I Have Spoken said:

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Not sure I buy this data at all. I assume Mark is saying the same.

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Its not data; its modeling... Its not facts; its assumptions.

Its as if they have an outcome and solution set they are trying to achieve and are creating the models/data to reach that benchmark.

That spreadsheet just looks like a fancy version of what I did in excel. And I would never use that to guide public policy decisions.

Economic impact

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Texas exports $16 billion to China each year, and that is going to be severely impacted by lack of workers, not only at ports but those quarantined from normal everyday work, Larry said, noting that The Port of Houston had to close last week because of an employee testing positive for COVID-19.

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Amen. Brother.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

Democrats prove once again why I loathe them and their dramatics.

tysker said:

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Dallas ICU capacity is already filling up. Today. As in it's way above normal and this thing is barely getting started and we are still a good month away from peaking here.

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I guess a bunch has changed in the last few days in the metroplex...

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/health-care/2020/03/18/how-ready-are-dallas-fort-worth-hospitals-for-the-coming-surge/

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At the current time, we feel like we have the capacity" to deal with the virus, said Stephen Love, CEO of the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, whose members operate the region's hospitals. "And if the surge should exceed where we'd like it to be, we have contingency planning to help accommodate that."

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Argue with the Aggie ER doctor in DFW, not me

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We are not at max capacity at this point, but we are close. This disease is so delicate, we could tip the scale at any moment. I do believe 100% that the number of cases in Texas are under reported, and I personally am a reason for this.

I do not order COVID screening on patient's unless they are admitted inpatient or have severe underlying medical conditions (cancer patients undergoing chemo, HIV, etc). As in previous posts, the test does not change management. Anyone with mild symptoms or has been in contact with someone with URI symptoms should be quarantined for 14 days. A positive/negative test result may give an individual some peace of mind, however, I strongly believe this lack of testing is at the best interest of our health care providers and community as a whole.

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-Not gonna lie, I downplayed this. I was wrong. I thought it was gonna be slightly worse than our flu season. **** got real when I started seeing people in their 40s with no medical problems have to get intubated and placed on ventilators because of respiratory failure. Every day I am more and more afraid to go to work. I used to pride myself on being the coolest/calmest guy in the room, no matter what came through the door: heart attacks/strokes/gunshot wounds/guy who gets cut in half after getting run over by a train/cardiac arrest. None of that got my pulse above 80, but COVID scares the **** out of me.

-People who are actually sick enough to be admitted to the hospital come in about 4/5 days after symptoms begin, (8/9 days after exposure). Major cities in Texas started their quarantine on around March 17. If we are going to see real results it probably won't start until March 25-27ish. The "flattening the curve" is real. I hope we can do it, but time will tell.to be honest I think this is gonna take a lot more.

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https://texags.com/forums/84/topics/3101730

UncoverAg00 said:

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https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

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Good news.

UncoverAg00 said:

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https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

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1. This has been discussed with regards to the logistics curve. When the daily cases (slope) begins to consistently decline, we are at the inflection point and halfway done.

2. I wouldn't trust any models based on Chinese data.

PJYoung said:

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That would be a fun game to pass some time... name as many movies in this category as you can.

Jaws
The Day After Tomorrow
Volcano
Dante's Peak

PJYoung said:

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And this is important because?

I'm baffled by releasing prisoners. You have a captured, quarantined populace and you are going to free them into the wider world thereby increasing their chances of getting infected??

If they get infected in jail, at least they are already quarantined. And they were in jail for a reason anyway.

What is reasoning behind this?

Rapier108 said:

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PJYoung said:

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And this is important because?

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Who knows. He also started a thread about a hedge fund CEO saying we needed to shut everything down.

Fenrir said:

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Rapier108 said:

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PJYoung said:

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And this is important because?

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Who knows. He also started a thread about a hedge fund CEO saying we needed to shut everything down.

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I take it as a joke. The tweet is funny.

The thing that's easy to see is that the daily growth rate declines. The thing that is difficult to see is why. Spontaneous reaction by people like handwashing, less handshakes and hugs, less time spent out, less travel? Or government intervention? Or both?

I agree with him it'll all be ok. Even in the worst case, as bad as it is, sun will still rise, babies will be born, and we'll get on with things. And it's certainly good to have someone acting as a voice of calm. I just am not convinced that the decline happens without bigtime intervention. The slowdown he's talking about n China happened after the huge action in Wuhan, closing of all schools and most businesses...

