I would like to see some data from how these new cases are contracting it seeing as how most of the country has been shut down for at least 2 weeks now.

Exsurge Domine said:

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Italy finally starting to roll over? 4790 new cases today and 600 deaths, would be the 2nd straight day of fairly drastic declines. I hope so

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I think so!

Exactly 2 weeks since their lockdown

everyone will need to wear some form of mask in public

that's the cheapest fastest way to getting to the new normal

PJYoung said:

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This is probably the best explanation for the 'it's just the flu' folks. (if there's any of those left)

Simple basic facts in a short video about why this should be taken deadly seriously.

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I guess I'm doing the math wrong (that's why I'm just a lowly attorney), but I don't see how his math works.

He says the average flu carrier will infect 1.4 persons. If you carry that to ten levels linearly, you're responsible for 14 people getting the flu.

Conversely COVID-19 is much more infections and average carrier will infect 3 persons. Carrying that forward linearly to ten levels, you're responsible for 59,000 infections.

By my math after 10 levels the flu would infect 21 people, and COVID-19 would infect 19,683. Those numbers clearly demonstrate the difference between the flu and COVID-19, but why skew the numbers? It's irresponsible. He really only did the flu at 9 levels and did COVID-19 at 11 levels, but there's no need for the misrepresentation.

1.3^10 = 13.7
3^10 = 59,049

Estimates for R0 of this disease (that number) seem to cluster around 2.2

2.2^10 = 2,656

From intense study of their society in popular media, I believe pasta and organized crime to be involved

TxLawDawg said:

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PJYoung said:

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This is probably the best explanation for the 'it's just the flu' folks. (if there's any of those left)

Simple basic facts in a short video about why this should be taken deadly seriously.

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I guess I'm doing the math wrong (that's why I'm just a lowly attorney), but I don't see how his math works.

He says the average flu carrier will infect 1.4 persons. If you carry that to ten levels linearly, you're responsible for 14 people getting the flu.

Conversely COVID-19 is much more infections and average carrier will infect 3 persons. Carrying that forward linearly to ten levels, you're responsible for 59,000 infections.

By my math after 10 levels the flu would infect 21 people, and COVID-19 would infect 19,683. Those numbers clearly demonstrate the difference between the flu and COVID-19, but why skew the numbers? It's irresponsible. He really only did the flu at 9 levels and did COVID-19 at 11 levels, but there's no need for the misrepresentation.

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No.

1.3^10=13.78585
1.4^10=28.92547

The answer for 3 to the 10th power is 59,049. To find this answer, multiply 10 threes together, like this: 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3 x 3.

https://www.paul.senate.gov/news/statement-senator-rand-paul

Rand Paul was completely asymptomatic.

Isn't he very high risk?

If you read his statement, he only got tested because he had part of his lung removed and had been traveling a lot.

k2aggie07 said:

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1.3^10 = 13.7
3^10 = 59,049

Estimates for R0 of this disease (that number) seem to cluster around 2.2

2.2^10 = 2,656

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Ok, like I said, I'm bad at math. If you need a litigator give me a call!

MouthBQ98 said:

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Once that stuff gets lose in a prison, there is no possibility to socially distance. They'll pretty much all get it within a week or two.

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Yes, and my question to that is, "And?"

Am I reading this right:

Worldometer

New York
Total Cases: 20,875
Total Deaths: 157
Rate: 0.75% death rate

And NY is "our Italy?"

Was Italy ever at this low a level of deaths? Seems like they've been near 8-10% the entire time...

All that tells you is NY is testing more people than Italy was at a comparable point in the outbreak. If you only do post-mortem tests, you'll have 100% death rate. Doesn't mean anything.

YouBet said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Once that stuff gets lose in a prison, there is no possibility to socially distance. They'll pretty much all get it within a week or two.

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Yes, and my question to that is, "And?"

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And they will be putting further drain on finite medical resources

ham98 said:

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YouBet said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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Once that stuff gets lose in a prison, there is no possibility to socially distance. They'll pretty much all get it within a week or two.

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Yes, and my question to that is, "And?"

