k2aggie07 said:

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Test numbers are declining again.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

Does that mean we're through the backlog?

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Probably not through backlogged tests. I don't think counting testing results are that important if we can count deaths. The tests are important during the virus spread primarily for quarantining the sick.

I wouldn't sweat the lacking test results.

US has gone from 109 to 780 deaths in exactly one week. Need that trend to break.

AgResearch said:

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TCTTS said:

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This is what happens when they are still clearing up the massive backlog of tests. We still haven't hit a 24-hour cycle of testing.

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Too bad they don't report the day the samples were taken, they just report when the results come back.

No sweat here. It does sort of imply the rise in cases is not only from the rise in testing.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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US has gone from 109 to 780 deaths in exactly one week. Need that trend to break.

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TOTAL Deaths. TOTAL.

Do you think we do 7x700 this week? 4,900 deaths IN ADDITION to the 700 we start with?? This week??

Or just another 700?

My money is on 700 more TOTAL. Making it 1400ish total. My original guess was 1200 on March 30.

id guess with all the shutdowns we will probably roll over peak single day for both deaths and cases in about a week. So probably ~2500 total by the end of the month, then it'll start to decline.

10 more days and let's get back to work!

BoydCrowder13 said:

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US has gone from 109 to 780 deaths in exactly one week. Need that trend to break.

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We had more deaths so far today at this time than total deaths as of last Tuesday.

Hopefully that trend slows.

k2aggie07 said:

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id guess with all the shutdowns we will probably roll over peak single day for both deaths and cases in about a week. So probably ~2500 total by the end of the month, then it'll start to decline.

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I don't think deaths get that high, but that's a reasonable number.

Far cry from a lot of the stuff we've been subjected to for the last week. This thing will kill less than the flu (in the US) when it's all said and done.

FbgTxAg said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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US has gone from 109 to 780 deaths in exactly one week. Need that trend to break.

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TOTAL Deaths. TOTAL.

Do you think we do 7x700 this week? 4,900 deaths IN ADDITION to the 700 we start with?? This week??

Or just another 700?

My money is on 700 more TOTAL. Making it 1400ish total. My original guess was 1200 on March 30.

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1400 is a real guess? We are at 780 right now. Had 230 deaths today and 140 yesterday. We will be at 1500 by Friday.

Where are you obtaining your death numbers?

BoydCrowder13 said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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US has gone from 109 to 780 deaths in exactly one week. Need that trend to break.

---

TOTAL Deaths. TOTAL.

Do you think we do 7x700 this week? 4,900 deaths IN ADDITION to the 700 we start with?? This week??

Or just another 700?

My money is on 700 more TOTAL. Making it 1400ish total. My original guess was 1200 on March 30.

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1400 is a real guess? We are at 780 right now. Had 230 deaths today and 140 yesterday. We will be at 1500 by Friday.

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1500 seems pretty high. That said, most of the country didn't start distancing or shutting down till Monday of last week. So would expect a rise till end of this weekend.

Wife of Chas Satterfield said:

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Where are you obtaining your death numbers?

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They aggregate stats from multiple sources.

BoydCrowder13 said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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US has gone from 109 to 780 deaths in exactly one week. Need that trend to break.

---

TOTAL Deaths. TOTAL.

Do you think we do 7x700 this week? 4,900 deaths IN ADDITION to the 700 we start with?? This week??

Or just another 700?

My money is on 700 more TOTAL. Making it 1400ish total. My original guess was 1200 on March 30.

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1400 is a real guess? We are at 780 right now. Had 230 deaths today and 140 yesterday. We will be at 1500 by Friday.

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Half the posters on this thread are stating their hopes as facts then get irrationally angry when any real facts are presented if it isn't 100% positive. They are not based in reality and should be ignored.

At this point it's pretty clear that massive intervention slows it. And that it's possible to keep it growing slowly after you get a handle on the first wave. The question now is can we actually execute that?

k2aggie07 said:

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At this point it's pretty clear that massive intervention slows it. And that it's possible to keep it growing slowly after you get a handle on the first wave. The question now is can we actually execute that?

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Test everyone possible for the infection and/or the antibodies. Then do better contact tracing and quarantines.

Police state in LA. This is madness.

Philip J Fry said:

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The data below was a result of the trend line produced last week. It's pretty clearly under predicting the death toll right now.

19-Mar 168
20-Mar 207
21-Mar 255
22-Mar 315
23-Mar 389
24-Mar 480<---We are here. Actual count is 775
25-Mar 592
26-Mar 731
27-Mar 901
28-Mar 1,112
29-Mar 1,372
30-Mar 1,693
31-Mar 2,089

Let's all please pray that God gives our doctors the knowledge they need to fight this thing.