I Have Spoken said:

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Not sure I buy this data at all. I assume Mark is saying the same.

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Correct.

Beat40 said:

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Fenrir said:

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Rapier108 said:

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PJYoung said:

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And this is important because?

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Who knows. He also started a thread about a hedge fund CEO saying we needed to shut everything down.

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I take it as a joke. The tweet is funny.

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Yes.

It's a the battle between public health and economic survival that we have been watching every day for the past several weeks. None of us ever thought we would be in a scene from Jaws.

That's certainly a different perspective and one that is needed.
Is there a difference between max capacity and ICU capacity? I thought there was. Can't patients be shifted to other locations/hospitals?

You also forgot the quote the Dr's biggest real-life (and potentially deadly) issue created by continual misinformation and fear mongering:

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-One major problem we are dealing with is the high number of patients coming to the ER because "they need to be tested for Corona", or "my doctor sent me to the ER to be tested". The media/government has given the false claim that we can test everyone. This is false. There are many problems with testing everyone for Covid19. First, we don't have the supplies. To be honest I think we have enough actual "tests" to do it, but with every test comes masks/gloves/face shields/N95 mask/personal protective equipment. Our nurses need to be fully protected to do the test. And wasting those resources on a patient who has a mild cough and low grade fever is a waste to our system.

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Improper information is depleting supplies and wasting the limited resources of already stressed system.

Ghostbusters

Texaggie7nine said:

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Ghostbusters

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"but if i'm right, you would have saved the lives of millions of registered voters..."

Bregxit said:

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Fun tidbit...my brother is a pilot for a regional airline. He just started his rotation today after eight days off and he sent me a copy of his manifest. Zero passengers. He is flying empty jets around for the next four days.

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Sounds like the bus drivers here in Tenerife Spain. We see them go around town constantly, with no one in the buses.

PJYoung said:

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Beat40 said:

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Fenrir said:

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Rapier108 said:

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PJYoung said:

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And this is important because?

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Who knows. He also started a thread about a hedge fund CEO saying we needed to shut everything down.

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I take it as a joke. The tweet is funny.

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Yes.

It's a the battle between public health and economic survival that we have been watching every day for the past several weeks. None of us ever thought we would be in a scene from Jaws.

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Would it frighten you to hear that the mayor from Jaws is still the mayor in Jaws 2?

They have a fixed schedule of flights, planes, crews, maintenance windows and crews, fuel usage and storage, interconnections, etc.

The airlines are not designed or prepared to scale to demand.

An AI with sophisticated real time data could possibly help coordinate all this mess and better optimize things, but you'd NEVER get competing carriers to settle on one cooperative system.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-florida-spring-break-test-positive-covid-19-college-students-not-social-distancing-university-of-tampa/

We are going to hear a lot of stories like this.

Once that stuff gets lose in a prison, there is no possibility to socially distance. They'll pretty much all get it within a week or two.

This is probably the best explanation for the 'it's just the flu' folks. (if there's any of those left)

Simple basic facts in a short video about why this should be taken deadly seriously.

Bregxit said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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They have a fixed schedule of flights, planes, crews, maintenance windows and crews, fuel usage and storage, interconnections, etc.

The airlines are not designed or prepared to scale to demand.

An AI with sophisticated real time data could possibly help coordinate all this mess and better optimize things, but you'd NEVER get competing carriers to settle on one cooperative system.

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It isn't really that at all. It is the rules about how routes are divvied up. If his company just stopped flying the routes because of low demand, those get taken away and handed to someone else.

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That's the kind of dumb shlt that should be suspended right now.

FbgTxAg said:

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Bregxit said:

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MouthBQ98 said:

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They have a fixed schedule of flights, planes, crews, maintenance windows and crews, fuel usage and storage, interconnections, etc.

The airlines are not designed or prepared to scale to demand.

An AI with sophisticated real time data could possibly help coordinate all this mess and better optimize things, but you'd NEVER get competing carriers to settle on one cooperative system.

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It isn't really that at all. It is the rules about how routes are divvied up. If his company just stopped flying the routes because of low demand, those get taken away and handed to someone else.

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That's the kind of dumb shlt that should be suspended right now.

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Europe suspended those rules at least 2 weeks ago.

Indiana joins the lists of states shut down until April 7