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And they will be putting further drain on finite medical resources

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Exactly.

k2aggie07 said:

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All that tells you is NY is testing more people than Italy was at a comparable point in the outbreak. If you only do post-mortem tests, you'll have 100% death rate. Doesn't mean anything.

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Ok. So lets look at death rate.

NY is at 157
Italy was at 148 on March 5

So that would assume we are 18 days behind Italy? I thought it was 10?

Or, and more likely, we are on a very different curve than Italy is, even in NY.

Edit...

But further, I get what you're saying, but the death rate is still very high (nearly 10% ). So even if there was initial under testing, it should have declined as they ramped their testing up....but that's not happening.

Days behind is just an index to some equal point. It doesn't "mean" anything. So sure, by deaths, 18 behind is probably about right.

By cases per capita its about 10. But again, you have ascertainment bias in the case counts.



By curve do you mean deaths per cases? Total deaths?

NYC is earlier in to fatalities, but its growing by ~33%+ per day.

6
10
16
17
34
56
75

Austin is about to release a shelter in place order

That chart looks awesome, where is that from? I need to bookmark it.

Austin makes some sense given its density.

I'm not tying out to your NY numbers?

I took a look at Italy as well, and looks like their daily increases (outside of 3/21) is now under 20% and really closer to 17%.

cone said:

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everyone will need to wear some form of mask in public

that's the cheapest fastest way to getting to the new normal

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Yeah. I'm not so sure about that. I was in Singapore in late JAN and again early FEB. They told their citizenry to only wear a mask if they were sick. Conserves medical supplies and prevents potential spread. They are a country that had a lot of back-and-forth travel with China during the Lunar New Year. Yet unlike Italy, that had similar Chinese tourism during this period, they seem to have things under control. Maybe follow their lead?

You have to properly use a mask for prevention, and should dispose of them afterward if you venture out. This burns through a lot of masks quickly if you are trying to get to "normal."

Yes, their shutdown is working, and you see results at around a ~4-6 day lag.

Up until 10 days ago they were on the ~20-25% a day growth line.

We are on the 33% growth line now, hopefully on shutdown NYC day +4 (tomorrow) we'll start to see that roll off of the sharp line.

i'd rather follow Japan's lead

k2aggie07 said:

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Yes, their shutdown is working, and you see results at around a ~4-6 day lag.

Up until 10 days ago they were on the ~20-25% a day growth line.

We are on the 33% growth line now, hopefully on shutdown NYC day +4 (tomorrow) we'll start to see that roll off of the sharp line.

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I think we are on a sharp testing increase line, not a growth/spreading line. They are also testing people post-mortem if they had strong indicators. Both of these may make the numbers appear scarier than they really are.

Not being dismissive of the virus and the seriousness of it, but folks might want to keep that in mind.

cone said:

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i'd rather follow Japan's lead

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Yeah wtf? With their population density and no lockdown, I'd expect they'd be exploding.

South Africa is shutting down for 21 days. Is it because they are liberal?

cone said:

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i'd rather follow Japan's lead

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Went there too. Wore my mask whenever there were obvious sick people around me on flights, but wearing a mask everywhere all the time is not a panacea.

You can't find cases that aren't there.

So what's "scarier"? That the epidemic actually moves even faster, and we're sampling a huge population who is already infected? Or we're roughly tracking growth with expanded testing capacity?

Or better yet which one is more likely?

To see an increase in reported cases, with an increase in testing, and a decrease in positives all together this would have to be a truly explosive epidemic. The start point of this is fixed back in last November, remember. So is the R0 even higher than we have seen? If so, that's much more concerning.

Also, consider that death growth rate and reported case per capita growth rate are very closely tracking.

Japanese people wear masks to protect others when they themselves are sick, not to protect themselves.

what if asymptomatic/pauci-symptomatic cases have similar viral shedding loads to symptomatic cases

wear a mask to protect those around you

cone said:

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everyone will need to wear some form of mask in public

that's the cheapest fastest way to getting to the new normal

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That's not going to happen.

k2aggie07 said:

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Japanese people wear masks to protect others when they themselves are sick, not to protect themselves.

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Uh, read what I said about Singapore.