is literally nothing more Singapore could have done. Their case tracking was the best in the world, they had high levels of testing, and had strict quarantine rules. That they are also experiencing a high case load is indicative of just how virulent this thing is and that everyone is only barely, just barely holding on.

I was hoping Singapore would pull through and move forward so that we would have an example to follow or look to, but this is a huge blow.

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I'm confused (not really...see definition of sarcasm). How is it terrible news that Singapore has a second wave of (only...my word choice) 142 new cases? We are talking about a heavily urbanized island with 6 million people (do the math) right next to China/with a high ethnic Chinese population that traveled back and forth between the two countries during the Lunar New Year.

Seriously? You are pushing the panic button over this? They have great medical care there and this truly is a minor blip on the radar screen. For economies to get rolling again, yes there will be a few new cases here and there, but good grief stop with the doom-saying already.

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Because Singapore was doing everything they could have done. They went way above and beyond every other country and still cannot contain the spread. It does not bode well for any high density city at all.

P.U.T.U said:

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BMI is not perfect but most Americans fit underneath the bell curve with a few outliers. I am 6'1" and when I was doing endurance events I was 160-165 which is considered healthy, now I am 210 with close to the same body fat and am considered overweight.

Most Americans are over-fat, look around. It is something like 60% have over 30% body fat.

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BMI is antiquated garbage. Imagine making a Star-Wars movie today, using the same technology as they had in the late 70's when they made the original. That's what we are doing using BMI.

A lot of people are obese, and a lot of people are fat, and a lot of people are seriously unhealthy. We have easy, actual ways of measuring that shlt here in 2020. And we could do it tomorrow and then link health insurance actuarial rates and tax exemptions and all sorts of things to that accurate and detailed information.

But we don't. Because it might make Bubba or Leroy on Bertha feel bad.

Muh, the feelz.

Fat, out of shape, unhealthy people should be shamed and feel shamed. And their healthcare costs should not be subsidized. Just as we should "kick people out of poverty" as Franklin so eloquently stated, we should not subsidize slovenly, gluttonous lifestyles. We spend enormous amounts of GDP and incredible resources on health services for these people who should simply suffer in the stinking pile of dung they exist in.

And don't even try selling that "but some people can't help it" garbage. We're all full up here.

Ok. Rant over. What were we talking about again?

cbr said:

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let me get this straight... a 6' man is "normal" at 136 lbs, and overweight at 183 lbs?

obese at 220?

morbidly obese at under 260?

seems a bit conservative to me....

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BMI is based upon population averages and it is quite useful for anyone who doesn't workout, which means the vast majority of the population. People really do not have a clue about what a normal person should look like anymore since we are surrounded by fatties.

For people like me, who lift 4/5 days a week, it's worthless though. I'm defined as obese at 5'10", 235 lbs because I'm huge muscular wise despite having a 34" waist.