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So you still think Texas will be as bad at NYC?

I hope we aren't, but in reality, we are about 5 days away from NY numbers with a similar slope. So...I think by this time next week, Texas will be averaging 100 deaths a day. NY will be pushing 10K for total deaths by March 31st. That said, the Texas data is still pretty spotty. There seems to be a lot of noise with it. The curve could be bending, or it TX could just be slow in reporting.

I should say, I still say "We" because Texas is home even though I reside in California...which is a cluster**** even without a pandemic.

were barely testing as it is, and nobody has a serological test yet (I don't think).

The thing about better contact tracing and quarantines is the methods used by govt to do that are sketchy af.

Philip J Fry said:

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I hope we aren't, but in reality, we are about 5 days away from NY numbers with a similar slope. So...I think by this time next week, Texas will be averaging 100 deaths a day. NY will be pushing 10K for total deaths by March 31st.

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We started social distancing ~ 8 days ago, our curves will flatten some before then.

Yeah, I was disappointed in today's results. I thought we had a clear bend yesterday. Today I'm wondering if the spring breakers are about to blow up all that hard work.

k2aggie07 said:

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were barely testing as it is, and nobody has a serological test yet (I don't think).

The thing about better contact tracing and quarantines is the methods used by govt to do that are sketchy af.

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Testing is improving daily.

We're developing serological tests now, other countries have them.

https://nypost-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/nypost.com/2020/03/24/mount-sinai-researchers-develop-test-for-coronavirus-antibodies/amp/?amp_js_v=a3&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15851040125449&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fnypost.com%2F2020%2F03%2F24%2Fmount-sinai-researchers-develop-test-for-coronavirus-antibodies%2F

We do contact tracing (or we did) before it blew up. Quarantine doesn't have to be big scary govt if people would listen. You test positive so 2 weeks at home, doesn't have to be forced

If our testing is improving the CDC is unaware. Their website shows a big drop in tests performed. Can't find their rear with both hands somehow. Not holding my breath for a lightning quick blood test.

The only places that have been successful at tracing post outbreak are S Korea, China, and Singapore. all three places that don't care about privacy, and the first two are definitely using cctv, phone geodata and purchasing records to trace your contacts. Without that Japan is cruising along at around 8% daily growth. Better than us but not controlled.

Right. It's taken a month to get us where we are with 300K tests. Now they think that we just need to get bloodwork from 300 million and we can go back to work?

Philip J Fry said:

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Right. It's taken a month to get us where we are with 300K tests. Now they think that we just need to get bloodwork from 300 million and we can go back to work?

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That's not what I said, no.

Redstone said:

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How would I know?

Nobody listen to me for anything medical.

Worth looking into. I hope something works

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****, man. What's the or price for pessimism and that's the price for optimism?

Ultimately you and very nearly none of the rest of us can do a ****ing thing. But amplifying good news can have a real impact on people's outlook and well-being.

Sorry. That's what Cuomo suggested today. Didn't intend on that being directed at you.

You are correct. The CDC website is extremely slow. This site is grabbing data from state/local websites

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/


Again, we did contract tracing before it blew up. Telling everyone you have been in contact with the past couple of weeks isn't that hard to do and it helps. Staying at home isn't either.


Anyway... Instead of poking holes in my ideas why not present your own....

FbgTxAg said:

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BoydCrowder13 said:

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US has gone from 109 to 780 deaths in exactly one week. Need that trend to break.

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TOTAL Deaths. TOTAL.

Do you think we do 7x700 this week? 4,900 deaths IN ADDITION to the 700 we start with?? This week??

Or just another 700?

My money is on 700 more TOTAL. Making it 1400ish total. My original guess was 1200 on March 30.

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Wow. I think NY alone gets to 700 deaths by Monday.

Georgia is claiming Atlanta ICUs are at capacity today... one day after the state started limiting public gatherings.

Im not arguing that we did contact tracing. I'm arguing that we sucked at it, because while we still thought we were doing a good job we had 2+ weeks of community spread.

And, that's not even saying its our fault. This disease is (apparently) highly infectious. Contact tracing assumes you can trace contacts by interviewing people. It also assumes you can blanket test to find people to quarantine and isolate.

Big brother data will be way more effective than any place that respects privacy.

Surely, we could do something similar with their permission. They could always turn the cdc down. But knowing exactly where those that were infected were would be hugely value able.

Why aren't we administering IV vitamin C?

Philip J Fry said:

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Surely, we could do something similar with their permission. They could always turn the cdc down. But knowing exactly where those that were infected were would be hugely value able.

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I'm not sure it would be worth giving the government my location data... I feel like I'd rather risk the virus.

Welcome to 1984!!!